Author

admin

Browsing

A pastor who the United States says was wrongfully detained in a Chinese prison for nearly two decades has been released, according to the State Department, ending a case that the Biden administration said was a top priority in efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing.

David Lin, 68, was detained in China in 2006 after helping to construct an unapproved church building. He was later sentenced to life in prison for contract fraud, a charge he denied.

Lin was one of three Americans deemed by the US State Department to have been wrongfully detained in China. Businessmen Kai Li and Mark Swidan are still held behind bars, on espionage and drug-related charges respectively.

“We welcome David Lin’s release from prison in the People’s Republic of China,” a spokesperson for the US State Department said in a statement Sunday.

“He has returned to the United States and now gets to see his family for the first time in nearly 20 years,” the statement added.

The Biden administration has in recent years stepped up diplomatic efforts to secure the release of the three men.

American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, have repeatedly raised the issue during their visits to China, citing it as a “top priority” to resolve their cases.

President Joe Biden also addressed the issue with Chinese leader Xi Jinping when they met in person in San Fransisco in November and spoke by phone earlier this year, according to readouts from the White House.

Lin visited China frequently in the 1990s and started to preach the Gospel there in 1999, according to ChinaAid, a US-based non-profit Christian human rights organization.

He was detained in 2006 for helping an underground “house church” build a place of worship and barred from leaving the country, according to ChinaAid.

Lin regarded his incarceration as an opportunity to share his faith with fellow prisoners and established a prayer meeting group, according to ChinaAid.

In China, many Christians used to worship in house churches, or informal gatherings independent of state-approved churches. But the Chinese government has cracked down hard on the movement in recent decades as the ruling Communist Party tightens its grip on religion, especially under Xi.

In 2009, Lin was jailed for life for contract fraud, a crime frequently used against house church leaders who raise funds to support their work, according to the Dui Hua Foundation, a San Francisco-based human-rights group which advocates on behalf of detainees in China.

While in prison, Lin received several sentence reductions and was scheduled to be released in 2029, according to the Dui Hua Foundation.

Lin’s release was welcomed by some US politicians, who also called for the release of other Americans detained abroad.

“I am extremely glad to hear David Lin was freed,” Rep. Michael McCaul said Sunday in a statement on social media. “However, Kai Li and Texan Mark Swidan still remain CCP prisoners — and must be freed now.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In recent years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been signalling its intent to become a major player in artificial intelligence, but now other Gulf countries are also getting serious about the technology.

“Here in the region, people were much more prepared to experiment and get involved with AI than maybe some other parts of the world,” he added.

One issue around the rapid growth of AI is that it can be hugely energy intensive, and it is increasingly becoming a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Google reported that its 2023 emissions were nearly 50% more than in 2019, which it partly attributed to the energy demands of AI. Energy demand from AI, data centers and cryptocurrencies could double by 2026, according to the International Energy Agency.

But Anderson believes that Gulf countries, whose economies are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, are well placed to become “major players” in the technology, and have the potential to make it greener.

“We’re at the center of the world when it comes to energy – not just old energy, but particularly new energy,” he said. “This is the lowest-cost place anywhere in the world to produce solar energy. So the opportunity to combine sustainability and energy with the computer power that’s required from an AI perspective is really important.”

Anderson pointed to the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the region’s leading investors in AI.

As Saudi Arabia looks to cut its economy’s reliance on oil and gas, it has invested heavily in AI, which it says will help to realize the objectives outlined in its “Vision 2030” strategy, a government program to diversify the economy. According to a recent projection from the Saudi Data and AI Authority (SDAIA), which hosted the GAIN summit, AI will contribute 12% of its GDP by 2030, with the sector growing at an annual rate of 29%.

There have been significant efforts across the region to develop Arabic-language models trained on local datasets that capture the nuances of the language in a way that has been lacking on platforms like ChatGPT. Last year, the UAE unveiled a tool called Jais and Saudi Arabia has developed the Arabic chatbot ALLaM.

Last week, it was announced that ALLaM will be hosted on Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform. This follows the news from earlier this year that it would also be accessible through IBM’s watsonx platform.

Nick Studer, CEO at management consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group, who attended the GAIN summit, said that the focus on Arabic language models could help Saudi Arabia compete with English-speaking markets that have an “underlying advantage” in the space because of the many large language models available

According to Studer, there are over half a dozen Arabic-based large language models in development in the country, focusing on a range of uses cases, from chat to governmental and corporate applications. “That combination of governmental and private sector entrepreneurialism may well lead to the development of an AI hub, particularly as the kingdom and the wider region seek to diversify their economies,” he said.

Challenge of governance

One of the major hurdles with the development of AI is public perception and governance: how should AI and data be regulated safely, securely, ethically and fairly?

During the summit, various policies were announced, including the launch of guidelines from the SDAIA addressing the responsible use of deep fakes, the unveiling of the Riyadh Charter for AI in the Islamic World, which establishes a framework for developing AI technologies in line with Islamic values and principles, and a global framework for AI readiness, led by the International Telecommunication Union.

Studer says a solid regulatory framework is essential for the future of AI.

“There are many concerns that go with the development of AI – not just privacy concerns, not just the risks of losing jobs, but also all the way up to national sovereignty if your economy starts to rely on a set of tools which are built outside of your control,” he said. “It is critical that we have sensible regulation in place.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Former president Donald Trump has long inhabited a bizarre world of his own creation. He rewrites history — or makes it up entirely — to aggrandize himself, denigrate others and spread the basest of lies.

It keeps getting worse.

Since Tuesday’s debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, he’s spiraled ever deeper into conspiracy theories, falsehoods and grievances. He insists he is not a loser. He never lost the 2020 election, he says falsely, and he certainly didn’t lose that debate in Philadelphia. He claims victory in an event in which he spent 90 minutes chasing Harris’s barbs down every possible rabbit hole. He rarely managed to get off the defensive long enough to make a case against her — and when he did, he was barely coherent.

Trump can’t accept the widely held verdict that Harris outdid him, just like he couldn’t accept that President Joe Biden defeated him four years ago. On Friday night, during a rally in Las Vegas that was replete with baseless claims about a variety of topics, he spun up the tale that Harris was receiving the questions during the debate. Elevating a conspiracy theory that popped up on social media, he falsely claimed she had hearing devices in her earrings, that she was being coached on what to say in real time. He did it in classic Trump style, citing unspecified hearsay as proof.

“I hear she got the questions, and I also heard she had something in her ear,” he said. ABC News, which hosted the debate, denied these false claims, but Trump cares little for the truth. He prefers to spread lies to excuse his own poor performance and to stir up his supporters to think the game was somehow rigged. All that does is further divide the country.

