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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday proposed easing a key capital rule that banks say has limited their ability to operate, drawing dissent from at least two officials who say the move could undermine important safeguards.

Known as the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, the measure regulates the quantity and quality of capital banks should be keeping on their balance sheets. The rule emanated from a post-financial crisis effort to ensure the stability of the nation’s largest banks.

However, in recent years as bank reserves have built and concerns have grown over Treasury market liquidity, Wall Street executives and Fed officials have pushed to roll back the requirements. The regulations targeted treat all capital the same.

“This stark increase in the amount of relatively safe and low-risk assets on bank balance sheets over the past decade or so has resulted in the leverage ratio becoming more binding,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement. “Based on this experience, it is prudent for us to reconsider our original approach.”

The Fed board put the proposal open for a 60-day public comment window.

In its draft form, the measure would call for reducing the top-tier capital big banks must hold by 1.4%, or some $13 billion, for holding companies. Subsidiaries would see a larger drop, of $210 billion, which would still be held by the parent bank. The standard applies the same rules to so-called globally systemic important banks as well as their subsidiaries.

The rule would lower capital requirements to range of 3.5% to 4.5% from the current 5%, with subsidiaries put in the same range from a previous level of 6%.

Current Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller released statements supporting the changes.

“The proposal will help to build resilience in U.S. Treasury markets, reducing the likelihood of market dysfunction and the need for the Federal Reserve to intervene in a future stress event,” Bowman stated. “We should be proactive in addressing the unintended consequences of bank regulation, including the bindingness of the eSLR, while ensuring the framework continues to promote safety, soundness, and financial stability.”

On the whole, the plan seeks to loosen up banks to take on more lower-risk inventory such as Treasurys, which are now treated essentially the same as high-yield bonds for capital purposes. Fed regulators essentially are looking for the capital requirements to serve as a safety net rather than a bind on activity.

However, Governors Adriana Kugler and Michael Barr, the former vice chair of supervision, said they would oppose the move.

“Even if some further Treasury market intermediation were to occur in normal times, this proposal is unlikely to help in times of stress,” Barr said in a separate statement. “In short, firms will likely use the proposal to distribute capital to shareholders and engage in the highest return activities available to them, rather than to meaningfully increase Treasury intermediation.”

The leverage ratio has come under criticism for essentially penalizing banks for holding Treasurys. Official documents released Wednesday say the new regulations align with so-called Basel standards, which set standards for banks globally.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Think trading against the trend is risky? You may want to reconsider. When a stock or ETF is trending lower, the smart money watches for signs of a reversal; those early signals can get you into a trend before everyone else and lead to favorable risk-to-reward ratios.

In this video, options strategist Tony Zhang breaks down how to spot high-probability counter-trend setups using technical signals and practical examples. You’ll learn how to identify early reversal signals, why counter-trend setups can be lower-risk than you’d think, and how to apply these strategies through examples and live reviews.

Whether you’re new to options trading or leveling up your game, this is your opportunity to explore a low-risk, high-performing strategy.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold 100,000 shares of the chipmaker’s stock on Friday and Monday, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The sales are worth nearly $15 million at Tuesday’s opening price.

The transactions are the first sale in Huang’s plan to sell as many as 600,000 shares of Nvidia through the end of 2025. It’s a plan that was announced in March, and it’d be worth $873 million at Tuesday’s opening price.

The Nvidia founder still owns more than 800 million Nvidia shares, according to Monday’s SEC filing. Huang has a net worth of about $126 billion, ranking him 12th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The 62-year-old chief executive sold about $700 million in Nvidia shares last year under a prearranged plan, too.

Nvidia stock is up more than 800% since December 2022 after OpenAI’s ChatGPT was first released to the public. That launch drew attention to Nvidia’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, which were needed to develop and power the artificial intelligence service.

The company’s chips remain in high demand with the majority of the AI chip market, and Nvidia has introduced two subsequent generations of its AI GPU technology.

Nvidia continues to grow. Its stock is up 9% this year, even as the company faces export control issues that could limit foreign markets for its AI chips.

In May, the company reported first-quarter earnings that showed the chipmaker’s revenue growing 69% on an annual basis to $44 billion during the quarter.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Chris Schwegmann is getting creative with how artificial intelligence is being used in law.

At Dallas-based boutique law firm Lynn Pinker Hurst & Schwegmann, he sometimes asks AI to channel Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts or Sherlock Holmes.

