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Even though the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have many similarities, there are some big differences in their component weightings and performance. Namely, SMH allows more concentration than SOXX and SMH is holding up better than SOXX. SOXX already broke down on the price chart and SMH is at a critical juncture as its biggest component reports earnings this week.

SOXX) and SMH are the two largest semiconductor ETFs by AUM (assets under management). However, as I learned from this video at nAnalyze, their weighing rules are very different. In particular, SOXX caps the weighting of the top five stocks at 8% each and rebalances. SMH, on the other hand, caps the weight of the top three at 20% each and then rebalances. This higher threshold allows more room for a momentum run. It is little surprise that the top three holdings in SMH are Nvidia (23.66%), Taiwan Semiconductor (13.2%) and Broadcom (7.71%). The top three holding for SOXX are Nvidia (10.12%), Broadcom (8.77%) and Advanced Micro Devices (8%).

The PerfChart below shows the one-month percentage change for ten semiconductor stocks. It is a mixed bag with four up and six down. Nvidia (red bar) is up 1.5%, two are down double digits (AMD and Micron) and only one is up double digits (Marvell). Short-term, it has been a rough ride for the group.

The next chart shows SOXX breaking wedge support and its 200-day SMA with a sharp decline on October 31st. SOXX rebounded back into the wedge with a three-day election bounce and then fell below its late October low. This means the wedge break is in play with the first target zone in the 195 area. A close above 235 would call for a re-evaluation.  The indicator window shows relative performance using the  SOXX/RSP ratio  (SOXX divided by the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP)). This ratio has been below its 200-day SMA since late August, which means SOXX has been underperforming for around three months.

What is the significance of a rising wedge? A rising wedge is a bearish continuation pattern that marks a counter-trend bounce after a trend-changing decline. SOXX fell around 25% from mid July to early August and then retraced around 61.8% with the rising wedge to 240. Both the pattern and the retracement amount are typical for counter-trend bounces. The wedge break in October reversed the medium-term uptrend and signaled a continuation of the July-August decline. A 25% decline from the wedge high would target a move to the 180 area.

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The next chart shows SMH with a rising wedge, but the ETF has yet to break the October low (235) or the 200-day SMA. SMH did break the lower line of the wedge with a decline last week. Also notice that SMH is trading below the level it was trading at before the election. SMH is at a make or break level with Nvidia (NVDA) set to report earnings on Wednesday after the close. SMH stays bullish as long as 235 holds. A break would confirm the wedge and target a move to the 200 area.  

Stay on the right side of the trend with our weekly reports and videos. Our robust top-down approach started with broad market analysis to set the overall tone. We then drill to down to find ETFs and stocks with bullish setups within long-term uptrends.

Highlights from Recent Weekly Reports/Videos:

  • S&P 500 breadth remains strong and Nasdaq 100 breadth remains strong enough, but Nasdaq 100 is lagging because a third of its stocks are in long-term downtrends.
  • Fintech, Cybersecurity, Software and Cloud Computer ETFs were leading before the election surge and became very extended with the election surge. Time for some patience.
  • The Gold ETF became oversold for the first time this year.
  • Copper, Base Metals and Copper Miners failed hold their breakouts as they got hit post election.
  • The 10-yr Treasury Yield is on the rise as TLT moves sharply lower. What is the market telling us?

Click here to learn more and get two bonus reports!

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In this video, Dave outlines three tools he uses on the StockCharts platform to analyze sector rotation, from sector relative strength ratios to the powerful Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG). Dave shares how institutional investors think about sector rotation strategies, evaluating the current evidence to determine how money managers are allocating between offensive and defensive sectors following the US elections.

This video originally premiered on November 19, 2024. Watch on our dedicated David Keller page on StockCharts TV!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

There are times when the price action of a stock is worth analyzing further. This article is a follow-up to last week’s StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Report pick, Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock sold off significantly on Monday, and, in the blog post, I mentioned that I would buy PLTR if the stock price pulled back and reversed. I used the 15-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a support level, but was willing to tighten it if necessary.

