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In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius evaluates the completed monthly charts for August, noting the strength of defensive sectors. He then analyzes a monthly RRG and seeks alignment for the observations from the price charts. Could “sideways” be the most positive scenario for the S&P 500 these next few weeks?

This video was originally published on September 3, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

I hope you had a relaxing, restful long weekend, and welcome to September.

It was a pretty dismal post-Labor Day trading session. We all know September is the worst for stocks, but let’s hope the first day’s action doesn’t foretell how the rest of it will play out. All the broader equity indexes are down, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) closed lower by over 3%.

The StockCharts MarketCarpet was a sea of red, with technology stocks leading down. Some pockets of strength can be seen in Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Utilities, the leading sectors in Tuesday’s trading.

FIGURE 1. A SEA OF RED. The StockCharts MarketCarpet gives you a good idea of stock market action.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tuesday’s Manufacturing PMI was 47.2%, which is lower than expected. This suggests that manufacturing activity is contracting, which may have been the catalyst that led to the stock market selloff.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX) below shows the index hit its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and bounced off it. But what’s less discouraging is that it closed below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a consolidation range.

FIGURE 2. THE S&P 500 BREAKS BELOW ITS CONSOLIDATION RANGE. If momentum continues to slow, there could be more selling pressure in the near-term.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Overall, the pullback is still well above its August low, so, technically, Tuesday’s selloff isn’t as bad as it may seem. But it’s not all that great, either. The full stochastic oscillator in the lower panel shows declining momentum, so there’s a chance that the chart could get ugly.

Techs Tank

The Nasdaq Composite chart looks even worse. The index is flirting with its 100-day SMA and is below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The stochastic oscillator is also declining much steeper than for the S&P 500.

FIGURE 3. TECH STOCKS TANK. The Nasdaq Composite is flirting with the support of its 100-day moving average. The stochastic oscillator in the lower panel is in a steep decline.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The selling frenzy in Tech stocks isn’t new, especially in semiconductor stocks. Nvidia’s earnings weren’t good enough for the market, and Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) will announce its earnings on Thursday. AVGO stock closed lower by over 6%, and NVDA closed over 9% lower. If Broadcom doesn’t report strong enough earnings, there could be more of a selloff in the Technology sector.

Of course, time will tell, but it’s worth watching the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX), which rose 38.13%. That may seem high, but it’s not as high as the August 5 spike.

FIGURE 4. THE FEAR INDEX ($VIX) ROSE OVER 38% ON TUESDAY. A spiking VIX is something to watch since it indicates fear among investors, which means further selling could occur.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

When the VIX starts spiking, it indicates nervousness is in the air. If a rising VIX keeps you up at night, it may be better to take some profits, especially in your most profitable positions. There’s a chance that investors may rotate out of mega-cap tech stocks and into other sectors such as Financials, Utilities, and Health Care.

But today’s market action isn’t showing strength anywhere. Precious metals, oil prices, and cryptocurrencies all fell. The only area that showed strength was the US dollar and bond prices, the latter due to a fall in Treasury yields.

Closing Position

There’s a chance the market could digest today’s Manufacturing PMI data and recover, but there are two factors that warrant cautious trading—a rising VIX and September’s seasonal weakness. Earnings from Broadcom, Inc. and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data will be critical variables.


Links to Charts in This Article

  1. Daily chart of S&P 500.
  2. Daily chart of Nasdaq Composite.
  3. Daily chart of $VIX.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for the Biden administration to strip millions of health-care dollars from Oklahoma over its refusal to direct patients to information about abortions — a federal requirement that the state says would be at odds with its strict ban on terminating pregnancies.

Last year, the Biden administration diverted $4.5 million from Oklahoma’s family planning program, which primarily serves low-income or uninsured patients.

In challenging that decision, Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond told the Supreme Court that state health-care organizations cannot be punished for not advising patients about ending their pregnancies. The Health and Human Services Department, the state said, is illegally imposing conditions on funding that are not specified in the half-century-old nationwide family planning program known as Title X.

After the Supreme Court eliminated the nationwide right to abortion in 2022, Oklahoma was one of more than a dozen states to broadly prohibit the procedure. State law also makes it a crime for any person to try to persuade a woman to terminate a pregnancy or to procure an abortion for any woman.

In July, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit upheld the federal government’s right to deny the funding. A divided three-judge panel noted that the Health and Human Services Department had told the state that it could meet its obligation by giving patients a phone number for a national hotline that provides neutral information about pregnancy options, including abortion.

Oklahoma then asked the Supreme Court to intervene, seeking action by Aug. 30 to stop the Biden administration from withholding another year’s worth of the health-care funding.

As is typical in emergency orders, the Supreme Court majority did not explain its reasons for refusing Oklahoma’s request to immediately intervene. Conservative justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito, Jr. and Neil M. Gorsuch said they would have granted the state’s request.

While the federal government has long prohibited organizations from using Title X money to pay for abortions, the rules for implementing the statute and distributing about $286 million in annual federal funds have differed depending on the administration in power — and have repeatedly been subject to litigation.

In 2019, the Trump administration rewrote the rules, barring clinics that receive federal family planning aid from referring patients for abortions. That sparked a long-running legal battle with Planned Parenthood Federation of America and other groups over what opponents criticized as an “abortion gag rule.”

The Biden administration reversed course in 2021, saying it would no longer ban clinics from receiving funding. It later began to withhold funds from organizations that refused to make referrals.

Solicitor General Elizabeth B. Prelogar, defending the administration, told the court that there was no reason for the justices to take emergency action while litigation over the matter continues. The Oklahoma legislature has already provided substitute funding to make up last year’s shortfall, she wrote in a court filing, “and there is no reason to doubt that it can do the same this year.”