Schwegmann said after uploading opposing counsel’s briefs, he’ll ask legal technology platform Harvey to assume the role of a legal mind like Roberts to see how the chief justice would think about a particular problem.

Other times, he will turn to a fictional character like Holmes, unlocking a different frame of mind.

“Harvey, ChatGPT … they know who those folks are, and can approach the problem from that mindset,” he said. “Once we as lawyers get outside those lanes, when we are thinking more creatively involving other branches of science, literature, history, mythology, that sometimes generates some of the most interesting ideas that can then be put, using proper legal judgement, in a framework that works to solve a legal problem.”

It’s just one example of how smaller businesses are putting AI to work to punch above their weight, and new data shows there’s an opportunity for much more implementation in the future.

Only 24% of owners in the recent Small Business and Technology Survey from the National Federation of Independent Business said they are using AI, including ChatGPT, Canva and Copilot, in some capacity.

Notably, 98% of those using it said AI has so far not impacted the number of employees at their firms.

At his trial litigation firm of 50 attorneys, Schwegmann said AI is resolving work in days that would sometimes take weeks, and said the technology isn’t replacing workers at the firm.

It has freed up associate lawyers from doing “grunt work,” he said, and also means more senior-level partners have the time to mentor younger attorneys because everyone has more time.

The NFIB survey found AI use varied based on the size of the small business. For firms with employees in the single digits, uptake was at 21%. At firms with fifty or more workers, AI implementation was at nearly half of all respondents.

“The data show clearly that uptake for the smallest businesses lags substantially behind their larger competitors. … With a little attention from all the relevant stakeholders, a more equal playing field is possible,” the NFIB report said.

For future AI use, 63% of all small employers surveyed said the utilization of the technology in their industry in the next five years will be important to some degree; 12% said it will be extremely important and 15% said it will not be important at all.

Some of the most common uses in the survey were for communications, marketing and advertising, predictive analysis and customer service.

“We still have the need for the independent legal judgment of our associate lawyers and our partners — it hasn’t replaced them, it just augments their thinking,” Schwegmann said. “It makes them more creative and frees their time to do what lawyers do best, which is strategic thought and creative problem solving.”

The NFIB data echoes a recent survey from Reimagine Main Street, a project of Public Private Strategies Institute in partnership with PayPal.

Reimagine surveyed nearly 1,000 small businesses with annual revenue between $25,000 and $50,000 and also found that a quarter had already started integrating AI into daily workflows.

Schwegmann said at his firm, AI is helping to even the playing field.

“One of the things Harvey lets us do is review, understand and incorporate and respond much faster than we would prior to the use of these kinds of AI tools,” he said. “No longer does a party have an advantage because they can paper you to death.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

As the cycle of uncertainty continues to yield confusion than clarity, investors are again caught having to decide between taking an offensive and defensive posture in the market. The tough part in today’s market environment is how fast situations can shift. With headlines driving the action, sentiment can flip on a dime. So how do you position yourself when breaking news drives the market?

No one can predict how the stock market will play out in the coming months. But keeping an eye on the ratio of “offense” to “defense” stocks can offer some clues. This may not give you a decisive trade scenario, but it can provide a clearer context that can help you form a more bullish or bearish decisive bias.

For this article, let’s refer to the StockCharts Market Summary tool and zoom in on the Technology vs. Utilities ratio (XLK:XLU), which you can find in the Key Ratios – Offense vs Defense panel.

Why XLK:XLU Ratio Matters

This ratio compares the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) with the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), both being sector proxies (see the one-year ratio chart below).

FIGURE 1. TECH VS UTILITIES RATIO: From a one-year perspective, utilities have outperformed tech.

The key question is whether capital will continue chasing innovation and growth or seek shelter in the relative stability of power grids and water systems. The answer, when it eventually comes, could signal the economy’s next move.

On the one-year chart, the XLK:XLU ratio shows an attempted recovery from a general decline. Note how the ratio percentage is negative. That’s because, over the past year, utilities have generally performed stronger than tech. But we’re seeing tech’s performance strengthening, and a sustained move toward (and eventually into) positive territory would suggest a stronger shift in bullish sentiment.

Notably, XLK and XLU are trading at their respective highs, with XLK already breaking above it. The question remains which sector may be topping or outpacing the other in a more sustained manner.

XLK Breaks Higher: A Bullish Signal?

Here’s a daily chart of XLK.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. A proxy for the tech sector, XLK has broken above resistance. The key question now is whether it can hold above this level and follow through, or if it’s topping out amid the current geopolitical uncertainties.