It just so happened that PLTR sold off on Monday, after which I monitored the stock closely. Monday’s low reached the low of the previous five trading days and bounced from there (blue dashed horizontal line in the chart below). That level aligns with the 10-day EMA. On the daily chart, the last three candlestick bars have relatively large price ranges. The last bar shows more buying pressure. Is PLTR showing signs of moving higher? To answer this question, you need to look at the indicators.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF PALANTIR STOCK. After hitting a high on November 15, PLTR pulled back to the lows of the last few trading days (blue dashed line). This aligns with the 10-day exponential moving average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score remains at a high 99.5, indicating the stock is technically strong. Let’s turn to the other conditions for entering a long position in PLTR.

  • Volume. The total trading volume is insufficient to convince me the upward price move will be sustained.
  • Momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) is weakening, although slightly above 70.
  • Overbought/oversold. The full stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory, although the %K and %D lines have converged and are at similar levels.

On Tuesday, PLTR sold off in early trading along with the rest of the broader indexes. However, once things started to turn around, PLTR’s stock price rose, closing at $62.98. The price action doesn’t confirm a buy as of Tuesday’s close, although that could change tomorrow.

The Game Plan

  • If PLTR has upside momentum on Wednesday morning, with high volume, a rising RSI, and the stochastic in overbought territory, I will enter a long position. I’d use the support of the 10-day EMA as a stop loss level and exit the position if price crosses below the EMA.
  • If price doesn’t move much on Wednesday, I’d wait patiently for the opportune entry point.
  • If price shows downside movement (i.e. PLTR closes below the 10-day EMA or horizontal dashed blue line, the RSI and stochastic turn lower), I’d keep PLTR in my ChartList but revisit it later. Given that it is an AI-related stock that is actively traded, it’s not worth dismissing the stock.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey said the retailer would likely have to raise prices on some items if President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs take effect.

“We never want to raise prices,” he said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. “Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”

Rainey added that it’s too soon to say which products could cost more due to the tariffs.

Walmart’s CFO weighed in on the potential policy change as the company beat Wall Street’s earnings and sales expectations and hiked its full-year forecast.

Walmart’s comments are the latest warning from U.S. retail leaders about the potential blowback from from the duties. During Trump’s presidential campaign, he said he would impose a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports, including levies as high as 60% to 100% for goods from China.

In a statement earlier this month, National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay described across-the-board tariffs as “a tax on American families.” He said it “will drive inflation and price increases and will result in job losses.”

The prospect of increased prices comes as inflation has moderated in the U.S., after years of stretching consumers’ wallets.

Other retailers and brands have also spoken out about the potential drawbacks of the tariffs. E.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin told CNBC in an interview earlier this month that the company could be forced to raise prices if the higher duties take effect. Footwear maker Steve Madden said it will reduce the goods it imports from China by as much as 45% over the next year to try to avoid the financial impact.

The majority of goods Walmart sells are not at risk of tariffs. Rainey said about two-thirds of the items that Walmart sells are made, grown or assembled in the U.S.

Like other companies, Walmart has tried to import from different parts of the world rather than rely heavily on China or any one country, he said. Rainey added that levies placed during Trump’s first administration already caused the company to adjust.

“We’ve been living under a tariff environment for seven years, so we’re pretty familiar with that,” he said. “Tariffs, though, are inflationary for customers, so we want to work with suppliers and with our own private brand assortment to try to bring down prices.”

Like Walmart, Lowe’s said it’s also made moves to diversify its supply chain. The home improvement retailer addressed the potential levies as it reported earnings on Tuesday.

CFO Brandon Sink said about 40% of the company’s cost of goods sold comes from outside of the U.S., including direct imports and merchandise from national brands. He said tariffs “certainly would add product costs,” but added “timing and details remain uncertain at this point.”

“We believe we’re well prepared to respond when and if it does happen,” he said.

— CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Walmart raised its forecast on Tuesday, as its customers bought more discretionary merchandise, ordered more deliveries to their homes and started their holiday shopping.

The discounter now expects net sales will grow between 4.8% and 5.1% for the full year. That compares with its previous forecast for between 3.75% and 4.75% sales growth for the period. The updated outlook came as Walmart posted third-quarter earnings and revenue that beat expectations. 

In a CNBC interview, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said sales of general merchandise — outside of the grocery department — grew year over year for the second quarter in a row after declines for 11 straight quarters. Still, he said consumers are waiting to make those purchases until they see a compelling deal, especially as they pay more for food.

“We’re expecting this holiday period to be very consistent with that,” he said. “They’re focused on price and value.”

