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Trump commutes sentence of Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson

President Donald Trump commuted the criminal sentence of Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson on Friday, just hours before Watson was due to begin serving a 116-month prison term for a multi-million-dollar scheme that included falsely claiming the start-up had deals with Google and Oprah Winfrey, a senior White House official said.

Watson had expected to surrender Friday afternoon to the Federal Correctional Institution in Lompoc, California, before he received word of Trump granting him executive clemency, according to a source familiar with the situation.

Trump also commuted the sentence of one year of probation imposed on Ozy Media for the defunct news and entertainment company’s conviction in the same case.

Trump’s actions remove the criminal penalty imposed on Watson and Ozy.

Watson, 55, was convicted at trial in Brooklyn federal court last July of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, and aggravated identity theft. He was sentenced in December.

In February, a federal judge ordered Watson and Ozy to pay almost $60 million in forfeiture and more than $36 million in restitution.

Watson’s defense attorney, Arthur Aidala, declined to comment Friday when contacted by CNBC.

A spokesman for the Brooklyn U.S. Attorney’s Office, which prosecuted Watson, also declined to comment on the commutation of his sentence.

Glenn Martin, a criminal justice reform advocate, in a tweet on Friday wrote, “We did it,” above a photo of him and Watson.

“President Trump commuted the sentences of Ozy Media and Carlos Watson hours before his surrender,” the tweet said.

″@CarlosWatson is not going to prison today,” Martin wrote.

“First and foremost, thank God for His grace, mercy and the power of redemption. A very special note of appreciation to @AliceMarieFree,” he added, referring to his fellow criminal justice reform advocate Alice Marie Johnson.

“Your advocacy, compassion, and relentless pursuit of fairness have made this moment possible for people like Carlos.”

When Watson was sentenced, then-Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said, “Carlos Watson orchestrated a years-long, audacious scheme to defraud investors and lenders to his company, Ozy Media, out of tens of millions of dollars.”

Prosecutors said that Watson and his co-conspirators between 2018 and 2021 defrauded investors by misrepresenting Ozy’s financial performance, its ongoing business relationships and its acquisition prospects, as well as its contract negotiations.

Ozy abruptly shut down in October 2021, after The New York Times reported that the company’s chief operating officer, Samir Rao, had impersonated a YouTube executive on a conference call with Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank was considering a $40 million investment in Ozy at the time.


This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stocks

Silver Cross Index Tops Beneath Signal Line on SPY

One of the indicators that Carl Swenlin developed is the Silver Cross Index. It is one of the best participation indicators out there! Here’s how it works:

We consider a positive 20/50-day EMA crossover a “Silver Cross”. If a stock has a Silver Cross it has a bullish bias. The opposite of a Silver Cross is a Dark Cross. Stocks with a Dark Cross have a bearish bias.

The Silver Cross Index measures the percentage of stocks holding Silver Crosses. The current percentage on the Silver Cross Index is just 37% so this tells us that 63% have bearish biases. This condition suggests to us that the market has more downside to absorb.

The Silver Cross Index was nearing a Bullish Shift across its signal line, but instead has topped. It is likely to continue declining given less stocks are above their 20/50-day EMAs versus the Silver Cross Index percentage.

Participation measured by the percent of stocks above their key moving averages are all below our bullish 50% threshold. Stochastics have topped and the PMO topped Friday. The short-term rising trend has been broken. This looks like a textbook reverse flag formation that was confirmed with Friday’s decline. The minimum downside target of the pattern would put price near 480. This sure has the earmarks of a failed bear market rally.

Conclusion: The Silver Cross Index is at a very low 37% and has now topped beneath its signal line. Participation, as measured by the %Stocks > 20/50EMAs, is mediocre at best and reading below the Silver Cross Index. This looks like the end of a bear market rally based on the bear flag that was confirmed on Friday.

(Note: This chart is from our “Under the Hood” ChartList on DecisionPoint.com. We have these charts with the Silver Cross Index for all the major indexes, sectors and select industry groups. All subscriptions include access to these charts!)

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Stocks

Stocks In Focus: Three Charts to Watch

This week, we get back to earnings and, sadly, the pickings are slim.

Given these turbulent times, we have two Consumer Staples stocks to examine — Lamb Weston (LW) and Conagra (CAG). They may not be the most exciting charts, but they show clear levels of interest that are worth noting.

