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Vice President Kamala Harris continues to check the boxes in her bid to become president. From the first rollout of her candidacy through the Democratic National Convention to her debate performance against former president Donald Trump, she has mostly met or exceeded expectations.

Yet to be confident of winning, she still has work to do.

In the first weeks after President Joe Biden ended his candidacy in mid-July and she seized the nomination, Harris moved the polls in her direction — two, three or four points in some of the seven most competitive states. A contest that had slipped away from Democrats suddenly became competitive.

That initial shift in the polls got Harris back to roughly even with Trump, and there the race has been ever since. In the past two weeks, according to The Post’s average of polls, there has been only marginal movement, less than a point each, in all the battlegrounds.

A flurry of polls dropped last week, most of them in the three northern states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that have been seen as Harris’s most direct path to victory. There was some variation, especially in Pennsylvania, the linchpin state in the election.

A Washington Post poll showed Pennsylvania statistically tied, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent among likely voters. A Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris at 51 and Trump at 45. A Marist College poll put it 49 percent each. When all the Pennsylvania polls are averaged together, and across four different poll averages, Harris has a one-to-two-point advantage in the state — not insignificant, but well within the margin of error in a state that was decided by a point or less in both 2016 and 2020.

That’s the pattern pretty much throughout the other battleground states. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris has a slight advantage. In four other states — North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — the poll averages show the two candidates essentially tied, with Georgia leaning a slight bit more toward Trump but not comfortably.

What more can Harris do?

She was widely judged to have done better than Trump in the Sept. 10 debate in Philadelphia, including among a group of voters who could help decide the election followed by The Post. She outperformed him substantively and stylistically. She made her points; he did not — and he veered off track repeatedly.

Some of the glow of Harris’s performance has begun to fade, according to one Democratic strategist closely monitoring the numbers. That’s not atypical. If Harris gains any advantage in the polls from what could be their only debate (she has accepted a CNN invitation for a second debate on Oct. 23; he has not), it will be tiny — though in this election, tiny is not nothing.

Harris has shown real improvement in public perceptions of her. Through most of Biden’s term in office, she suffered from weak ratings. Since Biden left the race, her favorability ratings have risen. Looking at the website fivethirtyeight.com, her favorable versus unfavorable numbers were 17 points net negative. Today they are even — as many have a favorable impression of her as an unfavorable one. Meanwhile, Trump’s image is net negative by nine points.

According to new Marist College polls, Harris’s favorability is net positive in Michigan to Trump’s net negative. In Wisconsin, she’s even and Trump is net negative. In Pennsylvania, both are marginally net negative.

Shouldn’t that count for something? Republican pollster Bill McInturff says not really, and he points to recent history as evidence. In 2016, Trump was significantly more negative in perceptions than was Hillary Clinton (though both were unpopular), and he won. In 2020, Biden’s favorability was about even while Trump’s was negative — and he still almost won.

“Among all the political rules broken in the Trump era, believing the candidate with the higher net positive rating is going to win has definitely been thrown out,” McInturff said in an exchange of text messages. McInturff acknowledged that it’s still preferable to have positive ratings, but explained that the shift for Harris has largely been among the Democratic base.

There are few truly undecided voters in this election. But there are persuadable voters — people who may already be leaning toward one candidate or another but who may not be certain to vote. One key to winning over and turning out those voters is to provide information they don’t already know about a candidate, pro or con, that helps them decide.

In Trump’s case, he is so well defined that providing something new is nearly impossible. Opinions and perceptions of him are fixed, on both sides of the equation. That’s why no matter how outrageous he acts, no matter how often he tells lies, his standing changes almost not at all. And no matter how much it’s written about or talked about in the media, there’s no real change.

For Harris, there is still information to be imparted, from who she is and where she came from to her positions on issues of importance to voters to the cues she sends about her strength as a possible president dealing with some intractable problems at home and a dangerous and unstable world.

Some of this she’s doing through advertising, whether on television or digitally. Some of it is through social media. Some of it she sought to do in the debate, which was watched by more than 67 million viewers. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is doing what it can to tarnish her image, to make her look out of the mainstream and not ready to confront foreign dictators.

