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A single-vehicle collision last month involving a Tesla Semi electric truck took 50,000 gallons of water to extinguish and required aircraft to dump fire retardant overhead, according to a preliminary report on Friday from the National Transportation Safety Board.

The crash, which occurred on California’s Interstate 80 west of Lake Tahoe, is being investigated by the NTSB. CAL Fire’s efforts to put out the flames cooled the vehicle’s massive battery to keep it from reigniting and prevented the fire from spreading beyond the crash site, the NTSB said.

The Tesla truck, driven by an employee, was headed to the company’s battery factory in Sparks, Nevada, from a warehouse in Livermore, California, the report said. The incident closed down part of the I-80 for 15 hours.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk first showed off the Semi truck design at an event in November 2017, promising it would come to market in 2020. The company still has not started producing the trucks in high volume, but it is building out production lines at its Nevada facility.

“Preparation of Semi factory continues and is on track to begin production by end of 2025,” Tesla said in its second-quarter earnings report in July.

The NTSB report confirmed that Tesla’s driver-assistance systems, which are marketed as Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the U.S., were not “operational” at the time of the Semi collision and fire.

Tesla did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Numerous companies are making strides within their respective sectors, but, unless you follow the sector closely, you might not be aware of them. That’s what makes StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) reports so helpful.

If you’ve checked your SCTR reports regularly, you might have noticed Insmed (INSM) appear at or near the top over the last three months.

FIGURE 1. DAILY SCTR REPORTS SHOW INSM IN THE OF THE TOP-UP, LARGE-CAP STOCKS.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Insmed (INSM) is a biotech company that has had a near-perfect SCTR score of 99.9 since the end of May.

A SCTR (pronounced scooter) score above 90 is exceedingly bullish, as it signals technical strength across multiple technical indicators and timeframes. Sustaining a score well above 90 for months tells you that something tremendous is happening with the company and its stock.

But if you don’t follow biotech, you’re probably wondering, “What is Insmed? Why haven’t I heard of it? Why is it soaring now? Where was it before it showed up on the SCTR report’s top spot?”

In a Nutshell, Here’s What’s Driving INSM

Insmed’s stock is popping thanks to positive results from a late-stage study of its antibiotic drug Arikayce, developed for treating a rare, severe lung infection. The study’s success boosts hopes for broader FDA approval, driving INSM’s sharp breakaway gap to all-time highs.

Before this, however, what did INSM’s performance look like?

Three-Year Lookback at INSM’s Performance

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF INSM. The recent tests catapulted INSM to all-time highs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Take note of the following points:

  • The breakaway gap (see orange short-term downsloping trend line) from $22 to $49.53 marked a 125% spike.
  • While INSM’s SCTR score has exceeded the 90 line four times in the last three years (see green circles), notice how it barely outperformed, and largely underperformed, its broader industry, represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Biotechnology Index ($DJUSBT).
  • The latest break above the 90 line looks flat-out bullish (see green rectangle), aligning with a 171% outperformance of its industry.

Does this make INSM a strong candidate for a long position? To explore that further, let’s shift to a daily chart.

Should You Go Long INSM?

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF INSM. Note the declining momentum and topping formation.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Here are the main things to keep an eye on:

  • INSM looks to be forming a double top; still, market sentiment reacting to INSM’s latest testing news and developments moving forth may defy (bearish) technical indications.
  • The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows that buying pressure is fading, matching up with the Relative Strength Index’s (RSI’s) bearish divergence signal from overbought levels.
  • Despite looking toppy, for INSM’s near-term uptrend to continue, you’d want to see it break above resistance at its all-time level of $80.53 while remaining above its most recent swing low at the $70 range.
  • If it falls below the $70 range, the next lines of support can be at the previous swing lows of $67.20 and $61.50.

Warning: A deeper correction may indicate that something is off between the technical reading and the market’s reaction to the company’s news or product development.

If INSM falls below $61.50, the long-term uptrend could still hold despite invalidating the short-term trend. Be extra careful, though! INSM might slide to $45–$52, hitting key Fibonacci retracement levels, but a dip that low could mean something big has changed with INSM’s product development, and the price action may be reflecting the market’s response to these (bearish) developments.

Closing Bell

StockCharts’ SCTR Reports spotlight hidden stock opportunities that might not have crossed your radar. Insmed is a great example. It’s been riding high on positive testing news, but its technicals are flashing warning signs. If you want to follow INSM’s price action, add it to one of your StockCharts ChartLists. If not, be sure to use SCTR daily to find other (potentially hidden) opportunities for your next trade.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Tech Rallies, But Remains Inside the Lagging Quadrant

A quick look at the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors reveals that the Technology sector is still the main driving force for the market. Technology now makes up more than 30% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, so it significantly influences the price (movement) of the S&P 500 index.

