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In this exclusive StockCharts video, Julius analyzes seasonality for U.S. sectors and aligns it with current sector rotation. He explores how these trends impact the market (SPY) and shares insights on potential movements using RRG analysis. By combining seasonality with sector rotation, he provides a deeper look at market pressure and what to watch next.

This video was originally published on February 28, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

As part of our regular market review in the DP Alert, we have begun to notice a very good indicator to determine market weakness and strength. It may not be new to all of you, but we’ve found as of late that this indicator tells a story.

We have been tracking the relative strength of the SPY to equally-weighted RSP. When the relative strength line is rising, it means that mega-cap stocks are leading the market. When the relative strength line is falling, mega-cap stocks are taking a back seat.

The chart below shows you what happens when the mega-caps start to slide against RSP. The market itself usually travels lower (as does equal-weight RSP). It doesn’t happen every time, but it happens enough that we should be checking this chart regularly. If you are an Extra member or above with StockCharts.com, you can click on this chart and save it to your own ChartList for monitoring.

Currently, mega-caps are underperforming RSP, which has spelled trouble for the market. It did tip upward Friday, but ultimately the relative strength line is in a declining trend. We’ll want to watch for a move out of that.

Conclusion: Cap-weighting has made it important to monitor how the SPY is performing in relation to equal-weight RSP. A declining relative strength line is bad for the market as a whole, and that is what we are currently seeing.


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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin


(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.


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Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

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In my recent podcast interview with every trading day at 5:00pm ET on our YouTube channel!


After a major low in October 2023 around $103, ICE spent the next 12 months in a primary uptrend formed by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Note the bearish momentum divergence that occurred going into the late October high around $167, and how the subsequent pullback found support right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend phase.

Over the last six weeks, ICE has reversed course and now sits above two upward-sloping moving averages as it has achieved a new all-time high. The bottom panel provides a fantastic reminder of the value of buying strong charts after they have pulled back to potential support levels, and also shows the impressive outperformance ICE has experienced in 2025.

The daily chart of Visa (V) features a cup-and-handle pattern for much of 2024, with a rounded bottom pattern ending with a brief pullback before a breakout above the “rim” of the cup. From that breakout around $290 in early November 2024, Visa has not looked back. This week, V achieved a new 52-week high, continuing a trend of outperformance that goes back to that November breakout.

Visa is a great example of what comprises a strong technical configuration. Price is making higher highs and higher lows, the two moving averages are both sloping higher, the RSI remains in a bullish range between 40 and 80, and the relative strength has been trending higher. As long as those features remain, the chart suggests further upside potential.

Not all financial names have been breaking out this week, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) a great example of stocks that have pulled back even though the long-term trend remains strong. This week, JPM dropped to test its 50-day moving average, in a similar fashion to other pullbacks through the last 18 months.

Even with those frequent drawdowns, however, JPMorgan has sustained a bullish momentum configuration, with the RSI usually finding a low around 40 on price pullbacks. The relative strength has improved over the last six months, as JPM has managed to move higher while leading growth names have been struggling to hold key support levels.

One of the most common momentum factors measured by quantitative models is called the “12-1” factor, meaning the 12-month return minus the one-month return. A stock that has experienced a strong 12 months but a weak one-month would score the best. I would guess those momentum models are grading JPM quite well given the recent pullback and long-term bullish phase.

The best way I’ve found to weather periods of market uncertainty is to focus on relative strength, looking for stocks that are able to outperform their struggling benchmarks. These three stocks in the financial sector prove that there are charts out there with decent technical configurations; you just need to know where to look!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Growth stocks just took a sharp hit—what does it mean for the market? In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down the impact, reveals why NVDA could soar higher, and highlights safer stocks with strong upside potential!

This video originally premiered February 28, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The egg aisle is anything but cheaper by the dozen these days — and that’s becoming a big problem ahead of the Easter holiday.

The makers of Easter egg dye kits are bracing for the potential fallout if the egg shortage doesn’t begin to clear up before the April 20 holiday. For many companies that specialize in these activity sets, egg dye kits and related products make up a significant share of annual revenue. Diminished sales could have a major impact on their bottom lines.

“I think sales will be down,” said Ashley Phelps, founder and CEO of Color Kitchen, a plant-based baking decoration company. “That remains to be seen, but I think it probably will be.”

Wholesale egg prices have eclipsed record levels, reaching a high of $8.58 per dozen amid a domestic bird flu outbreak, according to global commodity data firm Expana. More than 52 million egg-laying birds have died, leaving the national flock at just 280 million, a critically low level, said Ryan Hojnowski, a market reporter at Expana.

