Even with an impressive run of relative performance thus far in 2025, some investors still remain skeptical of gold’s uptrend. Let’s look at the performance of gold through three different angles, all using the best practices of technical analysis.

Gold Has Dramatically Outperformed in 2025

Whether you think gold has merit as a store of value, as a safe haven, or for no reason at all, there is no denying that gold has registered much stronger returns than stocks so far in 2025.

The S&P 500 index is now down about 4.0% for the year, even with Friday’s strong finish to the week. The Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) is down 12.4%, while the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down about 6.2%. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), meanwhile, is up another 13.7% in 2025 after an exceptionally strong 2024.

There have been a number of times over my career where people have pushed back when gold is doing well. They have claimed that it’s just an anomaly, or that it shouldn’t go higher because of some particular reason.  My answer is always to bring up the chart and remind us both, “The market doesn’t care what we think!”

Gold Prices Remain in a Primary Uptrend

Let’s break down gold’s outperformance in greater detail using a daily chart of GLD.  At a time when many stocks and ETFs have broken below moving average support, gold stands out as remaining above two upward-sloping moving averages.

GLD has featured two clear consolidation phases since the end of 2023, one from April to July of 2024, and the other from October through December 2024. In both cases, the ETF bounced off price support a number of times before eventually resolving these patterns to the upside. Consolidations are very common in long-term bullish phases. What’s important is that the uptrend continues after the price exits the range, as we’ve often seen recently with GLD.

We can also apply our proprietary Market Trend Model to gold prices, which can help us to better compare the trend in gold to other ETFs and indexes. We can see that the GLD is currently bullish on all three time frames, compared to the S&P 500, which is now bearish on the short-term and medium-term time frames. When stocks are in a confirmed downtrend, I prefer to look for things that remain in primary uptrends, and gold fits the bill.

Gold Stocks Are Catching Up to Physical Gold

I’m often asked whether it’s better to play gold using an ETF that holds physical gold versus one that offers exposure to gold stocks. By focusing on the relative performance of gold stocks compared to gold futures, we can perhaps identify where opportunities could lie going forward.

Here we’re showing the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), along with RSI and then the relative performance of GDX vs. GLD.  When that ratio is sloping higher, gold stocks are outperforming physical gold. Going into the end of last year, the GLD was outperforming as gold stocks experienced a significant pullback. But, so far in 2025, we’ve noticed a strong reversal in relative performance which shows gold stocks are performing better.

The GDX is now testing its October 2024 high around $43.50, and we would consider a confirmed break above this level as an additional sign that gold stocks could continue a “catch up trade” versus physical gold. And with so many gold stocks starting to appear in the top decile of the StockCharts Technical Rating (SCTR), we see this as an area of emerging strength in the weeks to come.

Looking for our daily market recap show? CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT runs every trading day at 5pm ET over on our YouTube channel!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Disclosures: Author holds position in GLD.

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) has had a rough year, to say the least. The stock is trading near its 52-week lows and 65% below its 52-week highs. The company’s CEO resigned last July and, since then, shares have struggled to rebound.

The discount retailer that caters to low-income shoppers rallied 10% after last quarter’s results and quickly gave back all those gains. It’s hoping to follow in the footsteps of its peer, Dollar General (DG), which guided higher than expectations and rallied last week.

Technically, shares are in a long-term downtrend that has accelerated headed into this week’s numbers. Every rally has been an opportunity to sell, as shares have consistently trended below its downward-sloping 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Shares are oversold based on their relative strength index (RSI), but the stock has remained oversold for weeks. It appears closer to a tradable near-term bottom, where there is support for a bigger sell-off to around $65.

As a result of this, risk/reward favors the bulls. Look for shares to rally back into the downtrend channel on a near-term rally. That would take shares into the $78 to $85 area. Sadly, each rally has been a great opportunity to sell. There is much resistance to get through any upswing to signal that this is a good long-term buy, but, for the swing trader, a rally may be in order.

Nike, Inc. (NKE) shares have been mired in a two-year slump. Shares have fallen after the last five quarterly reports with an average loss of -9%. They have traded lower after seven of the last 8 releases. Shareholders are hoping that the second full quarter under CEO Elliot Hill’s leadership will start the much-needed turnaround for investors.