The court, she added, “should not encourage the invocation of its emergency docket in cases with such modest practical stakes.”

In a filing, Oklahoma’s attorneys said the Biden administration’s position also is not compatible with the Supreme Court’s decision in June to get rid of the 40-year-old legal doctrine known as Chevron. The high court’s ruling means judges no longer have to automatically defer to a federal agency’s reasonable interpretation of ambiguous language in a statute — which is what Oklahoma says is at issue with sections of Title X.

Oklahoma and 11 other states initially challenged the administration’s new rules requiring them to make referrals. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled against the states, in part because the federal government said providers with religious or moral objections would not be required to refer patients for abortions.

That case is still pending in the lower courts, and the issue could eventually return to the Supreme Court.

Separately, the 6th Circuit on Aug. 26 rejected a similar challenge from Tennessee after the federal government stripped $7 million in Title X funds from that state. As it had with Oklahoma, HHS told Tennessee officials that they could meet the conditions for funding by providing patients with the phone number for a hotline that offers counseling about prenatal care, adoption and abortion as well as information about where those services can be obtained if a patient requests it.

The appeals court said Congress made clear that complying with the federal government’s requirements is a “clear and unambiguous condition of receiving a Title X grant.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The late Sen. John McCain’s youngest son, Army 1st Lt. Jimmy McCain, told CNN on Tuesday that he’s changed his voter registration to Democrat and plans to support Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

McCain’s endorsement — which the Harris campaign promoted in a news release and on social media Tuesday — is the latest in a long line from Republicans who have come out against voting for Donald Trump. As Democrats make the case for Harris with independent voters and disaffected Republicans, the push for the party’s big tent was recently on display at the Democratic National Convention, which included several Republicans and former Trump officials in the lineup of speakers.

McCain explained the change after years as a registered independent and expressed outrage over a recent altercation involving Trump campaign staff at Arlington National Cemetery. He called it a “violation” and “a painful experience.”

Trump was at the cemetery last month to mark the third anniversary of a suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. troops during the evacuation of Afghanistan. Trump and his staff defied requests from cemetery officials to avoid taking photos or videos among the gravestones, with the aim of adhering to a federal law that forbids campaign activities at military cemeteries. A female cemetery worker was “abruptly pushed aside” by male Trump aides as she sought to enforce the guidelines, cemetery officials said.

“It just blows me away,” said McCain, who has served in the military for 17 years. He added that “these men and women that are laying in the ground there have no choice” of whether to be a backdrop for Trump’s political campaign.

“I just think that for anyone who’s done a lot of time in their uniform, they just understand that inherently — that it’s not about you there. It’s about these people who gave the ultimate sacrifice in the name of their country,” McCain remarked.

Representatives for the Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump on Tuesday claimed that there was “no conflict” or “fighting” when he visited Arlington National Cemetery last week. In a post shared on Truth Social, the former president falsely claimed that reports of the altercation were “made up” by Harris, who had no involvement in the Republican candidate’s visit. The altercation has been confirmed by Arlington National Cemetery — which in a statement said “there was an incident, and a report was filed” — and Army officials.

Meghan McCain, John McCain’s daughter, said Tuesday that she does not plan to support either Harris or Trump.

“I greatly respect the wide variety of political opinions of all of my family members and love them all very much,” Meghan McCain wrote on X. “I however, remain a proud member of the Republican Party and hope for brighter days ahead. (Not voting for Harris or Trump, hope that clears things up).”

While other members of the McCain family have distanced themselves from Trump, Jimmy McCain is the first to publicly join the Democratic Party. It follows years of tension between the late senator’s family and the Republican presidential nominee.

Jimmy McCain told CNN that he feels that Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), “embody a group of people that will help make this country better, that will take us forward.” He also said he “could never forgive” Trump for what he said about his father.

John McCain, a senator for Arizona who was the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was a U.S. Navy captain who was shot down over Vietnam and held as a prisoner of war for 5½ years. Trump has for years mocked McCain, saying he was not a war hero because he was captured by the North Vietnamese and asserting after McCain died that the late senator’s book “bombed.” Trump also complained during this campaign cycle about the senator’s vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act, and earlier claimed that the McCain family did not thank him for approving the senator’s state funeral.

Despite political differences, McCain maintained a close bond with Joe Biden, with whom he served in the Senate.

The late senator’s widow, Cindy McCain, crossed party lines and endorsed Biden in 2020. After becoming president, Biden appointed her the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Agencies for Food and Agriculture, and she has been serving as the executive director of the World Food Program since last year.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

“We didn’t lose one person in 18 months. And then they took over that disaster.”

— Former president Donald Trump, in a video of him at Arlington National Cemetery speaking to the families of U.S. troops killed at Abbey Gate in Afghanistan, posted on TikTok, Aug. 28

This TikTok of Trump’s controversial visit to Arlington, where he marked the third anniversary of a suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. troops during the chaotic evacuation of Afghanistan overseen by President Joe Biden, has been viewed more than 11 million times. Federal law prohibits election-related activities at military cemeteries, but Trump’s entourage pushed past a cemetery employee who tried to prevent Trump’s aides from bringing cameras, according to the Army.

Those cameras appear to have recorded Trump saying these words to the Gold Star families. (The TikTok shows him talking to families as the words are spoken as a voice-over.) In his phrasing, it sounds as if no troops were killed in Afghanistan during the last 18 months of his presidency. That’s false, though as we will show, there was an 18-month gap with no fatalities across Trump’s and Biden’s combined presidencies.

The Facts

A Trump campaign spokesman did not respond to queries about why Trump says there were no fatalities over 18 months. Using the Defense Casualty Analysis System, we first reviewed every 18-month period in Trump’s four years as president, looking only at deaths in hostile action in Afghanistan during Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, not accidental deaths such as a in a vehicle or helicopter crash. There was no such period.