On this weekly RRG above, the XLK tail can be seen heading further into the lagging quadrant, together with XLC and XLE.

After dipping to the 540 area at the end of last week, the market has recovered some of that ground so far this week. This move has now established the area around 540 as support, while overhead resistance still remains intact around 565. A break of either level will very likely ignite an acceleration in the direction of the break.

On the weekly RRG, this move has had no material impact so far.

The Daily RRG Shows Some Improvement

Only when zooming in on the daily Relative Rotation Graph can we see this week’s improvement.

What is interesting to see on this daily RRG is that the same three sectors that are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG are also inside the lagging quadrant on this daily RRG. XLC and XLE clearly confirm their relative downtrends by rotating at a negative RRG-Heading.

The uptick in tech stocks so far this week has caused an improvement in relative momentum, but not (yet) in relative strength.

But It’s Based On a Narrow Foundation

Zooming in on the technology sector members and using the table below to examine their performance over the last five trading days, we find the RRG provides some insight into where this jump in performance is coming from.

With XLK up 5% so far this week, only 9 out of the 50 stocks in this group outperform SPY. The other 41 are below XLK. With NVDA being one of the top-ranking stocks, this group is already pulling performance up by its market capitalization, especially because MSFT, the other big name inside XLK, is only 0.5% below XLK.

Therefore, the foundation of this tech rally so far is very narrow. Again.

Based on these observations, I will judge the current tech rally as a recovery within an established relative downtrend.

Defensives Pushing Into Leading RRG Quadrant

On the opposite side of the spectrum, three sectors seem very well positioned for further outperformance. XLV (Health Care), XLF (Financials), and XLP (Consumer Staples) have all just entered the leading quadrant, which means a turnover from a relative downtrend into a relative uptrend against SPY. All three are rotating at a positive RRG-Heading, and all three are showing an increasing RRG-Velocity.

Looking at their individual charts combined with relative strength and their RRG-Lines, one sector stands out with a setup we have seen before.

Consumer Staples

At the end of 2021, the consumer staples sector ended a prolonged period of underperformance (20 months), marked by the first vertical dashed line in November 2021, when the RS-Line broke above a falling resistance line. By then, the JdK RS-Momentum line had already crossed above the 100 level, pushing the XLP tail into the improving quadrant.

A few weeks later, the JdK RS-Ratio line also crossed above 100, and the tail moved into leading. Shortly after that move, the market started to drop, and XLP started to serve its role as a defensive sector, outperforming SPY for more than a year while the market (SPY) dropped 20%.

Fast Forward to the Present

The RS-line of XLP has broken above its falling resistance after a downtrend that started at the end of 2022, so almost two years ago — 21 months, to be exact. RS-Momentum rose above 100 a few weeks after that event, and this week, RS-Ratio also crossed above 100, pushing the XLP tail into the leading quadrant.

The price moves on the SPY chart are almost identical on both occasions. There is a peak when the RS line crosses upward, and a second peak shortly after the RS-ratio line crosses above 100.

Given the defensive nature of the Staples sector and the analogy that seems to be playing out at the moment, I am keeping my cautious/careful approach to the markets.

RISK > POTENTIAL REWARD

#StayAlert, –Julius


The mayor of Springfield, Ohio, said a bomb threat Thursday that led to the evacuation of City Hall and numerous buildings “used hateful language towards immigrants and Haitians in our community.”

“Springfield is a community that needs help,” Mayor Rob Rue said in an interview with The Washington Post. The mayor added that national leaders should provide that help and not “hurt a community like, unfortunately, we have seen over the last couple of days.”

The Ohio city recently gained national attention as it became the subject of dehumanizing and xenophobic conspiracy theories amplified by former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who claimed Haitian immigrants there were killing and eating people’s pets. Police officials have repeatedly said there is no evidence to support the claim, which Trump repeated in Tuesday night’s presidential debate.

“In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there,” Trump said at the ABC News debate between him and Vice President Kamala Harris that 67 million people watched. “And this is what’s happening in our country. And it’s a shame.”

When moderator David Muir pushed back, saying that the city manager of Springfield has said there were no credible reports of such claims, Trump refused to concede.

“I’ve seen people on television. … The people on television say my dog was taken and used for food,” Trump said, interrupting Muir. “So maybe he said that, and maybe that’s a good thing to say for a city manager.”

Earlier this week, White House national security spokesman John Kirby called the unsubstantiated reports Vance had pushed “dangerous” misinformation.

“Because there will be people that believe it, no matter how ludicrous and stupid it is. And they might act on that kind of misinformation, and act on it in a way where somebody can get hurt, so it needs to stop,” Kirby said Tuesday, ahead of the debate.

Representatives for the Trump campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday.

Springfield Police Chief Allison Elliott confirmed that Thursday’s threat targeted City Hall and other buildings in the city, including an elementary school. Elliott, who did not take questions at a brief afternoon news conference, also said officials cleared and checked several additional buildings in the surrounding area out of an abundance of caution. She told reporters that local law enforcement is working with the FBI’s Dayton, Ohio, office to identify the source of the threat.

Trump seemingly continued to push the false claims about the Ohio city by posting cat-themed memes to social media Thursday afternoon. One digital illustration shared by Trump on Truth Social shows a litter of nearly identical kittens holding a sign that says, “Don’t let them eat us, vote for Trump!” Another shows an orange cat with a furrowed brow holding a sign that says, “Kamala hates me.” The images have telltale signs of being created with AI, such as design flaws, anatomical oversights and grammatical errors.

In a video posted to the city’s Facebook page a day before the bomb threats, Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck disputed the narrative involving the city and attributed the criticism from those outside the state to “misinformation circulating on social media and further amplified by the political rhetoric in the current, highly charged presidential election cycle.”

Maegan Vazquez contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) recently laid out a potential Trump administration’s approach to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, saying former president Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict could include establishing a “demilitarized zone” in Ukrainian territory now occupied by Russia.

The approach would mark a dramatic change from the Biden administration’s policy — which is focused on providing military and other assistance, along with Europe and other allies — to help Ukraine repel and reverse Russian aggression.

“I think what this looks like is Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans: You guys need to figure out. What does a peaceful settlement look like? And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone,” Vance said Wednesday on “The Shawn Ryan Show.”

The proposed demilitarized zone, Vance added, would be “heavily fortified so the Russians don’t invade again.” As part of the peace plan, Vance said, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality — meaning Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO or other “allied institutions.”

Vance’s comments are the most explicit and recent plan for the war proposed to date by the Republican ticket.

Trump has claimed that if elected, he would end the war. This week, during the presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, he said that if elected in November, he would “get it done before even becoming president.” However, he’s stopped short of explicitly laying out his plan, suggesting that publicizing his strategy would weaken his hand in negotiations.

“I have a very exacting plan on how to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea, maybe not a plan, but an idea for China,” Trump said last week in a podcast interview with Lex Fridman, later adding, “But I can’t give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I’m not going to be able to use them. They’ll be unsuccessful. Part of it’s surprise.”

Vance, in his interview with Ryan, said it was “fake” and “wrong” to consider the conflict “the great humanitarian mission of our time,” adding that it’s a “fairy-tale mindset” to consider the war a battle between “good versus evil.” During the interview, he also said that Russia “should not have invaded” Ukraine, but that “Ukrainians have got a lot of corruption problems, too.”

Since launching an invasion in February 2022, Russia now controls roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory — including Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014 along with parts of the eastern Donbas region — and significant additional area stretching from north to south in the east.

Although some Republican lawmakers are among the strongest supporters of Ukraine, others have been increasingly reluctant to continue providing federal funding toward the war, arguing that the money is better spent on domestic issues such as securing the southern U.S. border.

Individuals who have discussed Trump’s proposal to resolve the conflict, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations, had told The Washington Post in April that his plan consisted of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia.

“There’s a lot of risks to us staying there and trying to encourage the Ukrainians to hold onto Crimea. The question is: How many American lives would it cost to do that? And if the answer is more than zero, then I’m out,” said Vance, a Marine veteran. Although the U.S. military has trained Ukrainian forces in parts of Europe, there have been no U.S. troops in Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion and Biden has pledged there will not be.

Responding to Vance’s recent comments, the Harris campaign pointed to the vice president’s speech in June at a peace summit.

Harris referenced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s cease-fire proposal put forward that month, which would require Ukraine withdraw troops from four Russian-occupied territories, the West lift sanctions imposed on Russia and Ukraine drop its bid for NATO membership. In her speech, Harris said Putin was “not calling for negotiations. He is calling for surrender.”

Vance also said Europe has “underfunded this war while American taxpayers have been very generous,” a charge often made by Trump, who falsely said in Tuesday’s debate that the United States had spent $250-$275 billion on Ukraine — more than twice as much as Europe.

As of June 30, European nations with far smaller economies had collectively spent and allocated considerably more than the United States, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. As a percentage of its economy, the United States ranks lower than 21 other countries, according to the institute.

Vance continued to argue that the Biden administration’s policy is to “throw money at this problem [and] hope the Ukrainians are able to achieve a military victory that even the Ukrainians are saying [they] can’t achieve,” Vance added. “Donald Trump’s policy is yes, be strong, but also be smart. Negotiate.”

A number of Trump advisers have outlined similar plans, including one published during the summer by Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz — who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council. Their proposal, which they said had been presented to the former president, also included telling Ukraine it would receive no more U.S. aid if it didn’t agree to a peace he negotiated.

Vance didn’t specify who would control the “demilitarized zone,” but he said the “current line of demarcation” would remain, meaning Ukraine would not reclaim its territory that Russia now occupies. Throughout the war, Ukraine — with backing from both the United States and NATO — has insisted that all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory be returned. NATO has pledged that Ukraine will be part of the alliance and has set it on a path to membership.

A 10-point peace plan presented to the United Nations in September 2022 by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky included a complete Russian withdrawal and restoration to pre-2014 borders, and an international tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.

Putin, who claims historical ownership of Ukraine — a part of the former Soviet Union — has said he is willing to negotiate but made clear it must be on his terms. His spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has said that any peace plan must recognize “the reality on the ground,” and Russian retention of territory it now occupies — crimes for which the International Criminal Court has already issued an arrest warrant for Putin.

Meryl Kornfield contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

About two in three Americans support imposing term limits on Supreme Court justices, but only three in 10 back expanding the size of the court — a proposal offered up by congressional Democrats and court transparency advocates as a way to dilute the power of the court’s 6-3 conservative supermajority.

The Annenberg Constitution Day Civics Survey also found that 69 percent of Americans believe there should be a mandatory retirement age for the justices.

President Joe Biden called this summer for 18-year term limits for the justices, with future presidents able to nominate a justice every two years. He also backed legislation that would create an enforceable ethics code for the justices, who published their own code last year but did not include a way to investigate potential violations or mete out sanctions.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has endorsed Biden’s proposals, which came in response to ethics scandals involving some of the justices and several rulings that overturned long-standing precedent.

GOP nominee Donald Trump and other Republicans dismiss the ideas as efforts to thwart the court’s right-leaning majority, which Trump cemented with the appointment of three very conservative justices. That majority has overturned Roe v. Wade, ended affirmative action in college admissions, greatly expanded presidential immunity for official acts and weakened the regulatory power of federal agencies.

Nearly half of Americans support allowing the public to vote to overturn Supreme Court decisions on controversial issues, according to the survey. Nearly eight in 10 support the creation of an enforceable ethics code for the high court, and 82 percent say Supreme Court justices should be barred from participating in cases in which they have “personal or financial interests.”

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. announced last fall that the court had agreed to follow an ethics code specific to the nine justices. But the ethics code does not include an enforcement mechanism or any outside oversight of the justices’ individual decisions about whether to recuse from certain cases because of perceived or potential conflicts of interest.

The court adopted its code after news reports revealed that Justice Clarence Thomas had accepted but did not disclose on his financial reports years of luxury gifts and trips from Dallas billionaire and Republican donor Harlan Crow, as well as real estate deals and other financial transactions. Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. faced similar criticism for not reporting a 2008 luxury fishing trip arranged by conservative judicial activist Leonard Leo with private jet travel provided by billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer.

Both Alito and Thomas have said disclosure rules at the time did not require reporting private jet travel or luxury accommodations provided by friends.

Confidence in the Supreme Court plunged 22 percentage points — from 68 percent to 46 percent — between 2019 and 2022, according to the Annenberg survey. And seven out of 10 Americans believe the justices are guided by their ideology and do not rule impartially, according to a June poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Alito also came fire under this year after reports of politically provocative flags flown outside his homes. The justice has said that his wife, Martha-Ann Alito, was responsible for flying both an upside-down American flag at their Virginia home in the weeks after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and an “Appeal to Heaven” flag at their vacation home in New Jersey.

The justice declined calls for him to sit out two Jan. 6-related cases because those flags have been associated with some people who falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen and that Trump had won. Alito said his wife flew the upside-down flag after a neighborhood dispute and the couple were unaware the “Appeal to Heaven” flag had associations with the “Stop the Steal” movement. Both flags had long histories and other meanings not associated with Jan. 6.

Congressional Democrats and court transparency advocates have pressed the justices to adopt a binding code of conduct to restore public confidence in the institution.

Justice Elena Kagan has said she would support the creation of a committee of judges to examine potential violations of the Supreme Court’s ethics code. Having an oversight committee composed of renowned lower-court judges “seems like a good idea to me in terms of ensuring that we comply with our code of conduct going forward in the future; it seems like a good idea in terms of ensuring that people have confidence that we’re doing exactly that,” Kagan said earlier this week during a conversation at New York University Law School with professor Melissa Murray, co-host of a liberal podcast about the court called “Strict Scrutiny.”

Any congressional effort to impose term limits or ethics legislation faces an uphill battle in the Republican-controlled House and narrowly divided Senate. Both proposals would require 60 votes to pass the Senate, but Democrats only hold 51 seats there.

The survey is conducted annually by the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Public Policy Center to mark Constitution Day, which falls on Sept. 17. It also probes Americans’ knowledge of First Amendment protections, the branches of government and party control of Congress, among other topics.

Freedom of speech was the most recognized right guaranteed under the First Amendment, with 74 percent identifying the protection. However, less than half could name most of the rights protected under the First Amendment, according to the survey.

The center’s analysis of the survey results found that the relationship between civics knowledge and support for Supreme Court reforms varies by political affiliation. While the most knowledgeable Democrats and independents are slightly more likely to want to reform the court, the most knowledgeable Republicans are considerably less likely to want to reform the court, according to the survey.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

American presidential races, spectacles of democracy in action, can reach a conclusion that is anti-democratic.

Choosing presidents through the electoral college, a curious form of American exceptionalism, has resulted in presidential candidates who win the popular vote, only to lose the election because of often anonymous electors. Now, an alternative is gaining traction.

Before getting to the consequences of the current anti-majoritarian operation and a look at the alternative, here’s a quick reminder of the odd way Americans pick presidents.

The electoral college is “a process, not a place,” as described by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), which coordinates electoral college functions. Political parties in each state select electors. The winner of the popular vote in each state gets all the electors’ votes in 48 states and the District. Only Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes proportionally. The number of electors in each state equals the number of senators and representatives in the state. The District has three electors, despite having no senators or voting representatives in the House.

Five times in U.S. history, and twice since 2000, popular vote losers won the White House. Most recently that was to the joy of Republicans, but their victories had fatal consequences. George W. Bush won in 2000, and the victory later enabled him to authorize the Iraqi invasion, based on bogus information, which led to the deaths of more than 4,400 Americans and 32,000 U.S. military injuries. Estimates of Iraqi deaths approach a half-million.

Donald Trump’s 2016 electoral college win, despite losing the popular vote, was followed by his 2020 popular vote and electoral college defeats. He inspired the violent Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his insurrectionist supporters who sought to stop the process that made him a certified loser. Seven deaths were linked to the attack, according to a bipartisan Senate report.

“The current system presents a growing threat to the peaceful transition of power. It also strips us of our individual power,” said Robert Reich, a University of California at Berkeley public policy professor who was labor secretary during the Clinton administration. “If you’re a New York Republican or an Alabama Democrat, presidential candidates have little incentive to try and win your vote under the current system.”

He made those remarks in a video advocating the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Rather than engaging a long, cumbersome and difficult constitutional amendment process to eliminate the electoral college, the campaign seeks to significantly modify the process.

Unless blocked by the courts, the National Popular Vote would take effect when states with electoral votes totaling at least 270 — the number needed for victory — agree to participate. That’s just over half of all 538 votes. “Then, the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC will get all the electoral votes from all of the enacting states,” according to the campaign, ensuring majority will rules.

So far, 17 states and the District, with a combined 209 electoral votes, have approved the National Popular Vote. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, signed legislation accepting the National Popular Vote for his state last year. The presidential campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Trump did not respond to questions about the electoral college.

“I’m increasingly confident that we are watching the last election under the current system,” said Patrick Rosenstiel, a National Popular Vote senior consultant. “We can have a national popular vote election in 2028.” Maryland was the first state to join in 2007. The last was Maine in April.

Rosenstiel is optimistic about the 2028 timeline, because, he said, “the proposal has passed at least one legislative chamber in seven additional states with 74 electoral votes, more than the 61 electoral votes needed for the proposal to take effect.”

His optimism is bolstered by strong public support for a more democratic system that ensures the candidate with the most popular votes wins. Sixty-five percent of adults in a 2023 Pew Research Center survey favored that. Among the coming generation, 18 to 29 years old, that jumps to 70 percent. But there is a wide ideological and partisan split. Just 36 percent of conservatives and 47 percent of people identifying as Republican or GOP leaning want to change the current system. That compares with 88 percent of liberals and 82 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning people favoring changes.

The strong, overall favorable rating is driven by endemic problems with the electoral college. Its undemocratic conflict with majority rule has been demonstrated in the victories of John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876 and Benjamin Harrison in 1888, who lost the popular vote before Bush and Trump followed.

Furthermore, the electoral college formula gives disproportional weight to some states and disadvantages others. That leads to presidential candidates concentrating heavily on the battleground states, while the rest get little attention.

As with so much in American, there also are historical and current racial implications. Noting the overwhelming 82.5 percent White population in sparsely populated Wyoming and the much more diverse 35.2 percent White population in heavily populated California, Reich said that “voters in Wyoming have four times more power than the typical voter in California.”

That phenomenon is not limited to those two states, said Wilfred U. Codrington III, a constitutional law professor and co-director of the Floersheimer Center for Constitutional Democracy at Cardozo School of Law in New York City. “What is clear,” he wrote in a Brennan Center for Justice article reprinted from the Atlantic, “is that more than two centuries after it was designed to empower southern whites, the Electoral College continues to do just that. The current system has a distinct, adverse impact on Black voters, diluting their political power. Because the concentration of Black people is highest in the South, their preferred presidential candidate is virtually assured to lose their home states’ electoral votes.”

An e-book by the right-wing Heritage Foundation places those arguments in its “myths and misinformation” category. Electoral college benefits listed by the think tank include preserving federalism, encouraging broad coalitions and moderation, discouraging voter fraud and promoting election legitimacy, though Trump didn’t find this last point persuasive.

Through the “genius and foresight” of the Constitution’s framers, Heritage wrote, “they designed an electoral system that has the ability to adapt to modern-day America and work even better than they could have anticipated.”

The Pew poll shows a strong majority of America disagrees.

Yet despite the overwhelming support for change, Aaron Scherb, senior legislative affairs director at Common Cause, a national pro-democracy organization that supports the compact, wasn’t as optimistic as Rosenstiel is about a new system during a telephone interview.

“It’s challenging to find the next tranche of states” that might adopt the National Popular Vote, he said. To get there, it might take “a Republican presidential candidate to lose the electoral college, but win the popular vote.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Vice President Kamala Harris is pitching herself as a forward-looking bridge to the future — but she’s doing so with a little help from the past.

Since emerging as President Joe Biden’s replacement at the top of the ticket following his disastrous debate performance in late June, Harris has brought on several high-profile veterans of former president Barack Obama’s two campaigns, as well as a top adviser to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.

Now, with Harris seeking to become the first woman — and the first Black and Indian American woman — to win the White House, the question remains if the experienced Obama and Clinton hands can help recreate the Obama magic of 2008. Democrats are hoping they can help Harris harness her newfound enthusiasm and momentum into electoral success as they did with Obama in 2008, as well as deploy the lessons learned working for historic Black and female candidates to help Harris navigate her history-making bid.

“This is all-hands-on-deck, and it doesn’t matter what people did in the Obama campaign or the Clinton campaign or the Kerry campaign,” said John Anzalone, a Harris campaign adviser and pollster, who worked on both Obama campaigns and Clinton’s 2016 bid. “I don’t care where you learned your talents. Everyone who has done these things at a high level and understands what’s at stake…. I’ll carry Walz’s briefcase if it will help the mission.”

The group includes David Binder — who led Obama’s public opinion research operation — taking on an expanded role in the Harris campaign; Stephanie Cutter, Obama’s 2012 deputy campaign manager, taking on an expanded role as senior adviser for strategy messaging; David Plouffe — a top strategist on both Obama campaigns and senior White House adviser — joining as a senior adviser for strategy; and Mitch Stewart, the grassroots strategist on both Obama campaigns, joining as the senior adviser for battleground states. Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, also joined the Harris-Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) campaign last month as a senior adviser to second gentleman Doug Emhoff.

Some of the staffers on the original Biden-Harris campaign are sensitive about the new additions, in part because they view the Obama diaspora as having lead the charge to push Biden out — and there are still some private whispers from Obamaworld that the help is much-needed.

“There was a feeling that the B team was in control of the Biden campaign, and now there’s a lot more comfort that Kamala Harris is bringing in the A team and a lot of those people were people who were on Obama 2008 and 2012, and on Hillary,” said a former Obama campaign staffer, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share a candid criticism. “These are people who have had to navigate complex racial and gender dynamics in American politics and people who handled that deftly.”

But those joining the Harris-Walz campaign — as well as those who have been toiling away for months at headquarters in Wilmington, Del. — say that the new hires are additive and enhance the final sprint to Election Day. Many point to the fact that most of the new faces were specifically brought in by campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, who held top roles in both Obama campaigns and who Harris asked to stay on in her role as campaign chair.

Cutter was even more blunt: “I want to say first that there is an experienced campaign team in place and anybody being added now is simply that — additive,” she said. “The one thing that unites us is our determination to win, and there are no egos.”

The Obama hands bring years of experience navigating thorny and racial issues. Obama, after all, became the first Black person to win the presidency and did so, in part, by managing to talk about race in a way that felt inclusive and non-threatening. Strategically, Obama and his team also sought to not make race a cornerstone of his campaign, believing that voters understood the historic nature of his bid simply by looking at him, and dwelling on his race would have been counterproductive, several Obama advisers said.

Those who worked for Clinton also learned lessons of what does — and doesn’t — work when trying to lift a woman to the highest office.

“Obama understood that if the campaign just devolved into a race war and name-calling, it wouldn’t necessarily be good for him,” said Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist, adding: “It’s a reminder to Democrats in the post-2016 world, where it’s become very fashionable to always call Republicans sexists, homophobes, racists, xenophobes, that you don’t always need to take the bait on their attacks … Sometimes it’s just better to rebut them and say whatever they’re saying is offensive, and then go back to the issues people care about.”

Harris, for her part, has so far very deliberately steered clear of the historic nature of her bid. In her first sit-down television interview since becoming the Democratic nominee with CNN, she stressed wanting to be a president for “all Americans.”

Asked about an iconic photo of her grandniece, in braided pigtails, watching her officially accept her party’s nomination, Harris called the image “very humbling” and described herself as “deeply touched” but otherwise did not delve into the symbolism and emotion the photo conjured for so many.

When asked in the same interview about Trump’s July comments that Harris had only recently “happened to turn Black,” she offered a can-barely-be-bothered seven-word dismissal: “Same old, tired playbook. Next question, please.”

At the presidential debate in Philadelphia Tuesday night, Harris again used a back-and-forth on race not to lean into the historic nature of her bid, but to speak in broader, almost Obama-like terms about unifying the nation rather than allowing race to be a divisive force.

“It’s a tragedy that we have someone who wants to be president, who has consistently over the course of his career, attempted to use race to divide the American people,” she said. “You know, I do believe that the vast majority of us know that we have so much more in common than what separates us, and we don’t want this kind of approach that is just constantly trying to divide us, and especially by race.”

The answers epitomized Harris’s playbook: to generally avoid Trump’s provocations and to respond, if at all, on her own terms. When Trump first made his comments about Harris turning Black, some Democrats urged her team to promptly hit back, to immediately go out and tell her personal story. But Harris’s team resisted, doubling down on their belief that Trump doesn’t get to dictate how she defines herself, or how and when she tells her own story, said someone familiar with the discussions.

“One of the lessons that Vice President Harris’s mother instilled in her is don’t let anybody tell you who you are,” Cutter said. “You show them who you are, and that’s exactly what she’s doing.”

Cutter, a senior adviser on Obama’s 2008 campaign, also served as Michelle Obama’s chief of staff then, helping Michelle Obama parry attacks from the far-right, which tried to paint her as an angry Black woman. Some of those lessons, Cutter said, also apply to Harris.

“The strategy in ‘08 was based on letting America meet Michelle Obama in an unfiltered way, because her authenticity and ability to relate to every American was extremely real, so we wanted to do that before any opposition forces — or, frankly, the media — did that in a tainted way,” Cutter said. “That’s exactly what’s happening with Vice President Harris right now, but in an expedited fashion because of the nature of the race. Letting her be who she is, without anybody else’s filter on it is the reason she is sparking such excitement.”

One concern about the new high-profile new additions, however, is that they are all White — a notable aberration for Harris, who has prioritized elevating women and people of color within her inner circle.

“The thing I’m most worried about with this crop of people is the one characteristic they share is they’re all White,” said an original 2008 Obama staffer, speaking anonymously to share a candid opinion. “I don’t think the conversation about race is the same in the post-George Floyd, 2024 world as it was in the 2008 Obama era.”

Palmieri, meanwhile, said she joined the campaign in the final months because “I feel like I learned really valuable lessons during the Clinton campaign and then in working through a lot of research in the eight years since about the kind of questions we have for women candidates and how you best support them. The notion of working for the male spouse of the first Black and female president was really appealing to me.”

Experts say that female candidates, for instance, often need to highlight their credentials more than male ones — and someone like Emhoff, Harris’s husband, can serve as a compelling validator.

The other aspect of Obama’s victory — especially in 2008 — that Democrats hope to replicate is harnessing the authentic, grassroots enthusiasm that exists within the party and then turning that into a movement of loyal foot soldiers.

“In order to win this election and to capitalize on the sort of enthusiasm and energy and everything that we’re seeing on the ground since the vice president got to the top of the ticket, you have to have an infrastructure that was built to sustain that,” said Quentin Fulks, the Harris-Walz principal deputy campaign manager. “We were on pace building out an infrastructure to do that, and that is why we have been successful capturing this energy and being able to maneuver from one candidate to another candidate, being on the top of the ticket.”

Sixteen years after Obama made history as the nation’s first Black president — and eight years after Clinton nearly made history as the nation’s first female president — the landscape Harris faces has changed, in part because of those who came before her.

“Obama and Clinton had to go and do it first, and I think there’s more and more people who are looking at Kamala Harris and what she brings to the table and the future of America more than race,” Anzalone said. “When people break barriers, like President Obama did, it clearly makes it different and easier for the next person to come along. So I think that in some ways, all the dynamic traits that Harris brings to it, people tend to see those with more clarity beyond her race or beyond her gender.”

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Lawyers for Caroline Ellison, the star witness in the prosecution of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, are recommending no prison time for their client’s role in the implosion of the crypto empire that was run by her former boss and ex-boyfriend.

