Thank You!

I’ve been writing at StockCharts.com for nearly 20 years now and many of you have supported my company, EarningsBeats.com, and I certainly want to show my appreciation for all of your loyalty. I believe we’re at a major crossroads in the stock market as the S&P 500 tests the recent price low from earlier in March. I called for a 2025 correction at our MarketVision 2025 event on January 4, 2025, to start the year and now it’s a reality. We decided at that time to add quarterly updates to our MarketVision series and our first update (Q1 update) is being held today at 5:30pm ET. I would like to invite everyone to join EarningsBeats.com and join me later today. We will record the event for those who cannot attend live.

Even if you decide not to join as an EB.com member, I do want to provide you my latest Weekly Market Report that we send out to our members at the start of every week, in addition to our Daily Market Report, which is published Tuesdays through Fridays.

I hope you enjoy!

MarketVision 2025 Q1 Update

Join us for our MarketVision 2025 Q1 update at 5:30pm ET today. This is an exclusive event for our annual members. If you’re already an annual member, room instructions will be sent to you in a separate email.

Not yet an annual member? Save $200 on membership TODAY ONLY. This offer will expire at the start of today’s event, so CLICK HERE for more information and details!

If you recall, on Saturday, January 4, 2025, I provided my annual forecast, which included my belief that we’d see a 10% on the S&P 500. That 10% correction is now in the rear view mirror, but what will happen from here? A lot has changed and we must remain objective as to where we might go. I’ll provide you my latest thoughts on this during today’s event.

I hope to see you at 5:30pm ET!

ChartLists Updated

The following ChartLists were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)

These ChartLists are available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at “support@earningsbeats.com”.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The monthly PPO and monthly RSI are both moving lower now, but remember, we have not ever seen a secular bear market that did not coincide with a negative monthly PPO and a monthly RSI below 40. I believe we’ll see this market weakness end LONG BEFORE we see either of those technical developments on the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Relative weakness in the QQQ:SPY, including and excluding gaps, has turned back down in a big way. That’s not what you want to see from a bullish perspective. We must remain on guard for potential short-term downside action, especially if key closing price support at 5521 fails on the S&P 500.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps (IWM) seem to be performing better than the aggressive, Mag 7 led NASDAQ 100, but that’s not saying a lot when you look at the IWM’s absolute performance in the bottom panel. Perhaps we’ll still get the small-cap run that we’ve been looking for over the past year, but it’ll likely need to be accompanied by a much more dovish Fed and with the short-term fed funds rate falling.

XLY:XLP

I mentioned last week that this chart was the biggest positive of the prior week. I suppose I now need to say it’s the biggest negative of last week because it did an abrupt about-face. It appears that the options expiration and oversold bounce we enjoyed for over a week have ended. We haven’t broken back to new relative lows, which would obviously be bearish, but we did back a lot of ground that we had previously made up. The XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important in the stock market, as far as I’m concerned. Watching it turn back down is not a great feeling, and a new upcoming relative low would only make it worse.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

When an elevated Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) sends a signal that we could see pain ahead, which is exactly the message sent recently as the VIX approached 30, I usually turn my attention to a rising 5-day SMA of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) to help identify market bottoms. Once the stock market turns emotionally and begins to show fear and panic, key price support levels tend to fail, and a high reading in the VIX, combined with a huge reversal on the S&P 500 (think capitulation), usually are typical ingredients to establish a key bottom.

We’re finally starting to see some higher daily CPCE readings, which suggests that options traders are growing much more nervous, and that’s a good thing if we’re going to try to carve out a meaningful market bottom. The last four days have seen readings of 0.65, 0.71, 0.72, and 0.68. That’s not quite high enough to grow more convinced of an impending bottom in stocks, but it’s light years better than what we’ve seen during any other recent market selloffs.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

We’re coming off an extended run higher in the benchmark S&P 500, where we topped on February 19. The long-term picture with sentiment is much different than it was 1.5 to 2 years ago. Back then, everyone was bearish, leading to an important market bottom and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. We could use more bearishness in options to set us up for another rally to all-time highs. Based on this chart, we’re not there yet.