The sneaker giant expects slower sales and a decline in numbers thanks to markdowns to clear out unpopular inventory. However, hope springs eternal. Have new shoe models grown in popularity? Has Mr. Hill started to stem the tide of weaker growth? We shall find out when they report after the close on Thursday.

Technically, since breaking below the 200-day moving average in December 2023, shares have consistently stayed below this key moving average. There was hope that a recent announcement with Kim Kardashian’s Skims could lead to the breakout. It did lift for a couple of days, but couldn’t sustain upward momentum, so the bears won out again. 

There is a small silver lining in the chart above, though. When shares hit a recent low, the RSI reading had a bullish divergence. This means price made a new low, but the momentum indicator made a higher low. This could be a change demonstrating that the worst may be over.

To the upside, expect a test with that pesky 200-day moving average again. Look for a break above there and a run to recent highs at $82.62. If it fails at that level, you want to see old resistance in the 200-day act as support. Then the bulls may be able to take control. To the downside, you do not want to see any new lows, Look for support at the $68 to $70 level. The risk/reward set-up favors the bulls taking a shot here and keeping sell stops nearby if it fails. 

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) has experienced some rather large moves after reporting earnings over the last four quarters. Last Q, it dropped -16.2%; before that, it gained +14.7%, lost -7.1%, and rallied +14.1%. So it’s not surprising to see that a move of +/-10.4% is expected when it reports after the close on Thursday.

Investors will focus on a few fundamental stories. Projected gross margins might decline according to their guidance. That could be a headwind. Data center revenue has been a strength; let’s see if it continues. Then, of course, there’s the all-important guidance—will they mention demand metrics and address potential tariff concerns?

Technically, shares continue to be mired in a neutral, yet very tradable, range. Going back to its August lows, shares have found a solid level of support around $85. Shares have tested that level multiple times and held. On the first three occasions, shares rallied back to $110. Recently, they have struggled to get that high, and the downward sloping 200-day now acts as resistance.

If shares were to gap higher, watch two strong levels of resistance. The first is the 200-day at $105.20, while the second, and most important, is just above $110 to $114. It may take a miraculous guide to break and stay above these key resistance levels.

As to the downside, we have seen $85 stand the test of time again and again. The more often it is tested, the more likely it is to fail. So there are clear lines in the sand of this rectangular formation. The measured move from this pattern is for a move of +/- $25. That would give upside and downside targets of $135 and $60, respectively. Clearly, it’s a coin flip at the moment from a risk/reward perspective. We will need more information to see how this resolves. For now, keep trading the channel.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive video, legendary trader Larry Williams breaks down why the stock market is primed for a rally, using technical analysis, fundamental signals, and seasonal trends. He explains how tariffs, crude oil, and cyclical patterns could fuel the next big market surge, plus stocks to watch during this potential upswing. Don’t miss these key insights from a market expert!

This video originally premiered on March 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated Larry Williams page!

Previously recorded videos from Larry are available at this link.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe revisits a critical ADX signal that gave a major market warning, explaining the pattern and a new low ADX setup to watch. He breaks down SPY and QQQ support zones, sector rotation, and reviews viewer symbol requests including T, WBD, and more. Don’t miss this technical analysis update to stay ahead of the market!

This video was originally published on March 12, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Problem: How can you tell if an index is about to reverse—even before the price reflects it?

Answer: Look at what’s happening internally within the index—in other words, analyze market breadth, also called “participation.”

Spotting a Rebound in a Plunging Market

Like most investors, you look to the three major indices—DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq—to get an immediate glimpse of the market. But when all three are cratering, like most of the sessions we’ve seen this week and last, you often won’t find any early hint of a rebound or reversal from the indices themselves.

Indices can be misleading because they don’t reflect the movement of individual stocks within them. They are market-cap-weighted, meaning a few big stocks can skew the picture, masking broader market trends.

What this means is that, if you’re looking for signs that the market may be turning more bullish amid a wave of selling, you need to look at what’s happening internally. Are all stocks and sectors following the decline, or are some starting to rise—even if their movements aren’t reflected in the index price?

Enter the McClellan Oscillator

The McClellan Oscillator is one of many market breadth indicators that track the internal movements of the stock market and, by extension, the indices that represent them. Breadth indicators can help confirm trends and, more importantly, expose underlying weaknesses in rallies or hidden strengths in declines, helping you spot potential reversals before they appear in price.