In a court filing Tuesday night, the attorneys said that, at most, Ellison should be sentenced to time served and supervised release because of her swift return to the U.S. from FTX’s Bahamas headquarters in 2022 and her choice to voluntarily cooperate with the U.S. attorney’s office and financial regulators in helping them understand what went wrong at FTX and sister hedge fund Alameda Research.

Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over Bankman-Fried’s case, cited Ellison’s testimony when he decided in March to sentence the FTX founder to 25 years behind bars.

Ellison, who ran Alameda Research, agreed to a plea deal in December 2022, a month after FTX spiraled into bankruptcy. Unlike Bankman-Fried, who was convicted of all seven criminal fraud charges against him, Ellison pleaded guilty to conspiracy and financial fraud charges, rather than go to trial.

The Tuesday filing also refers to the recommendation of the court’s Probation Department that Ellison be given a sentence of “time served with three years of supervised release” as a credit to her “extraordinary cooperation with the government” and “her otherwise unblemished record.” Lawyers added that the department’s presentence report, which referenced numerous character testimonials speaking to Ellison’s ethics and integrity, also recommended that she not be fined.

“Caroline poses no risk of recidivism and presents no threat to public safety,” the filing says. “It would therefore promote respect for the law to grant leniency in recognition of Caroline’s early disclosure of the crimes, her unmitigated acceptance of responsibility for them, and — most importantly — her extensive cooperation with the government.”

In the filing, FTX CEO John Ray, who has been guiding the crypto firm through bankruptcy proceedings, describes Ellison’s cooperation as “valuable” in helping his team protect and preserve “hundreds of millions of dollars” in assets. He added that she has worked with his advisors to provide information regarding private keys to cryptocurrency wallets that contain “estate assets, DeFi positions, FTX exchange internal account information, the use of third-party exchanges for pre-petition trading, and pre-petition auditing practices.”

The 67-page document describe large swaths of Ellison’s life, starting from her earliest days in Boston and stretching into her protracted and troubled romance with Bankman-Fried. In that time, she “moved around the globe at his direction, first to Hong Kong and later the Bahamas,” and “worked long, stressful, Adderall-fueled hours,” the filing says.

Bankman-Fried forced Ellison into a sort-of isolation, culminating in her moral compass being “warped,” the lawyers say. At his direction, Ellison helped “steal billions,” all while living “in dread, knowing that a disastrous collapse was likely, but fearing that disentangling herself would only hasten that collapse.”

“Bankman-Fried convinced her to stay, telling her she was essential to the survival of the business, and that he loved her,” all “while also perversely demonstrating that he considered her not good enough to be seen in public with him at high-profile events,” the filing says.

An attorney for Bankman-Fried didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The document makes a point of noting that she has “drawn comfort from a new partner,” whose name is omitted from the document, but whom her friends recognize as “supportive and a positive, grounding influence.” She’s also written a novel, that’s “unrelated to the facts of this case.”

Ellison, who turns 30 in November, has a sentencing hearing on Sept. 24, in the same courthouse where she took the stand for several days in Bankman-Fried’s trial. Her former roommates and ex-FTX executives, Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, will be sentenced in October and November, respectively.

— CNBC’s Dan Mangan contributed to this report.

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The share price of Trump Media plunged more than 10% on Wednesday, a day after majority shareholder Donald Trump gave a widely panned presidential debate performance against Vice President Kamala Harris.

The company’s stock price closed at its lowest level since the Truth Social app owner began publicly trading as DJT on the Nasdaq in late March.

Investing in Trump Media stock is often seen as a way to bet on the political fortunes of Trump, the former president and current Republican nominee.

Trump Media has said its business hinges at least partly on Trump’s popularity, and analysts say the company’s value will rise or fall based on his electoral prospects.

The stock drop Wednesday could signal that some Trump’s supporters were not pleased with what they saw at Tuesday night’s debate in Philadelphia.

Liberal and conservative political commentators said Harris appeared more prepared, articulate and even-keeled than Trump, who repeatedly bit on bait that she tossed to throw him off topic.

Harris’ team, projecting confidence, challenged Trump to another debate right after the first one ended.

Trump said he may not agree to that. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, he repeated his claim that Harris only wanted another debate because she was “beaten badly.”

“Why would I do a Rematch?” he wrote in the post.

Trump Media had surged as much as 10% during trading Tuesday, possibly indicating optimism about how Trump would fare in the debate.

The company’s gains on Monday and Tuesday were a respite from a weekslong rout that saw the stock price sink as much as 75% from its intraday high in late March, when then-privately held Trump Media merged with a blank-check firm.

The slump coincided with President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Harris to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket.

It also came in the run-up to the date when Trump and other company insiders can start selling their shares.

Trump owns nearly 57% of the company’s stock. That stake at Wednesday’s closing price was worth about $1.9 billion.

It is unclear if Trump plans to start selling off his stake when a lock-up agreement lifts on Sept. 19.

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