Volatility ($VIX)

Here’s the current view of the VIX:

There was one key development in the VIX. From studying the VIX long-term, whenever a top has been reached, and significant selling ensues, the VIX typically spikes into the 20s or 30s before we see some sort of a rebound, like the one we saw recently. When these bounces have been part of bear market counter rallies, the VIX has never dropped below the 16-17 support range. So for those looking for this current correction to morph into a bear market, the hope is absolutely alive and kicking. My interpretation is that bear markets require a certain level of uncertainty and fear. The VIX remaining above that 16-17 level is our proof that the market environment for further selling still exists. In the above chart, the VIX fell to 17 and then quickly reversed and today hit a high of 24.80.

Based on this one signal alone, I cannot rule out further selling ahead and a possible cyclical bear market, as opposed to the much more palatable correction.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I viewed their long-term technical conditions as of one week ago:

• JPM – nice bounce off the recent 50-week SMA test
• BA – up more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; 190-192 likely to prove a difficult level to pierce
• FFIV – 20-week EMA test successful thus far
• MA – another with a 20-week SMA test holding
• GS – 10% bounce off its recent 50-week SMA test
• FDX – lengthy four-month decline finally tested, and held, price support near 220
• AAPL – weakness has not cleared best price support on the chart at 200 or just below
• CHRW – testing significant 95 level, where both price and 50-day SMA support reside
• JBHT – has fallen slightly beneath MAJOR support around 150
• STX – 85 support continues to hold
• HSY – did it just print a reverse right shoulder bottom on its weekly chart?
• DIS – trendless as weekly moving averages are not providing support or resistance
• MSCI – 3-year uptrend remains in play, though it’s been in a rough 6-7 week stretch
• SBUX – first critical price test at all-time high near 116 failed miserably; support resides at 85
• KRE – looking to establish short-term bottom at 55, with 2-year uptrend intact
• ED – showing strength in March for 9th time in 10 years, moving to new all-time high
• AJG – continues one of most consistent and dependable uptrends, trading just below all-time high
• NSC – testing 230 price support as transportation woes continue
• RHI – has broken recent price support in upper-50s; searching for new bottom with 4.4% dividend yield
• ADM – struggled again at 20-week EMA, 45 represents a significant test of long-term uptrend
• BG – approaching 4-year price support at 65 after failed test of declining 20-week EMA
• CVS – bottom now seems light years away as CVS trades nearly 1-year high
• IPG – how long can it hold onto multi-year price support at 26?
• HRL – still bound between price support at 27.50 and 20-week EMA resistance at 30.15
• DE – still trending above its rising 20-week EMA

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: None
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: March Chicago PMI
• Tuesday: March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, February construction spending, Feb JOLTS
• Wednesday: March ADP employment report, February factory orders
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March ISM services
• Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Mar 31: -7.16%
• Apr 1: +67.49%
• Apr 2: +17.08%
• Apr 3: -0.40%
• Apr 4: -17.99%
• Apr 5: +68.25%
• Apr 6: +45.38%
• Apr 7: -48.59%
• Apr 8: +62.64%
• Apr 9: +60.32%
• Apr 10: +47.37%
• Apr 11: -29.33%
• Apr 12: +63.88%
• Apr 13: -21.35%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Mar 31: +39.81%
• Apr 1: +83.56%
• Apr 2: +18.47%
• Apr 3: -86.48%
• Apr 4: -70.46%
• Apr 5: +112.55%
• Apr 6: +26.71%
• Apr 7: -38.23%
• Apr 8: +44.64%
• Apr 9: +60.64%
• Apr 10: +47.74%
• Apr 11: -51.08%
• Apr 12: +33.04%
• Apr 13: -0.08%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Mar 31: +78.83%
• Apr 1: +27.91%
• Apr 2: +18.08%
• Apr 3: -113.26%
• Apr 4: -75.19%
• Apr 5: +101.16
• Apr 6: +51.29%
• Apr 7: -90.50%
• Apr 8: +59.63%
• Apr 9: +137.22%
• Apr 10: +5.20%
• Apr 11: -80.66%
• Apr 12: +45.00%
• Apr 13: -37.09%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned last week, I’m sticking with my belief that the S&P 500 ultimate low in 2025 will mark a correction (less than 20% drop) rather than a bear market (more than 20% drop). But a bear market cannot be ruled out. Honestly, I think sentiment ($CPCE) must turn much more bearish. This morning, we had another gap down and early selling and this is beginning to take a toll on options traders as they’re now starting to grow more bearish. As an example, check out this morning’s equity-only put call ratio at Cboe.com:

These Cboe.com readings are very high and show a definite shift in sentiment among options traders. Intense selling pressure and lots of equity puts being traded, relative to equity calls, help to mark bottoms.