Then we focused on the last 18 months of his presidency — July 20, 2019, to Jan. 20, 2021. That makes the most sense since Trump referenced Biden’s taking over. The Defense Department database showed 12 deaths from hostile action in that period. We double-checked with the news releases issued by the Pentagon in that period and confirmed the 12 names.

The last two deaths occurred on Feb. 8, 2020. Javier Jaguar Gutierrez of San Antonio and Antonio Rey Rodriguez of Las Cruces, New Mexico, both 28, were fatally ambushed by a rogue Afghan policeman. Trump, along with Vice President Mike Pence, flew to Dover Air Force Base when the bodies arrived in the United States.

That was 11 months before Trump’s presidency ended. The suicide bombing at Kabul’s airport that killed the 13 troops took place on Aug. 26, 2021 — seven months into Biden’s presidency. The last 11 months of Trump’s presidency and the first seven of Biden’s add up to 18 months.

In March 2020, Trump approved an agreement with the Taliban (not the Afghan government at the time) for all U.S. forces to leave the country by May 1, 2021. He sealed the deal with a phone conversation with Abdul Ghani Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban and head of its political office in Qatar. “We had a good long conversation today and, you know, they want to cease the violence,” Trump told reporters at the time. “They’d like to cease violence also.”

Despite abandoning many of Trump’s policies, Biden honored this one, just stretching out the departure by a few months in 2021.

Trump even celebrated Biden’s decision to stick with the withdrawal. “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1st, and we should keep as close to that schedule as possible,” he said in a written statement after Biden announced he would continue the departure set in motion by Trump.

At a political rally on June 26 that year, weeks before the collapse of the Afghan government, Trump bragged that he had made it difficult for Biden to change course. “I started the process. All the troops are coming back home. They couldn’t stop the process,” he said. “Twenty-one years is enough, don’t we think? Twenty-one years. They [the Biden administration] couldn’t stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop the process.”

In about a half-dozen campaign rallies and media events last month, Trump mentioned his conversation with the Taliban leader and tied it to the 18-month period without deaths in hostile action. But often Trump left the impression — as in the TikTok with the Gold Star families — that this only happened on his watch. Here are some examples:

  • “Abdul was not playing games with me. You know, they were executing a lot of our soldiers. And I spoke to him, I said, ‘Abdul, don’t do it anymore. There’ll be no more.’ Anyway, I said it pretty tough. And you know what? For 18 months, we didn’t have one American soldier killed in Afghanistan. And then I left, and then I left, and there’s a bunch of incompetent people took over, and it all started up again.” (Rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Aug. 17.)
  • “We had no soldiers killed for 18 months while I was there because they knew — don’t play around with our soldiers.” (Rally in Asheboro, N.C., Aug. 21.)
  • “I dealt with Abdul, and he’s still the leader, strong man, smart man, but he understood that if he did anything because we were losing a lot of people to the snipers. … And he understood. And he said, ‘Yes, Your Excellency, I understand.’ He called me Your Excellency. I wonder if he calls that to Biden. I doubt it, right? But he understood that and he respected us. And for 18 months, not one American soldier was killed, not one.” (Remarks at a news conference in Bedminster, N.J., Aug. 15.)

But on occasion, Trump gets it close to correct, such as in these remarks during a news conference in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 8: “You know, if you go back and check your records, for 18 months, I had a talk with Abdul. Abdul was the leader of the Taliban, still is. But I had a strong talk with him. For 18 months, not one American soldier was shot at or killed, not even shot at, 18 months.”

The Defense Department determined that the suicide bomber, Abdul Rahman al-Logari, was not a member of the Taliban but part of the Islamic State-Khorasan, a regional branch of the Islamic State terrorist group. He was one of several thousand ISIS-K members released by the Taliban in mid-August 2021 and one of several possible suicide bombers the group had available for the attack, according to a review of the investigation completed in April.

The Pinocchio Test

Trump has a basis for citing 18 months without a death from hostile action in Afghanistan. The period of relative quiet began with his deal with the Taliban. A case could be made that the seeds of the collapse of the Afghan government — and the chaotic withdrawal of Americans that accompanied it — stemmed from the same deal.

But Trump errs in suggesting — as in the TikTok with the Gold Star families gathered in Arlington — that those 18 months took place entirely during his presidency. He earns Two Pinocchios.

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This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

No one expected the 922-page policy document to go viral.

The conservative Heritage Foundation quietly began working on Project 2025 in 2022, pulling together a wish list of far-right policy proposals the group hoped former president Donald Trump would enact if he won back the White House. The report was published with little notice in 2023.

Then, in March, the Biden-Harris campaign began attacking the conservative initiative through a coordinated push on social media timed to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, warning the public that Project 2025 was a blueprint for the extreme and dangerous agenda a second Trump term would usher in.

In June, comedian John Oliver devoted an entire episode of his popular HBO show to the policy initiative, and actress Taraji P. Henson used her high-profile role as host of the BET Awards to raise alarms about it.

“Pay attention! It’s not a secret: Look it up!” Henson told the audience, in a clip that was viewed more than 8 million times in 48 hours. “… The Project 2025 plan is not a game. Look it up!”

By the time Trump took to Truth Social on July 5 to personally disavow the initiative — “I know nothing about Project 2025,” he wrote, adding that some of the proposals were “absolutely ridiculous and abysmal” — the topic had already exploded on social media, and Democrats had alighted on a potent message that could damage Trump politically.

How an obscure Heritage Foundation policy tome emerged as a defining Democratic attack of the 2024 election is a story of fortuitous mentions, organic online momentum, an ominous-sounding name and a document that captures the myriad fears many Democratic voters have about what another Trump presidency could mean.

