Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The “Go” trend in equities has proved to be resilient as we saw strong blue “Go” bars return this week. Treasury bond prices remained in a “NoGo” although this week we did see weaker pink bars as the trend showed weakness. U.S. commodities painted strong blue “Go” bars this entire week as the “Go” trend returned. The dollar has looked strong for some time and we see no signs of this changing as GoNoGo Trend paints another week of uninterrupted strong blue bars.
$SPY Paints Strong Blue “Go” Bars as Strength Returns
The GoNoGo chart below shows that price rallied nicely after falling from its Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow). Price found support at prior high levels and we looked at the oscillator panel to see if GoNoGo Oscillator would find support at the zero line. It did after a few bars of a GoNoGo Squeeze and is now rebounding into positive territory. With momentum resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend we will watch for price to make an attempt at new highs.
The “Go” trend has remained strong on the longer term chart as we see strong blue bars that followed the Go Countertrend Correction Icon and price has returned to test levels that would be new highs. GoNoGo Oscillator has remained in positive territory and is at a value of 3. With momentum confirming trend direction we will look to see if price can consolidate at these levels and move higher.
Treasury Rates Show Weakness but Remain in “Go” Trend
Treasury bond yields painted weaker aqua bars this week as price fell from recent highs. The “Go” trend remains in place but this is a show of weakness. We turn our attention to the oscillator panel and note that it is testing the zero line from above. We will watch to see if it finds support at this level which it should if the trend is to remain healthy.
The Dollar Hit New High Again
Another week of strong blue “Go” bars sees the greenback make another higher high. We are now seeing a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) as momentum wanes a touch. With momentum falling and at a value of 3, it will be important to watch to see if it finds support at zero if it gets there. We will need to see momentum stay at or above the zero level for the “Go” trend to remain healthy.
As cyber threats continue to escalate globally, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) has emerged as a leading cybersecurity firm poised for significant growth. After an outage earlier this year, CrowdStrike’s stock price has lagged for much of 2024, but recent stock price action suggests that CRWD is potentially gearing up to break out. In this analysis, we’ll explore the bullish signals from both technical and fundamental perspectives and outline an optimal options strategy to capitalize on this opportunity—all identified instantly using the OptionsPlay Strategy Center within StockCharts.com.
Examining CRWD’s chart reveals several compelling bullish indicators:
Recovery above gap level of $335. CRWD has rebounded above the critical gap level of $335, previously affected by a failed release that impacted Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). This recovery signifies a strong reversal in market sentiment.
Breakout and retest of support. The stock has broken above this important resistance level and successfully retested it as support.
Momentum towards 52-week highs. With the successful retest, CrowdStrike’s stock price shows signs of potentially retesting its 52-week highs around $400 and breaking out above it.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF CROWDSTRIKE STOCK PRICE. CRWD has broken above an important resistance level and could retest its 52-week high, potentially even breaking above it.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
CrowdStrike’s fundamentals further bolster the bullish thesis:
Robust revenue growth. In its Q2 FY2025 earnings report dated August 30, 2024, CrowdStrike reported revenue of $963.9 million, marking a 32% year-over-year increase.
Significant ARR increase. The company’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew by 32% to $3.86 billion, with $217.6 million added in the quarter.
Improved profitability. CrowdStrike achieved a net income of $47 million, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency.
Despite the challenges posed by the outage, CrowdStrike’s strong revenue and ARR growth demonstrate its resilience and robust market demand for its cybersecurity solutions. The company’s focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings positions it well for long-term growth in the competitive cybersecurity landscape.
Options Strategy for CrowdStrike
To capitalize on this bullish outlook, the OptionsPlay Strategy Center suggests selling the January 3, 2025, $370/$340 Put Vertical for a $12.80 credit per share.
Trade Structure of the Put Vertical
Sell: January 3, 2025, $370 put option at $21.40
Buy: January 3, 2025, $340 Put Option at $8.60
Net Credit: $1,280 per contract
FIGURE 2. RISK CURVE AND TRADE DETAILS OF CROWDSTRIKE PUT VERTICAL STRATEGY. The put vertical strategy allows you to profit even if CrowdStrike’s stock price moves sideways.Image source: OptionsPlay Strategy Center in StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Trade Details
Maximum Potential Reward: $1,280
Maximum Potential Risk: $1,720
Breakeven Point: $357.20
Probability of Profit: 56.30%
This bullish strategy, known as a bull put spread, profits if CrowdStrike’s stock price remains above the breakeven point by the expiration date.