Here are a few things to consider in the week ahead:

• The Rebound. It ended rather quickly last week. I mentioned it’s a rebound until it isn’t. We moved right up to 5782 price resistance on the S&P 500 and the bears took over.
• The Roll Over. We’re now in rollover mode, but the S&P 500 quickly lost 300 points from 5782 to today’s early low of 5488, which tested key short-term price support from March 13, where we printed a low close of 5521. Can the bulls hold onto support?
• Nonfarm payrolls. This report will be out on Friday morning and current expectations are for March jobs (131,000) to fall below the February number of 151,000. Also, unemployment is expected to move up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Should any of these numbers come in weaker than expected, the Fed could be in a box and Wall Street could sense it by selling off hard.
• Sentiment. As I’ve said before, once the VIX moves beyond 20, not many good things happen to stocks. Selling can escalate very quickly as market makers go “on vacation.” Many times, we don’t find a bottom until retail options traders begin buying puts hand over fist. That could be underway right now.
• Rotation. Rotation led us to where we are now, we need to continue to monitor where the money is going.
• Seasonality. There is one real positive here. We’re about to move from the “2nd half of Q1”, which historically has produced annualized returns of +5.05% (4 percentage points BELOW the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%), to the “1st half of Q2”, which historically has produced annualized returns of 13.08% (4 percentage points ABOVE the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%). This half-quarter trails only the 1st and 2nd halves of Q4 in terms of half-quarter performance.
• Manipulation. Yep, it’s starting again, just like it did during 2022’s cyclical bear market, which ultimately marked a critical S&P 500 bottom. We’ve done a ton of research on intraday trading behavior on our key indices, and many market-moving stocks like the Mag 7. Our Excel spreadsheet has been made available to all ANNUAL members, where you can see the manipulation for yourself.

Happy trading!

Tom

Finding stocks that show promising opportunities can be challenging in a market that goes up and down based on news headlines. But, it’s possible.

In this video, watch how Grayson Roze and David Keller, CMT use the tools available in StockCharts to find stocks that are breaking out, displaying relative strength setups, and exhibiting moving average signals.

Be sure to watch it. You may find some hidden gems! 

This video premiered on March 31, 2025.

As precious metals surge on safe-haven demand, some gold mining companies are following suit. One standout is AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), which has been riding this upward momentum.

Recently, AU showed up among the Top 10 Large Cap category in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports, indicating that it’s among the top large-cap stocks showing bullish technical strength across multiple timeframes and indicators.

FIGURE 1. SCREENSHOT OF SCTR REPORTS ON MONDAY MORNING. AU, which held the #6 spot at the time of the screenshot, had an ultra-bullish SCTR score of 99.3.

Unless you follow gold miners, you may not know much about AU. But here’s the skinny: AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. is a global independent mining company that’s incorporated in the UK but headquartered in Colorado, US. 

AU’s recent surge can be attributed to several factors, including rising gold prices, strong financials, recent strategic acquisitions, revised dividend policy, and general investor shift to safe havens.

If you’re unfamiliar with the stock, a good starting point is to compare its relative performance against its industry (Dow Jones Gold Mining Index or $DJUSPM) and spot gold price performance ($GOLD). The PerfChart below displays AU’s performance relative to the industry and gold’s price over the past year.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF AU, DJ GOLD MINING INDEX, AND GOLD. AU began outperforming its overall industry and gold’s performance in late January.

AU and $DJUSPM have shown volatile, back-and-forth price action over the past 12 months, but AU began taking the lead in late January, surpassing both in comparative terms.

Now that you have a comparative view, let’s take a longer-term look at AU’s price action. Here’s a monthly chart spanning 20 years. Why so long? I had to go this far back to plot long-term resistance levels.

FIGURE 3. MONTHLY CHART OF AU. The stock just broke above a resistance range between $35 and $37, but there are plenty more technical headwinds above.

AU appears to be soaring at relatively high valuations and is running up against a major resistance range between $42 and $45. What adds weight to the long-term bullish case of AU’s current valuations is the rising Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a long-term uptrend projection (26 months) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading that is rising but not quite overbought. Another thing to note, which is interesting, is that every time the RSI crossed 70, AU reversed to the downside. 

