Germany, Europe’s largest economy and normally a pillar of stability, is facing snap elections next year after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence.
His government collapsed in November in a budget dispute but his coalition had been unsteady for months.
Scholz lost the vote, which he called himself as a step toward securing an early national election, with 394 ballots against him, 207 in his favor and 116 abstentions.
With the election date set for February 23 next year, here’s what’s at stake.
Who’s running?
There will be seven major parties for which Germans will vote. Four of the seven have made official announcements about their Kanzlerkandidaten – candidates for chancellor.
The ever-present two dominant parties of German politics, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), unofficially known as the Union, make up one grouping. The Social Democrats, or SPD, form another.
Given the German system of proportional representation, the government tends to be formed in a coalition, usually headed by the CDU/CSU or the SPD.
The winner looks for a partner to form a majority. Since 2021, Scholz’s SPD had governed in an uneasy coalition with the liberal Free Democrats Party (FDP) and the Green Party. In the 16 years before Scholz’s three-party coalition, the CDU, under Angela Merkel, had relied on both the SPD and the FDP as partners in different governments.
The CDU/CSU this time around will be led by Friedrich Merz, and the SPD by the incumbent but deeply unpopular chancellor, Scholz.
The far-right Alternative for Deutschland party (AfD) has seen strong performances in regional elections give it a national boost. The party’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, is its Kanzlerkandidat. She is known for slick talking and populist policies, particularly on migration. She’s an ardent supporter of upholding traditional German values, famously saying “no one touch my schnitzel!” – a reference to the popular dish.
The Green Party should also be considered one to watch. It is unlikely to gather enough votes to be the biggest party, but nonetheless could play an important role in the formation of the next government. The Greens will be led by Robert Habeck, currently the nation’s Economics Minister.
The three other major parties will be the Free Democrats; the BSW, a left-wing socialist group named after its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht; and lastly Die Linke, a left-wing political party. All three have yet to officially announce their candidates.
Barring a major and unexpected reversal in the polls, Merz of the CDU/CSU is highly likely to be Germany’s new chancellor.
National opinion polls currently have the CDU/CSU way out ahead of the others, with 32% of support from those surveyed. The AfD are currently polling in second place with 18%, the SPD in third with 16%, and the Greens with 14%.
Who is Friedrich Merz?
Merz is not a newcomer to German politics, but this is his second iteration as a politician.
Between 1989 and 1994, Merz was a member of the European Parliament (MEP) for Germany. He subsequently became a member of the Bundestag, or German parliament, representing the CDU there until 2009. He then left politics to work as a corporate lawyer, where he sat on many supervisory boards, including at investment giant BlackRock.
Merz represents the constituency of Hochsauerlandkreis in the Bundestag, the region in which he was born, and currently lives in his hometown of Brilon. He is also widely reputed to be a millionaire and has a private pilot’s license.
Merz made two failed attempts to become CDU head in 2018 and 2020. In 2021 he returned as a member of the Bundestag, for the first time in 12 years, and subsequently went on to secure the nomination as head of the CDU, officially taking over in September 2022.
He is known for having shifted the CDU to the right, with a tougher stance on migration, and a strong economic mind. During his bid to become party leader, he campaigned on not being a Merkel-style heir, unlike his challengers, thus marking the end of the centrist policies of the CDU during her era as chancellor.
Merz is a very strong proponent of backing Ukraine as it fights Russia’s full-scale invasion. He has been a vocal supporter of giving Ukraine German-made Taurus missiles, weapons that could be used to attack Russian targets far beyond Ukraine’s front lines. Scholz, by contrast, has consistently refused to supply them to Kyiv.
Merz made a surprise trip to the Ukrainian capital earlier this month, where he urged European nations to form a “common vision” for peace in Ukraine, especially given the impending arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump in the White House.
What are the main issues?
The economy is going to play a central role in the election, particularly given its sluggish performance under Scholz.
In recent days the German Central Bank has revised down predicted growth forecasts by 0.2%, stating that “the German economy is set to stagnate in the winter half-year 2024-25 and only begins to make a slow recovery over the course of 2025.”
Connected to the debate on the economy will be a focus on reviving the country’s important automotive industry. The Central Bank has said that problems within the industry are “structural,” and are thus exacerbating the drag on the economy.
Major companies including Volkswagen, one of world’s largest car manufacturers, are facing major layoffs and plant closures.
Arguments over immigration will also be critical in this election, particularly as parties look to lure votes away from a surging AfD, which has made it a core issue.
Scholz reintroduced checks on borders with neighboring European nations in recent months, a move many saw as him trying to curry favor with voters who may be turning towards the populist AfD.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will also play into the national debate. Germany took in more Syrian migrants than any other European nation during its civil war. Campaigning around how each party would handle immigrants has already started.
What happens post-election?
It is very hard to see an outcome where the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz do not emerge victorious.
Their lead appears cemented and unassailable, but the major question surrounds the formation of a stable government. The CDU/CSU are unlikely to win an outright majority of the 630 seats up for grabs. That means they will have to form a coalition with one (or more) of the other parties. The question is who?
Should the AfD perform as the opinion polls suggest, it would mark a major sea change in German politics. Since its formation in 2013, the party has never gained more than 94 seats. It finished as the fifth biggest party in 2021 and third largest in 2017.
While the AfD will see themselves as potential kingmakers, the CDU/CSU may be unwilling to give them such a prominent voice in running the country.
That leaves the SPD, with whom they have worked previously, particularly in the Merkel era. Or, they could look further left towards the Greens, but that also may come with a clash of principles and policies, given their more left-leaning nature.
An alleged Chinese spy who forged a close relationship with Prince Andrew has been identified by a British court, the latest twist in a case that has shone a light on Beijing’s influence inside Britain’s institutions.
The man, Yang Tengbo, was identified after a judge ruled his anonymity should be removed, PA Media reported on Monday.
Yang, who also went by the name Chris Yang, was described in a separate court hearing last week as developing an “unusual degree of trust” with the younger brother of King Charles.
He was the co-founder of Pitch@Palace China, which expanded into China an initiative for entrepreneurs that was set up by Andrew in 2014.
In a tribunal hearing on Thursday that upheld an earlier decision to bar Yang from the UK, it was revealed that he was authorized to act on Andrew’s behalf during business meetings with potential Chinese investors in the UK, and that he was invited to Andrew’s 60th birthday party in 2020.
Yang has appeared in pictures and videos with Andrew during Pitch@Palace events.
Yang said in a statement he had “done nothing wrong or unlawful,” and that the “widespread description of me as a ‘spy’ is entirely untrue,” PA Media said.
Andrew’s office said last week that the prince ceased his relationship with Yang after receiving government advice. “The Duke met the individual through official channels with nothing of a sensitive nature ever discussed,” his office said. “He is unable to comment further on matters relating to national security.”
Concern over China’s influence in Britain’s politics and institutions has been steadily mounting in Westminster in recent years, and the case is just the latest example of an alleged infiltration by Beijing.
Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee released a report in 2023 outlining its view that China was seeking to target and influence people in the UK’s political system.
Yang is alleged to have worked for China’s United Front Work Department (UFWD), a branch of the ruling Communist Party tasked with gaining influence both at home and overseas. The report described the UFWD – as working to “ensure that politicians and high-profile figures in foreign states are supportive of the CCP, or at the very least do not criticise China or counter its narrative.”
‘Tip of the iceberg’
Yang joins a growing number of people who have been accused of spying on behalf of China from inside the heart of Britain’s institutions.
Two men, one of them a parliamentary researcher, are awaiting trial after being charged with breaching the Official Secrets Act on behalf of China, which they deny.
And in 2022 the MI5 spy agency warned lawmakers that Christine Lee, a woman connected to the Chinese Communist Party, had been working to interfere in the UK political process.
Former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith, who raised the incident in an urgent question in the House of Commons on Monday, told the BBC the case was “the tip of the iceberg.”
“The reality is that there are many, many more involved in exactly this kind of espionage that’s taking place,” he said.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters on Monday: “Of course we are concerned about the challenge that China poses.”
But he resisted calls to toughen Britain’s policy on China. Starmer in November became the first prime minister to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping for six years. He reiterated Monday: “Our approach is one of engagement, of co-operating where we need to co-operate, particularly on issues like climate change, to challenge where we must and where we should, particularly on issues like human rights and to compete when it comes to trade.”
A Palestinian grandfather in Gaza whose tribute to his slain granddaughter went viral last year was killed by Israeli fire on Monday, his family and a hospital said.
Khaled Nabhan drew global attention in a widely shared social media video of his moment of grief in November 2023, as he kissed his lifeless granddaughter Reem goodbye – the 3-year-old girl he called “the soul of my soul.”
His grandchildren, Reem and 5-year-old Tarek, were killed while they were sleeping in their bed last November. Their home was brought down by what Nabhan said at the time was a nearby Israeli airstrike in the Al Nuseirat refugee camp in southern Gaza.
On Monday,Khaled was killed by an Israeli tank shell, according to Al-Awda Hospital in Nuseirat, central Gaza.
Saed said eyewitnesses told him that his uncle “saw injured people and ran to help, but he was instantly killed by another tank shell.”
He added:“What a great man we have lost. We will never have someone like him again.”
In footage shared on social media by local journalists in Gaza, Nabhan’s lifeless body is seen lying on a hospital bed, covered in blood, as weeping crowds huddle around him.
“Oh, Abu Diaa,” people are heard crying, referring to Nabhan by his nickname.
Twelve people have been found dead at a ski resort in the former Soviet country of Georgia, police said.
The bodies of 11 Indian nationals and one Georgian citizen were discovered on the second floor above an Indian restaurant in Gudauri, the largest ski resort in the country, local police said in a statement issued Saturday.
The 12 people all worked in the building where their bodies were found, the statement added.
The Indian Embassy in Tbilisi said it was “committed to providing all possible support” to the bereaved families and that it was working to repatriate the bodies of the 11 Indian nationals.
Preliminary tests found no traces of violence on the bodies, police said, adding that a power generator had been placed indoors, near the bedrooms, and turned on after the power supply went down on Friday.
Police have launched an investigation into the incident under Article 116 of the country’s criminal code, suggesting negligent manslaughter.
Gudauri, lodged high up in the Caucasus Mountains close to the border with Russia, is becoming increasingly popular with tourists, offering a cheaper alternative to Europe’s main resorts in the Alps. More than 300,000 international travelers visited the Gudauri resort in 2023, according to a local consulting firm.
The resort’s parking lot sits at 7,200 feet (2,195 meters) – higher than the tops of many slopes in the Alps. Gudauri offers 56 kilometers (35 miles) of skiable terrain, climbing to a peak of 10,750 feet (3,277 meters).
The resort is around 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the capital, Tbilisi, which has for weeks been wracked by protests following the decision by the increasingly autocratic government to halt talks to join the European Union. The protests have been met by a brutal police response.
On Saturday, Georgian lawmakers voted in Mikheil Kavelashvili, a far-right former soccer star, as the country’s next president, deepening tensions between the Kremlin-friendly government and pro-Western opposition.
Ukraine said on Monday that North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops suffered heavy losses during fighting at the weekend in the Russian region of Kursk.
North Korean units that arrived in Kursk last month were involved in assaults at the weekend near three villages, according to Ukraine’s defense intelligence service.
It added that some 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or wounded in the fighting and three had gone missing during clashes near the villages of Plekhovo, Vorozhba and Martynovka close to the border.
Separately, a Ukrainian frontline drone unit posted video on Sunday purporting to show the bodies of more than 20 North Korean soldiers lined up in an icy field. The quality of the video was not good enough to verify their identity.
One Ukrainian unit reported that Koreans – wearing different uniforms from the Russians – had launched infantry attacks using the “same tactics as 70 years ago,” in an apparent reference to the Korean War, where waves of infantry were used.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last month that North Korean troops deployed to Kursk had been involved in combat, adding that clashes had resulted in fatalities.
Since the beginning of December, North Korean troops appear to have been playing a more prominent role on the front lines in Kursk, especially as infantry.
Ukraine estimates that about 12,000 North Korean soldiers are in the region trying to assist Russian units in recovering parts of Kursk taken in a Ukrainian offensive in August.
The fighting around Plekhovo began earlier this month as Russian units tried to push Ukrainian forces back toward the border, some four kilometers (2.5 miles) away.
A Ukrainian military blogger, Yuriy Butusov, said on Facebook that a major assault had been repelled on Saturday.
Butusov said that North Korean infantry was backed by “massive fire support” from Russian units, as well as electronic warfare against Ukrainian drones.
“Despite the losses, the enemy assault groups continued to advance, never stopping even under precision fire and shelling.”
“The enemy managed to reach the Ukrainian positions due to their good physical training, fast movement, and ignorance of their own losses; no evacuation of the wounded and dead was carried out during the assault,” Butusov commented, adding that “our troops launched several successful counterattacks to restore the situation.”
It is unclear which side – if either – now holds the village of Plekhovo.
McKinsey & Company agreed to pay $650 million in a deferred prosecution agreement that will resolve a federal criminal probe into the company’s consulting work advising Purdue Pharma on how to increase sales of its opioid painkiller OxyContin, a court filing said Friday.
A former top partner at McKinsey, Martin Elling, also agreed to plead guilty to obstruction of justice next month in the probe by the U.S. Department of Justice, according to a filing in U.S. District Court in Abingdon, Virginia.
The criminal charging document that McKinsey agreed to have filed by prosecutors alleges the consulting giant “knowingly and intentionally” conspired with Purdue Pharma “and others to aid and abet the misbranding of prescription drugs.”
The document also said McKinsey is accused, through the acts of its then-partner Elling, of “knowingly destroying and concealing records and documents with the intent” to impede the investigation by the Department of Justice.
McKinsey, which previously agreed to pay almost $1 billion to settle lawsuits by states, local governments and others related to its opioid consulting, accepted responsibility for the conduct alleged by federal prosecutors, according to the deferred prosecution agreement.
As part of the deal, McKinsey will not work on any marketing, sale, promotion or distribution of controlled substances.
In a statement to CNBC, McKinsey said, “We are deeply sorry for our past client service to Purdue Pharma and the actions of a former partner who deleted documents related to his work for that client.”
“We should have appreciated the harm opioids were causing in our society and we should not have undertaken sales and marketing work for Purdue Pharma,” the firm said. “This terrible public health crisis and our past work for opioid manufacturers will always be a source of profound regret for our firm has requested comment from McKinsey.”
The company said that in addition to its deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ, it “has agreed to settle a related civil False Claims Act investigation and to enter into a Corporate Integrity Agreement with the Office of Inspector General at the Department of Health and Human Services.”
A rocky year for restaurants separated the industry’s biggest chains into winners and losers, as eateries competed for a smaller pool of customers who have grown more discerning about how they spend their dollars.
“I’ve been eating out less this year — it tastes just as good, and it’s way cheaper,” said Jennifer Jennings, who works in sales in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Prices for food away from home had risen 3.6% over the last 12 months as of November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Grocery prices climbed just 1.6% during the same time, making cooking at home more attractive than dining out.
In response, many consumers have cut their restaurant spending, leading to slower sales and greater competition. The value wars reignited this summer. Chains took aim at their rivals in marketing and social media posts. And restaurants ramped up innovation, hoping that new menu items could boost sluggish traffic trends.
“I think the common thread behind everything right now is that the chains that are winning aren’t standing still. They’re doing something innovative, whether that’s new menu items … maybe that’s a marketing innovation … maybe it’s just hyper-emphasizing value,” said RJ Hottovy, head of analytical research for Placer.ai.
The year started off slow, with declining year-over-year traffic in January and February, before visits picked up again in March, according to industry tracker Black Box Intelligence. But eateries struggled again over the summer as consumers tightened their belts. Even a slew of value meals that promised cheap burgers and fries couldn’t stem the tide.
As traffic has fallen, bankruptcy filings have soared. Twenty-six bars and restaurants have filed for Chapter 11 this year, just one shy of tripling 2020′s total during the pandemic, according to the Debtwire Restructuring Database. This year’s filers included big names like Red Lobster and TGI Fridays.
While traffic has improved into the fourth quarter, some industry experts say it’s too early to predict a full recovery. A Numerator survey of more than 2,000 consumers found that the majority — across all income groups — plan to maintain their current spending levels at limited-service restaurants in the coming months.
But the chains that are already winning have seen their gains grow in the fourth quarter, further fueling their success.
Here are the winners and losers of the restaurant industry in 2024:
Value became restaurant CEOs’ new favorite word this year as they sought to reverse falling sales and appeal to inflation-weary consumers.
McDonald’s rang the alarm for the industry in late April, warning that consumers have become more “discriminating.” Three months later, the company’s second-quarter sales missed estimates and foot traffic to its U.S. restaurants shrank. The burger giant responded by rolling out a $5 combo meal, and many of its rivals followed suit with their own discounts and deals.
Traffic tied to value menu deals climbed 9% through October compared with the year-ago period, according to Circana data.
But value meals alone won’t save the industry.
For one, the lift from the deals isn’t enough to offset overalltraffic declines, according to David Portalatin, Circana senior vice president and industry advisor for food and food service.
Plus, “value” has come to mean more than just the price tag. It also includes the experience and quality.
“For the low-income consumer, it’s the dollar amount that matters. For everybody else, it’s value. Even if you have money, you’re noticing things are more expensive, and you’re going to be more selective,” Michael Zuccaro, Moody’s Ratings vice president of corporate finance, told CNBC.
Fast-food restaurants have been losing customers this year, as customers pull back their spending.
Despite a proliferation of $5 combo meals, traffic to quick-service restaurants fell almost 2% this year through October, according to Circana data. That’s bad news for the industry because fast food accounts for nearly two-thirds of overall restaurant visits.
Industry experts attribute the decline in fast-food traffic largely to low-income customers. Diners who make less than $40,000 account for more than a quarter of both McDonald’s and Taco Bell’s customer bases, based on Numerator data.
Many of those consumers have chosen to spend less at fast-food restaurants, whether it’s skipping the order of French fries or forgoing a visit altogether to cook at home.
“There’s a lot more competition with grocery and other food retailers,” Hottovy said. “That’s where most of the competition is, particularly for that lower- to middle-income consumer.”
The fast-food chains performing the best right now, like Yum Brands’ Taco Bell, have high value perception.
Typically, when consumers tighten their belts in an economic downturn or recession, fast-food restaurants benefit. Even as low-income consumers cut back, higher-income consumers trade down to fast-food combo meals. But that hasn’t happened this time as consumers who make more money have instead embraced a more holistic definition of value to decide where to spend their money. Those diners want a high-quality, satisfying meal more than they care about a deal.
The fast-food chains that performed the best in 2024 tended to focus on chicken: Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane’s andWingstop.
Chicken prices have stayed relatively stable this year, while beef prices have climbed. Poultry also benefits because some consumers consider it a more healthy option than red meat, even when the chicken is breaded and fried.
Chicken has been gaining market share from beef since the chicken sandwich wars of 2019, and restaurants have been leaning into the shift in consumer behavior. McDonald’s, for example, recently added the Chicken Big Mac to its U.S. menu permanently.
Upstarts like Raising Cane’s have also been making a splash. The privately held chain, known for its chicken tenders, is the fourth-largest chicken chain in the U.S., with a market share of 7.8%, according to Barclays. The chain could soon overtake KFC, the rare chicken chain that’s struggled to resonate with U.S. consumers this year.
KFC, which is owned by Yum Brands, has fallen behind in recent years as competition has intensified. Rivals like Chick-fil-A and Popeyes have stolen market share with buzzy menu items and the consumer shift toward boneless chicken.
Those chicken chains are stealing market share from burgers. McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Restaurant Brands International’s Burger Kingall had lackluster years.
McDonald’s has long dominated the burger category, with 48.8% market share, according to Barclays. But the chain saw its grip slip earlier this year as it scared off low-income consumers with its menu prices. However, by October, things were looking up for the Golden Arches: its $5 value meal was winning back customers, and its pricier Chicken Big Mac was boosting traffic.
Then came a fatal E. Coli outbreak linked to the slivered onions used in its Quarter Pounders. While the company acted quickly to contain the fallout, sales tumbled, especially in the affected states. McDonald’s plans to chip in $165 million to help out franchisees and boost marketing efforts. The chain has also revived its popular McRib for a limited time and unveiled a new value menu that will launch in January.
Analysts are optimistic that McDonald’s will be able to put the incident behind it. Traffic turned positive in the week ended Dec. 8 for the first time since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced the outbreakon Oct. 22, according to a note from Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.
For rivals Burger King and Wendy’s, that’s bad news.
Like McDonald’s, Burger King launched a $5 value meal over the summer to appeal to thrifty consumers. Its same-store sales fell in the third quarter, although Restaurant Brands CEO Josh Kobza said the business is much healthier than it was in September 2022, when the parent company formally launched Burger King’s U.S. turnaround strategy.
Likewise, Wendy’s has been struggling to gain a foothold in the value wars. The company recently announced that it would close 140 underperforming restaurants in the fourth quarter, in the hopes that culling its footprint would boost the overall business.
But a promotion tied to the 25th anniversary of Spongebob Squarepants has been a green shoot for the burger chain. Some locations even sold out of key ingredients for the “Krabby Patty” meal, according to an October note from Wolfe Research.
Taco Bell in Gastonia, N.C.Jeff Greenberg / Universal Images via Getty Images file
Taco Bell is another rare fast-food winner.
The Mexican-inspired chain was the only one of Yum Brands’ three holdings to report same-store sales growth every quarter so far this year. (Pizza Hut and KFC actually reported three straight quarters of same-store sales declines.)
Yum executives have attributed Taco Bell’s success to consumers’ perception of its value. It was the top limited-service chain that diners across all income groups considered to be more affordable than groceries, according to a Numerator survey of more than 2,000 consumers.
Yum has also credited Taco Bell’s “brand buzz.” Look no further than actress Selena Gomez’s Instagram post sharing her recent engagement, with Taco Bell’s Mexican Pizza prominently displayed on a picnic blanket; the brand’s PR chief said in a LinkedIn post that Taco Bell didn’t sponsor the post.
And the chain keeps moving. It’s rolling out artificial intelligence software to take drive-thru orders in hundreds of locations. And in early December, it unveiled a new drink-focused concept, called the Live Mas Café. The first location is being tested in San Diego.
As Taco Bell continues to stand out, Yum plans to highlight the brand in late January with an investor presentation outlining its strategy for next year.
Fast-casual restaurants are the only restaurant segment to report traffic growth this year.
Cava’s stock has skyrocketed 192% this year. Wingstop’s quarterly same-store sales have climbed more than 20% in every report it’s released this year. And traffic to Chipotle’s restaurants keeps growing, despite online backlash over its portion sizes and the departure of longtime CEO Brian Niccol in September.
But it isn’t just those chains. Broadly, the fast-casual restaurant segment has seen traffic rise 3% through October compared with the year-ago period, according to Circana data. And dollar sales have increased 8% for the category.
“You spend more money by going out rather than staying in, and fast casual seems to strike the right balance of the value equation,” said Circana’s Portalatin.
Chipotle and its fellow fast-casual chains also benefit from a customer base that skews higher-income. Chipotle executives have previously said that they haven’t seen the same traffic reversals as the rest of the industry because the chain’s customers have more money to spend on eating out.
Of course, there were a few losers even in the fast-casual category. Chains like BurgerFi and Roti filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as their traffic fell and costs rose.
“Maybe they expanded too quickly and had other issues, and so they got into trouble,” John Bringardner, head of Debtwire.
A woman walks by a Starbucks in New York City, on April 4, 2022.Spencer Platt / Getty Images file
Niccol shocked the restaurant world in August when Starbucks announced he’d be taking over as chief executive, following his predecessor’s ouster. Chipotle’s stock fell and Starbucks shares soared on the news in a combined market cap swing of $27 billion, showing Wall Street’s belief in Niccol as a leader.
Niccol’s departure from Chipotle came six years into his tenure. He ushered the burrito chain firmly out of its foodborne illness crisis, leaned into online ordering, modernized its locations for the digital age and led the company through the pandemic. Wall Street analysts expect that his replacement, Scott Boatwright, will stay the course set by Niccol.
On the other hand, Niccol’s appointment at Starbucks will likely mean big changes for the coffee giant. The board hired him after two consecutive quarters of same-store sales declines. Customers had become fed up with its high prices and chaotic, unwelcoming stores, and even discounts and new drink launches couldn’t persuade them to return.
As CEO, Niccol has pledged to bring the company “Back to Starbucks.” In late October, he shared early thoughts to reshape the U.S. business, from small tweaks like bringing back Sharpies to much more ambitious plans, like cutting back its extensive drinks menu.
Heading into 2025, Wall Street is excited about his proposals. Piper Sandler ranked Starbucks as its best idea for restaurants that it covers. BTIG also named it as a top pick, alongside Wingstop.
Traffic to casual-dining restaurants has fallen 2% year-to-date through October, according to Circana data.
This year’s decline in visits follows years of waning demand for casual-dining chains. They’ve struggled to compete since the Great Recession, which brought the dawn of fast-casual options that offer high-quality food at cheaper prices with greater convenience.
Some consumers are also skipping casual-dining chains and instead frequenting local independents.
The segment’s biggest losers this year were Red Lobster and TGI Fridays, which both filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Red Lobster, which filed in May, has since exited bankruptcy with a new owner, leadership and strategy to turn around the business.
“You’re seeing some weeding out … of those concepts that are a little tired, a little under pressure,” Circana’s Portalatin said.
Other casual-dining chains that are struggling to win over customers include Applebee’s, owned by Dine Brands.
Still the category has some outliers, like Texas Roadhouse, Chili’s and Olive Garden. Their relative outperformance has boosted the segment’s metrics, hiding some chains’ deeper deterioration. (Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants reports its latest quarterly results on Thursday.)
While casual restaurants struggle, one bright spot was Chili’s, owned by Brinker International. A table at the chain more associated with families became a hot reservation among Gen Z diners.
The bar and grill’s turnaround finally took hold this year, boosted by sharp advertising and TikTok-viral deals. In its latest quarter, Chili’s reported same-store sales growth of 14.1%, fueled by a 6.5% increase in traffic.
The chain’s “3 for Me” bundle, priced at $10.99, appealed to consumers looking for value. Plus, Chili’s advertised the promotion by taking aim at the prices of its fast-food rivals. And its Triple Dipper combo, which offers three appetizers, took off on TikTok, causing sales of the menu item to soar more than 70% in its latest quarter compared with last year. The Triple Dipper now accounts for 11% of the chain’s business, Brinker CEO Kevin Hochman said on the company’s latest earnings call on Oct. 30.
Chili’s success has spawned copycats. Rival Applebee’s recently picked a fight with Chili’s over its competing $9.99 value meal. And Olive Garden reintroduced its Never Ending Pasta Bowl promotion.
In mid-November, restaurant executives were feeling optimistic about 2025 at the Restaurant Finance and Development Conference in Las Vegas.
Circana’s Portalin echoed that sentiment, predicting that inflation will keep declining next year, bringing some much-needed stability to prices and the overall industry.
“Think about everything consumers have dealt with over the last year: natural disasters, global conflict, the polarizing national election,” he said. “If we could get all of that in the rear view mirror, and if we can maintain some of these basic fundamentals around income and labor, we think customer traffic will improve in 2025.”
But not everyone in the industry is so sure that 2025 will bring a restaurant recovery.
“I think we’re going to continue the same mindset that we’re leaving 2024 with, this value-oriented, deal-driven consumer,” Placer.ai’s Hottovy said.
Likewise, Moody’s outlook for the restaurant industry predicts modest sales growth, but Moody’s Zuccaro said companies will all be fighting for their share.
In other words, the value wars won’t slow down — and may even intensify.
The markets had a wide-ranging week once again; however, they ended near its high point this time. The Nifty had ranged sessions for four out of five days; the last trading day of the week saw the Nifty swinging wildly before closing near its high point. The trading range also remained wider; the Index oscillated 611 points over the past sessions. The volatility, though, took a back seat. The India VIX came off by 7.69% to 13.05 on a weekly basis. The Nifty closed a notch above its immediate resistance points; the headline index finished the week with a net weekly gain of 90.50 points (+0.37%).
The week was set to end on a negative note had the markets not surged higher on Friday. From a technical perspective, Nifty has resisted the 100-DMA placed at 24709 over the past several days. Following a massive rebound that the Nifty witnessed from lower levels, the Index has closed a notch above this important resistance level. For this upmove to extend itself, Nifty will have to stay above the 24700 level. Any slippage below this point will again send the Nifty back inside the wide 24400-24700 trading range. Failure to sustain above the 24700 mark will mean an extended period of consolidation for the markets. However, the longer the Nifty stays above 24700, the greater the possibility of this upmove extending itself.
The coming week is expected to start quietly, with the levels of 24790 and 25000 acting as resistance points. The supports come in at 24590 and 24400 levels. The trading range will continue to stay wider than usual.
The weekly RSI is 56.37. It is neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line.
The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that the Nifty suffered a brutal mean reversion process. The Index was 16% higher than its 50-week MA at one point in time. During the recent sharp corrective move, the Nifty tested this level again. It subsequently found support and staged a strong technical pullback. The market’s finding support at the 50-week MA has reinforced the credibility of this level as one of the important pattern supports for the market. On the daily timeframe, the Nifty has attempted to cross above the 100-DMA level after resisting it for a couple of days.
The markets may attempt to resume the technical pullback that it started by rebounding off the 50-week MA level. For this to happen, it would be crucial for Nifty to keep its head above the 24700 mark. It is also important to note that any slip below the 27400 level would drag the markets back inside the consolidation zone. The volatility is once again towards the lower end of its range; there is a possibility that we may see a surge in volatility in the coming week. It is recommended that investors stay invested in relatively stronger stocks and sectors. Rather than blindly chasing the rising stocks, investments must be appropriately rotated into the sectors showing stronger or improving relative strength. While mindfully protecting profits at higher levels, a cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.
Sector Analysis for the coming week
In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show no major change in the sectoral setup. The Nifty Bank, Financial Services, Private Banks, and IT indices are inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.
The Pharma and Midcap 100 indices are inside the weakening quadrant. These sectors are likely to see a continued slowdown in their relative performance.
The FMCG, Energy, Media, Auto, Energy, and Infrastructure indices are inside the leading quadrant. These groups may exhibit relative underperformance against the broader Nifty 500 index.
The PSU Bank index continues to rotate firmly inside the improving quadrant. The Realty and Metal indices are also inside the improving quadrant, and these groups are likely to improve their relative performance against the broader markets.
Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
Within a day of their $25 billion merger’s falling apart in court, Kroger and Albertsons were each planning to move forward with share repurchases to boost their stock prices and reward investors.
America’s two largest grocery store operators had argued that they’d be better able to lower prices for shoppers by joining forces. Doing so, they said, would boost their negotiating power with suppliers and make it easier to take on much bigger retailers that compete with them in grocery sales, such as Walmart, Costco and Amazon.
The Biden administration disagreed, with the Federal Trade Commission saying in a lawsuit countering the merger that the deal threatened to drive down workers’ wages and bargaining power and reduce industry competition, potentially pushing food prices higher.
With the deal now dead, it’s impossible to know whether any of that would have happened. But U.S. District Judge Adrienne Nelson of Oregon sounded a note of skepticism, writing in her decision Tuesday that the chains’ promises to invest in lower prices were “neither merger-specific nor verifiable, so there is no guarantee” that shoppers would benefit.
“The promise to make a price investment is not legally binding, and the Court must give limited weight to a non-binding promise made during these proceedings,” she said. A Superior Court judge in Seattle agreed with Nelson’s ruling and issued an injunction against the merger Tuesday. On Wednesday, Albertsons terminated the deal and sued Kroger, alleging its erstwhile partner didn’t do enough to secure regulators’ blessing.
The drama unfolded just as the federal government released new inflation data for November showing grocery prices continue to inch higher.
The costs of food eaten at home were 1.6% higher last month than they were the same time last year — a smaller uptick than the 2.7% annual inflation rate overall but accelerating 0.5% from the previous month after a 0.1% rise from September to October. Food prices tend to be volatile, but a broad range of items from produce to poultry notched increases in a wholesale inflation report that came in hotter than expected Thursday.
Kroger on Wednesday reiterated its “commitment to lower prices,” saying it has invested billions in cost reductions over the past two decades. The chain also said it has spent $2.4 billion on pay hikes since 2018 and up to $3.8 billion in annual store improvements. Albertsons similarly promised to stay focused on “improving our value proposition with customers.”
Neither company offered more details about their price-cutting plans, and Albertsons declined to comment further. Kroger said only that it provides value to customers “through competitive pricing, loyalty discounts, personalized offers, fuel rewards and a unique private label portfolio.”
At the same time, both grocery chains said this week that they’d be pouring billions of dollars into moves that will benefit their shareholders.
Kroger said it would repurchase $7.5 billion of its shares after a more than two-year pause, with $5 billion of that to be repurchased in an accelerated fashion — the same sum that Kroger estimated Wednesday it has spent to lowering prices over the past 21 years. Albertsons said it would repurchase $2 billion of its shares and increase the dividend it pays to owners of its stock by 25%.
Stock repurchases — which reduce the number of shares available, driving up the value of those that remain — and dividend payments benefit all investors but especially those with the biggest stakes. Top shareholders typically include large Wall Street firms with the financial firepower to buy and hold millions of shares of publicly traded companies.
Wall Street investment firm Cerberus Capital Management is by far the largest shareholder in Albertsons, followed by the Vanguard Group, which is the country’s largest mutual fund provider, and BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with over $11.5 trillion under its supervision. Vanguard, BlackRock and billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate are the top owners of Kroger shares.
“With both of these companies, there was a lot of hope [put] into the merger — that it was a way of generating growth. Those things aren’t happening now,” said Neil Saunders, managing director of the retail consultancy GlobalData. Repurchasing shares could help inject more “optimistic sentiment” among investors, effectively reassuring them “‘we’ll generate good returns for you,’” he said.
Kroger’s stock has been trading roughly 3% higher since Wednesday, while Albertsons’ had clawed back roughly all its losses following the ruling by late Thursday.
In the meantime, consumer groups and labor advocates are hailing the blocked merger as a victory for shoppers and workers and as a vindication of the Biden administration’s antitrust efforts during its final weeks in office.
The judges in the case “correctly saw the merger as a huge threat to the jobs and benefits of thousands of their members working for those chains and the communities in which they live,” said Seth Harris, a law and policy professor at Northeastern University and a former top labor adviser in the Biden White House.
Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America, said, “Combining two of the four largest food retailers would have also reduced consumer choice, leading to fewer alternatives to low-quality, ultra-processed foods.”
“Unfortunately, the Trump administration seems unlikely to build on this important step towards restoring competition in food retail,” Gremillion said, citing President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Andrew Ferguson to replace Lina Khan atop the FTC. That’s a sign that “Big Food will only be getting bigger over the next four years,” he predicted.
In a September campaign stop at a grocery store in Kittanning, Pennsylvania, Trump slammed the Biden-Harris administration over the costs of everything from eggs and cereal to ground beef. “Bacon is through the roof,” he said.
Trump said Thursday at the New York Stock Exchange that increasing oil and natural gas drilling would help lower inflation, including for food prices, a promise energy analysts have viewed skeptically. But in a Time magazine profile published Thursday, he said of groceries: “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard.”
CORRECTION (Dec. 13, 8:40 a.m. ET): A previous version of this article misidentified Kroger’s and Albertsons’ largest shareholders. Cerberus Capital Management, not the Vanguard Group, has the biggest stake in Albertsons; Vanguard, not Cerberus, owns the most shares in Kroger.
Despite its position as a luxury automaker synonymous with prestige and performance, Ferrari N.V. (RACE) may be showing signs of a near-term downturn. Recent price action, coupled with stretched valuations and slowing shipment trends, suggests that RACE may face potential downside.
By incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis, we can see a compelling risk/reward setup for a bearish trade. The best part? This opportunity was identified automatically by the OptionsPlay Strategy Center within today and empower your trading journey with the tools and insights you need to stay ahead of the market.