There’s also the highly volatile stock Restoration Hardware (RH), which is trading close to a support level. This stock can be considered a high-risk, high-reward trade.

Let’s dive in…

Lamb Weston (LW)

Lamb Weston, best known for its iconic french fries, has gone on one of the wildest rides over the last four years. After a two-year uptrend, the stock has slowly and steadily gone on a two-year downtrend, giving back all its gains.

Earnings have been quite harsh over the last four quarters. There was one gain of 2.6%, with three losses that included a -19.4%, a -28.2%, and most recently a -20.1% decline. Shares now sit 54% off of all-time highs as the company heads into Thursday’s earnings report.

Technically, there is some hope.

Shares made a full roundabout from trough to peak and back to trough again, where they were able to find some major support. The $47.50/$48 level was the original double bottom that started the rally years ago, and now, when re-tested, it held again.

The risk/reward set-up appears to favor the bulls, barring another epic post-earnings drawdown. If shares sell off, the $47.50 level should get tested and could be a good entry point. However, the path to least resistance looks higher from this level. A mean reversion back to its long-term downtrend around the declining 200-day simple moving average would be good for a 23% gain.

Overall shares continue to act rather soggy, but one little quarter could spice things up and lead to a quick and satisfying return.

Restoration Hardware (RH)

Restoration Hardware has become one of the most volatile stocks after earnings over the last year-and-a-half and is one to watch with the report on Wednesday afternoon. Shares have moved an average of +/- 17% over the last six reports with gains of 17% and 25.5% over the last two.

Since last December’s 17% jump after results, the stock has declined as much as 50% from its recent highs. One major factor is the slowdown in the housing market, influenced by rising interest rates, which has dampened demand for home furnishings.

Technically, shares reached a major support level going back four years and held. It was the fourth time in four years that shares moved towards that $210 level and held. Clearly, we have a major level of interest to watch from a risk/reward set-up.

Shares hit extreme oversold levels in its relative strength index (RSI) in early March and have finally bounced. The rally back from oversold levels and a hold of key support should favor the bulls for now.

If you were to trade this into Wednesday afternoon’s earnings, you must watch that support level carefully. It has held time and again, and this would be a great area to dip into the stock with a stop-loss for protection just below support to minimize losses. Any positive reaction could see a fast snapback rally towards the 200-day moving average, which sits 35% above current levels. A simple mean reversion could equate to a nice return, while the stock remains in its longer-term downtrend.

ConAgra (CAG)

ConAgra, the parent company of Duncan Hines, Birds Eye, and Slim Jim, has struggled after earnings, as it has fallen five of the last six times it has reported.

Technically, shares sit in the middle of a range between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The consumer staple has held up relatively well compared to the overall market and has only declined -4.5% year-to-date. It pays a 5.3% dividend and is considered a safer haven in these turbulent times.

The $24.50/$25 level has acted as solid support and could be a good entry point given current market uncertainty. However, the upside has overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average and the $27.50/$28 level.

Overall, this may be a nice place to hide out during turbulent times, but the overall risk/reward is marginal, at best. It may be more rewarding to eat their products than to trade the stock.

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Stocks

S&P 500 Dives After Failed Test of Price Resistance; Bears Are in Control

The key resistance level I’ve been watching on the S&P 500 hasn’t wavered. It’s 5782. The bulls had a real chance this past week to clear this important hurdle and they failed. Badly. If this was a heavyweight fight, the ref would have called it after the first round. It simply wasn’t close. Resistance failed, rotation turned bearish, volatility again expanded, and the bears are celebrating another short-term victory.

Check out this S&P 500 chart:

I’ve written about this to EarningsBeats.com members. I posted this exact chart in my StockCharts.com article a few days ago. I’ve discussed it on my YouTube shows. 5782 is THE key short-term price resistance and you can see above that the S&P 500 literally did an “about face” as soon as it touched this resistance. Sellers were lined up. Now that we’ve failed at 5782, it only makes this resistance level that much more important on any future rallies.

The serious technical damage occurred over the past 3 days as consumer discretionary stocks have been absolutely TROUNCED, while consumer staples hangs near its recent highs. If you recall, it was this HUGE disparity in consumer stocks on February 21st that triggered the massive selling episode. Now here we are again with consumer staples stocks (XLP) outperforming discretionary (XLY) by a mile. Check out this chart:

Doesn’t the action in consumer stocks the past 3 days exactly mirror the action we saw in the 2nd half of February and into the first week of March? Folks, this isn’t good.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

Bear Market Ahead?