Here is what the big-box retailer reported for the period compared with Wall Street’s estimates, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Walmart shares climbed about 3% in early trading, hitting both a 52-week high and an all-time intraday high since it began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in Aug. 1972.

In the three-month period that ended Oct. 31, Walmart’s net income increased to $4.58 billion, or 57 cents per share, compared with $453 million, or 6 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue rose from $160.80 billion in the year-ago quarter. 

Comparable sales, an industry metric also known as same-store sales, jumped 5.3% for Walmart and 7% at Sam’s Club, excluding fuel.

Customers visited Walmart’s stores and website in the U.S. more and tended to spend more when they did compared with the year-ago quarter. Walmart U.S. transactions rose 3.1%, and average ticket increased by 2.1% year over year. 

E-commerce sales rose 22% in the U.S., with gains coming from curbside pickup and home delivery, along with growth in Walmart’s advertising and third-party marketplace businesses.

Walmart shoppers have also been willing to pay more to get their purchases faster, Rainey said. For the past two quarters, 30% of customer orders in the U.S. have come with an extra fee to get delivery within a shorter time frame, like within one hour or within three hours.

He said Walmart’s e-commerce business is “getting very close to profitability because we’re able to use some of the cost of delivery with these incremental fees that customers are willing to pay for convenience.”

Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, delivered its latest sales results and read on U.S. consumers as investors gauge sentiment and weigh the outlook for the most crucial shopping season of the year.

Retailers, including Walmart, are contending with a mixed bag of factors this holiday season. Inflation has moderated, with gas prices declining and grocery inflation remaining low year over year. Fears of a dragged-out process to determine the winner of the U.S. presidential race never materialized.

Yet President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal for tariffs on imports from China and other countries has fueled fresh concerns about prices rising again. The holiday season is also shorter this year and parts of the U.S. have had unseasonably warm weather, two dynamics that could hurt retailers.

Rainey said tariffs could force Walmart to increase prices, but said it’s too soon to say what merchandise may get more expensive. 

“We never want to raise prices,” he said. “Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”

He said about two-thirds of the items that Walmart sells are made, grown or assembled in the U.S., which reduces the tariff risk for those goods. And he added that Walmart, like other retailers, has been trying to diversify where it imports goods. 

“We’ve been living under a tariff environment for seven years, so we’re pretty familiar with that,” he said. “Tariffs, though, are inflationary for customers, so we want to work with suppliers and with our own private-brand assortment to try to bring down prices.”

Holiday spending is expected to increase this year, but at a modest rate. The National Retail Federation, a retail trade group, said it expects holiday spending in November and December to increase 2.5% to 3.5% compared with 2023, to a range between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. That would be lower than the 3.9% year-over-year jump from the 2022 to 2023 holiday season, when spending totaled $955.6 billion.

Rainey said the holiday period is “off to a pretty good start.” 

He said items like TVs, Apple AirPods, Beats headphones and even tires have been selling. On the other hand, clothing and other weather-dependent purchases like space heaters have been slower because of unseasonably warm weather in parts of the country.

Some of the general merchandise gains indicate that consumers are feeling relief from inflation, but some also have to do with Walmart’s strategy, he said. The company has deepened its assortment of toys, home goods and more through its third-party marketplace. 

As of Monday’s close, Walmart shares are up nearly 60% this year, more than the S&P 500′s approximately 24% gains during the same period. Walmart’s stock closed Monday at $84.08, bringing the company’s market value to $675.86 billion.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Comcast is expected to announce a plan Wednesday to spin off its cable networks into a separate company, two people familiar with the matter told NBC News.

The split would cleave off some of NBCUniversal’s best-known brands, including MSNBC, E!, Syfy, Golf Channel, USA, CNBC and Oxygen, which now face the same cord-cutting challenges as many other major cable channels.

The spinoff plan was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Comcast had announced during its quarterly earnings call in October that it was considering spinning off its cable networks.

President Mike Cavanagh said at the time that the company was exploring creating “a new, well-capitalized company owned by our shareholders and comprised of our strong portfolio of cable networks.” He added that NBCUniversal’s broadcast network NBC and the streaming service Peacock would remain with Comcast.

Comcast owns NBCUniversal, which is the parent company of NBC News. A spokesperson for Comcast declined to comment.