He noted that rising prices have slowed consumer demand as retail egg prices average around $6 per dozen or higher. Additionally, many stores have implemented purchasing limits, restricting the number of cartons that customers can buy at one time.

The combination of inflated price and limited availability could curtail sales of eggs for the Easter holiday, ultimately affecting the demand for egg dye kits.

Natural Earth Paint, a company that manufactures natural art supplies and craft kits for kids, typically sells between 40,000 and 50,000 egg dye kits around the Easter holiday, according to founder Leah Fanning. So far this year, the company’s retail partners have ordered only 7,000 kits.

“It’s definitely a huge drop,” Fanning said, noting that most buyers have cited the egg shortage for the smaller orders.

Fanning told CNBC that the egg dye kits have been Natural Earth Paint’s bestselling product for 13 years and kept the company in business for its first eight years. Of the company’s more than 40 products, the egg dye kit remains its “absolute bestseller.”

She noted that while the majority of Natural Earth Paint’s sales come from retail locations, online sales typically pick up around three weeks before Easter. That leaves the chance that direct-to-consumer sales could get a boost in mid-March.

Color Kitchen said its Easter items represent 20% of the company’s total stock of items and outpace sales of all other items, including its Christmas icing kits.

Phelps noted that most retailers order these egg kits months ahead of the holiday to ensure they are in stock immediately after Valentine’s Day. She said retailers “took a little less product this year” given sensitivity to the inflationary environment.

“The other concern is that, some of the grocery stories, if they don’t sell through, then we get charged back for product that goes discounted to try and move it out of the store,” Phelps said. “So, that’s where we’ll get hit if the stuff that’s already been shipped out to grocery stores does not sell. That could potentially be very bad.”

Phelps said 75% of Color Kitchen sales are from the shelf. The remaining 25% is from direct-to-consumer sales on its website and on sites such as Amazon.

There are some companies that still expect to see solid business this Easter. The holiday takes place in late April, giving companies three more weeks of sales compared with last year.

Hey Buddy Hey Pal, a company that makes the Eggmazing Egg Decorator, a crafting tool that spins eggs so kids can use markers to color them, generates between 85% and 90% of its annual revenue from its Easter product. Last year, the company generated $14 million in sales, a 22% bump from the year prior.

Curtis McGill, co-founder of Hey Buddy Hey Pal, said retailers have ordered fewer of its products this year. Still, the company said it expects another jump of 18% in annual revenue as it’s set to sell between 600,000 and 700,000 egg decorators this year.

Even as egg prices boil over, some dye kit makers see egg decorating as an essential tradition that few families will opt to skip, even if they reduce the number of eggs they use.

Paas, the leader in the egg dye kit space, expects that some families will decorate fewer eggs this year, but said many will still participate in the tradition.

“It’s just such a sticky tradition,” said Joe Ens, CEO of Signature Brands, which owns the 140-year-old iconic Paas brand.

The company recently completed a survey of 120 consumers and found that 94% of them still plan on decorating eggs this holiday.

“And the reason for that, other than the tradition being so important to consumers, is if you really break down the cost of the tradition, it is arguably the most affordable family tradition during any holiday,” he said.

Paas expects to sell more than 10 million kits this year, one of the company’s strongest sell-ins ever, he said.

Arts and crafts store chain Michaels said it’s already seeing shoppers opt for egg-inspired products. The company told CNBC that 43% of its total Easter sales so far this year have been for plaster, plastic and craft eggs.

Michaels said a particular craft egg kit designed to “mimic the traditional egg-decorating experience” is selling nearly three times faster than the company had anticipated.

Similarly, Hey Buddy Hey Pal expects some families may opt to purchase wooden eggs instead of real ones. Though the alternatives are typically more expensive than real eggs, they’re an opportunity to keep the creations around long after the holiday is over.

“A lot could happen between now and then, we can continue to see an outbreak of avian flu and some different egg farms that hadn’t been affected,” said McGill. “It could get worse before it gets better. That’s not the projections, but at this point … I’m just gonna hold my breath until we get to April the 20th.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

As “economic softening” increasingly emerges as the prevailing narrative driving the markets, the retail sector occupies a peculiar space amid these shifts in investor confidence, inflation fears, and looming tariff woes. This is because retail straddles both cyclical and defensive sectors, accounting for a huge chunk of Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples spending. January retail spending saw its sharpest decline in two years, though post-holiday spending may have distorted the data. The coming report in mid-March might provide a clearer picture.

In a nutshell, here’s what’s weighing on investors’ minds:

  • Tariffs could drive up costs which may be passed on to consumers.
  • Immigration policies might trigger labor shortages, further increasing expenses.
  • Both factors could disrupt the broader supply chain, impacting everything from sourcing to sales.