Harris must continue to allay voters’ concerns about the record of the Biden-Harris administration, whether it’s the border and immigration, the cost of everyday goods or the state of the world. Inflation has come down and the Federal Reserve’s cut in interest rates will be welcomed by potential home buyers and other borrowers. But many people still struggle with the cost of goods.

Border crossings are down but it took Biden three years to move aggressively. By then perceptions were baked in that he had done a poor job. Trump is doing all he can to keep the flames of that fire burning: witness how he and running mate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio continue to peddle lies about Haitian immigrants eating the pets of local residents. He and Vance continue to stir up a community pleading not to become part of the campaign dialogue.

Harris also has now done a limited number of press interviews. They have drawn mixed reviews. In part that’s because those events are seen through partisan lenses, but also because she has sometimes avoided answering direct questions. There’s no indication that these interviews have helped or hurt. She is checking a box, responding to complaints that she’s avoided unscripted settings.

Biden’s path to victory was seen as limited at best, based on the polls earlier in the summer. His only viable path was to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus one congressional district in Nebraska. That would have put him at exactly 270 electoral votes (including one Nebraska congressional district).

That’s still the most likely path for Harris, winning the combined 44 electoral votes from the trio of northern battlegrounds. But because the polls are so close elsewhere, Harris appears to have other options, though in all the possible combinations, winning Pennsylvania seems essential.

Democrats see a fresh opportunity in North Carolina. The porn-site scandal that has engulfed Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor, has thrown the state into turmoil. That could make Trump’s path to victory there more difficult. But few events, other than Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which led to Harris’s entry, have changed the race.

Enthusiasm for her candidacy among Democrats remains high. She held a live stream event with Oprah Winfrey on Thursday night in Michigan and drew 10,000 people to a rally in Madison on Friday night. But at the peak of exuberance for her candidacy last month, some Democratic strategists said that September would bring a different reality to Harris’s campaign. That’s the case today.

Early voting has begun and whatever surprises October holds, if any, are still unknown. For Harris, this is a time for grinding, for keeping her organization motivated, for filling in the blanks, for keeping the pressure on Trump, for reaching those few undecided voters, all in the hope of moving the numbers a few tenths of a percentage point every week or so, enough to claim victory in November. But she is not there yet.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

A major strike is on the horizon for thousands of maritime workers, posing a threat to East Coast ports responsible for billions of dollars of goods. 

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the largest union of maritime workers in North America, has vocalized plans to go on strike at all of its Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports Oct. 1 if a new contract agreement can’t be reached with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The union is arguing for better wages and continued protections against automation and new technology in its terminals.

“A sleeping giant is ready to roar on Tuesday, October 1, 2024, if a new Master Contract Agreement is not in place,” ILA President Harold J. Daggett said in a statement Monday.  “My members have been preparing for over a year for that possibility of a strike.”

According to a statement from USMX, negotiations with the ILA began in the last week of May. Now, the union’s current six-year contract is less than two weeks away from expiring.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told NBC News that while it is not at the table for the ILA-USMX negotiations, the agency is “closely monitoring developments and remain hopeful.” 

“For the over 600,000 regional jobs our port supports and the $240 billion in goods moved through here each year, we urge both sides to find common ground and keep the cargo flowing for the good of the national economy,” Steve Burns, a spokesperson for the Port Authority, added in a statement. 

The ILA has argued that the USMX is denying workers fair contracts with adequate wage raises and proper benefits. 

“USMX claims to offer industry-leading wages, however, their interpretation of ‘leading wages’ is polar opposite to ours,” a statement from the ILA on Monday said. 

“Our members are struggling to pay their mortgages and rent, car payments, groceries, utility bills, taxes, and in some cases, their children’s education. USMX’s corporate greed has made them delusional — profits over people. They have taken advantage of a low entry-wage and a tiered progression system for thirty years,” the statement continued. 

The union said its rank-and-file members will no longer accept contracts that include small wage increases of a dollar or less. It argued further that for more than three decades, ILA workers only saw annual wage increases of 2.02% per year on average — with some years having wage raise percentages of zero, according to the ILA statement. 

USMX declined to comment on any of the specifics of the current or past contracts. 