An employee walk past signage inside Comcast Corp. headquarters in Philadelphia on Oct. 24, 2016.Charles Mostoller / Bloomberg via Getty Images file

Comcast is moving forward with the decision as millions of customers exit the traditional pay TV bundle in favor of streaming. The company has been beefing up Peacock in recent years. Comcast said last month that Peacock’s paid-subscriber count jumped nearly 30% to 36 million year over year.

Bravo will remain part of Comcast’s NBCUniversal because its content is heavily featured on Peacock, CNBC reported.

Traditional broadcast networks remain cash cows. Comcast reported in October that third-quarter revenue for its media segment, which mainly comprises TV networks, was up nearly 37% to $8.23 billion, largely because of the Paris Olympics. Without the Summer Games, revenue was up almost 5%.

Comcast shares were up more than 2% in after-hours trading.

The spinoff will take roughly a year as the company figures out whether licensing agreements need to be put in place and whether MSNBC and CNBC will continue to work with NBC News, CNBC reported.

Mark Lazarus, the current chairman of NBCUniversal’s media group, will lead the new company, CNBC reported, while NBCUniversal’s chief financial officer, Anand Kini, will be the CFO and operating chief.

Comcast Chairman and CEO Brian Roberts will have a voting position in the new entity, but he won’t be on the board of directors, CNBC reported.

At NBCUniversal, Donna Langley, the current chief content officer, will become chairman of NBCUniversal Entertainment and Studios. Matt Strauss, the current head of the direct-to-consumer unit, which includes Peacock, will be chairman of NBCUniversal Media Group, overseeing sports, ad sales and distribution, CNBC reported.

Cesar Conde will continue to lead the NBCUniversal News Group as chairman — which includes oversight of NBC News, Telemundo and local TV stations — and will advise the company on areas of business growth. Executive Vice President Adam Miller will become NBCUniversal’s chief operating officer, CNBC reported.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

It’s certainly eye-catching: A group of multiracial, gender-bending models emerge from an elevator in cutting-edge makeup and bright-colored clothing to a techno-industrial beat into an austere, prismatic landscape.

But one thing is missing from the storied British carmaker Jaguar’s new rebrand: cars.

The spot has drawn some reactions online that range from puzzled to dismayed, with several commentators comparing the potential fallout to Bud Light’s use of a trans influencer in straying far afield from its core demographic.

One communications professional on X called the advertisement ‘disastrous’ for being overly focused on branding and not on the product itself.

‘Jaguar should be saying … some version of ‘our cars are engineered to the gills and go very very fast,” wrote Lulu Cheng Meservey, co-founder of Rostra PR group. ‘Art school grads simply aren’t associated with elite engineering ability, I’m sorry.’

In a press release accompanying its rebrand, Jaguar’s chief creative officer, Sir Gerry McGovern, explained the thinking behind the rollout.

‘New Jaguar is a brand built around exuberant modernism,’ he said. ‘It is imaginative, bold and artistic at every touchpoint. It is unique and fearless.’

Jaguar sold fewer than 67,000 cars in the entire world last year, approximately half the number it sold in the fiscal year incorporating the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Today there are just 122 Jaguar dealerships in the U.S., down from a peak of around 200, according to Car and Driver magazine.

The revamp is designed to turn things around, in part by introducing new emblems that will be featured on future Jaguar vehicles.

In the lead-up to the campaign’s debut, Jaguar announced it was discontinuing five models with “close to zero profitability,” CEO Adrian Mardell told investors this year, as it developed three new ultra-luxury electric vehicles, one of which is set to be unveiled at Miami’s Art Basel event next month.

In response to other X users asking why the ad didn’t feature any cars, Jaguar’s X account responded, “The story is unfolding. Stay tuned,” and “Think of this as a declaration of intent.”

A spokesperson for Jaguar Land Rover, today a unit of India-based Tata Motors, did not respond to a request for comment.

‘To bring back such a globally renowned brand we had to be fearless,’ Rawdon Glober, Jaguar’s managing director, said in the release. ‘Jaguar was always at its best when challenging convention. That ethos is seen in our new brand identity today and will be further revealed over the coming months. This is a complete reset. Jaguar is transformed to reclaim its originality and inspire a new generation. I am excited for the world to finally see Jaguar.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Friday’s anticipated boxing match between former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul will be remembered for more than its unique card.