Despite this bullish projection, keep in mind that AU could still pull back—while remaining in a long-term uptrend—and decline to as low as $22.50 before rebounding. This level marks a key swing low and aligns with the top of the Ichimoku Cloud’s support range.

That gives us a long-term perspective. What about the near term? Might there be a favorable entry point for those looking to go long, or is AU technically overbought? 

Let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF AU. Pay attention to the most recent swing high and low.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPI) indicates strong bullish breadth as over 89% of gold mining stocks are rallying and triggering P&F buy signals. However, this can also indicate potential overbought levels, and the RSI supports this reading, as it, too, is over the 70 threshold (caveat: a stock can continue to rally for an extended period despite being overbought).

Volume-wise, note how accumulation preceded AU’s rally as far back as September when the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) shown in orange began rising above AU’s price as if the smart money began accumulating the stock as it continued to decline before rebounding. AU currently trades above the ADL line, which could signal a near-term pullback. 

Pay attention to AU’s price relative to its most recent swing high (magenta dotted line) and swing low (blue dotted line). I plotted a ZigZag line to make these swing points clear. 

• If AU pulls back, it may find support at the swing high near $33. What’s more important is that the stock price must hold above the swing low near $28 to sustain the current uptrend.
• Expect resistance between $42 and $45 (as mentioned earlier when analyzing the monthly chart).

What Should You Do?

If you’re already in AU and not necessarily committed to the long term, consider tightening your stops or scaling out partial profits as the stock approaches the $42–$45 resistance zone. The RSI above 70 and elevated breadth readings across the gold mining sector suggest short-term overbought conditions, making a pullback likely—even within a broader uptrend. Watch for any bearish divergences or volume reversals, and use a bounce from $28 or $33 to potentially add to your position.

If you’re looking to enter, patience may pay. A retracement to the $33 support zone—or the swing low at $28 if sentiment reverses sharply—could offer a more favorable risk-reward entry. Keep in mind that a break below $28 would weaken the current technical structure and could open the door to a deeper correction, potentially down to $22.50.

For long-term investors, AU still holds promise. The rising monthly Ichimoku Cloud you saw in the monthly chart, strong accumulation trends, and outperformance vs. peers support a bullish longer-term case. But stay disciplined, and keep an ear on economic developments that may have a longer-term impact. Consider using a tiered entry approach rather than chasing highs.

In short, AU’s long-term momentum is intact, but don’t ignore the warning signs of a short-term cooldown. Stay tactical—ride the trend, but always protect your capital!

At the Close

While AU continues to ride the wave of bullish sentiment in the gold sector, a few of its technical indicators, appearing seemingly stretched, hint at a possible short-term breather. Long-term prospects remain intact, but near-term caution is warranted.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Did you know you can generate more than a 5% monthly yield by utilizing an options strategy? 

In this educational video, Tony Zhang walks you through an income-generating options strategy using the OptionsPlay Strategy Center on StockCharts.com.

Learn how to select the right stocks, identify strike prices and expiration dates, analyze various outcomes, and manage your trades.

Armed with this knowledge, you will never want to miss out on the opportunity to generate income from your portfolio. 

This video premiered on April 1, 2025.

Financials take the lead.

No changes in the composition of the top 5 this week, and only one change of position within the top 5.

Financials (XLF) leapfrogged to the number one position, sending Communication Services (XLC) to the #3 position. Energy (XLE) remains #2 while Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) remain in positions #4 and #5.

Let’s examine the details and see what the Relative Rotation Graphs tell us about the current market dynamics.

Sector Lineup

1. (3) Financials – (XLF)*
2. (2) Energy – (XLE)
3. (1) Communication Services – (XLC)*
4. (4) Utilities – (XLU)
5. (5) Healthcare – (XLV)
6. (6) Industrials – (XLI)
7. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
8. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
10. (10) Materials – (XLB)
11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Weekly RRG: A Tale of Three Leaders

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph now shows three sectors firmly planted inside the leading quadrant.

XLF has rotated back into leadership after a brief sojourn, while Communication Services (XLC) maintains its strong position. Energy (XLE) is the latest entrant, crossing over into leading with a positive RRG heading—a trajectory that bodes well for continued outperformance.

Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV)—our fourth and fifth-ranked sectors—currently reside in the improving quadrant. However, their strong RRG headings suggest they’ll likely leap into leading territory in the coming weeks. It’s worth noting that Health Care is flexing its muscles with the highest RS momentum value among all 11 sectors.