“Since USMX would rather leak our wage demands to the media, instead of reporting on the record billion-dollar profits of their member companies, I can say ‘yes, we are looking for a much higher percent increase in our wages,’” Daggett said in a statement. 

According to a Sept. 5 statement from USMX, the current offer to the union includes “industry leading wage increases,” and a retention of the existing technology language in the current agreement, which the alliance argues already formalizes that there will be no fully-automated terminals and no implementation of semi-automated equipment without agreement by both parties. It also boasts higher starting wages, health care coverage and increases to employer retirement contributions. 

USMX has released several statements since the initial bargaining meeting in late May, stating that the agency is committed to having negotiations with the ILA. 

“We have tremendous respect for the ILA and its members, but it is disappointing that we have reached this point where the ILA is unwilling to reopen dialogue unless all of its demands are met,” said the USMX’s most recent statement on Monday. “The only way to resolve this impasse is to resume negotiations, which we are willing to do at any time.” 

However, the ILA has said repeatedly that the USMX’s statements are “propaganda,” and “designed to mislead and divide” the union. 

According to negotiation updates from USMX, the ILA has not returned to the bargaining table since mid-July. In all of its updates since July 18, USMX has maintained that the union refuses to return to negotiations.

The ILA did not respond to a request for comment on the USMX’s stance that the union won’t meet to reopen negotiations.

The ILA and USMX will need to agree upon a new master contract by Oct. 1, before the current six-year contract expires and the ILA pledges to go on strike.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Sentiment indicators are contrarian, meaning that when the majority of investors are bullish on the a market, it is bearish for that market. Most investors are aware of several sentiment indicators that relate to the stock market, but they may not be aware that there is a sentiment indicator for gold derived from the closed-end fund, Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS).

Let’s quickly review how mutual funds work. An open-end fund processes contributions and redemptions while the market is open. After the market closes, it calculates the net asset value (NAV) per share. Closed-end funds normally do not process new contributions and redemptions. Rather, their assets are fixed and they trade on the stock market like stocks. Because of this, their price can be bid higher or lower throughout the market day, and they can sell at a premium or discount against their NAV.

On the daily chart below, we can see sentiment panel, which shows that PHYS has been selling at a discount for at least a year. This means that investors are still reluctant to buy gold (bearish) even though gold has been making new all-time highs. This is clearly bullish for gold.

On the weekly chart, we see that gold was selling at a small premium (green bars) a handful of times in the five years shown. Otherwise, it sold at a discount, while price advanced +82% during the period shown.

On the monthly chart, we can see that during the parabolic advance from 2005 to 2011, the gold held by PHYSwas selling at premium of about +14% in 2010, which is nuts. It continued selling at a premium for almost two years after the 2011 top, and it ultimately declined -46%.

The takeaway: Sentiment indicators are not precise timing tools, but, in this case, premium/discount analysis is an excellent method for assessing when investors in the gold market are too bullish or bearish.


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First of all, I apologize for my absence this week. I caught something that looked like Covid, and felt like Covid, but it did not identify (pun intended) as Covid. Apart from feeling lousy, also my voice was gone, so making a video was not a good idea.

I am getting back into the trenches now (not 100% yet), at least with this short article, after an eventful week marked by a historic interest rate decision.

What’s happening in sector rotation?

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors above largely shows a continuation of the rotations set in motion a few weeks ago.

There has been a small increase in the energy and Communication Services sectors. Energy is far to the left inside the lagging quadrant and, based on RS-Ratio, the weakest sector at the moment. Communication Services is very close to the benchmark and on a very short tail, which has also been pretty erratic over the last few weeks.

The Real Estate sector inside the leading quadrant lost some steam (upside momentum), but based on RS-Ratio, it is still the strongest sector.

All other sectors remain on the same trajectory, with XLU, XLP, XLF, and XLV leading the dance into the leading quadrant. When slicing the sector universe into offensive, defensive, and sensitive, this means that all defensive sectors are inside the leading quadrant and traveling at a strong RRG heading.

Then, there are two offensive sectors also inside the leading quadrant: Financials and Real Estate, which are also very interest rate-driven sectors.

All sensitive sectors (XLI, XLE, XLK, XLC) are on the left hand side of the graph with only XLI showing a positive RRG heading.