This strategy benefits from time decay and allows for profit even if the stock remains stagnant or rises moderately. It provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio while aligning with the bullish outlook on CrowdStrike.
Unlock Real-Time Trade Ideas
This bullish opportunity in CrowdStrike stock was swiftly identified using the OptionsPlay Strategy Center within StockCharts.com. The platform automatically scanned the market, highlighted CRWD as a strong candidate for continued upward movement, and structured the optimal options trade in real-time (see below).
FIGURE 3. CRWD SCREENED AS BULLISH OUTPERFORMER. By selecting Bullish Outperformance from the Technical Scan dropdown menu and Bull Put Strategy from the Strategy dropdown menu, CRWD was screened as a candidate for further upside.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
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It’s a short trading week, and the stock market is rallying. It’s clear that Wall Street liked President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.
The broader stock market indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closing at a new record. The S&P 500 ($SPX) tried to meet its all-time high, but didn’t. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), meanwhile, is still struggling to close above its November 7 low of 19084.
Small caps were the best performers. The S&P 500 Small Cap Index ($SML) rose 1.80%, and the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) was close behind, rising 1.45%. Both indexes hit a new record high.
Overall, it was a green day in the equities world, as can be seen by Monday’s MarketCarpet.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPET FOR NOVEMBER 25, 2024. Overall, it’s a sea of green except for the Energy sector.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The bond market breathed a sigh of relief—Treasury yields fell, and bond prices rose. The iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) rose about 2.59% on Monday. But the gap up in price is just a blip in the weekly chart of TLT (see below).
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF TLT. Monday’s gap up isn’t enough to change the big picture. TLT is still trading below its 21-day EMA and close to its 2023 low. It’s a long way from a bullish trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
TLT is still trading below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). It’s also close to its 2023 low. One day doesn’t make a trend, but it’s worth watching this chart closely.
While stocks and bond prices rose, other assets that have been rallying lately saw significant declines. Gold prices, oil, and the US dollar experienced steep declines on Monday. Some news surfaced that a peace deal may be in the works between Israel and Hezbollah. With that in mind, investors may be less worried about geopolitical risks and have switched to a risk-off sentiment.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SPDR GOLD SHARES ETF (GLD). After bouncing off its November low, GLD looked like it was headed toward its all-time high. Monday’s price action broke that move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
It was a surprising reversal. After reaching a high on October 30, GLD dropped 8.30%, bounced and made up for most of that drop. But Monday’s price action gets it closer to the November low. GLD is also trading below its 25-day simple moving average (SMA), which is now starting to trend lower.
Monday was not Bitcoin’s day either. After hitting its psychological 100K level and failing to close there, $BTCUSD declined 4.46%.
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Monday’s steep fall didn’t disrupt the cryptocurrency’s bullish trend. The MACD is turning lower but not enough to warrant a trend reversal.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The overall trend is still bullish; if it falls below its 21-day EMA, the sentiment may become bearish.
The Bottom Line
Many big moves on Monday suggested that investors may be less fearful heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), often considered the fear gauge, is now below 15, further confirming that investors are complacent.
There are a couple of relevant events taking place this week. Tuesday is the FOMC minutes and, on Wednesday, we get the October personal-consumption expenditures price index (PCE). If either of these are vastly different from expectations, which I doubt, there may be significant shifts in the market.
Keep an eye on your StockCharts Dashboard regularly. If there are any shifts in market dynamics, that’s the first place you’ll see it.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
In this video, Dave shares how he uses the powerful ChartLists feature on StockCharts to analyze trends and momentum shifts as part of his daily, weekly, and monthly chart routines. He shows how mindful investors can use ChartLists to identify inflection points, focus on top performers, analyze performance trends, and better understand market correlations. Don’t miss this opportunity to upgrade your market awareness and stay ahead of the next big market theme!
If you’re a Microsoft 365 user, this Monday may have been a little more frustrating for you than usual.
The product family of software announced early Monday morning that it is investigating an issue impacting Exchange Online and Microsoft Teams users. Microsoft 365 applications, including Outlook and Teams, are heavily relied on by many places of work around the world.
In an afternoon update, Microsoft 365 said it is “facing delays” in its effort to address the issues.
‘We understand the significant impact of this event to your businesses and are working to provide relief as soon as possible,’ Microsoft said on X.
Downdetector, an online platform that monitors website and service outages, says user reports indicate issues with Microsoft 365, Outlook and Teams. Problem reports for the services seemed to spike just before 1 p.m.