The S&P 500, from its recent all-time high to its subsequent low, fell 10.4%, which marks correction territory. The rally we saw off the March 13th low was likely due to oversold conditions, along with March options expiration. On Tuesday, March 18th, we discussed with our EB.com members that odds favored a short-term rally, based on max pain and we laid out key resistance from 5670 to 5782, with the 20-day EMA falling in the middle of this price range. Once we failed at 5782, it was very important to gauge the nature of any new selloff. That’s what I’ve been evaluating this week and it’s not pretty. As you can see in the chart above, money has once again started rotating into the XLP and out of the XLY. This is one of the most important intermarket relationships and it’s screaming BEARISH ACTION AHEAD!

It’s only one signal, however. I announced a few days ago that we’d be hosting a FREE webinar on Saturday morning, March 29th, at 10:00am ET. I plan to discuss several signals that are pointing to exactly what we saw on Friday – more selling. To get a better handle on current market conditions and where we’re heading, I’d encourage you to join me Saturday morning by REGISTERING HERE. If you can’t make the live webinar, we’ll still send out the recorded video to all who register, so ACT NOW!

And here’s a little secret. Shhhhhhh! Market makers are playing some serious games manipulating some of the biggest stocks. I’ll talk a bit about how we can take advantage of that Saturday morning. Hope to see you there!

Happy trading!

Tom

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Stocks

These High-Yield Stocks are Still Winning Despite Market Chaos!

Is a new market uptrend on the horizon? In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down the latest stock market outlook, revealing key signals that could confirm a trend reversal. She dives into sector rotation, explains why defensive stocks are losing ground, and shares actionable short-term trading strategies for oversold stocks. Don’t miss these crucial market insights to spot the next rally before it takes off!

This video originally premiered March 28, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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Business

Robinhood CEO sees Amazon-like subscription model as path to ‘loyalty’ in financial services

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is betting that by rolling out a large enough portfolio of digital investment products, more consumers will be willing to pay a monthly subscription for its product suite.

Subscribers to Robinhood Gold pay $5 a month or $50 a year for perks like 4% interest on uninvested cash, access to professional research, and no interest on the first $1,000 of margin borrowed.

Now the company is adding wealth management features called Robinhood Strategies, which offers curated access to exchange-traded fund portfolios and mixes of handpicked stocks. The service, available to Gold Subscribers, carries a 0.25% annual management fee, capped at $250.

Robinhood also said this week that with its new Robinhood Banking offering, Gold subscribers will get private banking services with tax advice and estate planning tools, perks like access to private jet travel, five-star hotels and tickets to Coachella, and 4% interest on savings accounts. Customers will also soon be able to get cash delivered to their doorstep, saving them a trip to the ATM, though few details were provided.

Tenev told CNBC in an interview that Robinhood’s subscription service could be similar to what users get from Amazon Prime or Costco membership, where their monthly fee feels justified by the quality and quantity of the perks, which keep them coming back.

“My philosophy behind it is subscriptions are about loyalty,” Tenev said. “So if you’re a subscriber to something, then that service is sort of the first in mind when you think about trying something else from that category.”

Tenev said that in financial services, loyalty is particularly important because it’s “equivalent to wallet share.”

Tenev said the number of subscribers increased from about 1.5 million a year ago to 3.2 million today, adding that it’s a “nine-figure business,” meaning at least $100 million in annual revenue.

Robinhood grew in popularity among younger investors by making it easy to buy and hold fractional shares in companies using a simple mobile app, and then moving into crypto. Tenev said on Thursday that over the longer term, Robinhood wants to be “the place where you can buy, sell, trade, hold any financial asset, conduct any financial transaction.”

Robinhood shares are up 19% this year after almost tripling in 2024, when crypto prices soared.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Trump signs executive order to end collective bargaining at agencies involved with national security

President Donald Trump moved Thursday to end collective bargaining with federal labor unions in agencies with national security missions across the federal government, citing authority granted him under a 1978 law.

The order, signed without public fanfare and announced late Thursday, appears to touch most of the federal government. Affected agencies include the Departments of State, Defense, Veterans Affairs, Energy, Health and Human Services, Treasury, Justice and Commerce and the part of Homeland Security responsible for border security.

Police and firefighters will continue to collectively bargain.

Trump said the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 gives him the authority to end collective bargaining with federal unions in these agencies because of their role in safeguarding national security.

The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 820,000 federal and D.C. government workers, said late Thursday that it is “preparing immediate legal action and will fight relentlessly to protect our rights, our members, and all working Americans from these unprecedented attacks.”

“President Trump’s latest executive order is a disgraceful and retaliatory attack on the rights of hundreds of thousands of patriotic American civil servants — nearly one-third of whom are veterans — simply because they are members of a union that stands up to his harmful policies,” AFGE National President Everett Kelley said.

AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a statement, “It’s clear that this order is punishment for unions who are leading the fight against the administration’s illegal actions in court — and a blatant attempt to silence us.” She also vowed, “We will fight this outrageous attack on our members with every fiber of our collective being.”

The announcement builds on previous moves by the Trump administration to erode collective bargaining rights in the government.

Earlier this month, DHS said it was ending the collective bargaining agreement with the tens of thousands of frontline employees at the Transportation Security Administration. The TSA union called it an “unprovoked attack” and vowed to fight it.

A White House fact sheet on Thursday’s announcement says that “Certain Federal unions have declared war on President Trump’s agenda” and that Trump “refuses to let union obstruction interfere with his efforts to protect Americans and our national interests.”

“President Trump supports constructive partnerships with unions who work with him; he will not tolerate mass obstruction that jeopardizes his ability to manage agencies with vital national security missions,” the White House said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Lululemon shares drop 15% as CEO says inflation, economic concerns are weighing on spending

Lululemon beat Wall Street expectations for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, but issued 2025 guidance that disappointed analysts.

On an Thursday earnings call, CEO Calvin McDonald said the athleticwear company conducted a survey earlier this month that found that consumers are spending less due to economic and inflation concerns, resulting in lower U.S. traffic at Lululemon and industry peers. However, he said, shoppers responded well to innovation at the company.

“There continues to be considerable uncertainty driven by macro and geopolitical circumstances. That being said, we remain focused on what we can control,” McDonald said.

Shares of the apparel company plunged 15% on Friday morning.

Lululemon was only the latest retailer to say it expects slower sales for the rest of this year as concerns grow about a weakening economy and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Even so, the Canada-based company said it expected only a minimal hit to profits from the U.S. trade war with countries including Canada, Mexico and China.

Here’s how the company did compared with what Wall Street was expecting for the quarter ended Feb. 2, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Fourth-quarter revenue rose from $3.21 billion during the same period in 2023. Full-year 2024 revenue came in at $10.59 billion, up from $9.62 billion in 2023.

Lululemon’s fiscal 2024 contained 53 weeks, one week longer than its fiscal 2023. Excluding the 53rd week, fourth-quarter and full-year revenue both rose 8% year over year for 2024.

Lululemon expects first-quarter revenue to total $2.34 billion to $2.36 billion, while Wall Street analysts were expecting $2.39 billion, according to LSEG. The retailer anticipates it will post full-year fiscal 2025 revenue of $11.15 billion to $11.30 billion, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $11.31 billion.

For the first quarter, the company expects to post earnings per share in the range of $2.53 to $2.58, missing Wall Street’s expectation of $2.72, according to LSEG. Full-year earnings per share guidance came in at $14.95 to $15.15 per share, while analysts anticipated $15.31.

CFO Meghan Frank said on the Thursday earnings call that gross margin for 2025 is expected to fall 0.6 percentage points due to higher fixed costs, foreign exchange rates and U.S. tariffs on China and Mexico.

Lululemon reported a net income for the fourth quarter of $748 million, or $6.14 per share, compared with a net income of $669 million, or $5.29 per share, during the fourth quarter of 2023.

Comparable sales, which Lululemon defines as revenue from e-commerce and stores open at least 12 months, rose 3% year over year for the quarter. The comparison excludes the 53rd week of the 2024 fiscal year. Analysts expected the metric to rise 5.1%.

Comparable sales in the Americas were flat, while they grew 20% internationally. Lululemon has been facing a sales slowdown in the U.S., although McDonald said its U.S. business stabilized in the second half of the year and partially attributed the improvement to new merchandise. He added that Lululemon will expand its stores to Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Turkey and the Czech Republic this year.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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FCC is investigating Disney and ABC for DEI initiatives

The Federal Communications Commission has alerted the Walt Disney Company and its ABC unit that it will begin an investigation into the diversity, equity and inclusion efforts at the media giant.