Dilemma

But here’s my dilemma: The market’s response has been pretty bullish so far, with SPY breaking through overhead resistance this week. It pretty much ignores the defensive sector rotation but also the strong negative divergences between price and RSI/MACD.

So, do I go with the flow in the upward break and call off any risk for corrective action? Or do I stand by the analysis from a defensive sector rotation and pretty strong divergence signals from classical technical indicators for a little longer and try to see through the current bullishness?

Here’s the S&P chart, which shows the run-up to the late 2021 peak and the current market behavior.

The two charts above show the market behavior of 2021 up to the week of the upward break aligned with the current market.

These two RRGs show the rotation for defensive sectors around the peak in 2021-22 and the current.

Price Pays, but Don’t Bet The Farm

I am the first to admit that price pays, and you cannot buy the RSI or the MACD. Still, history makes me think that long-lasting negative divergences between price and these indicators, as we see them now, have proven to be pretty reliable—reliable enough for me not to go all-in and bet the farm on the upside.

Combine that with the current defensive sector rotation and the strong resemblance to the setup shortly before the market peaked in early 2022, and I strongly lean toward a “Let’s see how this plays out in coming weeks” approach.

#StayAlert (and don’t get sick ;), have a great weekend. –Julius


The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision on Wednesday was like receiving a gift from a wish list. When the rate cut was announced, the market initially rose, acting surprised by the decision. But the excitement fizzled off as the market closed lower on that day. The next day, buyers were back, but Friday’s action had more selling than buying. You have to cut it some slack, though, given it was triple witching Friday—the expiration of stock options, index options, and index futures. It’s not unusual to see elevated trading activity as traders work on unloading positions or rolling them out to a future date.

In spite of the stock market’s up and down movement, the broader market indexes didn’t take too much of a hit. The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed just a hair lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed slightly higher, notching an all-time record close.

Let’s unpack the charts of the broader indexes, starting with the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Breaks Above Resistance

The large-cap S&P 500 index broke above the resistance of its slightly downward-sloping trendline. The daily chart below shows that market breadth in equities is improving. Note that three market breadth indicators are displayed in the lower panels below the price chart.

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The large-cap index still has momentum with market breadth indicators confirming bullish strength.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 77, the NYSE Advance-Decline Line is rising, and the percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is at 76.60. All three indicators confirm bullish momentum in the S&P 500.

The Nasdaq Composite

The Tech-heavy Nasdaq ($COMPQ) has also broken above the resistance of its downtrend line, but, unlike the S&P 500, it didn’t close at a new all-time high this week. Its market breadth isn’t as strong as that of the S&P 500, as is visible in the market breadth indicators in the lower panels.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The Nasdaq is trading around its August high. If it breaks above that level and market breadth continues to expand, it would confirm a bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The BPI for the Nasdaq is at 54.85, which is slightly bullish. The percentage of Nasdaq stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving average is at 44.23, while the Nasdaq Advance-Decline Line is rising. So overall market breadth for the Nasdaq doesn’t confirm an uptrend as strongly as one in the S&P 500.

The Nasdaq Composite is trading close to its August high. A break above this would confirm a bullish move, so it’s worth adding this chart to your ChartLists.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

The granddaddy of the indexes has been marching higher closing at a new all-time high (see chart below). After pulling back in early September, the Dow has taken the lead.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. The index closed at a record high and market breadth indicators point to strong bullish pressure.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The DJIA BPI is above 80 and trending higher, the percentage of Dow stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is relatively flat, and the Dow Advance-Decline line continues to rise higher. All three breadth indicators confirm the Dow is bullish.

The takeaway: The three broad indexes are up for the month. There’s a week and a day remaining this month. Will this September buck the seasonality trend?

Bonds, Gold, Oil

Bond prices have fallen since the Fed’s decision, possibly because the stock market is still coming to grips with the news. The chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) below shows that TLT is close to a support level.

CHART 4. BOND PRICES FALL BUT COULD FIND STABILITY SOON. Watch bond prices at the nearest support level.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If it stabilizes at this level and turns higher, it could present an opportunity to allocate a portion of your portfolio to bonds.  