Users posted in the comment sections on the Downdetector website to share the issues they’ve been facing this work day.
‘It is almost 2:00 PM EST. I am still unable to get access to Outlook,’ one commenter wrote in the Microsoft 365 comment section.
Another commenter from Michigan said their Outlook account has been down since around 10 a.m. EST.
This is developing story. Please check back in for updates.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state will provide rebates to residents if President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration does away with a federal tax credit for electric vehicles.
In a news release issued Monday, Newsom said he would restart the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which provided financial incentives on more than 590,000 vehicles before it was phased out late 2023.
‘We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California,’ Newsom said. ‘We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.’
The federal rebates on new and used electric vehicles were implemented in the Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in 2022. When Trump’s second term in office begins next year, he could work with Congress to change the rules around those rebates. Those potential changes could limit the federal rebates, including by reducing the amount of money available or limiting who is eligible.
Limiting federal subsidies on electric vehicle purchases would hurt many American automakers, including Ford, General Motors and the EV startup Rivian. Tesla, which also builds its automobiles in the United States, would take a smaller hit since that company currently sells more EVs and has a higher profit margin than any other EV manufacturer.
Newsom also announced earlier this month that he will convene a special sessionin December ‘to protect California values,’ including fundamental civil rights and reproductive rights, that he said ‘are under attack by this incoming administration.’
‘Whether it be our fundamental civil rights, reproductive freedom, or climate action — we refuse to turn back the clock and allow our values and laws to be attacked,’ Newsom said on X on Nov. 7.
A spokesperson for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
This isn’t the first time California will be taking action against the Trump’s administration concerning clean transportation legislation.
In 2019, California and 22 other states sued his administration for revoking its ability to set standards for greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, The Associated Press reported.
California sued the Trump administration over 100 times during his first term, primarily on matters including gun control, health care, education and immigration, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Macy’s on Monday said an employee responsible for managing accounting for small package deliveries concealed up to $154 million in expenses over the course of nearly three years.
The person who allegedly hid the money is no longer with the company, the department store operator said Monday morning, ahead of its third-quarter earnings report. The company, whose statement on the matter didn’t say when the person left the job, declined to comment beyond the announcement.
The news comes at a difficult time for Macy’s, which is indelibly tied to the holiday season through the film “Miracle on 34th Street” and the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, while investors look for clues about how consumers are shopping for the holidays. Macy’s sales have slumped as the company has underperformed for the past decade.
The company was due to deliver results before U.S. stock markets opened Tuesday morning, but it has delayed releasing its full results until Dec. 11 to allow an independent investigation to wrap up.
Macy’s said it discovered the issue while preparing its financial report for the quarter ending Nov. 2. It did release preliminary findings for the period, saying overall net sales declined 2.4% year-over-year.
The company said the employee, who was responsible for the accounting of small package delivery expenses, ‘intentionally made erroneous accounting accrual entries’ to hide about $132 million to $154 million from the fourth quarter of 2021 through the most recently completed quarter. That is small relative to the $4.36 billion in overall delivery expenses Macy’s recorded during that period. However, it is greater than the $105 million in net profit the company recorded for its full fiscal year that ended Feb. 3.
The independent investigation hasn’t identified any other Macy’s employee, the company said.
‘At Macy’s, Inc., we promote a culture of ethical conduct. While we work diligently to complete the investigation as soon as practicable and ensure this matter is handled appropriately, our colleagues across the company are focused on serving our customers and executing our strategy for a successful holiday season,” CEO Tony Spring said in a statement Monday morning.
Macy’s is attempting a turnaround amid broader shifts in the retail industry, particularly as shoppers buy more online. In February, the retail chain said it would close 150 stores nationwide in a reorganization initiative to focus on luxury sales.
The move will leave 350 Macy’s locations, as well as Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury beauty and skin care stores, which the company said have been “outperformers” within the Macy’s portfolio.
A federal judge said Monday he may hold an evidentiary hearing next month to help determine whether to approve the sale of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones’ media company to satirical publication The Onion.
Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez in Houston clarified the sale, which comes after a Nov. 13 auction, remains in limbo until such a hearing, when interested parties can make their case and he can decide which of Jones’ assets, if any, can be sold. A date was not immediately set.
He also declined to immediately rule on Jones’ request for a temporary restraining order to disqualify the Onion’s bid, and said ‘whatever was status quo pre-auction remains status quo’ — essentially allowing Jones to remain broadcasting from his flagship platform, Infowars, for the time being.