On the flip side, we’re seeing only two sectors with negative RRG headings—the same culprits as last week. Technology (XLK) is pushing further into the lagging quadrant, while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is rapidly approaching a crossover from weakening to lagging. This persistent weakness in these typically high-flying sectors is something to keep an eye on as it coincides with general market weakness.

Daily RRG: Short-Term Shifts

Zooming in on the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term rotations. Financials are holding steady in the leading quadrant with a neutral heading—there has been little movement over the past week.

Energy, which boasts the highest RS ratio, is losing some momentum. However, given its elevated RS ratio, this is likely just a temporary setback.

Utilities and Health Care are showing some interesting moves on the daily chart. XLU is currently in the weakening quadrant with a negative heading, but XLV is starting to curl back up—a positive sign that aligns with its weekly chart momentum.

XLC’s daily tail is painting an intriguing picture. It’s barely inside the lagging quadrant, but its positive heading pointing towards leading suggests it may soon start supporting the positive direction we see on the weekly chart.

In the bottom half of the rankings, we see some weekly weakness confirmations. Technology is rolling over in the improving quadrant, while sectors like industrials and materials are rotating from leading to weakening, all of which aligns with their lower positions in the portfolio ranking.

Financials (XLF)

XLF has bounced off support around 47, but the price chart still looks precarious.

The relative strength picture, however, is much more encouraging. We’re seeing a clear uptrend in the raw RS line, which is pulling both RRG lines higher. Keep an eye on that 47 level as key price support.

Energy (XLE)

Energy is currently trading in a range between roughly 84-85 and 98.

The real action is in the relative strength- we’re seeing a breakout from a falling channel, which is now pulling both RRG lines above 100.

This is what’s driving XLE’s move into the leading quadrant.

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC is holding above support around 94, but only just.

A break below 93-94 could trigger more downside.

Relative strength still looks good, but the raw RS line is at the top of its rising trend channel. The high RS ratio reading gives some wiggle room, but it’s a situation to monitor closely.

Utilities (XLU)

Utilities remain stuck in a trading range, which is keeping its raw RS line range-bound as well.

It’s strong enough to keep the RRG lines rising, but we’ll need to see a relative strength breakout to push XLU into the leading quadrant.

Health Care (XLV)

Health Care is bumping up against resistance near 150 and remains range-bound.

A potential head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, but support is still a ways off around 135.

Relative strength is pushing against resistance, and with both RRG lines rising, XLV looks poised to cross into the leading quadrant soon.

Portfolio Performance Update

After last week’s hiccup, the RRG portfolio has not only erased its underperformance but actually flipped to outperformance.

As of last week, the portfolio stands at -4.86% YTD, compared to the S&P 500’s -4.96%. That’s a reversal from a 1.4% underperformance to a 10 basis point outperformance — not too shabby for a week’s work.

The market is sending plenty of mixed signals, but the sector rotation story is becoming clearer. Financials are stepping up, Energy is making moves, and the traditionally defensive sectors are showing strength. Meanwhile, Tech and Consumer Discretionary continue to lag—a trend that could have significant implications if it persists.

These rotations can shift quickly, so stay nimble and keep your eyes on the charts. The market never sleeps, and neither should your analysis.

#StayAlert –Julius

It was an ugly close to another roller-coaster trading week as the stock market struggled with several moving parts. Wednesday’s Evening Doji Star in the S&P 500 ($SPX) showed its power. The trading week didn’t end on a pretty note. 

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) all closed lower and are trading below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). And the selloff is across the board. It’s not concentrated in the heavily weighted stocks. 

The headwinds: Auto tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and hotter-than-expected PCE data. These have raised investor fear once again. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked higher on Friday, closing at 21.65.

From a sector perspective, Utilities was the only S&P sector that closed in the green on Friday, which reiterates defensive investor sentiment. This could continue for as long as investors worry about inflation and weakening U.S. economic growth. In addition to defensive sectors, other areas of the market show some bullish strength. 

What Are Investors Eyeing? 

Bond prices are rising. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is trading above its 50- and 100-day SMA. A break above the 200-day SMA would set a positive tone for bond prices although if past price action is of any value, TLT didn’t have much success the last couple of times it crossed above the 200-day. It could be different this time.

FIGURE 1. BOND PRICES SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE. Bond prices are now starting to rise. Will we see an RSI above 70 when TLT crosses above its 200-day simple moving average? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel is above 50. The last couple of times TLT crossed above its 200-day SMA, RSI failed to cross above 70, indicating a lack of momentum. However, if TLT crosses above its 200-day SMA and coincides with an RSI cross above 70, that could be an alert for a gain in momentum. 

Bonds were starting to trend higher after hitting their January lows but that uptrend consolidated from early March. There needs to be an upside follow-through for an uptrend to resume in bonds. There’s still time for it to play out but keep your eyes on this chart for the next few weeks.

Gold and silver prices have also been on a tear. Gold hit an all-time high on Friday while silver pulled back on Friday after Thursday’s price spike. Overall, the uptrend is still intact in both metals.

If you’re a regular reader of our ChartWatchers Newsletter, you’ll recognize the chart below which looks at the performance of various asset classes.  

FIGURE 2. PERFCHART OF DIFFERENT MARKETS. Gold and silver have outperformed most other asset groups. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Note how gold and silver prices are outperforming equities.  

Last but not least, let’s analyze the performance of the automobile sector, the most impacted industry group this week. Automobile stocks continue to slide. The daily chart of the Dow Jones US Automobiles Index ($DJUSAU) below displays a clear picture of the state of the industry. 

FIGURE 3. THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY. Things aren’t looking great for the automobile industry. After attempting to cross above the 200-day SMA, the Dow Jones Automobiles Index fell and is trending lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

After a healthy run in the second half of 2024, the industry has been in a steep decline, with any attempts of a rally being short-lived. On March 25, $DJUSAU crossed above its 200-day SMA but failed to hold above it. There’ll be more tariff news between now and April 2. So be prepared for more volatility in the automobile industry.  

The Bottom Line

Q1 has been pretty dismal, mainly due to tariff policies. There’s more to come. With “Liberation Day” approaching, expect more volatility in the stock market. There’s also the March jobs report on Friday. Equity futures are trading lower ahead of Monday’s open. 

We’ll end with a chart that every investor should be monitoring closely as we get through the next few months—a three-year weekly chart of the S&P 500. Feel free to save this to your ChartLists.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The index attempted to move beyond its July and August highs but didn’t succeed. With more tariff news on the horizon, will the S&P 500 succeed or will it move toward its March highs? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Thank You!

I’ve been writing at StockCharts.com for nearly 20 years now and many of you have supported my company, EarningsBeats.com, and I certainly want to show my appreciation for all of your loyalty. I believe we’re at a major crossroads in the stock market as the S&P 500 tests the recent price low from earlier in March. I called for a 2025 correction at our MarketVision 2025 event on January 4, 2025, to start the year and now it’s a reality. We decided at that time to add quarterly updates to our MarketVision series and our first update (Q1 update) is being held today at 5:30pm ET. I would like to invite everyone to join EarningsBeats.com and join me later today. We will record the event for those who cannot attend live.

Even if you decide not to join as an EB.com member, I do want to provide you my latest Weekly Market Report that we send out to our members at the start of every week, in addition to our Daily Market Report, which is published Tuesdays through Fridays.

I hope you enjoy!

MarketVision 2025 Q1 Update

Join us for our MarketVision 2025 Q1 update at 5:30pm ET today. This is an exclusive event for our annual members. If you’re already an annual member, room instructions will be sent to you in a separate email.

Not yet an annual member? Save $200 on membership TODAY ONLY. This offer will expire at the start of today’s event, so CLICK HERE for more information and details!

If you recall, on Saturday, January 4, 2025, I provided my annual forecast, which included my belief that we’d see a 10% on the S&P 500. That 10% correction is now in the rear view mirror, but what will happen from here? A lot has changed and we must remain objective as to where we might go. I’ll provide you my latest thoughts on this during today’s event.

I hope to see you at 5:30pm ET!