The sweeping policy document lays out how the next president could concentrate power in the executive branch and remove civil service protections for legions of federal workers to replace them with loyalists. It provides detailed plans for executing some of Trump’s most controversial ideas, such as eliminating the Department of Education; moving the Justice Department under presidential control; shuttering the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which forecasts weather and tracks climate change, and rolling back other environmental protections; and launching mass deportations, including of immigrants who came to the United States as children, often known as “dreamers.”

The document also includes other policies that Trump has not embraced, including a call for the elimination of the popular Head Start program, rescinding Food and Drug Administration approval of mifepristone — a key abortion medication — and using an 1873 law to prevent shipments of abortion medication through the mail, which he recently told CBS News he would not enforce.

A line-by-line review of the Project 2025 document by CBS News identified 700 policy proposals and found that at least 270 of them matched Trump’s past or current campaign proposals. The review also found that at least 28 of the project’s 38 primary authors — nearly 75 percent — worked in the Trump administration.

Jef Pollock, whose firm, Global Strategy Group, is one of the pollsters for Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, said the forward-looking nature of Project 2025 — articulating in granular detail what a hypothetical second Trump term could look like — helped crystallize voter fears in a tangible way.

“Voters understand that this is an actual, written plan for extremist and dangerous ideas that are going to be implemented,” Pollock said. “We know that voters have some Trump amnesia. They don’t remember all the bad things he did as president. Now it’s like, ‘Well, even if you’ve forgotten about what he did before, what he wants to do now is even worse.’”

‘An unwelcomed distraction’

Despite the best efforts of the Heritage Foundation, there was little fanfare when the conservative think tank first published the Project 2025 document, titled “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,” in April 2023.

But as soon as Project 2025 began getting a sliver of mainstream media attention months later, Trump and his campaign tried to distance him from the document, even though many of his former top aides — including former Office of Management and Budget director Russell Vought and former personnel chief John McEntee — advised or contributed to the effort.

In November, Trump advisers released a statement saying that while such outside efforts were “certainly appreciated and can be enormously helpful,” they were merely “recommendations.”

Another statement came in December, when the same advisers wrote that the outside suggestions were not officially sanctioned and were “an unwelcomed distraction.”

Trump’s campaign has also redirected voters to the former president’s own Agenda 47 — a 20-point missive outlining his priorities — as well as the Republican Party platform, which his campaign carefully streamlined before adopting it in July.

“It’s literally the definition of the ‘big lie’ theory — that if you say the same thing over and over and over again enough times, you can persuade people it’s true and they’ve attempted that,” Trump spokesman Brian Hughes said.

“The only person deciding what President Trump will say or what President Trump will do as president is Donald Trump,” Hughes continued. “What’s most ironic is that while they are spending all this time trying to lie about what policies President Trump has or will advocate for as president, we still have a Harris website that has a half-dozen or more donate buttons but no policy tab.”

Heritage Foundation officials have also tried to counter what they view as misinformation, launching a new website “to counter the left’s worst lies about Project 2025,” Heritage Foundation President Kevin D. Roberts told members in an email Friday morning.

Privately, some Heritage members blame the Trump campaign for elevating Project 2025 by responding to Democratic attacks.

By pushing the Project 2025 agenda as Trump’s blueprint for a second term, Democrats have often inaccurately portrayed some of the document’s policy positions as Trump’s own. They also benefited from the former president’s muddled stances on issues such as abortion and from Trump’s comments that fueled the narrative — like his claim that he would be a dictator on “day one” or his frequent calls for retribution and vengeance on his enemies.

“The power here, again, is it confirms things that voters already suspected and had maybe hoped, ‘Well, maybe he’ll just focus on the stock market and business,’ and now it’s like, ‘He’s the same person he always was and surrounded by extreme people,’” said Patrick Toomey, a partner at BSG, a Democratic research and strategy firm.

Buoyed by social influencers and celebrities taking up the cause, the Biden campaign seized on the theme and hammered away.

In February and March, Democrats began more frequently blending their descriptions of Trump’s second-term agenda and the plans outlined in Project 2025 in their daily messaging, arguing at one point that the proposals outlined by both Trump and Project 2025 would create a modern-day “Handmaid’s Tale” in “Trump’s America” by rolling back LGBTQ rights and abortion access.

The Harris-Walz campaign has also held more than 60 volunteer trainings focused on Project 2025 in battleground states, a campaign official said.

As pieces of the document started circulating on social media, it caught the attention of voters like 27-year-old Tayla Cochran of Sterling Heights, Mich., a disappointed former Biden supporter who was at first “super undecided.” What she saw on her social media feeds about the threats Project 2025 could pose to birth control and abortion access reengaged her interest.

“The whole Project 2025 thing — I don’t know how true that is,” Cochran said in an interview this summer. “But it just sounds crazy. … They’re really relentless with trying to strip us of every bit of freedom we have.”

Democrats picked up on those themes and made them a through-line of programming at the Democratic National Convention last month in Chicago. Many of the prime-time speakers mentioned it — Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) joked that it was “Project 1825” and “Project 1925,” an allusion to its perceived regressiveness. Comedian Kenan Thompson and several Democrats, including Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow, lugged oversize copies of a Project 2025 book onstage, with Thompson joking that it was the rare document that could “kill a small animal and democracy at the same time.”

Speaking in broader terms in her keynote speech on the final night of the convention, Harris said Americans “know what a second Trump term would look like. It’s all laid out in Project 2025, written by his closest advisers.”

And last week, Harris’s campaign released a 60-second ad in battleground states focused on Project 2025, featuring dark and grainy footage of Trump as a narrator ominously intones that the document argues for “overhauling the Department of Justice — giving Trump the unchecked power to seek vengeance; eliminating the Department of Education and defunding K-12 schools; requiring the government to monitor women’s pregnancies,” among other things.

‘It really took off’

Matt Canter, a Democratic pollster, said he and fellow Democrats were “stunned” this summer when voters in focus groups began mentioning Project 2025 unprompted.

“Every single focus group I’ve done since June, respondents have brought up Project 2025,” he said. “You have a significant majority of swing voters in these focus groups knowing what it is and having extremely unfavorable opinions of it. It is a very credible manifestation of what voters fear about the new face of the Republican Party and what Trump might do in a second term.”

In a poll by the Economist/YouGov in early August, 28 percent of adults said they had heard a lot about Project 2025, while 43 percent said they had heard “a little” about it. Nearly half — 46 percent — said they had an unfavorable view of the effort, while only 15 percent had a favorable view.

Nonetheless, it took the Biden-Harris campaign and outside Democratic groups several months of pushing this message before it finally took off.

John Oliver’s point-by-point, 29-minute HBO presentation in mid-June of many of the policies outlined in Project 2025 helped amplify the conversation. In his monologue, which has been viewed online at least 9.4 million times, Oliver described Trump during his first term as “a hamster in an attack helicopter” who wanted to “bathe the world in blood and terror” but didn’t “know what buttons to press.” The Project 2025 document, he said, would change that.

Two weeks later, on the last day of June, Taraji P. Henson drove another spike in Project 2025 search traffic with her BET Awards speech. Harris’s team had worked closely with her before the awards show to produce a scripted video call, paid for by the Biden-Harris campaign, featuring the vice president and Henson from her dressing room.

Searches for Project 2025 peaked between July 7 and July 13, according to Google Trends data, the same week Biden criticized Project 2025 during a rally in Detroit — accusing Trump of lying by trying to distance himself from it and highlighting the fact that the project’s authors would seek to criminalize the shipment of abortion medication.

Attention to the document only continued to climb. Project 2025-related posts averaged 2.5 million views total per day in June, 27.7 million views per day in July — a 10-fold increase — and 11.3 million per day in August through Monday, according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a liberal advocacy organization that has helped push warnings about Project 2025.

By then, Canter said Democrats had achieved the near-impossible: They made an attack against Trump stick.

“It’s the first time we’ve actually been successful in holding him accountable for his policy positions,” Canter said.

Project 2025 means different things to different voters, which is part of its power, according to Democratic strategists and campaign aides.

“One of the reasons it’s been so successful is because you can talk about every issue — abortion, housing, climate change, immigration,” said Navin Nayak, president of the Center of American Progress Action Fund. “Every group that has a threat they were worried about has been able to use Project 2025 to animate that threat.”

Last week, for instance, Latino groups launched a bilingual campaign against Project 2025, with more than a half-dozen Latino leaders and advocates convening a Zoom call to warn of the threat the plan poses to their communities.

“The cruel agenda of Project 2025 seeks to separate families, deport dreamers, and it undermines the economic security and opportunities for working-class people,” said Katharine Pichardo-Erskine, executive director of Latino Victory Project.

Democratic strategists and Harris campaign advisers testing these lines of attack said some messages have stood out as especially effective: the curtailing of reproductive rights and access to abortions; the idea that Trump would weaponize the Justice Department; tougher immigration policies that could include raids at playgrounds and churches; and allowing employers to cut overtime pay for hourly workers, among others.

More broadly, the voters who know about Project 2025 generally have negative views of it, perceiving the effort to be scary and shadowy.

“We’ve been telling people what MAGA would do if they got into power, and Project 2025 became the plot and it felt like something nefarious to the American people — that there is this somewhat secret D.C. document that is the game plan for how to take over the federal government for their own use,” Navin said.

The Heritage Foundation says on its new website that the document is “not partisan, nor is it secret” and that it “does not speak for any candidate or campaign.”

A key aspect of Project 2025 that has allowed Democrats to wield it as a cudgel is that it is a document that voters can read themselves. Toomey, who holds a lot of focus groups with undecided voters, described them as “the most skeptical people on earth,” whose first response to any potential political attack is, “Well, if that’s true, I don’t like it, but I’ll have to Google it for myself, I’ll have to do my own research.”

“And now we just get to say, ‘Google it. Do the research. Don’t take our word for it,’” Toomey said.

Parker Butler, director of digital rapid response for the Harris campaign, said the ability of voters to personally delve into the document helped launch it on social media.

“We saw this as a sticky thing really early on, especially on TikTok, and it was happening from independent creators who were just putting out content,” Butler said. “It really took off among the crowd that was very skeptical of the traditional news media, people who were very much the do-your-own-research type of people.”

One of those voters was Renee Richardson, a 28-year-old activity director for seniors from Sterling Heights, Mich., who discovered the document through social media this spring and read with alarm about proposals such as eliminating the Education Department — one of the suggestions Trump does agree with.

“They’re not talking about it, but if he was to take office, that stuff goes into effect. So people really need to read it over and see what they’re going to have to fall in line with,” she said during an interview earlier this summer. “Not many people know about it, and I’ve been trying to spread the word.”

Isaac Arnsdorf, Marianne LeVine and Jeremy Merrill contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Vice President Kamala Harris is traveling to New Hampshire on Wednesday to lay out another plank of her economic agenda, pitching small-business relief in a Democratic-leaning state ahead of her critical debate next week against Donald Trump.

Harris plans to visit a local brewery in North Hampton that benefited from President Joe Biden’s pandemic-era relief bill and other policies, an effort to highlight the Biden administration’s record of small-business growth while also laying out plans to bolster the economy by supporting entrepreneurs in the future.