He used a similar technique during the debate, notably about immigration. That night he repeated a claim that had spread on social media that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating the pets of local residents. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in. They’re eating the cats,” he said.

When David Muir, one of the two ABC moderators, pointed out that the city manager in Springfield had told the network there were “no credible reports of specific claims of pets being harmed, injured or abused by individuals within the immigrant community,” Trump replied, “Well, I’ve seen people on television.”

As Muir tried to interject, Trump continued. “The people on television saying their dog was eaten by the people that went there,” he said. Muir responded, “I’m not taking this from television. I’m taking it from the city manager.”

Trump tried again, saying, “But, the people on television saying their dog was eaten by the people that went there.” Muir countered once more. “Again, the Springfield city manager says there is no evidence of that,” he said. “We’ll find out,” an unrepentant Trump said.

In the past few years, Springfield has experienced a large influx of Haitian immigrants, who are in the United States legally. They have filled jobs in local businesses but they also have put a strain on the city’s services and caused an uproar among some local citizens. Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), seeking to highlight the issue of immigration in the campaign, helped put the town in the spotlight after an 11-year-old boy was killed in a traffic accident caused by a Haitian migrant.

Nathan Clark, the boy’s father recently denounced those who have invoked the death of his son to score political points, calling it “reprehensible.” “To clear the air,” he said last week, “my son Aiden Clark was not murdered. He was accidentally killed by an immigrant from Haiti.” He criticized Trump, Vance and other politicians for using the tragedy to advance their own interests. “They have spoken my son’s name and use his death for political gain,” he said. “This needs to stop now.”

The repeated false claims about the Haitian community have brought threats to the city. On Friday, two elementary schools in Springfield were evacuated because of bomb threats and a middle school closed. It was the second day in a row that schools were closed due to such threats. The Columbus Dispatch reported that one of the threats included the same debunked claims about the migrant community that have circulated on social media.

Trump continues to fuel anti-immigrant outrage. He has previously said that if elected he would order the deportation of all undocumented immigrants living in the United States, a proposal judged by experts as both impractical and legally questionable. During a Friday news conference with reporters in California, Trump said, “We’re going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country. And we’re going to start with Springfield and Aurora, [Colorado].”

Aurora is another city Trump cites as being destroyed by illegal migration, saying that it has been overrun by Venezuelan gangs. Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman, a former Republican U.S. House member, said last week that such claims are “grossly exaggerated,” that the problem is limited to specific housing properties and is being dealt with by law enforcement.

That Trump has lost focus on the messages his campaign wants to highlight has been evident for weeks. There are issues that could put Harris on the defensive, if he were capable of a sustained and effective message based on facts and not falsehoods. He’s proving that he isn’t able to do that.

Most polls show that voters believe he is better able to handle the economy and inflation, issues at the top of voters’ lists of concerns. He has an advantage on immigration. Beyond that, Harris is still trying to fill out her profile for voters. In a Friday interview with Brian Taff of WPVI-TV in Philadelphia, she offered mostly general answers to some specific questions about how she would lower prices and where she differs with Biden.

In the debate, Trump tried repeatedly to put immigration front and center, but he was ineffective, in large part because of exaggerations or, as with the Springfield example, outright lies. Many Republicans who support Trump for president fear he is neither talking about what matters most to voters nor heeding the counsel of his campaign’s senior advisers.

Meanwhile, the question of who has his ear has come to the fore. Laura Loomer is an attention-seeking purveyor of racist and homophobic comments and a spreader of conspiracy theories. Recently she posted on X that if Harris, who is Black and Indian American, is elected, the White House will “smell like curry & White House speeches will be facilitated via a call center.”

Last week, Loomer accompanied Trump to the debate in Philadelphia and joined him the next day at ceremonies commemorating the 23rd anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. A year ago, she had posted on X that those attacks were “an inside job,” a conspiracy theory for which there is no evidence.

Her presence at Trump’s side has alarmed many Republicans. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) recently posted on X: “Laura Loomer is a crazy conspiracy theorist who regularly utters disgusting garbage intended to divide Republicans. A DNC plant couldn’t do a better job than she is doing to hurt President Trump’s chances of winning reelection. Enough.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told a reporter for HuffPost that her history “is just really toxic.” Even Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a committed acolyte of Trump and his Make America Great Again movement, and herself a purveyor of conspiracy theories and falsehoods, called Loomer’s comment about Harris “appalling and extremely racist,” adding, “This type of behavior should not be tolerated ever.”

Trump, who has praised Loomer over the years, on Friday tried to duck from the criticism about her. He first claimed that he didn’t really know what she has said. Later he posted on Truth Social that he disagrees with the statements she’s made, a classic dodge on his part.

He went on to suggest that she is justified because she is “tired of watching the Radical Left Marxists and Fascists violently attack and smear me.” Apparently, no one can be too extreme if they support him — or at least they can be forgiven.

This has been Trump’s pattern from the time he first became a candidate nine years ago. If anything, he has become even less disciplined and more conspiratorial than he was back then. Few people likely to vote this fall do not already have an opinion about him, pro or con. Because the country is so closely divided and questions about Harris exist, he remains in a position to possibly win the election.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

After months of disagreements, a group of military families who lost loved ones in a bombing during the U.S. evacuation of Afghanistan gathered on a Zoom call last December. On the line with them was a 35-year-old Republican operative and Marine Corps veteran who some saw as helpful and others saw as divisive.

The group had taken to calling itself the Abbey Gate 13 Coalition, a reference to the location at Kabul’s airport where 13 U.S. troops and 170 Afghans had been killed in a suicide bombing on Aug. 26, 2021, in the closing days of America’s longest war, marking a low point in President Joe Biden’s term. The relatives participating expressed disgust with the Biden administration’s handling of the operation, but the group had started to splinter over disputes that included whether to overtly support Donald Trump, according to interviews with people involved and text messages obtained by The Washington Post.

The group asked the mothers of two Marines killed in the bombing to leave over those disagreements, and the rest signed a formal memorandum of understanding that encouraged secrecy and solidarity, according to several parents involved and a copy obtained by The Post. The group added additional members over the next year, while other families chose to abstain.

The women who left the group, Cheryl Rex and Shana Chappell, said the political adviser, Marlon Bateman, told the family members that they could generate attention and donations by staging “political stunts.” Other families on the call deny that happened, and Bateman said he does not remember ever saying words to that effect.