ChartLists Updated

The following ChartLists were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)

These ChartLists are available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at “support@earningsbeats.com”.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The monthly PPO and monthly RSI are both moving lower now, but remember, we have not ever seen a secular bear market that did not coincide with a negative monthly PPO and a monthly RSI below 40. I believe we’ll see this market weakness end LONG BEFORE we see either of those technical developments on the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Relative weakness in the QQQ:SPY, including and excluding gaps, has turned back down in a big way. That’s not what you want to see from a bullish perspective. We must remain on guard for potential short-term downside action, especially if key closing price support at 5521 fails on the S&P 500.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps (IWM) seem to be performing better than the aggressive, Mag 7 led NASDAQ 100, but that’s not saying a lot when you look at the IWM’s absolute performance in the bottom panel. Perhaps we’ll still get the small-cap run that we’ve been looking for over the past year, but it’ll likely need to be accompanied by a much more dovish Fed and with the short-term fed funds rate falling.

XLY:XLP

I mentioned last week that this chart was the biggest positive of the prior week. I suppose I now need to say it’s the biggest negative of last week because it did an abrupt about-face. It appears that the options expiration and oversold bounce we enjoyed for over a week have ended. We haven’t broken back to new relative lows, which would obviously be bearish, but we did back a lot of ground that we had previously made up. The XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important in the stock market, as far as I’m concerned. Watching it turn back down is not a great feeling, and a new upcoming relative low would only make it worse.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

When an elevated Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) sends a signal that we could see pain ahead, which is exactly the message sent recently as the VIX approached 30, I usually turn my attention to a rising 5-day SMA of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) to help identify market bottoms. Once the stock market turns emotionally and begins to show fear and panic, key price support levels tend to fail, and a high reading in the VIX, combined with a huge reversal on the S&P 500 (think capitulation), usually are typical ingredients to establish a key bottom.

We’re finally starting to see some higher daily CPCE readings, which suggests that options traders are growing much more nervous, and that’s a good thing if we’re going to try to carve out a meaningful market bottom. The last four days have seen readings of 0.65, 0.71, 0.72, and 0.68. That’s not quite high enough to grow more convinced of an impending bottom in stocks, but it’s light years better than what we’ve seen during any other recent market selloffs.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

We’re coming off an extended run higher in the benchmark S&P 500, where we topped on February 19. The long-term picture with sentiment is much different than it was 1.5 to 2 years ago. Back then, everyone was bearish, leading to an important market bottom and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. We could use more bearishness in options to set us up for another rally to all-time highs. Based on this chart, we’re not there yet.

Volatility ($VIX)

Here’s the current view of the VIX:

There was one key development in the VIX. From studying the VIX long-term, whenever a top has been reached, and significant selling ensues, the VIX typically spikes into the 20s or 30s before we see some sort of a rebound, like the one we saw recently. When these bounces have been part of bear market counter rallies, the VIX has never dropped below the 16-17 support range. So for those looking for this current correction to morph into a bear market, the hope is absolutely alive and kicking. My interpretation is that bear markets require a certain level of uncertainty and fear. The VIX remaining above that 16-17 level is our proof that the market environment for further selling still exists. In the above chart, the VIX fell to 17 and then quickly reversed and today hit a high of 24.80.

Based on this one signal alone, I cannot rule out further selling ahead and a possible cyclical bear market, as opposed to the much more palatable correction.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I viewed their long-term technical conditions as of one week ago:

• JPM – nice bounce off the recent 50-week SMA test
• BA – up more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; 190-192 likely to prove a difficult level to pierce
• FFIV – 20-week EMA test successful thus far
• MA – another with a 20-week SMA test holding
• GS – 10% bounce off its recent 50-week SMA test
• FDX – lengthy four-month decline finally tested, and held, price support near 220
• AAPL – weakness has not cleared best price support on the chart at 200 or just below
• CHRW – testing significant 95 level, where both price and 50-day SMA support reside
• JBHT – has fallen slightly beneath MAJOR support around 150
• STX – 85 support continues to hold
• HSY – did it just print a reverse right shoulder bottom on its weekly chart?
• DIS – trendless as weekly moving averages are not providing support or resistance
• MSCI – 3-year uptrend remains in play, though it’s been in a rough 6-7 week stretch
• SBUX – first critical price test at all-time high near 116 failed miserably; support resides at 85
• KRE – looking to establish short-term bottom at 55, with 2-year uptrend intact
• ED – showing strength in March for 9th time in 10 years, moving to new all-time high
• AJG – continues one of most consistent and dependable uptrends, trading just below all-time high
• NSC – testing 230 price support as transportation woes continue
• RHI – has broken recent price support in upper-50s; searching for new bottom with 4.4% dividend yield
• ADM – struggled again at 20-week EMA, 45 represents a significant test of long-term uptrend
• BG – approaching 4-year price support at 65 after failed test of declining 20-week EMA
• CVS – bottom now seems light years away as CVS trades nearly 1-year high
• IPG – how long can it hold onto multi-year price support at 26?
• HRL – still bound between price support at 27.50 and 20-week EMA resistance at 30.15
• DE – still trending above its rising 20-week EMA

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: None
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: March Chicago PMI
• Tuesday: March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, February construction spending, Feb JOLTS
• Wednesday: March ADP employment report, February factory orders
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March ISM services
• Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Mar 31: -7.16%
• Apr 1: +67.49%
• Apr 2: +17.08%
• Apr 3: -0.40%
• Apr 4: -17.99%
• Apr 5: +68.25%
• Apr 6: +45.38%
• Apr 7: -48.59%
• Apr 8: +62.64%
• Apr 9: +60.32%
• Apr 10: +47.37%
• Apr 11: -29.33%
• Apr 12: +63.88%
• Apr 13: -21.35%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Mar 31: +39.81%
• Apr 1: +83.56%
• Apr 2: +18.47%
• Apr 3: -86.48%
• Apr 4: -70.46%
• Apr 5: +112.55%
• Apr 6: +26.71%
• Apr 7: -38.23%
• Apr 8: +44.64%
• Apr 9: +60.64%
• Apr 10: +47.74%
• Apr 11: -51.08%
• Apr 12: +33.04%
• Apr 13: -0.08%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Mar 31: +78.83%
• Apr 1: +27.91%
• Apr 2: +18.08%
• Apr 3: -113.26%
• Apr 4: -75.19%
• Apr 5: +101.16
• Apr 6: +51.29%
• Apr 7: -90.50%
• Apr 8: +59.63%
• Apr 9: +137.22%
• Apr 10: +5.20%
• Apr 11: -80.66%
• Apr 12: +45.00%
• Apr 13: -37.09%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned last week, I’m sticking with my belief that the S&P 500 ultimate low in 2025 will mark a correction (less than 20% drop) rather than a bear market (more than 20% drop). But a bear market cannot be ruled out. Honestly, I think sentiment ($CPCE) must turn much more bearish. This morning, we had another gap down and early selling and this is beginning to take a toll on options traders as they’re now starting to grow more bearish. As an example, check out this morning’s equity-only put call ratio at Cboe.com:

These Cboe.com readings are very high and show a definite shift in sentiment among options traders. Intense selling pressure and lots of equity puts being traded, relative to equity calls, help to mark bottoms.

Here are a few things to consider in the week ahead:

• The Rebound. It ended rather quickly last week. I mentioned it’s a rebound until it isn’t. We moved right up to 5782 price resistance on the S&P 500 and the bears took over.
• The Roll Over. We’re now in rollover mode, but the S&P 500 quickly lost 300 points from 5782 to today’s early low of 5488, which tested key short-term price support from March 13, where we printed a low close of 5521. Can the bulls hold onto support?
• Nonfarm payrolls. This report will be out on Friday morning and current expectations are for March jobs (131,000) to fall below the February number of 151,000. Also, unemployment is expected to move up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Should any of these numbers come in weaker than expected, the Fed could be in a box and Wall Street could sense it by selling off hard.
• Sentiment. As I’ve said before, once the VIX moves beyond 20, not many good things happen to stocks. Selling can escalate very quickly as market makers go “on vacation.” Many times, we don’t find a bottom until retail options traders begin buying puts hand over fist. That could be underway right now.
• Rotation. Rotation led us to where we are now, we need to continue to monitor where the money is going.
• Seasonality. There is one real positive here. We’re about to move from the “2nd half of Q1”, which historically has produced annualized returns of +5.05% (4 percentage points BELOW the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%), to the “1st half of Q2”, which historically has produced annualized returns of 13.08% (4 percentage points ABOVE the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%). This half-quarter trails only the 1st and 2nd halves of Q4 in terms of half-quarter performance.
• Manipulation. Yep, it’s starting again, just like it did during 2022’s cyclical bear market, which ultimately marked a critical S&P 500 bottom. We’ve done a ton of research on intraday trading behavior on our key indices, and many market-moving stocks like the Mag 7. Our Excel spreadsheet has been made available to all ANNUAL members, where you can see the manipulation for yourself.

Happy trading!

Tom