Despite these challenges, analysts are expecting moderate growth for retail in 2025. With that in mind, let’s take a look at where retail stands relative to Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), and the S&P 500 ($SPX).

Below is a PerfCharts view.

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS COMPARING XRT WITH XLY, XLP, AND THE S&P 500. Retail underperformed all of its peer components.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

I’m using the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) as the retail sector proxy. Its holdings are primarily concentrated in discretionary retail (broadline, apparel, automotive, and specialty), with secondary holdings in staples (food and drug retail).

Over the last year, XRT has lagged the broader market and the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors, in which it has some participation. Yet Wall Street expects moderate and stable growth in discretionary and staple retail spending, respectively. With XRT beaten down among its peers, could it be approaching a bottom and presenting a potential buying opportunity?

Below is a weekly chart of XRT.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF XRT. It doesn’t seem like there was much going on over the last three years.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

XRT had a significant rise, a sizable decline where its valuation was cut in half, a volatile period of sideways movement, and a higher and less volatile period of even more sideways movement leading to where it is now.

The Bollinger Bands® will help you visualize the strength of the trends (when XRT was trending) and the upper and lower threshold of its varying sideways movement over the last three years or so.  If XRT is poised for moderate growth, its position near the lower Bollinger Band suggests a potential long entry. But is this just another rangebound trade to be sold near the upper Bollinger Band?

Let’s take a closer look at a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF XRT. A swing trader’s paradise?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The cycles aren’t perfect, but that’s what you’re immediately presented with here. XRT seems to be trading in sync with the Stochastic Oscillator, which is particularly effective in forecasting turning points in a non-trending market such as this one. The Keltner Channel, which is slightly less sensitive to volatility than Bollinger Bands because it is based on the Average True Range (ATR) rather than standard deviation, pairs effectively with the stochastic oscillator for anticipating market reversals and “fading” tops and bottoms.

So is this a “trading” stock or a stock you can invest in for the longer term? Here’s how I’d approach it.

  • Swing traders are likely to buy at these levels, with the goal of selling as soon as price either reaches the top Keltner Channel or the stochastic reading reaches 80 (or both). This is risky, of course, and swing traders’ stop-loss would vary depending on their strategies.
  • Investors hoping that XRT will rally beyond the channel, breaking its trading range, would want to set a stop loss a few points below the current low. Investors will hope to see XRT break above the last swing low of $77 and eventually $82 (the most recent swing high) while forming a consecutive low that’s above the most recent swing low of $73.50. If it fails to do this, then it’s likely to remain rangebound. If XRT closes below $73.50, then the likelihood of further downside is greater.

At the Close

Retail’s dual role in discretionary and staple spending makes it difficult to forecast, and XRT’s sideways movement reflects that uncertainty. Swing traders may find short-term opportunities, but long-term investors should wait for a clear breakout. Without momentum, staying on the sidelines might be the safer choice.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) reported strong Q4 earnings earlier in February, and prospects remain strong for 2025, although it may face some headwinds. The recent earnings announcement for the company led to a pullback in the stock price; however, BMY is now showing signs of recovery and gaining some momentum.

The stock caught my interest when I ran my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan on Thursday evening. An attractive price point and the recent strength of the Health Care sector enticed me to do a deeper dive into the stock’s charts.

The Health Care sector was in a steady downfall from September to December 2024. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) deviated from the downfall and trended higher during this time. The daily chart of BMY below shows the stock’s performance relative to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). Since September 30, 2024, BMY’s performance has outperformed XLV’s. Even during the February pullback, the stock was performing better than the Health Care sector.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB. The SCTR score has crossed 76, the MACD is crossing over into positive territory, and BMY is outperforming XLV.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score in the upper panel didn’t display strength until November and, even though it crossed above 76, it didn’t go higher than 92. In late January, the SCTR score fell below the 76 level.

The following points are worth noting:

If BMY’s stock price continues to rise higher there could be an opportunity to add some positions of this stock. How high could the stock price go? The probability of BMY hitting its 52-week high is high, but, for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, there needs to be strong upside momentum. The weekly chart below shows the stock has the potential to rise to around the $72 level.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB. A break above the upper Bollinger Band, rising RSI, and crossover of the stochastic oscillator point to further upside move in the stock price.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

  • A break above the upper Bollinger Band® would be positive for the stock.
  • The relative strength index (RSI) is just shy of 60. A cross above 70 would confirm upside momentum.
  • Look for the %K line to cross over the %D line in the full stochastic oscillator (lower panel).

The bottom line: I’ll be monitoring Bristol Myers Squibb’s stock price closely. I’ve set an alert to notify me when the stock price crosses above $61. If the indicators in the daily chart still indicate buying pressure is strong and the trend is bullish, I’ll consider adding BMY to my portfolio.


The SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Paramount Global told its employees this week that it’s ending numerous diversity, equity and inclusion policies, according to a memo obtained by CNBC.

In the memo sent to employees Wednesday, Paramount said it would comply with President Donald Trump’s executive order banning the practice in the federal government and demanding that agencies investigate private companies over their DEI programs.

Co-CEOs George Cheeks, Chris McCarthy and Brian Robbins cited the executive order in the memo, as well as the Supreme Court and federal mandates, as the impetus for the media giant’s policy changes.

Among the changes, the company said it “will no longer set or use aspirational numerical goals related to the race, ethnicity, sex or gender of hires.” Paramount also said it ended its policy of collecting such stats for its U.S. job applicants on forms and career pages, except in the markets where it’s legally required to do so.

“To be the best storytellers and to continue to drive success, we must have a highly talented, dedicated and creative workforce that reflects the perspectives and experiences of our many different audiences. Values like inclusivity and collaboration are a part of the Paramount culture and will continue to be,” the co-CEOs wrote in the memo.

They added that they will continue to evaluate their policies and seek talent from all backgrounds.

Paramount has taken part in a number of diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. It donated millions to racial justice causes in 2020 after the police murder of George Floyd and has touted initiatives such as a supplier diversity program and Content for Change, a campaign to overhaul storytelling about racial equity and mental health. The company has hosted an annual Inclusion Week for years and maintains an Office of Global Inclusion.

“Diversity, equity and inclusion is fundamental to our business,” former CEO Bob Bakish said at Paramount’s 2023 Inclusion Week, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Paramount joins companies like Walmart, Target and Amazon in rolling back their DEI goals and policies in recent months. Others, like Apple and Costco, have publicly defended and committed to their DEI stances, even as the Trump administration has escalated its attacks on the practices.

Media companies have taken a variety of steps to respond to the Trump administration’s policy changes since the president’s inauguration last month.

Earlier this month, Disney changed its DEI programs, which included updating performance factors and rebranding initiatives and employee resource groups, among other things.

Around the same time, public broadcaster PBS — which, as a recipient of federal funding, is more directly affected by Trump’s order than corporations are — said it would shut down its DEI office. CNBC reported that DEI employees would exit the company in order for it to stay in compliance with Trump’s executive order.

Meanwhile, the Federal Communications Commission began investigating Comcast over its DEI efforts. Trump’s executive order, signed on his first day in office, directs federal agencies to identify and probe “most egregious and discriminatory DEI practitioners” in their sectors. Comcast previously said in a statement it would cooperate with the investigation.

Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said next-generation AI will need 100 times more compute than older models as a result of new reasoning approaches that think “about how best to answer” questions step by step.

“The amount of computation necessary to do that reasoning process is 100 times more than what we used to do,” Huang told CNBC’s Jon Fortt in an interview on Wednesday following the chipmaker’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.

He cited models including DeepSeek’s R1, OpenAI’s GPT-4 and xAI’s Grok 3 as models that use a reasoning process.

Nvidia reported results that topped analysts’ estimates across the board, with revenue jumping 78% from a year earlier to $39.33 billion. Data center revenue, which includes Nvidia’s market-leading graphics processing units, or GPUs, for artificial intelligence workloads, soared 93% to $35.6 billion, now accounting for more than 90% of total revenue.

The company’s stock still hasn’t recovered after losing 17% of its value on Jan. 27, its worst drop since 2020. That plunge came due to concerns sparked by Chinese AI lab DeepSeek that companies could potentially get greater performance in AI on far lower infrastructure costs.

Huang pushed back on that idea in the interview on Wednesday, saying DeepSeek popularized reasoning models that will need more chips.

“DeepSeek was fantastic,” Huang said. “It was fantastic because it open sourced a reasoning model that’s absolutely world class.”

Nvidia has been restricted from doing business in China due to export controls that were increased at the end of the Biden administration.

Huang said that the company’s percentage of revenue in China has fallen by about half due to the export restrictions, adding that there are other competitive pressures in the country, including from Huawei.

Developers will likely search for ways around export controls through software, whether it be for a supercomputer, a personal computer, a phone or a game console, Huang said.

“Ultimately, software finds a way,” he said. “You ultimately make that software work on whatever system that you’re targeting, and you create great software.”

Huang said that Nvidia’s GB200, which is sold in the United States, can generate AI content 60 times faster than the versions of the company’s chips that it sells to China under export controls.

Nvidia counts on billions of dollars of infrastructure spend annually from the largest tech companies in the world for an outsized amount of its revenue. The company has been the biggest beneficiary of the AI boom, with revenue more than doubling in five straight quarters through mid-2024 before growth decelerated slightly.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS