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The week that went by was a short trading week with just three trading days. However, the Indian equities continued to surge higher, demonstrating resilience, and the week ended on a positive note. In the week before this one, the Nifty was able to defend the 100-week MA; last week, it surged higher and closed just at the 50-week MA. The trading range got narrower; the Index oscillated in a 665.35-point range. The volatility, too, cooled off; the India Vix declined by 23.08% to 15.47. While staying largely stable with a strong underlying bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 1023.10 points (+4.48%).

There are a few technical levels that need to be closely observed. The Nifty resisted the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 23395 before breaking out above that level. Zooming out to the weekly chart, the Nifty has closed at the 50-week MA, currently placed at 23885. This point and the 200-DMA at 24050 create an important resistance zone for the Nifty. While there is room for Nifty to move higher towards the 24000 level, there are strong possibilities of the markets consolidating between the 23900 and 24000 levels. While no major drawdowns are expected, there is a high chance that the upmove may at least take a breather around this level. It is important to watch Nifty’s behavior against this level.

The coming week may start on a stable note; the levels of 24,000 and 24,210 are likely to act as resistance points. The support will come lower at 23500 and then at 23345, which is the 20-week MA.

The weekly RSI is 53.94; it has formed a 14-period high, indicating a bullish trend. The weekly MACD has shown a positive crossover; it is now bullish and trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis on the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has returned to the important level of the 50-week moving average, which it previously violated when it initiated its corrective move. This level and the 200-DMA placed at a short distance at 24050 are likely to offer resistance. This would mean that the markets are entering a major resistance zone; unless 24050 is taken out on the upside, we can expect the markets to consolidate, showing minor retracements over the coming days.

Overall, it is time for one to focus on protecting the gains at higher levels. While one may continue staying invested on the long side, new purchases must focus on the pockets that have shown the improvement of relative strength at lower levels and show strong signs of reversing their trend. Effective rotation into sectors that show improvement in their relative strength and protecting gains in the pockets that have run up hard would be important. A cautiously positive outlook is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank and Consumption sector Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Commodities, Financial Services, Banknifty, Infrastructure, and Metal Index are also placed inside the leading quadrant. While the Metal Index is showing a weakening of relative momentum, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 index.

There are no sectors inside the weakening quadrant.

The Pharma Sector Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The IT index also continues to languish inside this quadrant, along with the Midcap 100 index. The  Realty and the Media Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant; however, they are seen sharply improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to continue improving on their relative performance over the coming week.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Harvard’s brewing conflict with the Trump administration could come at a steep cost — even for the nation’s richest university.

On April 14, Harvard University President Alan Garber announced the institution would not comply with the administration’s demands, including to “audit” Harvard’s students and faculty for “viewpoint diversity.” The federal government, in response, froze $2.2 billion in multi-year grants and $60 million in multi-year contracts with the university.

According to CNN and multiple other news outlets, the Trump administration has now asked the Internal Revenue Service to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status. If the IRS follows through, it would have severe consequences for the university. The many benefits of nonprofit status include tax-free income on investments and tax deductions for donors, education historian Bruce Kimball told CNBC.

Bloomberg estimated the value of Harvard’s tax benefits in excess of $465 million in 2023.

Nonprofits can lose their tax exemptions if the IRS determines they are engaging in political campaign activity or earning too much income from unrelated activities. Few universities have lost their non-profit status. One of the few examples was Christian institution Bob Jones University, which lost its tax exemption in 1983 for racially discriminatory policies.

White House spokesperson Harrison Fields told the Washington Post that the IRS started investigating Harvard before President Donald Trump suggested on Truth Social that the university should be taxed as a “political entity.” The Treasury Department did not reply to a request for comment from CNBC.

A Harvard spokesperson told CNBC that the government has “no legal basis to rescind Harvard’s tax exempt status.”

“The government has long exempted universities from taxes in order to support their educational mission,” the spokesperson wrote in a statement. “Such an unprecedented action would endanger our ability to carry out our educational mission. It would result in diminished financial aid for students, abandonment of critical medical research programs, and lost opportunities for innovation. The unlawful use of this instrument more broadly would have grave consequences for the future of higher education in America.” 

The federal government has challenged Harvard on yet another front, with the Department of Homeland Security threatening to stop international students from enrolling. The Student and Exchange Visitor Program is administered by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which falls under the DHS.

International students make up more than a quarter of Harvard’s student body. However, Harvard is less financially dependent on international students than many other U.S. universities as it already offers need-based financial aid to international students in its undergraduate program. Many other universities require international students to pay full tuition.

The Harvard spokesperson declined to comment to CNBC on whether the university would sue the administration over the federal funds or any other grounds. Lawyers Robert Hur of King & Spalding and William Burck of Quinn Emanuel are representing Harvard, stating in a letter to the federal government that its demands violate the First Amendment.

Harvard, the nation’s richest university, has more resources than other academic institutions to fund a long legal battle and weather the storm. However, its massive endowment — which has raised questions during the recent developments — is not a piggy bank.

Harvard has an endowment of nearly $52 billion, averaging $2.1 million in endowed funds per student, according to a study by the National Association of College and University Business Officers, or NACUBO, and asset manager Commonfund.

That size makes it larger than than the GDP of many countries.

The endowment generated a 9.6% return last fiscal year, which ended June 30, according to the university’s latest annual report.

Founded in 1636, Harvard has had more time to accumulate assets as the nation’s oldest university. It also has robust donor base, receiving $368 million in gifts to the endowment in 2024. While the university noted that more than three-quarters of the gifts averaged $150 per donor, Harvard has a history of headline-making donations from ultra-rich alumni.

Kimball, emeritus professor of philosophy and history of education at the Ohio State University, attributes the outsized wealth of elite universities like Harvard to a willingness to invest in riskier assets.

University endowments were traditionally invested very conservatively, but in the early 1950s Harvard shifted its allocation to 60% equities and 40% bonds, taking on more risk and creating the opportunity for more upside.

“Universities that didn’t want to assume the risk fell behind,” Kimball told CNBC in March.

Other universities soon followed suit, with Yale University in the 1990s pioneering what would become the “Yale Model” of investing in alternative assets like hedge funds and natural resources. Though it proved lucrative, only universities with large endowments could afford to take on the risk and due diligence that was needed to succeed in alternative investments, according to Kimball.

According to Harvard’s annual report, the largest chunks of the endowment are allocated to private equity (39%) and hedge funds (32%). Public equities constitute another 14% while real estate and bonds/TIPs make up 5% each. The remainder is divided between cash and other real assets, including natural resources.

The university has made substantial portfolio allocation changes over the past seven years, the report notes. The Harvard Management Company has cut the endowment’s exposure to real estate and natural resources from 25% in 2018 to 6%. These cuts allowed the university to increase its private equity allocation. To limit equity exposure, the endowment has upped its hedge fund investments.

University endowments, though occasionally staggering in size, are not slush funds. The pools are actually made up of hundreds or even thousands of smaller funds, the majority of which are restricted by donors to be dedicated to areas including professorships, scholarships or research.

Harvard has some 14,600 separate funds, 80% of which are restricted to specific purposes including financial aid and professorships. Last fiscal year, the endowment distributed $2.4 billion, 70% of which was subject to donors’ directives.

“Most of that money was put in for a specific purpose,” Scott Bok, former chairman of the University of Pennsylvania, told CNBC in March. “Universities don’t have the ability to break open the proverbial piggy bank and just grab the money in whatever way they want.”

Some of these restrictions are overplayed, according to former Northwestern University President Morton Schapiro.

“It’s true that a lot of money is restricted, but it’s restricted to things you’re going to spend on already like need-based aid, study abroad, libraries,” Bok said previously.

Harvard has $9.6 billion in endowed funds that are not subject to donor restrictions. The annual report notes that “while the University has no intention of doing so,” these assets “could be liquidated in the event of an unexpected disruption” under certain conditions.

Liquidating $9.6 billion in assets, nearly 20% of total endowed funds, would come at the cost of future cash flow, as the university would have less to invest.

Harvard did not respond to CNBC’s queries about increasing endowment spending. Like most universities, it aims to spend around 5% of its endowment every year. Assuming the fund generates high-single-digit investment returns, spending just 5% allows the principal to grow and keep pace with inflation.

For now, Harvard is taking a hard look at its operating budget. In mid-March, the university started taking austerity measures, including a temporary hiring pause and denying admission to graduate students waitlisted for this upcoming fall.

Harvard is also issuing $750 million in taxable bonds due September 2035. This past February, the university issued $244 million in tax-exempt bonds. A slew of universities including Princeton and Colgate are also raising debt this spring.

So far, Moody’s has not updated its top-tier AAA rating for Harvard’s bonds. However, when it comes to higher education as a whole, the ratings agency isn’t so optimistic, lowering its outlook to negative in March.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Alphabet’s Google illegally dominated two markets for online advertising technology, a judge ruled Thursday, dealing another blow to the tech giant and paving the way for U.S. antitrust prosecutors to seek a breakup of its advertising products.

U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, found Google liable for “willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power” in markets for publisher ad servers and the market for ad exchanges, which sit between buyers and sellers. Websites use publisher ad servers to store and manage their ad inventories.

Antitrust enforcers failed to prove a separate claim that Google had a monopoly in advertiser ad networks, she wrote.

Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s vice president of regulatory affairs, said Google will appeal the ruling.

“We won half of this case and we will appeal the other half,” she said in a statement, adding that the company disagrees with the decision about its publisher tools. “Publishers have many options and they choose Google because our ad tech tools are simple, affordable and effective.’

Google’s shares were down around 2.1% at midday.

The decision clears the way for another hearing to determine what Google must do to restore competition in those markets, such as sell off parts of its business at another trial that has yet to be scheduled.

The Justice Department has said Google should have to sell off at least its Google Ad Manager, which includes the company’s publisher ad server and ad exchange.

However, a Google representative said Thursday that Google was optimistic it would not have to divest part of the business as part of any remedy, given the court’s view that its acquisition of advertising tech companies like DoubleClick were not anticompetitive.

Google still faces the possibility that two U.S. courts will order it to sell assets or change its business practices. A judge in Washington will hold a trial next week on the Justice Department’s request to make Google sell its Chrome browser and take other measures to end its dominance in online search.

Google has previously explored selling off its ad exchange to appease European antitrust regulators, Reuters reported in September.

Brinkema oversaw a three-week trial last year on claims brought by the Justice Department and a coalition of states.

Google used classic monopoly-building tactics of eliminating competitors through acquisitions, locking customers in to using its products and controlling how transactions occurred in the online ad market, prosecutors said at trial.

Google argued the case focused on the past, when it was still working on making its tools able to connect to competitors’ products. Prosecutors also ignored competition from Amazon.com, Comcast and other technology companies as digital ad spending shifted to apps and streaming video, Google’s lawyer said.

The ruling was issued as a district court in Washington, D.C., held its fourth day of an antitrust trial between Meta and the Federal Trade Commission, in which the government similarly accused the company then known as Facebook of monopolizing the social networking market through its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp.

A Google representative said the partially favorable ruling in its case Thursday could point to success for Meta, as well, in defending its acquisitions from the government’s antitrust allegations.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Capital One Financial’s application to acquire Discover Financial Services in a $35.3 billion all-stock deal has officially been approved by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulators announced on Friday.

“The Board evaluated the application under the statutory factors it is required to consider, including the financial and managerial resources of the companies, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served by the combined organization, and the competitive and financial stability impacts of the proposal,” the Fed said in a release.

Capital One first announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Discover in February 2024. It will also indirectly acquire Discover Bank through the transaction, which was approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Friday.

Under the agreement, Discover shareholders will receive 1.0192 Capital One shares for each Discover share or about a 26% premium from Discover’s closing price of $110.49 at the time, Capital One said in a release.

Capital One and Discover are among the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., and the merger will expand Capital One’s deposit base and its credit card offerings. 

As a condition of the merger, Capital One said it will comply with the Fed’s action against Discover, according to the release. The Fed fined Discover $100 million for overcharging certain interchange fees from 2007 through 2023, and the company is repaying those fees to affected customers.

The OCC said it approved Capital One’s application on the condition that it would take “corrective actions” to remediate harm and address the “root causes” of outstanding enforcement actions against Discover.

After the deal closes, Capital One shareholders will hold 60% of the combined company, while Discover shareholders own 40%, according to the February 2024 release.

In a joint statement, Capital One and Discover said they expect to close the deal on May 18.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Target CEO Brian Cornell will meet with the Rev. Al Sharpton this week in New York as the retailer faces calls for a boycott and a slowdown in foot traffic that began after it walked back key diversity, equity and inclusion programs, the civil rights leader told CNBC Wednesday.

The meeting, which Target asked for, comes after some civil rights groups urged consumers not to shop at Target in response to the retailer’s decision to cut back on DEI. While Sharpton has not yet called for a boycott of Target, he has supported efforts from others to stop shopping at the retailer’s stores.

“You can’t have an election come and all of a sudden, change your old positions,” said Sharpton. “If an election determines your commitment to fairness then fine, you have a right to withdraw from us, but then we have a right to withdraw from you.”

The civil rights leader said he would consider calling for a Target boycott if the company doesn’t confirm its commitment to the Black community and pledge to work with and invest in Black-owned businesses.

“I said, ‘If [Cornell] wants to have a candid meeting, we’ll meet,’” Sharpton said of the phone call Target made to his office. “I want to first hear what he has to say.”

A Target spokesman confirmed to CNBC that the company reached out to Sharpton for a meeting and that Cornell will talk to him in New York this week. The company declined further comment.

In January, Target said it would end its three-year DEI goals, no longer share company reports with external diversity-focused groups like the Human Rights Campaign’s Corporate Equity Index and end specific efforts to get more products from Black- and minority-owned businesses on its shelves. 

Just days after the announcement, foot traffic at Target stores started to slow down. Since the week of Jan. 27, Target’s foot traffic has declined for 10 straight weeks compared to the year-ago period, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to estimate overall visits to locations. Target traffic had been up weekly year over year before the week of Jan. 27.

The metric, which tallies visits to brick-and-mortar locations, does not capture sales in stores or online, but can indicate which retailers are drawing steadier business. While Target has been struggling to grow its sales for months as shoppers watch their spending, the stretch of declining visits came as some civil rights groups and social media users criticized the DEI decision and urged shoppers to spend their money elsewhere.

Target declined to comment on the figures, saying it doesn’t discuss third-party data.

At the convention earlier this month for his civil rights organization, the National Action Network, Sharpton said the group would call for a boycott of PepsiCo if the company didn’t agree to meet with the organization within 21 days. In February, the food and beverage company behind brands like Doritos and Mountain Dew announced it would end its DEI workforce representation goals and transition its chief DEI officer role into another position, among other changes.

This week, leaders from Pepsi met with Sharpton and his team. He did not confirm whether Pepsi made any commitments, but did say it was encouraging that Pepsi’s CEO Ramon Laguarta attended. He added that the two will continue their discussions.

Sharpton’s meetings with companies including PepsiCo and Target — and his openness to boycotts — mark one of the first meaningful efforts to push back against the war conservative activists like Robby Starbuck have waged on DEI. Starbuck, a movie director-turned-activist, has urged companies to drop DEI policies in part by sharing what he considers unflattering information about their initiatives with his social media followers. He has successfully pressured a wide range of corporate giants to rethink their programs.

With its decision to roll back DEI efforts, the cheap chic retailer Target joined Walmart, McDonald’s, Tractor Supply and a slew of others that scrapped at least some DEI initiatives as they grew concerned that the programs could alienate some customers or land them in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump, who has vowed to end every DEI program across the federal government.

Target’s decision contrasted with Costco, which shook off pressure from conservative activists to maintain its DEI programs. Shareholders of the membership-based wholesale club soundly rejected a proposal in late January that requested a report on the risks of DEI initiatives.

NAN has called for so-called “buy-cotts” at Costco, and has brought people to stores in Tennessee, New York and New Jersey. It gave them gift cards to shop with at the warehouse club.

In the month of March, Target’s store traffic declined 6.5%, while the metric rose 7.5% year over year at Costco, Placer.ai data show.

Target’s challenges run deeper than DEI backlash, and resistance to its policy change only added to its issues. The discounter’s annual revenue has been roughly flat for four years in a row as it’s struggled to drive consistent sales gains.

Margins have been under pressure, as consumers buy more of groceries and necessities and less of more profitable categories like home goods and clothing. And the company has pinned its problems on a laundry list of problems in recent years, including having the wrong inventory; losing money from theft, damaged goods and other types of inventory losses; backlash to its collection for Pride Month and pricier costs from rushing shipments.

Competition has grown fiercer too, as big-box rival Walmart has remodeled stores, launched new private brands and attracted more high-income shoppers.

In February, Target gave weak guidance for the first quarter and said it expected sales to grow 1% for the full year. 

In his meeting with Cornell, Sharpton said he will ask for Target to follow through on pledges it made after police killed George Floyd in the company’s hometown of Minneapolis.

“You made commitments based on the George Floyd movement … what changed?” said Sharpton. “Are you trying to say … everything’s fine now, because the election changed? That’s insulting to us.”

In the wake of Floyd’s murder, Cornell said the event moved him.

“That could have been one of my Target team members,” Cornell said in 2021 at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago, recounting his thoughts as he watched the video of Floyd taking his final breaths.

At the time, he said it motivated him to step up Target’s efforts to fight racial inequities.

“We have to be the role models that drive change and our voice is important,” he said at the event. “We’ve got to make sure that we represent our company principles, our values, our company purpose on the issues that are important to our teams.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

French luxury group Hermès will raise its U.S. prices from the start of May in order to offset the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the company’s finance chief said Thursday.

The company — which earlier this week overtook rival LVMH as the world’s biggest luxury firm by market capitalization — is best-known for its Birkin and Kelly handbags, along with colorful scarves retailing for hundreds of dollars. Other products include jewelry, watches, shoes, perfume and make-up.

“The price increase that we’re going to implement will be just for the U.S. since it’s aimed at offsetting the tariffs that only apply to the American market, so there won’t be price increases in the other regions,” Eric du Halgouët, Hermès’ executive vice president for finance, said during an analyst call that followed the firm’s first-quarter results release on Thursday.

Hermès said prices will rise from May 1 and aim to “fully offset” the impact of the universal 10% tariff imposed by the White House in early April, rather than the 20% duties the European Union may face unless it can negotiate a new deal during Trump’s 90-day reprieve.

U.S. consumers are expected to contend with higher prices on a host of items, ranging from electronics and clothes to cars and houses, as the impact of tariffs bites.

In its first-quarter results, Hermès reported 11% sales growth in the Americas, which accounted for nearly 17% of its sales revenue in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter revenue growth came in at 7% on a constant currency basis overall, just shy of consensus expectations of an 8% to 9% increase, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. It also represented a slowdown from 17.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Deutsche Bank analysts said that the results were nonetheless “robust,” with weakness driven by watches and perfume sales, while Citi described them as “a respectable outcome.”

Hermès shares dipped 1.3% in Thursday morning deals, taking its value to 244.5 billion euros ($278.2 billion) — just shy of LVMH’s 245.7 billion euros — according to a CNBC calculation of LSEG data.

LVMH, controlled by France’s billionaire Arnault family, unsuccesfully tried to acquire Hermès a decade ago. Despite drawing level in market cap, Hermès’ annual revenue is less than a fifth that of sprawling LVMH, which owns luxury brands Louis Vuitton and Dior, alcohol business Moët Hennessy, U.S. jeweler Tiffany and beauty chain Sephora.

LVMH on Tuesday reported an unexpected decline in first quarter sales, flagging a fall in its dominant fashion and leather goods division.

Analysts have predicted the luxury sector will be less impacted by tariffs than other retailers due to their ability to pass on increased import costs to a high-spending clientele. However, they would encounter major headwinds from a broad pullback in consumer spending as a result of weaker global economic growth or recessionary fears.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

With so many articles and videos on popular media channels advising you not to look at your 401(k) during this market downturn, avoiding taking the other side is tough. If you are close to retirement or retired, isn’t a market downturn a good excuse to look at your 401(k)? After all, you’ve stashed away hard-earned money to enjoy those big post-retirement plans.

The stock market is well-known for its uncanny ability to throw you surprises, but the recent headline-driven price action is especially difficult to navigate. While it’s true that, over the longer term, the broader market tends to trend higher, if you’re not in a position to patiently wait for that to occur, you may want to reevaluate your portfolio sooner rather than later. The “set-it-and-forget-it” strategy can work at times but not always.

Is the Stock Market Headed Lower?

Let’s look at where the overall stock market stands by analyzing the S&P 500 ($SPX), starting with the daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. After falling below its 200-day moving average, the S&P 500 is struggling to remain above its 5400 level. Will it hold? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s clear the S&P 500 is trending lower and that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed below the 200-day SMA, further confirming the downward trend of the index. After reaching a high of 6147.43 on February 19, 2025, $SPX started its decline, falling below its 50-day SMA and then its 200-day SMA.

Although the index tried to bounce back to its 200-day SMA, it failed to break above it and fell to a low of 4835.04 on April 7, 2025. Since then, the S&P 500 has been trying to bounce back. It filled the April 4 down gap, but has been stalling around the 5400 level since then, on lower volume. It’s almost as if investors are sitting on the sidelines for the next tariff-related news which could send the S&P 500 higher or lower.

Going back, the 5400 was a support level for the September 2024 lows, between the end of July and early August, and in mid-June. There have also been price gaps at this level during those times. The chart of the S&P 500 has a horizontal line overlay at the 5400 level. This could act as a resistance level for a while, or the index could soar above it, in which case this level could act as a support level.

Save the chart in one of your ChartLists and watch how the price action unfolds for the next few weeks.

Where’s the Breadth?

It’s worth monitoring the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) of the S&P 500. The chart below displays the S&P 500 BPI ($BPSPX) in the top panel and $SPX in the bottom panel.

FIGURE 2. BULLISH PERCENT INDEX FOR THE S&P 500. The $BPSPX recovered after falling below 12.5. Even a move over 50 should be eyed with caution. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The recent slide in the S&P 500 took the $BPSPX to well below 12.5. It has reversed and is above 30, which is encouraging. A rise above 50 is bullish but, as you can see in the chart, the last time $BPSPX crossed above 50 (dashed blue vertical lines), it turned back lower, only to start its descent to the lowest level in the past year. Save your excitement until the $BPSPX is over 50 and a turnaround in the $SPX is in place.

This could take a while, which is why, if you’re close to retirement or already retired, you may have to consider selling the rip, or if the situation turns bullish, buy the dip. It may be time to unwind some positions, so evaluate your portfolio and make decisions that are aligned with your lofty retirement plans.

So, heck yeah! Look at your 401(k) now!


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Moving average strategy, trend trading, and multi-timeframe analysis are essential tools for traders. In this video, Joe demonstrates how to use two key moving averages to determine if a stock is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways phase. He then expands on applying this concept across multiple timeframes to gain a significant edge when trading pullbacks.

In addition, Joe provides insights into the current state of commodities, highlighting areas showing signs of improvement, and covers major indices. Finally, he addresses viewer-submitted symbol requests, including LMT, BABA, and more, offering his technical analysis on each.

The video premiered on April 16, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

When markets get more volatile and more unstable, I get the urge to take a step back and reflect on simple assessments of trend and momentum.  Today we’ll use one of the most common technical indicators, the 200-day moving average, and discuss what this simple trend-following tool can tell us about conditions for the S&P 500 index.

Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average

I’ve received a number of questions recently as to why I’m not way more bullish after the sudden rally off last Wednesday’s low.  I love to respond with Paul Tudor Jones’ famous quote, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.”

To be clear, the 200-day moving average is almost 500 points above current levels, so it would take quite a rally to achieve that price level any time soon.  But with the VIX still well above the 30 level, that means the market is expecting wide price swings and big moves could be very possible.

But generally speaking, any time I see a chart where the price is below a downward-sloping 200-day moving average, I feel comfortable making the basic assumption that the primary trend is down.  And until the SPX can regain this long-term trend barometer, I’m inclined to treat the market as “guilty until proven innocent.”

Tracking the 200-Day With the New Market Summary Page

The new and updated version of the StockCharts Market Summary page features a table of major equity indexes and includes a comparison to the 200-day moving average for each index.  I’ve sorted today’s table in descending order based on this metric, which allows us to compare the relative position of different indexes and focus on which areas of the equity market are showing real strength.

We can see that only the Dow Utilities remain above the 200-day moving average, even with the strong bounce we’ve observed over the last week.  The S&P 500 is about 8% below its 200-day moving average, and for the Nasdaq Composite it’s over 11%.  So this basically implies that the S&P could see another 8% rally, drawing in all sorts of investors, yet still remain in a bearish phase based on its position relative to the 200-day.

Three Stocks Facing a Crucial Test This Week

One chart I’m watching closely this week involves three key growth stocks that are actually very near their own 200-day moving average.  If these Magnificent 7 stocks have enough upside momentum to power through the 200-day, then there could definitely be hope for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to follow suit in the coming weeks.  

Note in the top panel how Meta Platforms (META) powered above the 200-day last Wednesday after the announcement of a 90-day pause in tariffs.  But after closing above the 200-day for that one day, META broke right back below the next day.  META has closed lower every trading day since that breakout.

Neither Amazon.com (AMZN) nor Tesla (TSLA) reached their own 200-day on last Wednesday’s rally, and both are now rapidly approaching their lows for 2025.  And if mega cap growth stocks like META, AMZN, and TSLA are unable to power above their 200-day moving averages, why should we expect our growth-dominated benchmarks to do the same?

With a flurry of news headlines every trading day, and an earnings season that could paint a disturbing picture of lowered expectations for economic growth and consumer sentiment, I feel that there is more downside to be had before the great bear market of 2025 is completed.  But instead of trying to predict the future, I choose to simply follow the trends.  And based on the shape of the 200-day moving average for these important charts, the primary trend appears to still be down.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

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Chinese online retailer Temu, whose “Shop like a billionaire” marketing campaign made its way to last year’s Super Bowl, has dramatically slashed its online ad spending in the U.S. and seen its ranking in Apple’s App Store plunge following President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on trade partners.

Temu, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, had been on an online advertising blitz in recent years in a bid to attract deal-hungry American shoppers to its site. With hefty spending on TV ads as well across Facebook, the company promoted clothing, jewelry, home goods and electronics at bargain basement prices.

The strategy was so effective that Temu topped Apple’s list of the most downloaded free apps in the U.S. for the past two years. Downloads of Temu on Apple’s App Store have fallen 62% in recent days, according to data from SimilarWeb, a digital data and analytics company. Ads for 50-cent eyebrow trimmers and $5 t-shirts that used to blanket Google search results and Facebook feeds have all but disappeared.

President Trump’s tariffs have upended Temu’s business model, along with its advertising strategy. Packages shipped from China are now subject to a tariff rate of 145%, while the de minimis provision, which allows shipments worth less than $800 to enter the country duty-free, is set to go away on May 2.

Temu and Shein, a fast-fashion marketplace with ties to China, plan to raise their prices in response to the tariffs. Both companies posted notices to their websites in recent days that warned they’ll be raising prices late next week.

“Due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs, our operating expenses have gone up,” Temu said on its site. “To keep offering the products you love without compromising on quality, we will be making price adjustments starting April 25, 2025.”

Sellers on Amazon’s third-party marketplace, many of whom source their products from China, have said they’re considering raising prices as they reckon with higher costs from the tariffs. Many businesses on TikTok Shop, the social media app’s marketplace, also count on Chinese manufacturers for their items.

Amazon launched a competitor to Temu last November, called Amazon Haul, which features items under $20 that are largely from China.

The Temu app is now No. 69 in a list of the top free apps in the U.S., after consistently ranking in the top 10, according to data from Sensor Tower. Shein is currently at 42, down from 15 last month. PDD’s shares that trade in the U.S. have plummeted 22% this month, compared to the Nasdaq’s 6% drop. Shein is privately held.

Rival Chinese retailers have subsequently risen to the top of the app store ranks, including Beijing-based wholesaler DHgate, which surged to the No. 2 top free iPhone app in the U.S., and Alibaba’s Taobao, which ranked No. 7. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that viral videos promoting their cheap products have spurred the download frenzy.

A separate analysis by SimilarWeb showed Temu’s paid traffic, or search, display and social media advertising that drove visits to its website, has dropped 77% since April 11. Temu’s paid traffic previously outpaced nonpaid traffic to its website by 2 1/2 times, Ben Parkes, a consumer goods and retail analyst at Similarweb, said in an interview.

Marketing firm Tinuiti found that 20% of U.S. Google Shopping ad impressions were bought by Temu on April 5. A week later, that number had fallen to zero. By comparison, Shein’s impressions remained at 17% on April 12, while 60% of impressions were bought by Amazon.

Representatives from Temu and Shein didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Temu was previously one of Meta’s largest advertisers, but it appears to have dramatically scaled back its spending on the platform. As of Wednesday, Temu is running six ads across Meta platforms in the U.S., a review of Meta’s ad library shows. Temu is running approximately 27,000 ads across Meta sites and apps globally, particularly in Europe and the U.K.

That could be troublesome for Meta’s advertising business, which has gotten a significant boost from the discount retailer. Advertising analyst Brian Wieser at Madison and Wall estimated that more than $7 billion of Meta’s $132 billion in ad revenue in 2023 came from China. Meta is scheduled to report first-quarter results on April 30.

E-commerce analyst Juozas Kaziukenas said he expects Temu to turn its ads back on in the U.S. at some point, but that the company appears to be shifting its dollars to other markets in the interim.

“It doesn’t mean Temu usage has dropped as significantly as the app did,” Kaziukenas said in an email. “But it means that new user acquisition is gone.”

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