XLK’s surge from its April bottom, including the gap above $243, signals bullish momentum. It’s also trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) while its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score has climbed above 76, signaling technical strength. Volume-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows renewed strength in buying pressure, though CMF levels are down considerably since their highest levels in May.

XLU’s Rally: Strong, But Losing Steam

Compare XLK’s chart to XLU’s daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF XLU. The Utilities sector is challenging its highs, but is XLU losing steam, and will XLK eventually outpace it?

XLU is attempting to challenge its highs near the $82.50 range, though it hasn’t penetrated the top. Its SCTR score is also bullish at 77, though it’s not as convincing as that of XLK. XLU’s CMF reading also shows weakened buying pressure, as its levels are barely hovering above the zero line.

What These Charts Are Saying

Taken together, these charts aren’t about calling the next big trade. They’re about reading near-term sentiment and getting a feel for where investors think the economy is headed amid this tense geopolitical backdrop.

When both offense and defense are rising, it suggests uncertainty, with capital flowing in both directions. But when one sector pulls ahead, it may signal where institutional money is placing its bets. Whether you’re a short-term trader or long-term investor, tracking this ratio can help anchor your outlook, especially as global events continue to fuel market volatility.

Keep XLK and XLU on your ChartLists and continue to monitor this ratio, along with other comparative tools on the Market Summary page. Also, pay close attention to news developments.

At the Close

The XLK:XLU ratio might not give you the most comprehensive or surefire signal about investor sentiment, but it’s an important piece of the puzzle. It can help you see the bigger picture, which is a crucial step before placing any trades.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Dave as he shares how he uses the power of Fibonacci retracements to anticipate potential turning points. He takes viewers through the process of determining what price levels to use to set up a Fibonacci framework, and, from there, explains what Fibonacci retracements are telling him about the charts of NCLH, RTX, and the S&P 500

This video originally premiered on June 24, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

The stock market has been on quite the rollercoaster of late, thanks to news headlines. But investors seem to have shrugged off the past weekend’s geopolitical tensions, at least for now. 

On Tuesday, we saw a surge of enthusiasm. Investors were diving back into stocks and selling off their oil and precious metals holdings. Last week, oil prices spiked amid Middle East tensions, but have now fallen to pre-conflict levels. After what felt like a few weeks of the market moving sideways, maybe the stock market got the catalyst it needed to push the major indexes out of their trading range. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was enough to get things going.

Stocks Get a Boost

Tuesday’s positive tone helped move the stock market higher, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) closing up 1.1%, finally breaking above the top of its trading range. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) followed suit, with both indexes within spitting distance of their all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX), which closed 1.53% higher, hit a new all-time high. And let’s not forget the Dow Industrials ($INDU), which is also making a strong attempt to push through key resistance levels, even though it’s a little bit further from its all-time high.

Given the Nasdaq 100’s strong performance on Tuesday, it’s worth taking a closer look at the daily chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. The ETF hit a new high on June 24 with a potential Golden Cross. If the relative strength index and percentage price oscillator confirm upside momentum, QQQ could rise higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Besides hitting a new high, note that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA. This is referred to as a Golden Cross and can be an early sign of bullishness. While it’s not a guaranteed “green light” at such an early stage, it’s worth watching to see if the 50-day SMA continues to stay above the 200-day SMA.

The relative strength index (RSI) is getting closer to overbought territory. If it crosses above 70, it would be another sign of strong bullish momentum. Similarly, the percentage price oscillator (PPO) needs to move into positive territory, meaning the shorter moving average should cross above the longer one. They’re close, but remember these are lagging indicators, meaning they’ll confirm trends that are already underway. Thus, if the 50-day SMA remains above the 20-day SMA, RSI crosses above 70, and PPO confirms upside momentum, it would confirm further upside move in QQQ.

Another interesting point to note: The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed at 17.48, which suggests investors are relatively complacent. The VIX was relatively subdued during the Middle East conflict, hitting a high of around 22. With less fear, the charts of the major indexes look like they’re going to hit fresh highs. On Tuesday, Technology, Financials, and Communication Services were the top-performing sectors.

Tech Regains Lead

The Technology sector was powered by semiconductors, which have been driving the market lately. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has broken above the range it’s been trading within for the last couple of weeks and is now close to its 52-week high (see daily chart of SMH below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Semiconductors have been driving the stock market lately and broke out above the range from the last couple of weeks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking at individual stocks, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) was the most actively traded S&P 500 stock. A handful of big names are hitting new all-time highs, too; this includes Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), International Business Machines (IBM), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX), just to name a few. For the complete list, check out the “New Highs” panel in your StockCharts Dashboard; you’ll likely notice a significant percentage of tech stocks on the list.