The FCC, the agency that regulates the media and telecommunications industry, said in a letter dated Friday that it wants to “ensure that Disney and ABC have not been violating FCC equal employment opportunity regulations by promoting invidious forms of DEI discrimination.”

“We are reviewing the Federal Communications Commission’s letter, and we look forward to engaging with the commission to answer its questions,” a Disney spokesperson told CNBC.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, who was recently appointed by President Donald Trump, began a similar investigation into Comcast and NBCUniversal in early February.

The inquiry comes after Trump signed an executive order looking to end DEI practices at U.S. corporations in January. The order calls for each federal agency to “identify up to nine potential civil compliance investigations” among publicly traded companies, as well as nonprofits and other institutions.

“For decades, Disney focused on churning out box office and programming successes,” Carr wrote in the letter to CEO Bob Iger. “But then something changed. Disney has now been embroiled in rounds of controversy surrounding its DEI policies.”

An FCC spokesperson didn’t comment beyond the letter.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and NBC News.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stocks

Unveiling Market Trends: What’s Triggering a Midweek Bearish Shift?

Wednesday’s stock market price action revealed a caution sign, and with it, any hope that rose from Monday’s price action just got buried. The Tech sector sold off, with the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) falling over 2%.

The chart of $COMPQ indicated hesitation. Of the three broader indexes, it was the one that didn’t cross above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and its breadth wasn’t showing signs of expanding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) still holds on to its position above its 200-day SMA and 21-day EMA.

The S&P 500 is a concerning chart. The index crossed above its 200-day SMA on Monday; then, on Tuesday, there was a doji candlestick indicating indecision among investors. Then comes Wednesday, and we see a wide-range down day that closed well below the midpoint of Monday’s trading range. This satisfied the conditions for an evening doji star, which is a bearish reversal pattern. In addition, the index wasn’t able to close above its January low. This doesn’t leave a warm, fuzzy feeling.

FIGURE 1. BEARISH REVERSAL IN THE S&P 500 DAILY CHART? The evening doji star is an indication of a bearish reversal. Will this hold or will the pattern fail? It’s something to watch for as tariff concerns remain front and center. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Consumer Discretionary Sells Off

The back and forth with tariffs was the main cause of Wednesday’s selloff. The news of President Trump prepping to sign an auto tariff statement after the market closes elevated investor uncertainty. The automobile industry was the worst performer in the Consumer Discretionary sector (see MarketCarpet below).

FIGURE 2. CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR’S MARKETCARPET. The automobile industry was the worst hit in this sector. After the tariff announcement on Wednesday, the sector could see further selling. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), the largest weighted stock in the Automobile sub-industry, fell 5.58%. There were many other auto manufacturers such as Toyota Motor (TM), Ferrari (RACE), General Motors (GM), and Honda Motor Co. (HMC), who experienced a similar fate.

Mr. Market didn’t know the tariff details before the close, so the selloff was in anticipation of 25% tariffs being implemented. At around 5:30 pm EDT, President Trump announced the implementation of 25% tariffs on autos manufactured outside of the U.S. Shares of Ford Motor Co. (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA) were trading lower after Wednesday’s close. Don’t be surprised if Thursday is a volatile trading day.

Semis Tumble

Things weren’t so rosy in AI land, either. Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) scaled back on its data center buildouts, which didn’t help tech stocks. The Technology sector was the worst-performing S&P sector on Wednesday.

The Technology sector MarketCarpet below gives a good picture of the magnitude of the selloff. Semiconductors were the worst hit, with NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) seeing significant declines.

FIGURE 3. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR MARKETCARPET. The Technology sector was the hardest hit on Wednesday. As you can see, it was a sea of red with the large-cap weighted stocks seeing significant selloffs. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What a difference a day makes. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is inching higher after its slide since March 11. It’s back above 18 indicating that fear is back on the table.

Fasten Your Seatbelts

The rest of this week could be volatile. Keep your eyes on the macro picture. Treasury yields held on, but could rise further on Wednesday. As a result, the U.S. dollar could strengthen against the Japanese yen. If inflation expectations and concerns about economic growth rise, precious metals could shine.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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