‘Firing folks a week before Thanksgiving is not what we do, but it sounds like that’s not what occurred,’ Lopez said. ‘Folks are continuing to work.’
Another bidder, First United American Companies, a limited liability company affiliated with Jones’ dietary supplements business, had challenged the results of the auction after it said it bid twice as much cash as the Onion.
At stake is the ownership of Infowars’ intellectual property, including its website — the prized asset in the auction in which proceeds are largely meant to help satisfy defamation verdicts awarded to several families of the victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting.
The families won lawsuits against Jones in 2022 after he repeatedly called the massacre that left 20 children and six staff members dead in Newtown, Connecticut, a ‘hoax’ on his Infowars broadcast. He filed for bankruptcy in his home state of Texas in the wake of the nearly $1.5 billion in legal judgments.
Jones’ company, Free Speech Systems, was set to go to the Onion, which has often mocked him in its faux news coverage, after bankruptcy trustee Christopher Murray announced the winning bid.
But First United American Companies quickly contested the results, saying in an emergency filing attempting to block the sale that it had offered $3.5 million in cash — compared to the Onion’s $1.75 million.
The auction process approved by Lopez did not require Murray to automatically select the bidder that submitted the highest amount, and the trustee could reject the bid that was ‘contrary to the best interests’ of the estate creditors.
Lopez said Monday that the focus of an evidentiary hearing will be on Murray’s business judgment in regard to how the auction was held. He said he may decide to approve the sale, order another auction or hold additional hearings.
‘I want a fair and transparent process, and let’s see where that process goes,’ Lopez said, adding, ‘Everyone will have their day in court.’
At a prior court hearing following the auction, Murray said, ‘the creditors ended up significantly better off’ under the Onion’s bid. He also explained in a filing that the majority of Sandy Hook families were willing to forgo their share of the sale proceeds and instead take a percentage from future revenues from a revamped Infowars, which would allow the other creditors to collect more money.
The Onion estimates its total bid value is $7 million.
But Walter Cicack, a lawyer for First American United Companies, said in its filing that the arrangement amounts to a ‘Monopoly’ money bid since any future revenues are undetermined.
‘This was not simply collaboration,’ he said of the Onion’s support from Sandy Hook families, ‘this was outright collusive bid rigging.’
Chris Mattei, an attorney for some of the victims’ families, said in a previous statement that the Onion did ‘a public service’ by spearheading the purchase and ‘will meaningfully hinder Jones’ ability to do more harm.’
Lawyers for the Onion said in a filing Sunday that the company has been ‘harassed and threatened by the Debtor and members of his audience since their winning bid was announced.’ They argued that the sale should proceed, writing that a joint bid ‘does not amount to collusion’ and disputing the idea that there was a lack of transparency because the auction used a sealed bid process.
‘Sealed bids maintain the competitive tension between bidders and force bidders to offer up their best terms irrespective of where other bids sit,’ the lawyers wrote, adding, ‘Far from maintaining this process in secrecy, once the Trustee selected the Successful Bidder, the Trustee publicly disclosed all information about the Qualified Bids, including by disclosing copies of the initial and final bids submitted by each Qualified Bidder.’
Onion CEO Ben Collins — who previously covered disinformation and conspiracy theories for NBC News — had said on social media that while ‘the judge had some questions about process and assets,’ its ‘bid with the families is clearly the best.’
Collins also wrote that the Onion plans to relaunch Infowars as ‘the dumbest website on the internet.’ A person with knowledge of the sale told NBC News the new platform will include well-known internet humor writers and content creators.
In announcing the sale, the Onion put out a news release written in the voice of a satirical CEO of Global Tetrahedron, the publication’s Chicago-based parent company.
Infowars was briefly shut down after the sale was announced before it resumed operating with Jones, who claimed the site was ‘hijacked.’
Meanwhile, Jones — who built a small media empire off of promoting conspiracy theories and misinformation — has claimed that Elon Musk and President-elect Donald Trump are investigating the bankruptcy auction in his favor after Musk’s X Corp. filed a notice of appearance in the case. X Corp. is presumed to be an interested party because Jones uses X to broadcast his show and the case involves the potential transfer of Jones’ X handle in the sale.
Lawyers for Jones filed a request last week for a temporary restraining order to invalidate the Onion’s bid, and asserted that First United American Companies should be the successful bidder. Jones described the auction process as ‘fraudulent,’ but told his audience that regardless of what happens with Infowars, he won’t be silenced.