The group captured headlines with recent visits to Capitol Hill, a speaking engagement during the Republican National Convention and a trip to Arlington National Cemetery with Trump on the third anniversary of the bombing. The latter event included an altercation between Trump campaign employees and a cemetery worker who had sought to enforce a law prohibiting partisan activity at the hallowed site, Army officials said. Several families then released videos through the Trump campaign to attack Vice President Kamala Harris, his election opponent, after she criticized his campaign’s actions at the cemetery.

As Trump seeks to pin the tragedy on Harris, she has fought back by noting that Trump oversaw the negotiation of a deal with Taliban militants in February 2020 that undercut the Afghan government and called for the exit of all U.S. troops and the release of 5,000 Taliban members from Afghan prisons.

This account of the Abbey Gate coalition’s efforts is based on interviews with 18 people, including Gold Star family members, Bateman, and congressional and Pentagon officials. The families’ journey to becoming prominent pro-Trump surrogates followed initial interaction with Biden that angered them followed by active outreach from Trump and support from Bateman and Republican congressmen. The Trump campaign, in its tightly contested race with Harris, has increasingly relied on the group to bolster attacks on Harris over the Afghanistan withdrawal.

Bateman — a former Trump administration official who has helped raise funds for Trump’s campaign this year — said in an emailed response to questions that he assisted the families without pay. He first connected with Darin Hoover, the father of Staff Sgt. Darin “Taylor” Hoover, and advised him to invite all 13 families to join in the same “pursuit of accountability,” he said. Bateman was drawn to the mission in part because he previously served in 2nd Battalion, 1st Marines — the same unit that went on to suffer significant U.S. losses at Abbey Gate.

“I see this as an obligation to honor the legacies of the 13 fallen heroes,” he wrote. “At their request, I helped them navigate the most effective way to get answers about what happened to their children and why, including suggesting they prioritize meetings with members of leadership and members who were already conducting oversight on this matter.”

Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the campaign does not pay Bateman. It has covered travel costs for some of the families to attend Trump events, she said.

Hoover said that Bateman has been “integral” in their efforts and is “family for us now.” It is common for interest groups to have professional advisers.

“We didn’t ask to be political about it,” Hoover said. “In order to get done changes like we want to see, we’ve got to become a little bit political and go through that climate, good, bad or indifferent.”

The adviser

Bateman’s work with the group began last year, after Hoover’s state attorney general, Sean Reyes (R-Utah), connected him with Bateman.

In March 2023, Bateman contacted a fellow alumnus of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, Jonathan Wilcox, who now works for Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). Issa became the first lawmaker to bring the families to Congress, coordinating with the staff of Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, for a roundtable discussion in August 2023.

“From the start, I’ve seen Marlon Bateman skillfully and selflessly serve these Gold Star families as their friend, adviser, and tireless champion,” Issa said in a statement.

The event gave the families an opportunity to draw attention to their children, which is always one of their goals, they said. But behind the scenes, there was tension over the way forward.

Chappell, the mother of Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui, had not traveled for the events in Washington and took issue with the way some of the other members talked about her, according to text messages between her and Bateman that she provided to The Post.

On Dec. 3, Bateman contacted her and raised concerns about “division that is being formed” in the group. Others involved said that Chappell had disparaged several people and taken issue with how Nikoui’s father, Steven, spoke about their son.

Chappell responded to Bateman that while she still saw Biden as responsible for her son’s death, she saw no chance of getting accountability and wanted to move on.

“Kareem was not political and he disliked Trump and Biden equally so i do not want my son being used in any way to endorse Trump,” she wrote Bateman. “That would piss my son off if he was alive.”

Bateman replied that he was in an “impossible situation” attempting to moderate discussion among the families. He invited Chappell to a Dec. 8 meeting, at which point the other families said she was no longer welcome, she said.

Steven Nikoui, in a written response to questions, said it was “absurd” for Chappell to object to him speaking about their son. She had already done so repeatedly, he said. Chappell said that she had a change of heart, even as she continues to support Trump, and spoke out about other parents after they were “crappy” to her.

Cheryl Rex, the mother of Lance Cpl. Dylan Merola, 20, said she split with the group at the same meeting after she voiced concerns about a proposed memorandum to govern the group. It said that members could be removed from the coalition “for cause” and must keep information shared with the group secret.

Rex, who also had previously spoken out against Biden, said she did not sign the agreement and that others stopped speaking to her after she raised concerns about it and the partisan actions they were pursuing. Bateman “created division within the families” and suggested they should do “political stunts” to generate attention for their cause, she alleged.

Several other family members disputed that account and said the families instead brainstormed how to generate attention. Animosity was evident between Chappell and Steven Nikoui, Hoover said, and the group decided they would rather work with him. He added that he drafted the memorandum to protect both the coalition and Bateman after months of negativity.

“Steve is the dad, and he has every right to say the things he says and do the things that he’s doing in the name of his son,” Hoover said. “No one can take that away from him.”

In March, Steven Nikoui was detained by Capitol Police during Biden’s State of the Union address after an outburst that included “Remember Abbey Gate!”

Shortly before the speech, Bateman posted on X, “Taking off to disrupt the State of the Union w/ @jordanbpeterson,” with a photograph of him and Jordan Peterson, a conservative Canadian author who was attending the speech as the guest of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

Bateman and Nikoui both denied that they had planned the outburst, with Bateman saying his post on X was an unrelated “lighthearted message,” and Nikoui saying it was “absurd” to think that Bateman had any role. In an interview shortly after his arrest and subsequent release, the father told Sean Hannity on Fox News that he “just jumped up” during the speech and it was like “the Holy Spirit got in me.”

Biden and Trump

For three years, numerous Abbey Gate families have openly fumed about their meeting with Biden at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware as their children’s remains were returned. They’ve accused Biden of checking his watch, interrupting them and bringing up the loss of his son Beau to cancer, which they viewed as insensitive.

That behavior stands in contrast to how Trump has treated them, they said. Within days of the bombing, he called many of them individually, expressing condolences and listening as they grieved.

The relationship advanced in summer 2023, when Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) arranged to bring the families to visit Trump at his golf club in Bedminister, N.J. Bateman attended, posting online that Trump had spent hours taking photos, signing books and hats, joining them for dinner and entertaining them with music. Another person familiar with the visit said it also included discussion of how poorly Biden’s interaction with the families went.

Christy Shamblin, the mother-in-law of Sgt. Nicole Gee, said Trump’s treatment at Bedminster and the contrast with Dover convinced her that she should become an advocate for him. “He was just much more willing to be frank and open and honest with us and support our belief that it didn’t have to happen,” she said.

Last month, on the third anniversary of the bombing, Bateman and the families brought Trump to visit the headstones of Hoover, Gee, and Army Staff Sgt. Ryan Knauss, 23, at Arlington. Army officials instructed Trump’s team not to take photos or video at the gravesites due to a federal law that forbids political activities in military cemeteries. The Army’s guidance also said Trump could not bring campaign staff.

But Trump’s staff members, including Trump’s co-campaign manager and campaign spokesman, came anyway. The visit became so fraught that military staff began conversing with congressional aides who were present to talk to Trump, because they did not want to be dealing with an official political campaign. (A photo of Biden visiting the cemetery as vice president in 2010 was used in a campaign social media post 10 years later with a disclaimer.)

To reach the gravesites in August, Army officials said, Trump aides pushed past a cemetery employee and recorded anyway, producing a campaign TikTok. The families responded with a joint statement supporting Trump’s visit. The Trump campaign denied that a physical altercation occurred and, without evidence, accused the cemetery employee of having a mental health episode, which the Army said was false. The cemetery employee decided not to press charges to protect her privacy, and both the Army and the Trump campaign have said they considered the matter closed.

Bateman appeared with Trump during the memorial ceremony, and posted on social media afterward that it was an “honor to accompany” the former president.

Last Monday, several of the families returned to Washington as McCaul released a new investigative report about the fall of Afghanistan. It included few details that had not been previously reported, but laid out again how U.S. military officials were frustrated with civilian leaders in Washington as security began to crumble.

Throughout the tearful news conference, multiple family members said they did not want to be political — while explicitly urging Americans to vote for Trump over Harris.

“Everybody that says we’re being played, we’re pawns, all these other things — for us, it’s not political. None of us asked to be put in this position,” said Cheryl Juels, Gee’s aunt. “It’s unfortunate that it’s turned into this big political thing between Republicans and Democrats.”

Jim McCollum, the father of Lance Cpl. Rylee McCollum, also acknowledged Bateman, saying “he has been a rock for us to help us get through this process.” In a text message to The Post, he said that being a part of the coalition “has been instrumental in my healing process” as they sought answers. “I’m upset and disappointed that someone would tarnish any of us,” he said.

On Tuesday, families convened again in the Capitol rotunda for a ceremony posthumously presenting the 13 troops killed with the Congressional Gold Medal, the highest civilian award that lawmakers can approve.

All 13 were recognized. They include 11 Marines: Gee, Hoover, McCollum, Merola, Nikoui, Lance Cpl. David Espinoza, Cpl. Hunter Lopez, Cpl. Daegan William-Tyeler Page, Sgt. Johanny Rosario Pichardo, Cpl. Humberto Sanchez, and Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz. Also recognized were Staff Sgt. Ryan Knauss, a soldier, and Navy Hospital Corpsman Maxton Soviak.

For some of the relatives, it was the first time seeing one another since Dover.

“It was such an honor because my son deserved it,” said Elizabeth Holguin, Espinoza’s mother. “I don’t get political. I stand for what my son stood for — for the red, white and blue.”

Monika Mathur contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

A super PAC that Elon Musk helped create has ramped up spending on behalf of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in recent weeks, splashing out millions of dollars primarily in swing states.

The burst of activity adds to the evidence of Musk’s growing political alliance with the former president, with the billionaire and his funding playing a key role in the effort to win Trump a second term.

The committee, called America PAC, has spent nearly $33 million since it emerged from a summer spending lull in mid-August, far exceeding the amount it had spent to that date since its formation in late May, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Filings show the money has primarily funded get-out-the vote operations in battleground states including door-knocking, digital advertising and mailers.

In recent days, America PAC has barraged voters in North Carolina with door-hangers and mail pieces. One mailer provided to The Washington Post calls Democratic nominee Kamala Harris “Radical. Liberal. Dangerous” while describing Trump as the candidate who would “secure our border, restore law & order and lower costs for North Carolinians.”

Musk said in a July interview with controversial psychologist Jordan Peterson that America PAC is not intended to be “hyperpartisan,” but materials distributed in North Carolina and online ads reviewed by The Post clearly support Trump and oppose Harris. They largely echo right-wing rhetoric that Musk has recently promoted on his social media platform X, where he has railed against immigration and made unsubstantiated claims of election interference.

Another door-hanger says “Make your plan to VOTE” and includes a QR code that points to America PAC’s webpage, where voters who provide personal information are directed to official pages for voter registration or requesting an absentee ballot.

That reflects America PAC’s decision, like numerous other pro-Trump committees, to diverge from their candidate by encouraging voters to cast ballots however they prefer. Trump continues to criticize voting by mail and claims without evidence that it has allowed millions of fraudulent ballots to be cast.

Whether the committee is targeting the North Carolina voters that Trump needs to carry the state is less clear. The mailers and door-hangers obtained by The Post were delivered to a longtime conservative operative in the state who was already committed to Trump and votes regularly in federal elections.

“It’s a little screwy that I’m on their list,” said the individual, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss campaign tactics candidly. “Stupid to waste money on someone who is a guaranteed Trump vote.”

America PAC also has increased online spending in recent days, largely targeting swing states such as Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.

The committee has more than doubled its spending on X over the past month — from $37,000 to more than $100,000 — with its ads mostly targeted at users in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia, according to data disclosed by the platform on Sept. 13. The PAC’s spending has been much greater on other, larger platforms such as YouTube and Facebook, including more than $383,000 on Google ads primarily targeted in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

A spokesman for America PAC declined to comment on its activities, which, apart from mandated FEC reports, have largely been shrouded in secrecy since the committee’s inception. But several people familiar with the effort described Musk’s close involvement in the project and the entrepreneur’s interest in helping Trump win because of his desire to cut government spending and the candidate’s policies on the border and public safety.

Musk has been intensely focused from the project’s beginnings on the PAC’s ground game, aiming to reach the hundreds of thousands of voters who are generally unengaged in the election or not registered, according to these people.

“He’s more interested in the nuts and bolts, rather than the air war stuff,” one of the individuals said, speaking anonymously to describe private conversations. “If Trump pulls this off, it will be Elon’s PAC that will have heavily contributed to that success because there is no other serious ground game going on.”

Musk joined forces in early spring with Richard Weekley, a Texas real estate developer and Republican donor, and Denis Calabrese, a Republican political strategist, to assemble a team and propose a strategy for a pro-Trump PAC.

Weekley tapped two major firms in Texas — Raconteur Media for digital advertising and In Field Strategies for canvassing — and told them to draw up a plan, according to people familiar with the matter.

During an hour-and-a-half meeting in Musk’s sparsely decorated apartment in downtown Austin, the billionaire told the group that he was looking to trigger a “red wave,” with his main goal being to register more Trump voters in the battleground states, according to a person familiar with the meeting. The group discussed deploying thousands of canvassers in battleground states.

At the meeting, Musk was also presented an advertising plan that included purchasing TV spots, according to the person. Musk said he was skeptical of the need for TV advertising because he grew electric automaker Tesla into a giant without TV commercials. One of his advisers countered that “this is Trump not Tesla.” Musk laughed and said that was a fair point, the person said.

The vendors initially estimated America PAC would need between $100 million to $130 million to pull off Musk’s ambitious vision in such a short timeline. Musk didn’t commit to a specific dollar amount, but said he was open to increasing or decreasing his donations depending on what was needed, the person said.

Musk stayed engaged in the weeks after the planning meeting, checking on progress in hour-long meetings every Friday, the people familiar with the matter said.

During those calls, Musk focused on granular details of the PAC’s operations: how many people had been hired, how many voters had been contacted, how many new people had they registered. Several weeks into the effort, the entrepreneur brought on political operatives Phil Cox, David Rexrode and Generra Peck, the people said.

In mid-July, Peck sent Raconteur and In Field a short email that said the committee was moving forward with different vendors without any further explanation, the people said. Calabrese and Weekley have since been “sidelined” in the effort, one of the people said.

Calabrese and Musk did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Weekley could not be reached for comment.

Since firing its original vendors, America PAC has hired several canvassing firms, including one called Blitz Canvassing, according to FEC filings. A job ad for Blitz in Michigan invites applicants to “come work at America PAC — the super PAC working to elect Donald Trump and defeat Kamala Harris.”

“We want patriots — moms and dads, grandmas and grandpas, those working nights and weekends, or those looking for a 50 hour workweek,” the ad says. “Trump fights for us. Now we need you to come work — to fight back for him.”

On the job application, Blitz makes America PAC’s values and mission clear: “We are fiscal conservatives, believe in limited government, and know that this is the greatest country in the world. We will work to advocate for these ideals every day while fighting to save this country. Is this agreeable to you?”

Blitz is part of a partnership of consulting firms called GP3, where Cox is a partner. America PAC’s filings indicate it is also doing business with two other partners of GP3, Red Maverick Media and IMGE, which have provided printing, postage and digital ad services.

Cox did not immediately respond to an inquiry from The Post.

Since endorsing Trump on the day the former president was shot at a Pennsylvania rally in July, Musk has used his account on X to fiercely advocate for the Republican nominee and to bash his opponent. The entrepreneur has at times amplified false claims, including allegations of widespread noncitizen voting that have prompted pressure campaigns on local election officials.

Some online ads circulated by America PAC also push unfounded claims. One placed on X suggests without evidence that the former president’s political opponents “tried to kick Trump off your ballot. They even tried to end his campaign and take him out for good.”

Musk has also frequently attacked Harris on X. One of his posts this month included a fake image apparently generated with artificial intelligence that depicted her in a red uniform emblazoned with a hammer and sickle.

Days later, an ad placed by America PAC on Facebook and Instagram included a video with a Russian-accented narration that said, “Meet Comrade Kamala — Ready to bring Soviet Union to Michigan.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Donald Trump latched onto a new false claim before a prime-time debate audience of 67 million people: Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating people’s pets. He defended his inaccurate assertions that he won the 2020 election and that Kamala Harris misrepresented her racial identity. The next day he went to memorials for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks with far-right conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer — who last year shared a video declaring the assault an “inside job” and more recently helped spread baseless allegations that Harris got forbidden debate tips through high-tech pearl earrings.

By the end of the week — with some of his allies squirming — Trump was pushing the idea, too.

“I hear she got the questions,” Trump of Harris at his Friday night rally in Las Vegas, suggesting his opponent had the debate topics in advance. “And I also hear she had something in the ear, a little something in the ear. ‘No Kamala, do this — say it this way Kamala.’”

Led by Trump, Republicans have increasingly embraced groundless allegations that were once relegated to the political fringes, ensuring they are part of the party’s message to voters in the final, critical months of this year’s election. Their approach has been on vivid display lately, from the debate stage in Philadelphia to other high-profile public appearances to social media — where false information has spread quickly and Trump has been posting a stream of artificial intelligence-generated images of himself with pets supposedly under threat. In the process, they have perpetuated pernicious stereotypes about immigrants and others that critics have called dangerous.

More than a decade after launching his political career with the baseless allegations that Barack Obama was not born the U.S., the former president and his allies continue to spout meritless tales that find a wide audience on the right — despite renewed objections from conservatives who call it unproductive.

Even some of Trump’s staunchest allies in Congress were aghast at Loomer’s appearances with Trump, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) saying he hopes “this problem gets resolved.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) on Friday called Loomer a “crazy conspiracy theorist” and declared that a “DNC plant couldn’t do a better job than she is doing to hurt President Trump’s chances of winning reelection.”

“Enough,” he pleaded.

Trump defended Loomer at a Friday news conference. Hours later, he wrote in a post on Truth Social: “I disagree with the statements she made but, like the many millions of people who support me, she is tired of watching the Radical Left Marxists and Fascists violently attack and smear me.”

Even as some Republicans suggested that Trump instead focus his attention on substantively discussing matters where the party has a clear political advantage, many GOP leaders dodged questions about the Haitian immigrant claims, and a few prominent Republicans placed the blame on Trump and his history of pushing false, fringe notions into the mainstream.

“If you’re on the ballot this fall, you have to be nervous about this type of distraction,” said former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump in the 2024 primaries. He said outlandish claims such as the viral, debunked rumor about pet-eating Haitians “undermine the substance” of the issue Republicans want to press — in this case, immigration.

“Conspiracy theories have been around a long time,” he said. “But the difference is that you have leaders embracing conspiracy theories rather than responding with the truth.”

Trump’s campaign did not respond Friday to a request for comment.

One of the most attention-grabbing assertions circulating on the right centers on the town of Springfield, Ohio, where a wave of dehumanizing social media posts asserted that Haitian immigrants there were killing and eating people’s pets. After Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), elevated the claim — saying he had reports from constituents but that, “it’s possible, of course, that all of these rumors will turn out to be false” — police officials said there is no evidence to support the notion. But Trump repeated it in Tuesday night’s presidential debate, saying immigrants in Springfield are “eating the dogs” and “eating the cats.”

Springfield, with a population of roughly 60,000, has had an influx of an estimated 15,000-20,000 Haitians who were granted temporary protective status in the U.S. ever since the country was overtaken by gang violence and chaos. But while parts of the town’s economy have been boosted by the immigrant workforce, other services have strained to accommodate the expanded population. After Trump repeated the unsubstantiated smear from the debate stage, a bomb threat used “hateful language” toward Haitians and targeted city hall and other buildings in the city, including an elementary school, according to the mayor.

As the pet-eating claims jumped from social media to Vance to Trump himself, some Republicans aired their frustrations publicly. They suggested their party was too beholden to false allegations that resonate with a hardcore swath of the base but confuse or appall other Americans.

“JUST GOT TRUMP TO REPEAT YOUR LIE ABOUT THE PETS,” read one profanity-laced message the conservative commentator Erick Erickson posted on social media. “CONGRATS ON SETTING THE NEWS STORIES TOMORROW BY LYING SO TRUMP PICKS IT UP.” Trump, Erickson said in another post, “gets what he deserves … surrounded by crazy people who say crazy things.”

Trump’s allies in Congress were once again put on the spot. Ahead of the debate on Tuesday, as Vance took up the pet-eating rumors, Sen. Rick Scott (R) — who is running for reelection in Florida, home to many Haitians — told HuffPost, “I’ve got a wonderful experience with Haitians in my state.” After the debate, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) walked away from reporters when they began to ask about Trump’s performance.

“I don’t respond to quotes,” Rep. John Duarte told online news site NOTUS when asked about the Springfield issue, before adding that he “wouldn’t have said it.”

Still, many others defended Trump’s comments. Darrell Scott, an Ohio-based pastor and longtime Trump supporter who is helping with Black voter outreach, pointed to a resident’s call to police alleging they saw Haitian migrants carrying geese and said Democrats have previously discounted claims that end up having merit.

Trump “has a history of saying things that people discounted initially,” Scott said. When Trump says something, he added, “I take his word.”

David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who now supports Harris, said the claims’ quick spread on the right reflects “the currency of the anti-immigrant movement in this country.”

“How did we get to Haitians eating dogs? Its all rooted in that,” he said. “It’s a simple reflection of where their politics are.”

With polls showing Trump holding a clear advantage on immigration, some Republicans have suggested that there are numerous other, more effective avenues for raising the issue. “There are plenty of things to talk about — including the overwhelming impact that some communities are having on their community services. That impact is undeniable. Other things are a distraction,” said former Republican senator Roy Blunt of Missouri.

Trump on Friday brushed off concerns about his decision to amplify the false claims about Haitians. “The real threat is what’s happening at our border,” he told reporters at a news conference.

When it comes to Loomer, Trump has praised and amplified her on social media throughout his campaign, at one point sharing her false statement that Harris’s birth certificate shows she is “lying about being Black.” (The document Loomer shared accurately lists Harris’s father as “Jamaican” — which does not mean she is not Black. Harris is Black and Indian American.)

Trump on Friday defended Loomer as “strong person” with “strong opinions.” Asked at the news conference about her comments about 9/11 as well as recent racist remarks about Harris, Trump said he would try to learn more and issue a statement.

“I don’t control Laura,” Trump said. “Laura has to say what she wants. She’s a free spirit.”

Asked for comment on Friday, Loomer said she did not believe the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks were an “inside job” when she shared a video with that phrase.

The former president also recently shared posts with explicit nods to QAnon, a baseless conspiracy theory that has gained particular traction among his supporters and casts Trump as a savior fighting shadowy forces — often Democrats or societal elites — who sex-traffic children. The crowds at Trump rallies are dotted with Q references: A “We the Q People” T-shirt, a license plate with the QAnon slogan “WWG1WGA.”

Meanwhile, Republicans have rallied behind Trump’s allegations of vast government conspiracies to thwart him, including Trump’s frequent, unsubstantiated accusation that Biden and Harris are behind his criminal prosecutions. Some have claimed without evidence that Democrats are illegally registering undocumented immigrants to vote; Trump said at Tuesday’s debate that “people are trying to get them to vote, and that’s why they’re allowing them into our country.”

Zachary Mueller, research director at America’s Voice — which advocates for a path to citizenship for undocumented people — said anti-immigrant conspiracy theories are “no longer coming from kooks in the basement.”

“What’s new is how mainstream all of this is,” he said. “What’s new is how central it is to the presidential campaign.”

Although conspiracy theories and false statements have long been present in campaigns, Trump’s candidacy for president ushered in an era defined by powerful political myths that bound him to his followers, experts say.

“Politicians who want greater control over the electorate need to get their followers on board and they can do that by getting them to deny what they see with their own eyes,” said Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of sociology who studies the rise and fall of constitutional governments at Princeton. “How do they do that? They tell people what to believe and then they attack the institutions that would normally be a source of truthful information.”

Trump supporters regularly echo the former president’s false statements at his rallies. But some are eager to focus elsewhere. When Joanne Pierce, who is Native American, repeated the inaccurate claim that Harris isn’t Black at a rally for Vance this summer, her White friend Linda Jenkins tried to intervene.

“Listen to me. Half of her is Asian because she comes from India and the other half is Jamaican,” Jenkins said as they sat together in Glendale, Ariz. She asked if Pierce, 69, had seen pictures of Harris’s Black father.

Pierce shook her head.

“You know what? I don’t even care,” said Jenkins, 73. “It doesn’t matter because I don’t care about people, I care about policy.”

Meryl Kornfield in Glendale, Ariz., contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The Republican Party has largely refashioned itself in former president Donald Trump’s image in the past five years, with downballot candidates jockeying for his endorsement, hugging him tightly on the campaign trail and embracing his policy initiatives.

But many of these same candidates running for the Senate have not replicated the former president’s performance in the polls as Election Day approaches, a gap that is raising concerns among Republican campaigns and fundraisers who fear their candidates are running out of time to win over voters they should already have in hand.

The Senate map this year still heavily favors Republicans, with all of the most competitive races for seats held by Democrats, and polling suggests they are on track to flip the Senate red. But Republicans in seven of the eight key Senate races appear to be trailing Trump, and only one GOP Senate candidate — Montana Republican Tim Sheehy — consistently leads his Democratic opponent, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), making control of the Senate more up in the air than might have been predicted.

In the House, where Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority and control of the chamber will be hotly contested in November, the phenomenon of GOP candidates trailing Trump appears less pronounced and less likely to affect the outcome. Fewer voters appear willing to split their tickets and more Republicans than Democrats represent districts won by the opposite party’s president in 2020. House Republicans are defending 16 seats in districts Joe Biden won in 2020, while House Democrats are defending just five seats Trump won.