The positive price action on Tuesday suggests investors are rotating into growth stocks, which signals further upside moves in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stocks. Here’s a more encouraging sign: even the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($SPXEW) is breaking out and moving towards its highs. This indicates that the market’s strength isn’t limited to a few big, heavily-weighted growth stocks; participation is much broader.

Travel Stocks Get a Lift

Beyond tech stocks, consumer discretionary stocks also traded higher. The top three performers in the Consumer Discretionary sector were Carnival Corp. (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings (NCLH), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR). The MarketCarpet for the Consumer Discretionary sector below shows travel stocks were strong performers on Tuesday.

FIGURE 3. MARKETCARPET FOR THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR. The table on the right shows CCL, NCLH, and CZR were the top performers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

CCL’s stock price gapped up after the company reported strong earnings and guidance. An increase in cruise line bookings indicates consumer sentiment is strong. As a result, cruise lines and travel stocks traded higher. This goes against June’s Consumer Confidence report, which showed weakening confidence. It didn’t seem to impact the market, but it may come back to bite us depending on what news headlines we are likely to receive on Wednesday.

Closing Position

Tuesday’s price action suggests that equities are back on their bullish track after a period of consolidation. Will the upside move hold, or will a negative news headline bring the bears back into the market?

This is where your StockCharts tools come in handy! Keep a close eye on the performance of the major indexes and other helpful indicators such as the RSI and PPO. By using these tools, you can stay on top of the stock market and make investment decisions with greater confidence.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Sports merchandising giant Fanatics is aiming to build a training camp for athletes to prepare them for life off the field.

More than two dozen NBA, NFL and NHL players participated in the company’s Athlete Immersion Program this past weekend as part of Fanatics Fest in New York City. The program included three days of workshops on business, entrepreneurship, tech and more.

“This definitely opened my eyes,” said Cole Anthony, a guard for the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies. “I’m already trying to do things on the business side with my partners, my family. It just motivates me more.”

The “coaches” for the business boot camp included Fanatics founder Michael Rubin, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, Apollo Global cofounder and Philadelphia 76ers managing partner Josh Harris, Raising Cane’s founder Todd Graves, ESPN Chairman Jimmy Pitaro and Boardroom cofounder and CEO Rich Kleiman.

Aaron Donald, who retired from the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams in 2024 after winning the Super Bowl, has already begun a new career in business, including an ownership stake in sports nutrition company Ready. But Donald, likely a future Hall of Famer, said he was blown away by the all-star team of business leaders.

“I think it’s one of hell of an opportunity,” said Donald. “I’m in a room with guys running companies worth billions of dollars. How many opportunities are you going to get to do that? You have to take advantage of all of those opportunities and knowledge.”

Fanatics launched the Athlete Immersion Program in 2023 and this year is partnering with Boardroom, a media and advisory company cofounded by Kleiman and NBA superstar Kevin Durant.

“I think it’s great to be able to give them a bit of a blueprint,” said Kleiman. “Being able to put them in the room with people that have the answers, that have done it, that lead industries. I think you get so much power and opportunity just from the information you get from watching, from learning and from being in these rooms and understanding how to move.”

Kleiman pointed to former NBA player Junior Bridgeman, who made less than $3 million during his 12-year career in the league, but built a net worth of more than $1 billion after retirement primarily through investments in Wendy’s, Pizza Hut and Chili’s franchises and then later through Coca-Cola distribution.

“What he did, he’s exceptional,” said Kleiman of Bridgeman, who died in March. “He wasn’t just a name. He actually built an operational team, built them up, oversaw them, and he was a tycoon of a business mind.”

Fanatics Chief People Officer Toretha McGuire said the program is focused on helping athletes use their playing days, what they describe as their “1.0 career” to fuel their “2.0 career.”

It’s an experience similar to a business school with lectures, case studies and projects, in which each athlete creates their own limited-edition clothing line with vintage sports apparel company Mitchell & Ness, a subsidiary of Fanatics.

“They go through a base business case, we teach them business fundamentals, we take them through the Fanatics business case where we bring them to 2021 where Michael [Rubin] did a final capital raise and we basically say, ‘What would you have done?’” McGuire said.

Most professional athletes retire from playing when they’re still young, she added.

“The opportunities they have in their 1.0 careers in terms of access and expanding their networks are going to be very critical,” she said.

Graves, who founded the popular fried chicken chain Raising Cane’s, spoke on a panel about the realities and challenges of entrepreneurship

“If you absolutely want to start a business, imagine how hard it is, multiply that by infinity to be able to make it work,” he said. “You have to be passionate, you have to be in the details 100%. And you have to know what you don’t know, right? So that is bringing in great people to try and grow it.”

The Athlete Immersion Program is meant to be a continuous learning opportunity through which players receive support, education and networking opportunities from Fanatics and Boardroom before and after they begin their business journey.

The next session will be held in December for WNBA, NWSL and MLB athletes in the offseason.

For Anthony, who was recently traded to the Grizzlies from the Orlando Magic, it’s also shown him the real parallels between competing in sports and competing in business.

“The common thing with everyone who has spoken to us and I’ve been able to talk to one-on-one is that every person I met here has been a grinder,” he said. “They make whatever it is they are passionate about, or what they are working on their priority. I think that’s just dope to hear from other people I can relate to in that sense.”

A decade ago, reports suggested 16% of NFL players ultimately filed for bankruptcy — a sign of the type of financial strain many professional athletes face and a cautionary tale of life after the game.

But today, many of the people participating in the Fanatics curriculum believe opportunities like the Athlete Immersion Program can change the narrative — and their financial future.

For Donald, who will be remembered as one of the greatest defenders in NFL history, the focus now is finding the greatest opportunities for the next chapter of his life.

“It would be silly for me to stop the hard work, discipline, the structure that got me to a certain point,” he said. “I’m trying to build generational wealth for my kids.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Some Sector Reshuffling, But No New Entries/Exits

Despite a backdrop of significant geopolitical events over the weekend, the market’s reaction appears muted — at least, in European trading. As we assess the RRG best five sectors model based on last Friday’s close, we’re seeing some interesting shifts within the top performers, even as the composition of the top five remains unchanged.

The jump in Technology’s ranking is particularly noteworthy, especially when compared to Consumer Discretionary’s drop to the bottom of the list (position #11). These two sectors often move in tandem, so this divergence is worth keeping an eye on.

  1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
  2. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (2) Utilities – (XLU)*
  5. (4) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  6. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  7. (6) Financials – (XLF)*
  8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
  9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
  11. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is starting to curl back up toward the leading quadrant.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture:

  • Industrials: In the lagging quadrant with stable relative momentum, this sector needs an improvement in relative strength soon to remain in the top position.
  • Technology: Almost static at a high RS-Ratio reading, indicating a stable relative uptrend.
  • Communication Services: Back in the leading quadrant and still moving higher.
  • Utilities and Consumer Staples: Low readings but curling back up, with Utilities already re-entering the improving quadrant.

This daily view suggests that Utilities and Consumer Staples might maintain their positions in the top five, while raising some concerns about Industrials’ short-term performance.

Industrials: Resistance Roadblock

The industrial sector is grappling with overhead resistance between 142.5 and 145. This struggle is impacting the raw relative strength line, which has rolled over, causing the RS-Momentum line to curl as well.

The RS-Ratio remains elevated and moving higher, but the resistance level is a key area to watch.

Technology: Strong Despite Struggles

XLK is facing overhead resistance in the 240 area for the third consecutive week. From a relative perspective, however, the sector looks robust. The raw RS line broke from its falling channel and is clearly moving higher, dragging both RRG lines upward and pushing XLK into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG.

Communication Services: Balancing Act

XLC is battling resistance around 105, with its raw RS line remaining inside its channel but slowly curling up against rising support. To maintain its position, we’ll need to see either higher prices for XLC or lower prices for SPY in the coming weeks.

Utilities & Consumer Staples: Range-Bound Challenges

Both of these sectors are stuck within their respective trading ranges, causing their RRG lines to roll over. With SPY moving higher, their relative strength is under pressure, positioning both tails in the weakening quadrant on negative RRG headings.

Portfolio Performance Update

From a portfolio perspective, we’re seeing a slight improvement, but the underperformance still persists. We’re continuing to track movements and position the portfolio according to the mechanical model that is the foundation of this best five sectors series.

Looking Ahead

With no changes to the top five sector positions, we’ll be closely monitoring how this selection holds up in the coming week. The divergence between Technology and Consumer Discretionary is particularly intriguing, and the struggles with overhead resistance across several sectors could prove pivotal.

Imho, the limited market reaction to the weekend’s geopolitical events (so far) suggests a certain resilience, but we’ll need to stay alert for any delayed impacts or shifts in sentiment.

#StayAlert and have a great week ahead. –Julius


This week, we’re keeping an eye on three major stocks that are reporting earnings. Two of them have been beaten down and are looking to turn things around, while the third has had a tremendous run and is looking to keep its extraordinary momentum going. Let’s take a closer look at each one.

Could FedEx Be Ready for a Comeback?

FedEx (FDX) had a rough go last quarter, missing its EPS estimates and slashing its full-year outlook thanks to softening demand and losing a USPS contract. That combination of earnings shortfall and downgraded guidance spooked investors, with FDX’s stock price tumbling more than 10% in the days following the release. After “Liberation Day,” share prices traded even lower.

FedEx continues to take steps to cut costs and segment spinoffs to streamline and turn the stock around. Can FedEx do it fast enough? Any positive forward guidance will be critical to drive a sustained rebound in the stock’s price.

From a technical perspective, FDX shares have bounced back to the levels traded after its last quarterly results. The stock price is coiling between its longer-term downtrend and near-term uptrend from the lows.

The good news is that shares have recaptured their 50-day moving average; the bad news is that price is bumping up to its longer-term downtrend. Something’s got to give.

  • The average move post-earnings is +/-5.6%. 
  • An upward move should break it out of this downtrend and set shares on a path towards its 200-day moving average, which is just under $255.
  • A downward move would break the near-term downtrend, but could pause around the 50-day moving average and a consolidation area around $215.

Playing this stock into earnings has been a fool’s game. Wait for the dust to settle before jumping in. That could mean:

  • A break below the 50-day moving average and a move to the $200 level.
  • A gap up, which could mean the end of this downtrend and should be chased to the 200-day moving average.

Micron: Time for a Breather?

Micron Technology (MU) has been on fire since selling off during the “Liberation Day” chaos. It broke below a major support area, but quickly recaptured it.

The pendulum price action was a wild swing in the opposite direction. MU’s stock price broke out above a major resistance area and is in a precarious position as Micron heads into Wednesday’s quarterly results.

MU’s stock price is extremely overbought and may struggle to keep this upward momentum going. We have seen other tech stocks, such as Broadcom (AVGO) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), experience similar moves going into earnings. Both stocks reported solid quarters and guided higher, yet sold off.

Given the 100% gain from its April 7 lows, the overbought condition, and natural support areas (old resistance) at the $114 area, a pullback to here seems logical. The area below $114 to watch is the rising 200-day moving average, which is around $96 and seems like a better entry point than chasing the stock now.

Good earnings numbers should see a small fade to the $114 area and then hold. That is what happened in other stocks with big run-ups into earnings: a fade back to the recent breakout. If Micron reports numbers below estimates and/or weak guidance, expect a deeper pullback to the 200-day, which should act as strong support if tested again. Any further rally should be faded as MU nears $150 and all-time highs. That could put its relative strength index (RSI) into the 90s; historically, that doesn’t hold for very long.

Nike (NKE): Waiting for a Spark

Nike (NKE) has traded lower after eight of its last nine earnings reports, including the last six in a row. Shares are still down 66% from their 2021 all-time highs and, year-to-date, are lower by 21%.

It has been a tough environment for the iconic sports brand. Shareholders have been anxiously waiting for new management to turn things around, but high inventories and now tariff concerns have stymied any sense of a sustainable rally.

Technically speaking, things aren’t looking good. Investors are looking for any sign of a turnaround or a tradable bottom. While there has been minor progress coming off the lows, there’s nothing to indicate the stock is back.

Momentum indicators have turned bearish. The RSI has crossed below its midline, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) had a bearish crossover.

Entering the week, the stock is at a good support level around $59, which brings the 50-day moving average and recent lows into play. While NIKE’s stock price has a lot to reverse and looks tempting, there is still much overhead resistance to give the all clear and jump into the trade, based on this week’s earnings. Positive news could see a tradeable upside to its 200-day moving average, which should then be faded.

For this stock to finally reverse, it needs more time and a few quarters of solid growth. It may be wiser to buy shares on a breakdown towards its lows around $52. If that occurs, then expect it to hold and rally back over the weeks ahead of its next quarterly result. 

The Bottom Line

This week’s earnings action is a good reminder to stay patient and be selective. Watch how these stocks react after earnings rather than trying to forecast the move. Sometimes, waiting for confirmation is the best strategy, especially when markets are so reactive.