The bout shown on Netflix was the most streamed global sporting event ever with 65 million live concurrent streams and 108 million total live viewers around the world, according to a Netflix release. The Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor fight before the Tyson-Paul match averaged 74 million live global viewers, the most watched professional women’s sporting event ever in the U.S. with 47 million viewers, the company said.

The event notched several other wins, including being the biggest boxing gate in history outside of Nevada.

Both Tyson and Paul made 10-figure paydays, according to Most Valuable Promotions co-founder Nakisa Bidarian, whose company promoted the fight. Serrano and Taylor received record pay for women’s boxing, he said.

This event was crucial for Netflix as it prepares for its Christmas Day stream of NFL games — its first time showing the most popular sport in the U.S. live. Viewers complained of buffering issues, but Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria said she is not concerned about the company’s ability to stream the NFL games.

Netflix is not the first streamer to wade into live sports. Amazon has carried Thursday Night Football games since 2022, and NBCUniversal’s Peacock streamed an NFL playoff game last season.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities saw the “Go” trend continue this week but we saw weaker aqua bars at the end of the week. Treasury bond prices painted strong purple “NoGo” bars as the weight of the evidence suggested the “NoGo” will continue. U.S. commodities painted aqua “Go” bars after flirting with amber “Go Fish” bars of uncertainty last week. The dollar showed no weakness this week with an uninterrupted string of bright blue “Go” bars.

$SPY Paints Weaker “Go” Bars after High

The GoNoGo chart below shows that after hitting a new higher high on strong blue “Go” bars we saw a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) signaling that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. Indeed, price fell in the following days, and GoNoGo Trend has painted weaker aqua bars. We will watch to see if price finds support at last month’s high. GoNoGo Oscillator also has fallen to test the zero line from above and we will watch to see if it finds support here as well. If the oscillator rallies back into positive territory we will look for price to make an attempt at another higher high.

A Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) has showed itself on the weekly chart after last week saw price fall into the end of the week. GoNoGo oscillator is in positive territory at a value of 3 and so no longer overbought. We will watch to see if it falls toward the zero line from here and if it does we will monitor for signs of support. GoNoGo Trend is painting strong blue “Go” bars as momentum remains positive confirming the direction of the trend.

Treasury Rates See Continued Strength

Treasury bond yields saw the “Go” trend continue this week and after a couple of weaker aqua bars the indicator showed a return to strength with bright blue bars all week as price rallied to challenge for new highs. GoNoGo Oscillator was perhaps responsible for the rally as we saw it bounce of the zero line into positive territory at the beginning of the week. Now, with GoNoGo Trend painting strong blue bars the oscillator is in positive territory at a value of 2.

The Dollar Remains at Elevated Levels

A week of strength propelled price to new highs again this week as GoNoGo Trend painted a string of unbroken bright blue “Go” bars. We are seeing a Go Countertrend Correction icon (red arrow) on the current bar as there is some waning momentum finally.  GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen out of overbought territory and is approaching the zero line. We will watch to see if it finds support as and when it gets there. If it rallies quickly back into positive territory we will see that as a sign of trend continuation for the greenback.

Today we explore the bullish sentiment that has taken SPX valuations to the moon. There are many out there that believe we have hit a plateau on prices that will continue permanently. We talk about the quote: “Stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau,’ Irving Fisher, Yale economist, told members of the Purchasing Agents Association at its monthly dinner meeting…” When did this quote come out? Carl reviews our earnings chart.

Carl looks at our signal tables to get a sense of the condition of the market. Then he discusses his outlook for the market as well as covering Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, among others.

After covering the market, Carl analyzes the short- and intermediate-term charts of the Magnificent Seven. NVDA reports earnings on November 18th.

Carl takes some time to look at Real Estate (XLRE) “under the hood” and discusses its nearing Dark Cross Neutral Signal that is on tap.

Erin covers sector rotation, comparing defensive sectors to aggressive sectors. She looks under the hood at Utilities which is a sector that is showing new momentum among the sectors. With a possible market decline continuing, this defensive area of the market could find favor and continue higher.

The pair finish with looking at viewer symbol requests with an eye toward the intermediate term today.

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01:03 “…a permanently high plateau”?

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23:12 Questions

28:06 Sector Rotation

40:06 Symbol Requests


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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