In red Ohio, where Trump has a nine percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican Bernie Moreno trailed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by four percentage points in an AARP poll. And in Nevada, Republican Sam Brown, a decorated military veteran, trailed first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen by 14 percentage points in a Fox News poll, even as Trump was within two percentage points of Harris.

Theories from political strategists as to why the candidates are underperforming Trump range from the candidates’ cash disadvantages, to Trump’s unmatched name ID among Republican voters to — in Democrats’ view — flaws with the candidates themselves.

Outspent

Democrats appear in grave danger of losing their 51-49 majority in the Senate, given that Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) is retiring and his seat will almost certainly flip to red. The Cook Political Report this week also shifted its ranking of the Montana Senate race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

But Democrats running for the Senate and groups supporting them are outspending Republicans by a total of more than $200 million, including past spending and future reservations, in Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Maryland and Nevada — six of the eight key Senate races. The GOP has the spending edge only in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where they’re outspending Democrats by $41 million, according to data from the AdImpact tracking firm.

“We are on track to flip the Senate, but Senate Democrats’ massive cash advantage is a real problem,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman said in a statement. “The biggest thing preventing Senate Republicans from having a great night in November is the cash crunch we currently face.”

On Tuesday, NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, the senator from Montana, urged his colleagues during a closed-door lunch to transfer campaign money to boost struggling GOP candidates. “I’m concerned about the financial gap,” Daines said before the meeting, mentioning that Harris recently transferred millions to Senate Democrats, which has gone unmatched by Trump.

Earlier this month, Harris announced a $25 million transfer to the committees that manage Democratic House and Senate candidates’ campaigns and other groups.

“Every race this November matters,” Harris Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement, citing the need for a congressional majority to enact Harris’s agenda.

At the Tuesday lunch, NRSC leadership told Senate Republicans they could lose winnable races due to a lack of funding as their candidates face a barrage of negative advertising.

“A lot of our candidates have been outgunned during the summertime, when tens of millions of dollars have been spent pounding on them,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) told The Post.

Democrats, however, are blaming the candidates themselves, who they are attacking in a battery of ads for past business connections to China, their past statements opposing abortion rights and other issues.

“Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed recruits — their lies, scandals and baggage are repelling voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans,” said David Bergstein, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director, in a statement.

Name recognition

Most of the GOP Senate candidates are trying to unseat Democratic incumbents who are well-known in their states, which makes their paths to victory harder, especially in a busy presidential election year when many voters are not paying attention to downballot races. The Republicans must both introduce themselves to voters and make the case against a well-known sitting senator.

Trump has complained about the Democratic Senate incumbents’ strong performance.

“These people are in Washington for so long and many of them are no good but they are hard to beat, they’re hard to beat,” he said at a rally earlier this month in Wisconsin, referring to Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is leading GOP challenger Eric Hovde in public polls.

But even in states with open seats, like Arizona and Michigan, where the Democratic candidates are not better known, polls show the Republican candidates are trailing them — and underperforming Trump. Kari Lake, a former TV news anchor, has consistently polled behind Trump and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), despite almost universal name recognition. And in Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) generally lags behind Trump — and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D).

“A lot of their candidates push themselves as warmed-over Trump,” said JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic SuperPAC that is spending millions in these races. “None of them run from Trump … It doesn’t always play well.”

Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is bucking the trend in deep-blue Maryland, where he’s outperforming Trump by double digits as he stresses his moderate credentials. He’s running neck-and-neck with Democrat Angela Alsobrooks in the Senate race, according to a recent AARP poll.

Crossover voters

Both Republican and Democratic strategists agree the Senate races will tighten as Republicans and GOP-leaning voters start to come around to supporting the GOP Senate candidate in each state. But polls show Democratic candidates are attracting more crossover voters than Republican ones, and are also leading with independents.

Brown, the Democrat who has represented Ohio in the Senate since 2007, had the support of 14 percent of Republicans and led among independents by 12 percentage points in the AARP poll. Moreno, his GOP opponent and a former car dealer, had support of just 2 percent of Democrats.

The Republican Senate candidates need to win over independents and undecided voters before November, in part because in many cases they are not as “defined” as their Democratic opponents, who have been running ads for months, said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster.

“They have work to do between now and when people start voting,” Bolger said.

Even in the case of Montana, where Sheehy has a healthy lead over Tester in a recent AARP poll, the GOP businessman is losing independents by 3 percentage points to Tester. Trump, on the other hand, leads Harris among independent voters there by 9 percentage points. Trump has also consolidated 95 percent of Republicans behind him, while just 82 percent of Republicans said in the poll they’re definitely voting for Sheehy. Seven percent of Republicans said they would vote for Tester.

The Trump campaign said his performance will lift downballot candidates in November.

“President Trump has unified the Republican Party like never before and also broadened the coalition with independents and Democrats, crossing partisan lines,” Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said in a statement. “President Trump’s movement and his broad base of support will undoubtedly help candidates up and down the ballot.”

But when it comes to Republicans taking back the majority, it doesn’t matter whether Sheehy runs with or behind Trump, so long as he defeats Tester. “Tim Sheehy, he’s doing well,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “So downballot I’m feeling reasonably comfortable, at least for the Senate races.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Boeing’s factory workers walked off the job early Friday, halting production of the company’s best-selling airplanes after staff overwhelmingly rejected a new labor contract.

It’s a costly development for the manufacturer that has struggled to ramp up production and restore its reputation following safety crises.

Workers in the Seattle area and in Oregon voted 94.6% against a tentative agreement that Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers unveiled Sunday. The workers voted 96% in favor of a strike, far more than the two-thirds vote required for a work stoppage.

“We strike at midnight,” said IAM District 751 President Jon Holden at a press conference where he announced the vote’s results. He characterized it as an “unfair labor practice strike,” alleging that factory workers had experienced “discriminatory conduct, coercive questioning, unlawful surveillance and we had unlawful promise of benefits.”

He said Boeing needs to bargain in good faith.

Boeing didn’t comment on his claims.

“The message was clear that the tentative agreement we reached with IAM leadership was not acceptable to the members,” the company said in a statement. “We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”

Stephanie Pope, CEO of Boeing’s commercial airplane unit, told machinists earlier this week the tentative deal was the “best contract we’ve ever presented.”

“In past negotiations, the thinking was we should hold something back so we can ratify the contract on a second vote,” she said. “We talked about that strategy this time, but we deliberately chose a new path.”

The tentative proposal included 25% wage increases and other improvements to health care and retirement benefits, though the union had sought raises of about 40%. Workers had complained about the agreement, saying that it didn’t cover the increased cost of living.