While New Hampshire, which Democrats have carried in the last five presidential elections, has not been considered among the battleground states up for grabs in November, aides say Harris is visiting the Granite State in part to show that she is not taking any voters for granted and in part to woo the kind of moderate and Republican voters who dislike Trump.

“Our campaign is reaching voters of all political stripes — including Nikki Haley voters who are turned off by Trump’s extremism,” Harris’s campaign said in a statement, which noted that Haley, the former U.N. ambassador, garnered 43 percent of the state’s vote in her bid against Trump.

Trump’s campaign has suggested that Harris is traveling to New Hampshire because she is struggling there. Many Democratic leaders in the state were upset when Biden opted to bypass its first-in-the-nation primary to elevate South Carolina earlier this year.

Harris “sees there are problems for her campaign in New Hampshire because of the fact that they disrespected it in their primary and never showed up,” Trump wrote Tuesday on his social media platform Truth Social. “Additionally, the cost of living in New Hampshire is through the roof, their energy bills are some of highest in the country, and their housing market is the most unaffordable in history.”

The economy is expected to be a major focus during Tuesday’s debate against the two candidates, and Harris has focused much of her policy rollout on what she has branded the “Opportunity Economy.”

During her visit to Throwback Brewery in North Hampton, Harris is expected to announce plans for a $50,000 tax benefit for small businesses, expanding the current $5,000 deduction for start-up firms by tenfold, according to a campaign official. Campaign aides say the proposal — part of a suite of new initiatives to boost entrepreneurship – would help draw a contrast with Trump, who has proposed tax cuts for corporations.

Trump and his campaign have sought to draw a contrast of their own, leaning into his polling advantage on economic matters. The former president has tried to brand Harris as excessively liberal, arguing that her policies have created inflation and stunted economic growth.

Harris’s latest proposal is part of an ongoing effort to combat Trump on that issue and woo some of the voters who dislike the former president but are concerned that Harris would be unfriendly to business.

In addition to the $50,000 tax deduction, Harris is proposing to create a new standard deduction for small firms to expedite their tax filings, lower barriers for occupational licenses and approve incentives for state and local governments to make it easier to form start-ups, among other changes, the campaign official said. The plans are part of a bid to spur some 25 million new business applications over four years, up from the record 19 million since Biden took office.

Harris, who has supported Biden’s proposals to increase taxes on large corporations and the wealthy to pay for other Democratic priorities like child care, has not said how much her latest efforts would cost or how the government would pay for them.

Jeff Stein contributed to this report.

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Comcast’s NBCUniversal has a longstanding bet on the Olympics, but this summer the company threw all of its resources at the Games in a bid to grab more viewership — especially for its growing streaming platform, Peacock.

It appears to have paid off so far — more than 30 million people tuned in to NBC’s TV and streaming platforms to watch the games, and a record $1.2 billion in advertising revenue was generated.

NBC executives, having touted the Olympics as a growth driver and differentiator in the increasingly crowded landscape of streaming and live sports, are now looking to extend the benefit beyond the Games and into future live sports.

“We completely changed the game plan internally. We ripped up the playbook two years ago,” said Jenny Storms, chief marketing officer of entertainment and sports at NBCUniversal. “It was very scary at the time to take the institutional knowledge that we had for so long and rip it up and start over. We really started new and fresh in totality, from production to company wide counterparts.”

The Olympics have long been key to NBCUniversal. Paris marked the 18th Olympic Games broadcast by NBC in the U.S. The company renewed the rights in 2014, agreeing to pay $7.65 billion for the Games between 2022 and 2032, amounting to more than $1.2 billion for each.

Just before Paris, efforts had fallen flat. The 2021 Tokyo Olympics and 2022 Beijing Olympics drew the lowest-ever audiences for Summer and Winter Games, respectively.

Storms noted there were factors at play in those last two Olympic Games that were largely out of NBCUniversal’s control.

Both of the Games were shrouded by the early stage of the pandemic. Tokyo was postponed by a year, and fans and families weren’t present at either games. The time zone difference from Asia worked against the U.S. broadcast, too.

NBC microphones sit on the field on July 30 in Marseille, France.Brad Smith / ISI / Getty Images file

But notably the strategy for Peacock during those Games appeared to be the biggest misstep. In Tokyo, very few events were available to stream live on Peacock. In Beijing, the live content was there, but fans had trouble finding what they wanted to watch.

“We made a claim that Peacock would be the home of the Olympics, and we didn’t exactly deliver,” said Mark Lazarus, chairman of NBCUniversal Media Group. “We were nervous about how much content to put on there, how to program it and how to cross-deliver it [with traditional TV]. And we were rightly told by the fanbase that we didn’t deliver what we said we would.”

Executives across the company have credited Paris as a part of the success of this year’s Olympics, between the eye-catching scenery — with the Opening Ceremony on the Seine River and beach volleyball played in front of the Eiffel Tower, to name a couple — and favorable time zone working in NBC’s favor.

The company also began marketing the Olympics much earlier this time around, employing various parts of NBCUniversal to get the word out, from news programs and talk shows, to various forms of advertising, Storms said.

Both Storms and Lazarus also noted the success of airing the Olympic trials in the weeks before the games.

“We never really pushed hard with the trials before,” Storms said. “But it was the most streamed trials ever, and it was important to warm America up.”

And then there was the star factor of NBCUniversal’s internal roster.

The company used its own talent more strategically in 2024, executives said. Besides airing promos for content, NBC A-listers were integrated into the events themselves, co-hosting and reporting from the sidelines. Fan favorite Snoop Dogg, a special correspondent for NBC Olympics, generated social media buzz and drew more eyes to the live events. And, his stand-out presence in Paris helped promote his upcoming role with NBC’s “The Voice” this fall.

Snoop Dogg at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on Aug. 9.Odd Andersen / Getty Images file

“We had a great experience with Snoop, we are definitely in the Snoop business with ‘The Voice,’ and hope to be in the Snoop business in the future,” said Lazarus, adding NBCUniversal doesn’t have a commitment yet with Snoop Dogg for future Olympics.

Other NBC talent attended the Games to promote their projects, too. Mariska Hargitay, who’s played the character Olivia Benson on “Law & Order: SVU” since 1999, was in Paris promoting the show’s 26th season. A variety of “Saturday Night Live” cast members were present, including Colin Jost, who covered surfing in Tahiti and had to make an early exit due to health issues.

Shows from both NBC and Peacock were also promoted at the Games, and Universal’s upcoming film, “Wicked,” was highlighted often, with stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo appearing on the Opening Ceremony red carpet.

The “Wicked” actors also voiced a promotional piece for U.S. gymnastics powerhouse Simone Biles, and an exclusive clip of the film was aired during the “Today” show from Paris. NBC said among moviegoers, ”‘Wicked’ gained ground across measures during the Olympics, doubling our level of top of mind awareness, and increasing total awareness,” according to polling.

Arguably no NBC property shined brighter during the Olympics than streaming platform, Peacock.

Due in large part to Peacock, 23.5 billion minutes of the Olympics were streamed, up 40% from all prior Summer and Winter Olympics combined, according to a release.

“Peacock delivered in every way that we hadn’t before,” said Lazarus.

Besides having all live coverage, exclusive shows like “Gold Zone,” hosted by Scott Hanson of “NFL Red Zone,” gave fans more options for all-day viewing. There were also features built solely for the Olympics, such as an artificial intelligence function featuring daily recaps in the voice of Al Michaels, a longtime voice of marquee NFL games.

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande attend the red carpet at the Olympic Games Paris 2024 on July 26.Matthew Stockman / Getty Images file

An estimated 2.8 million consumers signed up for Peacock during the first week of the Summer Games, averaging nearly 400,000 additions daily, according to data provider Antenna. This nearly matched the sign ups driven by Peacock’s exclusive NFL Wild Card game in January, according to Antenna. The game is considered the most streamed live event in history with 27.6 million viewers, according to Nielsen.

While Comcast recently reported Peacock had 33 million paid customers as of June 30 — 500,000 less than the prior period, and widely attributed to the loss of customers exiting after the Wild Card game —analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson said it’s worth noting the customers that remained since the Wild Card game.

“I suspect they’ll have the same experience with the Olympics,” Moffett said. “Sure, some of those customers will leave but they will probably end up keeping a lot more than not.”

Still, traditional TV made up the bulk of viewership during the Paris Games — nearly 90% of viewers watched on broadcast and cable channels, Lazarus said. Aided by the more favorable time zone, NBC aired live events on TV and Peacock during the day and rebranded the evening broadcast as “Primetime in Paris,” replaying big events with sidecar programming and interviews.

The strategy used in Paris will serve as the roadmap for future Olympics — the Milan Winter Olympics in 2026 and Los Angeles Summer Games in 2028 — as well as other live sports aired on NBC’s TV networks and Peacock, executives said.

Shortly after the 2024 Olympics comes the new seasons of English Premier League soccer, American college football and National Football League. NBC will also be the rights holder of National Basketball Association games beginning in the 2025-2026 season.

“I think Peacock is getting much more sophisticated, as we’ve seen with the Olympics, in how they can do sports coverage,” said Shirin Malkani, co-chair of the sports industry group at Perkins Coie.

Disclosure: CNBC parent NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.

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German automotive giant Volkswagen is bracing for a showdown with trade unions shortly after it said it cannot rule out shutting factories in its home country for the first time in its nearly 90-year history.

Volkswagen’s management is expected to lay out its plans before about 18,000 workers at a town hall meeting in Wolfsburg on Wednesday morning, amid speculation that the carmaker could push to close sites in Osnabrueck in Lower Saxony and Dresden in Saxony.

A spokesperson for Volkswagen was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Tuesday.

In a move that underlines the challenges facing Europe’s top legacy carmakers, Volkswagen warned on Monday that it would no longer be able to rule out plant closures in Germany.

The Wolfsburg-headquartered company also said it felt compelled to bring an end to its employment protection agreement — a job security program that has been in place since 1994 — in order to secure “urgently needed structural adjustments for greater competitiveness in the short term.”

Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume said in a written statement on Monday that the carmaker would need to “act decisively” in order to future-proof the company.

“The European automotive industry is in a very demanding and serious situation,” Blume said.

“The economic environment became even tougher, and new competitors are entering the European market. In addition, Germany in particular as a manufacturing location is falling further behind in terms of competitiveness,” he added.

Volkswagen said that all necessary measures would be discussed with the General Works Council — a group of elected staff members that represent the interests of a company’s workforce — and with top German industrial union IG Metall. Both groups, which hold significant influence at the company, have been sharply critical of the proposals.

Daniela Cavallo of Volkswagen’s General Works Council said that the faction would “fight bitterly” against the potential plant closure measures, while a spokesperson for IG Metall described the plan as one that “shakes the foundations of Volkswagen and poses a massive threat to jobs and locations.”

Shares of Volkswagen dipped 0.8% at around 2:15 p.m. London time on Tuesday, paring gains from the previous session. Volkswagen’s stock price has fallen by more than 33% over the past five years.

The downturn comes amid a difficult economic environment for the carmaker and an influx of new rivals in Europe, as Volkswagen attempts to survive the transition to electric cars.