Meanwhile, commodities are showing upside price movement. Gold prices continue to rise, closing at an all-time high on Friday. Oil prices are off their lows, although they are still in a downtrend. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is at its 200-day moving average. Let’s see if it breaks above it next week. Energy was the leading sector for the week. And don’t ignore Utilities; the sector was the leading sector on Friday and could be poised for more upside movement.

In the Tech Front…

The week ended on interesting news. Talks of a Qualcomm (QCOM) takeover of Intel (INTC) surfaced on Friday. Shares of INTC traded higher on the news. This could impact chip stocks, which have had a rough ride of late. Another chip company we’ll hear about next week is Micron Technology (MU), which reports earnings next week. The rumor is that there may be some negative news. Micron has taken a beating since June, and technically, the chart looks ugly.

End of Week Wrap Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 1.36% for the week, at 5702.55, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.62% for the week at 31,063.36; Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.49% for the week at 17948.32
  • $VIX down 2.48% for the week closing at 16.15
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Real Estate
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Carvana (CVNA); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group (CAVA); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)

On the Radar Next Week

  • August New Home Sales
  • Q2 GDP Growth Rate
  • August Durable Goods Orders
  • Speeches from Chairman Powell and other Fed officials
  • August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)
  • Micron (MU) Earnings

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen reviews the broader markets after last week’s rate-cut induced rally. She also shares stocks that are breaking out of bases and poised to trade higher. The “nuclear renaissance” is also discussed, as well as stocks that will benefit the most.

This video originally premiered September 20, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

So the first Fed rate cut is behind us, and we are no longer in a “higher for longer” period, but in a new rate cut cycle which will most likely last well into 2025. So that’s good news for stocks, right? Well, not necessarily.

The reality is that rate cut cycles do not happen very often. On average, there’s one rate cut cycle about every ten years. This is because the Fed raises and lowers rates in line with the economic cycle. When the economy is growing, they can raise rates to keep growth in check. And when the economy starts to slow down, they can lower rates to encourage spending and economic growth.

The chart above shows the S&P 500 index along with the Effective Fed Funds Rate. I’ve added blue vertical lines to identify when the Fed made their first rate cut in each cycle. So why are seasoned investment professionals a little hesitant to break out the champagne after the first rate cut this week? Because they remember years like 2001 and 2007, when the stock market pushed lower for months and months after that first decision.

Now, to be fair, the S&P did move higher for about 6-7 months after the first rate cut in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic changed the game in many ways, so it’s impossible to gauge whether the markets would have gone higher without that market-changing event. But, generally speaking, stocks have often moved lower after the first rate cut decision.

To paint a more complete picture of the relationship between interest rates and stock market performance, let’s also look at the shape of the yield curve. Our next chart shows the spread between the Ten-Year Treasury Yield and the Two-Year Treasury Yield, commonly known as “2s vs. 10s” in the industry.

The top panel shows the different between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield. I’ve added a purple horizontal line right at the zero level, because when the ratio dips below this point, we have what’s known as an inverted yield curve. I’ve also added red vertical lines to show when the yield curve had been inverted, but had switched to a more normalized shape. The orange-shaded areas denote recessionary periods, and the bottom panel shows the S&P 500 for reference.

Note how pretty much every recession has seen a similar chain of events. First, the yield curve becomes inverted as fixed income investors become less optimistic about future economic growth. Eventually, the yield curve returns to a normal shape, and soon after, the stock market begins to drop as the economy dips into a recession.

Now, does all of this mean we are guaranteed to see lower stock prices as we’ve seen when similar patterns emerge?  Of course not.  Remember, interest rates and the Fed are just part of a rich, dynamic, complex system of indicators to help us understand the market environment.

But if history provides any lesson here, it’s that a rate cut cycle has usually been very good for stocks, but not immediately. Mindful investors should remain vigilant, watching for signs of a potential downtrend, and focusing on areas of the market still showing relative strength in light of market uncertainties.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Former president Donald Trump spoke by phone this week with a Nebraska state senator as part of a last-minute push to change how the state allocates its electoral votes and block the easiest path Vice President Kamala Harris has to win the White House.