Spanish retailer Mango is embarking on a bold expansion plan in the U.S. as it looks to shed its fast-fashion image and position itself as a premium brand.
The privately held company, headquartered in Barcelona, plans to open 42 new storefronts in the U.S. by the end of the year and aims to launch 20 more in 2025, primarily in the Sun Belt and Northeast, Mango CEO Toni Ruiz told CNBC in an interview.
The $70 million expansion plan includes a new logistics center outside of Los Angeles and about 600 new jobs, bringing the company’s U.S. headcount to about 1,200 employees by next year.
“This is a long-term commitment,” Ruiz said. “We have also the opportunity to have bigger stores in the U.S.,” he noted, adding Mango will open some multiline stores that feature men’s and kids’ items.
Mango’s sales grew more than 10% in the U.S. this year and the company expects to see double-digit growth again next year.
Currently, Mango’s largest market is its home base in Spain. While the U.S. is among its top five markets, the company is aiming to grow sales in the region so it can breach the top three. The goal is part of a larger strategic plan at Mango focused on growing sales from about 3.1 billion euros annually to 4 billion euros by 2026.
Mango, known for its European chic basics, is looking to reposition itself as a premium brand and signal to consumers that it is not a fast-fashion label. Its design process takes between seven and eight months, and everything is designed in-house in Barcelona, Ruiz said.
“Internally we have all the design, all the patterns, all the fittings — this is very important for us so 100% is done here. We also have 500 people taking care of the product from end to end,” said Ruiz. “We are trying to elevate. What does it mean, elevate? We think that our customer appreciates a lot this creativity, this design, this own style. So this is why we are pushing a lot, not only in terms of quality, design and also, why not prices? Because our proposal is getting better.”
Ruiz said Mango’s U.S. growth plans are focused on stores because a physical presence will allow the company to get closer to its consumer and tell its story in a new way.
The company follows a string of other international competitors such as Sweden’s H&M, Spain’s Zara and Japan’s Uniqlo that have turned to the U.S. market for growth. They are all competing to win over the average American household, which spends on average about $2,000 annually on clothes, according to a Lending Tree study.
Mango has opened stores in Pennsylvania; Washington, D.C.; and Massachusetts, but has turned its sights to the Sun Belt for its next phase of growth, driven by insights from e-commerce.
Mango’s website now represents about 33% of overall sales and helps the retailer determine where its customers are shopping from and what they are buying, said Ruiz.
“It’s a big challenge for us, because we have understood that every state in the U.S. is like a country in Europe, so because of the customer, because of the way of dressing,” said Ruiz. “It’s very important to understand the difference between the states. … So this is why we try to go step by step.”
Dominique Pelicot, the man who organized for more than 50 men to rape his unconscious wife, is “fully responsible” for his actions, a French public prosecutor told court after requesting the maximum prison sentence of 20 years.
Public prosecutor Laure Chabaud told the packed courthouse in Avignon, southern France, on Monday that the sentence would be “long” but “not enough considering the serious nature of these acts.”
“There are many examples in history of criminals capable of presenting themselves in a charming light and who at the same time are capable of the worst atrocities. Dominique Pelicot fits this bill. He was an attentive husband, father and grandfather,” Chabaud said.
“He suffers from no mental illness, so he is fully responsible for the acts he committed. We must ask ourselves about the future, which appears relatively bleak. His is considered incredibly dangerous,” she added.
A huge crowd of journalists and supporters gathered in the courtroom inside Avignon’s Tribunal de Grande Instance on Monday morning for the final day of oral arguments in a case that has made headlines at home in France and around the world.
Pelicot has been accused of organizing for more than 50 men to visit his house in the southern French village of Mazan and rape his wife, Gisele Pelicot. Over a period spanning nearly 10 years, Dominique Pelicot used an online website and messaging platforms to seek out men from a radius spanning roughly 25 miles (40 kilometers). Pelicot has admitted to habitually drugging his wife with a strong sedative before allowing strangers to sexually abuse her.
Dominique Pelicot kept his eyes closed and looked down at the ground during the hearing.
Beatrice Zavarro, the lawyer for Dominique Pelicot, told journalists outside court after Monday morning’s hearing that the request wasn’t a “surprise for us” and had been entirely “predictable.”
Despite this, she said it was still “difficult” to tell a 72-year-old man such as Pelicot that he may have to spend the next 20 years in prison.
Saskya Vandoorne reported in Avignon, Niamh Kennedy wrote in London.