“The situation is extremely tense and cannot be resolved through simple cost-cutting measures,” VW brand CEO Thomas Schäfer said on Monday.

“This is why we want to initiate discussions with employee representatives as soon as possible to explore the possibilities for sustainably restructuring the brand,” he added.

Volkswagen’s plans to consider unprecedented plant closures in Germany comes at a politically fraught time for Europe’s largest economy. Led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the ruling three-way coalition in Berlin was dealt a heavy blow in regional votes over the weekend.

“The German automotive industry stands for globally successful products and innovations. It is a central pillar for growth and prosperity in Germany,” a German government spokesperson told CNBC by email, without commenting specifically on Volkswagen’s planned measures.

“At the same time, it is currently in a challenging phase of transformation towards electromobility. This also requires the adaptation of traditional structures and measures for greater competitiveness,” the spokesperson added, according to a Google translation.

“A close social partnership is a hallmark of the German automotive industry. The Federal Government therefore appeals to the social partners involved to continue to fulfil this responsibility in the future.”

Thomas Besson, head of automotive research at Kepler Cheuvreux, said the problems at Volkswagen reflect an “industry-wide story.”

“We are seeing a major fragmentation story of the global automotive landscape,” Besson told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday.

“The situation … is also specific to Volkswagen, in the sense that they have put in place a number of guarantees for workers,” he added.

— CNBC’s Annette Weisbach contributed to this report.

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Football is back, and it’s expected to bring with it record-breaking betting.

U.S. adults will wager $35 billion this NFL season, according to projections from the American Gaming Association.

That would mark more than 30% growth over the $26.7 billion Americans wagered over the course of last year’s season of the National Football League, according to the AGA, and would set a fresh record. Since last NFL season, Maine, North Carolina and Vermont have allowed sports betting operators to launch in their states. And court decisions have permitted Hard Rock International to relaunch sports betting in Florida.

Today, sports betting is live and legal in 38 states and Washington, D.C.

And yet stocks in the gambling companies aren’t following the same growth trajectory. Shares of DraftKings, Penn, Caesars, MGM Resorts and Entain, which jointly own BetMGM, are all negative year to date. Flutter, owner of FanDuel, is up 19%, after listing on the New York Stock Exchange this year. It posted second-quarter earnings that trounced expectations for revenue and profit, giving shares a lift.

Churchill Downs is positive on the year and Rush Street Interactive has posted notable gains of 109% year to date.

Each of the licensed sportsbooks is working on strategies to claim a bigger share of the action, trying to attract new customers and convince established players to show more brand loyalty.

NFL kickoff is an opportunity to launch new and improved technology or innovative wagers that entice players. Sportsbooks tailor their promotions to reach new customers.

“The NFL season is our biggest acquisition period of the year,” said Christian Genetski, president of FanDuel, the nation’s leading sportsbook.

FanDuel is the only one to partner with YouTube to roll out a “Sunday Ticket” offer. Players who wager $5 get a three-week trial to watch out-of-market NFL games with “Sunday Ticket.” FanDuel hopes allowing fans to watch their favorite teams will lead to more wagering.

FanDuel also said it has tweaked its app design and added more bets to its Same Game Parlay. It’s upgraded features so fans can wager at “the speed of sports,” the company said.

With more than 95% of sports wagers now happening online, speed matters. That’s especially true when it comes to micro-betting: wagers made on specific plays as the game unfolds.

Fanatics, Michael Rubin’s e-commerce empire that includes sports merchandise and memorabilia, launched its sportsbook last year in four markets. Since then, Fanatics Sportsbook acquired PointsBet’s U.S. operations and technology, which is now fully integrated. And its sportsbook is now live in 22 states.

It’s a pretty impressive ramp for a newcomer to the industry.

Fanatics Sportsbook relies on the existing database of 100 million sports fans for customer acquisition throughout the year and rewards them with products from the merchandise and collectibles businesses.

And just before the start of the 2024 football season, Fanatics hosted a blockbuster fan activation called Fanatics Fest NYC where customers could meet athletes and celebrities and celebrate their passion for sports.

Fanatics Sportsbook CEO Matt King told CNBC the customer response was effusive.

“We’ve seen incredible positive sentiment and resonance with our proposition of being the most rewarding sportsbook, both in terms of the economic value of what we give back as well as, frankly, the unique things we can do,” King said.

King said unique player rewards build into the crescendo of the sports calendar, what he described as the “sports equinox” — that time during the fall when nearly every sport is being played on overlapping schedules.

DraftKings said the NFL is its most popular league by both handle and number of bets it accepts.

The sportsbook, which recently pulled back on a plan to tax customers in high-tax states, is offering a “No Touchdown” prop bet this season, meaning bettors will now be able to wager on whether a top player does not score a touchdown.

With its shares off 28% this year and its digital business in the red, there is a spotlight and scrutiny on Penn Entertainment. This is its first full NFL season to show off ESPN Bet, its $2 billion investment on a rebranded sportsbook in partnership with the Disney-owned sports juggernaut. It first launched in November last year, smack in the middle of NFL season.

Since then, the platform has grown its customer database to 31 million members, an 80% gain. Penn’s leaders are optimistic about its media integration with ESPN.

“People are active in our app, and our goal over the next several quarters is to drive higher loyalty and retention and better monetize the significant engagement activity through improved product and expanded offerings,” Penn CEO Jay Snowden said on an Aug. 8 earnings call.

BetMGM just launched the first single wallet for mobile play in Nevada, where customers can transport their accounts from Las Vegas back to their home states. Mobile wallets eliminate the friction of multiple transactions.

“Our players can now immerse themselves in the excitement of MGM Resorts’ Las Vegas destinations or statewide while seamlessly continuing to place wagers in other BetMGM markets,” BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt said in a statement.

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