State Sen. Merv Riepe (R) said he spoke briefly by phone with Trump Wednesday in the presence of Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen (R) during a visit by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who encouraged Republicans in the state’s unicameral legislature to change to a statewide winner-take-all electoral vote system.

“I want the law changed. I’ve made no qualms about it,” said Graham, an ally of Trump, who said he traveled to Nebraska at the request of Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), the former governor. “They were open-minded. I said: ‘Listen, it’s your decision to make. It comes down to one electoral vote. I want you to understand what that one vote would mean.’ ”

Nebraska is one of two states that award some of its electoral votes by congressional district, which has given Democrats a good shot at winning a single vote from the Omaha area, despite the overwhelming statewide Republican lean. With that vote, Harris can secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as long as she also wins her three strongest battleground states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The change is supported by Trump, all of the state’s U.S. senators and congressmen, Pillen and a majority of the unicameral legislature, according to people involved in the process. But Republicans have not yet been able to convince a supermajority of the legislature — all 33 Republican state senators — which would be needed to override a filibuster to pass the change before the November election. Trump previously pushed for a legislative change in April and was rebuffed by lawmakers.

Graham met Wednesday with Pillen and around two dozen state senators about the proposal, according to Graham and Riepe. Before the hour-long luncheon, Riepe said he met with Graham and Pillen and spoke with Trump by phone for a minute or so.

Trump stressed the importance of making the change and “wasn’t threatening in any way at all,” Riepe said Friday in an interview. “Primarily I think he was saying: ‘Look, this is important to me. I’m interested, and I want you to know that I’m not just taking anybody for granted,’ ” Riepe said.

Pillen’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Three people involved in the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations, say they think there are multiple holdouts to the change, which would probably face a political backlash in Omaha, where voters have embraced their outsize role in the presidential election and the financial benefits of presidential advertising and campaign visits that come with it.

“The people of the 2nd district are excited to get out to vote, and they are offended by the prospect of the governor and senators and out-of-state interests taking away the opportunity to have their voice be heard,” state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D) said. “Any politician who takes away their vote to have their voice be heard will feel the repercussions at the ballot box.”

One key holdout vote is state Sen. Mike McDonnell, a former Democratic lawmaker who joined the Republican Party this spring after he was censured by Democrats for his antiabortion views. He has repeatedly said he opposes winner-take-all, but his office has suggested that he has not ruled out changing his mind.

“I’m not supporting winner-take-all,” he said in April when he changed parties. This week, his spokesman Barry Rubin told the Nebraska Examiner: “Sen. McDonnell has heard compelling arguments from both sides. … And, as of today, (he) is still a no.”

McDonnell, a former firefighter who has deep ties to organized labor in the state, is widely considered a possible candidate for mayor in Omaha next year. He attended the larger meeting with Pillen and Graham on Wednesday, but has not spoken with Trump, said a person familiar with the events, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations.

The Harris campaign declined to comment. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In the interview, Riepe said he believed every state should award its electoral votes by congressional district. But since there is no movement to do that, he said he backs having Nebraska adopt a winner-take-all policy. He said he told the governor he supports the change and, at Pillen’s request, signed a document pledging to vote for it.

“McDonnell stood up at the luncheon and said — he was very straightforward — and he said, ‘I’m a no vote,’ ” Riepe said.

Riepe drew national attention last year when he cast a crucial vote to block a six-week abortion ban. He later helped pass a 12-week ban. Riepe said he was probably called into Wednesday’s small meeting because of his voting history.

Graham said he talked to the Nebraska lawmakers about the importance of changing their system to ensure Trump gets as many electoral votes as possible because national security is of paramount concern. He described the state lawmakers as open-minded.

“It’s not just about Nebraska,” Graham said. “It’s international consequences.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The Arizona Supreme Court’s chief justice ruled Friday that nearly 100,000 voters should receive regular ballots this fall even though there is no record that they had submitted documentation to state officials proving they are citizens.

The battleground state’s high court issued its ruling three days after officials told the justices they had recently discovered state computer systems had identified some longtime residents as having provided citizenship documents even though they had not.