The vote is a blow to CEO Kelly Ortberg, who has been in the top job for five weeks. A day before the vote, he had urged workers to accept the contract and not to strike, saying that it would jeopardize the company’s recovery.

Under the tentative agreement, Boeing had promised to build its next commercial jet in the Seattle area, a bid to win over workers after the company moved the 787 Dreamliner production to a nonunion factory in South Carolina.

The agreement, if approved, would have been the first fully negotiated contract for Boeing machinists in 16 years. Boeing workers went on strike in 2008 for nearly two months.

The ultimate financial impact of this strike will depend on how long it lasts. Boeing shares fell 4% in premarket trading Friday.

Jefferies aerospace analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated a 30-day cash impact from a strike could be a $1.5 billion hit for Boeing and said it “could destabilize suppliers and supply chains.” She forecast the tentative agreement would have had an annual impact of $900 million if passed.

Boeing has burned through about $8 billion so far this year and has mounting debt. Production has fallen short of expectations as the company works to stamp out manufacturing flaws and faces other industry-wide problems such as supply and labor shortages.

A blowout of a nearly new Boeing 737 Max 9 at the start of the year has brought additional federal scrutiny of Boeing’s production lines. 

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

This week’s stock market action may have caught many investors by surprise. After last week’s massive selloff, this week’s turnaround reignited investor enthusiasm in equities. Large-cap growth stocks were the leading asset class in the early part of the trading week, and, by Friday, the clear leaders were the mid- and large-cap stocks.

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that inflation has cooled, which means the Fed will probably cut interest rates. More optimistic is the thinking that there may be more than the 25 basis points (bps) we were expecting last week.

Broader Market Index Price Action

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed higher for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are trading close to their August highs, but the Nasdaq has some catching up to do. In Nasdaq’s defense, it was the hardest hit among the three.

The Nasdaq’s daily chart gives a clearer picture of where the index stands now, technically speaking, battling against resistance from the downtrend line. A break above this line would mean the bulls are still in the lead, but a break above the August high would indicate bulls are charging to the finish line.

FIGURE 1. WILL THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE BREAK THROUGH ITS DOWNTREND? A break above the downtrend would be bullish for the tech-heavy index, but a more confirming move would be a break above its August high.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you participated in the “dip buying” this week, the resistance of the downward trendline is one to watch carefully. And if you missed buying on the September dip, a break above the trendline should be an early signal to prepare to add positions, but waiting for the index to break above its August high would be wiser.

There are a couple of factors to keep in mind. One is that it’s still September, a seasonally weak month for stocks. The second is there’s an FOMC meeting next week. Investors expect an interest rate cut to be announced, but how much will the Fed cut rates? The odds of a 50 basis point cut have risen since last week; as of this writing, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 51%. The probability of a 50 bps is 49%. These percentages drastically differ from last week’s odds, when the odds for a 25 bps rate cut were above 70%.

The stock market is acting like it expects a 50 bps cut. If the Fed cuts 25 bps, though, the market could be disappointed, so tread carefully. A lot is riding on the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Small Cap Revival

The S&P Small Cap Index ($SML) started gaining traction this week, surging on Friday. Looking at the ratio chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), we can see small-cap stocks are beginning to gain strength, but still have some work to do before outpacing the bigger stocks.

FIGURE 2. SMALL CAPS VS. LARGE CAP STOCKS. Small caps surged this week, but they still have more to go before catching up with their bigger cousins.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small caps surged in July when inflation fears were in the rear-view mirror, but fell after concerns of a recession surfaced. Now that interest rate cuts are on the table, small-cap stocks may see more upside. A break above the upward-sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could give IWM a further boost.

What’s Happening With Precious Metals?

Gold prices hit an all-time high on Friday, riding on interest rate cut expectations. The daily chart of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) below shows price breaking above a consolidation area, gapping up, and hitting an all-time high.

FIGURE 3. GOLD PRICES HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. After breaking out of a consolidation pattern, gold prices gapped up and surged.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. Why the rise in gold in tandem with a rise in equities? Investors want to hedge their positions in case the Fed makes a surprise move.

Silver prices also moved higher, as seen in the chart of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). A break above the downward-sloping trendline and Friday’s large gap up are positive for silver traders. If silver prices continue to rise, the series of lower highs could be behind the white metal—for a while, anyway.

FIGURE 4. SILVER SURGES. SLV breaks above its downward-sloping trendline. Whether this upward move will continue rests on how much the Fed cuts rates in next week’s FOMC meeting.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The only known market-moving event next week is—you guessed it—the FOMC meeting. Expectations of a 50 bps cut are rising. How much will the Fed cut? We’ll know soon.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 4.02% for the week, at 5626.02, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.60% for the week at 41,393.78; Nasdaq Composite closed up 5.95% for the week at 17683.98
  • $VIX down 26.01% for the week, closing at 15.56
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group (CAVA); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

On the Radar Next Week

  • August Retail Sales
  • August Housing Starts
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • August Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or “coil” pattern.  While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to think about four different scenarios that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.

The chart of the QQQ looks a lot like the chart of Nvidia (NVDA), with a clear consolidation pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Other leading growth names like Meta Platforms (META) have failed to signal an upside breakout to give an “all clear” signal for the bulls. And defensive sectors continue to thrive, even though the S&P 500 finished in the green every day this week.

Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we conducted a similar exercise for the Nasdaq 100 back in June, and you won’t believe which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment on my channels and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if NVDA breaks out to the upside, META finally pops above $550, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 stocks go right back to a leadership role? That would certainly drive the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their own new highs in the next month or so. If Powell’s press conference next week renews investor optimism and the market prices in a perfect soft landing for the economy, we could perhaps see this play out.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

If the Mag7 names continue to struggle and fail to breakout, but other sectors like financials and industrials surge higher, we could get a more mildly bullish rally here. That would mean the QQQ remains below its 2024 high, but stockpickers rejoice as plenty of opportunities appear outside of the growth sectors.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if the Fed meeting does not go as well next week, and investors start thinking recession again? Defensive sectors have certainly been showing strength in recent months, and it feels like it would not take much to reverse the signs of optimism I’ve observed over the last week. Bonds outperform stocks as investors get defensive, and suddenly we’re all hoping for an October rally to overcome the bearish sentiment.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

You always need a doomsday scenario, and this last option would involve a big time “risk off” move for stocks. Growth stocks rotate lower, and risk-off plays like gold shine brightest as the QQQ retests the August low around $425. Perhaps Powell fails to boost investors’ confidence and the “goldilocks scenario” for the economy seems like a distant memory.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.