Specifically, here’s a nutshell description of how the McClellan Oscillator works:

• It measures market breadth, tracking advancing vs. declining stocks to give a clear picture of overall participation.
• A reading above zero indicates bullish momentum (more advancing than declining stocks).
• A reading below zero suggests bearish momentum (more declining than advancing stocks).
• Crossovers help identify trend reversals. A crossover above or below zero can confirm a shift in market momentum.
• Divergences also suggest potential reversals early on. If the oscillator moves opposite the index, it may signal that a reversal may be underway.

The last two points are what I will focus on in this article. Given the current tariff-fueled plunge, are any of the three indices showing signs of a potential reversal? And, if not, what should you look out for?

Let’s start with the S&P 500 ($SPX). Here’s a daily chart. For a more expansive breadth context, I am including the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) to show yet another angle on market breadth.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Buyers are jumping in at the key 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. But does the overall participation support this reversal thesis?

Anticipating a downside target, I drew a Fibonacci Retracement from the (2024) August low to the December high. Bullish traders anticipating a rebound at the 61.8% level have started to enter their positions.

From a market breadth perspective, it’s too early to tell whether this key support level will signal a reversal. The NYSE McClellan Oscillator (a large portion of S&P 500 stocks trade on the NYSE) shows that declining shares within the index outweigh the advancing shares. The BPI reading, on the other hand, confirms this reading, as fewer than 50% of S&P 500 stocks are generating Point & Figure buy signals, a condition favoring the bears as it also signals technical weakness.

What to look for in the coming sessions: Notice the pink lines on both the chart and the McClellan indicator window signaling divergences. Look for bullish divergences or a crossover above the zero line in the coming sessions. However, don’t treat these as automatic buy signals. Instead, they suggest potential bullish conditions, suggesting you construct an entry setup if one presents itself.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE NASDAQ 100. Declines are starting to stabilize as buyers enter the market, but it may be too soon to call a reversal.

The Nasdaq 100 shows a similar Fib Retracement reaction as in the S&P 500 example above; namely, buyers are jumping in at the 61.8% level.

The McClellan Oscillator remains bearish, but declines appear to be stabilizing (see pink lines). Notably, communications and healthcare stocks are slowing the drop. While not a bullish reversal signal, this shift could lead to a turnaround depending on how other sectors react in the coming sessions. Meanwhile, the BPI at 35%, tells you that the current price environment continues to favor the bears.

What to look for in the coming sessions. Similar to the previous S&P 500 example, keep an eye on the McClellan Oscillator readings for any bullish divergence or a crossover above the zero line. Remember, these signals indicate improving market breadth and potential upward momentum, but they are not automatic buy signals. Once a positive shift occurs, it’s going to require further confirmation from price action, volume, and other technical indicators before you jump into a trade.

A Two-Step Process

What I just demonstrated was a simple two-step process. Feel free to tweak it according to your preference. When a major selloff is underway…

1. You need a means to forecast downside price targets. I used Fibonacci Retracements to set my downside targets (you can use other indicators to project potential support and resistance levels).
2. Use a breadth indicator like the McClellan Oscillator to gauge how prices react to those downside targets. Namely, divergences and crossovers should alert you to the possibility of a reversal.
3. Add other indicators to confirm the reversal when it happens. Don’t rely solely on one indicator; check price action, volume, and momentum, and have an exit plan in case it doesn’t follow through.

At the Close

Here’s the main point. You can use the McClellan Oscillator to anticipate turns in an index before it tips its hand, so to speak. It reveals shifts in market participation before such shifts become evident in prices. While major indices can be misleading due to their market-cap weighting, the oscillator focuses on breadth and momentum across all stocks and sectors comprising an entire index or market.

As of now, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show no clear signs of a bullish reversal. However, when a shift does occur, the McClellan Oscillator may be among the breadth indicators to signal it first—so keep an eye on it.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe revisits a critical ADX signal that gave a major market warning, explaining the pattern and a new low ADX setup to watch. He breaks down SPY and QQQ support zones, sector rotation, and reviews viewer symbol requests including T, WBD, and more. Don’t miss this technical analysis update to stay ahead of the market!

This video was originally published on March 12, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.