Election officials said they were confident all or nearly all of the voters are citizens, but some allies of former president Donald Trump seized on the issue to suggest large numbers of immigrants could be voting illegally. Voting by noncitizens is exceedingly rare, according to election experts, but Trump and his supporters have argued stricter laws are needed to prevent it from happening.

Like other states, Arizona requires people to take an oath stating they are citizens when they register to vote. For the last two decades, Arizona has also required them to show birth certificates, naturalization papers or other documents proving citizenship to vote in all races on the ballot.

Litigation over the law persisted for years, and in 2013 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled federal law requires the state to allow registered voters to cast ballots for president and other federal offices even if they have not provided proof of citizenship. In response, the state created a dual registration system that allows people to receive ballots that include races for state and local offices only if they prove they are citizens.

This month, election officials discovered a computer error caused about 98,000 registered voters to be listed as eligible for full ballots even though there was no record they had ever provided citizenship documents.

Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer (R) sued Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) on Tuesday and asked the state Supreme Court to immediately take up the case and bar the voters in question from receiving full ballots unless they submit citizenship documents. Fontes argued the court should allow the voters to receive full ballots this fall because the election is so soon. Richer and Fontes described the litigation as a “friendly lawsuit,” saying they shared the goal of getting a quick answer from the court so everyone knows how to handle the matter.

In a nine-page decision, Arizona Chief Justice Ann A. Scott Timmer wrote that the court was rejecting Richer’s request to limit what type of ballots the voters would receive, clearing the way for them to receive full ballots. No dissents were noted.

“We are unwilling on these facts to disenfranchise voters en masse from participating in state contests,” Timmer wrote. “Doing so is not authorized by state law and would violate principles of due process.”

Fontes praised the court for acting quickly.

“Now we can get on with the rest of the preparations for 2024,” Fontes said. “This was the right thing to do for Arizona.”

On social media, Richer thanked the court for acting quickly and said he was pleased the voters would get the full ballots, even though he had asked for the opposite outcome.

“The 100k registrants will continue to vote a full ballot this election,” he wrote on X. “Thank God.”

About 36,500 of the voters are registered as Republicans, about 27,000 as Democrats and about 34,500 as unaffiliated or third party. The partisan breakdown of those voters led some Republicans to fear the court would rule in a way that would make it harder for them to win seats in the narrowly divided legislature and fight a ballot measure aimed at expanding access to abortion.

The case divided Republicans, with some agreeing with Richer that the justices should strictly apply the state’s citizenship law and some siding with Fontes that they should allow the voters to get the same ballots they have in the past.

The people on the list account for about 2 percent of the state’s 4.1 million registered voters. They received their initial driver’s licenses before 1996, got a replacement license sometime after that date and subsequently submitted a voter registration application, either because they moved or registered to vote for the first time.

When they received the replacement license, the state’s computer systems indicated to local elections officials that they had provided citizenship documents even though there is no record that they had. The flaw has existed since 2004, when the state began requiring proof of citizenship for voting, officials said.

Under federal law, election officials are required to send military and overseas ballots to voters by Saturday. Early voting for others in Arizona begins on Oct. 9.

The fight over citizenship documents continues in a separate, long-running case. In 2022, Republican state legislators passed a law to require voters to provide proof of citizenship to vote in all elections, not just state and local ones. Last month the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Arizonans can register to vote for federal elections without providing proof of citizenship while the case continues. It could eventually return to the U.S. Supreme Court.

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Kamala Harris’s campaign raised more than four times as much as Donald Trump’s effort in August, capitalizing on the surge of Democratic enthusiasm during the first full month of her presidential campaign. But the super PACs aligned with Trump are continuing to raise large sums from high-dollar donors as the two candidates enter the final sprint before November.

Harris’s campaign raised $190 million in August, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on Friday night, and she spent almost $174 million in August — ending the month with $235 million in cash on hand. The campaign spent more than $135 million on media buys and ad production; more than $6 million on air travel; about $4.9 million on payroll and related taxes; and $4.5 million on text messaging.

The Trump campaign’s report showed that he raised $43 million in August and spent $61 million, with $135 million in cash to spend at the beginning of September. His campaign spent more than $47 million on advertisements, alongside $10.2 million on direct mail to potential voters and around $670,000 on air travel.

The Republican National Committee reported Friday night that it raised $40 million in August and ended the month with $79 million in cash on hand. It was both outraised and outspent by its Democratic counterparts, who raised $68 million and spent $84 million to end the month with $50 million in cash on hand.

Earlier this month, Harris officials said her effort and coordinated committees — groups that are jointly raising money for her campaign — raised $361 million in August compared with $130 million raised by Trump’s coordinated effort. But reports that show that full picture will not be available until later this year because some file quarterly rather than monthly. Her campaign built off the excitement in key moments, including her selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate and the surge of voter interest around the Democratic National Convention. Her aides have said that almost 3 million donors contributed to the August totals for the coordinated committees and that about a third of them were giving for the first time this cycle.

Harris received a surge of cash in the 24 hours after the Sept. 10 debate with the former president, raising $47 million during that period, according to the campaign.

Harris’s flush coffers have allowed her to build out a campaign operation with at least 2,000 aides and 312 offices across the battleground states at the same time she has held an advantage over Trump with her budget for television and digital ads. The Trump campaign, which is relying on outside groups to power its ground game, has not disclosed comparative details about the size of its operation.

Still, reports filed with the FEC on Friday night showed millions of dollars in contributions to Trump-aligned super PACs that are engaged in an intensive effort to cast Harris in a negative light just as many voters are learning about her background and credentials for the first time.

One of the highest profile groups running ads criticizing Harris is Make America Great Again Inc., which has been funded in large part by Timothy Mellon, a reclusive heir to the Mellon family banking fortune. In mid-July, Mellon gave $50 million to Make America Great Again Inc. — bringing the total that he has donated to the group during the 2023-24 cycle to at least $115 million.

MAGA Inc. raised $25 million in August and spent $90 million. The group’s top donors during the period included Wisconsin-based billionaire Diane Hendricks ($10 million), chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald Howard Lutnick ($5 million), hedge fund executive Paul Singer ($5 million) and Texas philanthropist Annette Caldwell Simmons ($2 million).

Future Forward, the largest Democratic-leaning super PAC, raised nearly $37 million in August. The group received $3 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and $1 million from Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings. Major environmental groups were also major donors to the group, including the League of Conservation Voters victory fund ($9.2 million), Climate Power Action ($4.5 million) and EDF action votes ($3.9 million).

The Preserve America super PAC bankrolled by billionaire Miriam Adelson, which is also airing ads on Trump’s behalf, is expected to raise as much as $100 million for that effort by Election Day, according to a person familiar with the group’s plans, but their latest campaign finance reports will not be filed until next month. During the 2020 presidential campaign, Adelson and her late husband Sheldon gave more than $90 million to Preserve America, accounting for the vast majority of the money the group raised.

And Save America, the leadership PAC that has been tasked with paying many of Trump’s personal legal bills, reported raising $2,138 but spending $1.9 million to pay lawyers. At the end of August, it owed various legal firms $3.6 million and had $4.8 million in cash on hand.

Despite Harris’s cash advantage, her advisers are urging donors and bundlers to push ahead so they can fund what Harris-Walz Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon has described a “relentless battleground operation” that could determine the outcome in a razor-thin race.

O’Malley Dillon argued in a recent memo to Harris fundraisers and supporters that Democrats face more challenges than Republicans in charting their potential paths to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

On Friday, former president Barack Obama and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton headlined separate fundraisers for Harris in Los Angeles. Harris is headed to New York this weekend to mingle with donors. The campaign is also planning a fundraiser with Harris in Los Angeles on Sept. 29 with photo opportunities starting at $50,000, according to an invitation reviewed by The Washington Post, and guests who give the maximum of almost $1 million are invited to a join a more intimate reception with Harris.

Harris is using her largesse to help with other close races around the country. Earlier this month, the Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee announced a plan to transfer almost $25 million to help down-ballot candidates in state and federal races. That will include $10 million transfers to the Democratic congressional and senatorial campaign committees as they seek to build majorities in the House and Senate.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee $22.3 million to $9.7 million. The NRCC was bolstered by a $289,100 donation from Elon Musk, the largest he has reported to the FEC so far this year. The gift was split between the general, headquarters and legal proceedings funds.

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