The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture for the stock market. This report will show how to interpret the performance profile and separate the leaders from the laggards using a ChartList.

The following images come from the summary view of the TrendInvestorPro core ETF ChartList, which has 72 ETFs covering equities, commodities, bonds and crypto. The period setting is year-to-date (YTD) with the first example sorted by the year-to-date percentage change (% CHG) to see the leaders at the top. I added the SMA(200) column to see how far above/below each ETF is from its 200-day SMA. There are three performance takeaways.

First takeaway: commodity ETFs are leading. The image below shows the 10 ETFs with the highest year-to-date gains. Nine of the top ten are commodity-related ETFs. We are seeing strength in precious metals (gold, silver), industrial metals (copper, copper miners) and integrated energy (XLE). Broady speaking, this tells us that commodities are preferred over stocks. 

TrendInvestorPro covered the leading equity and commodity ETFs in our reports/videos this week. We saw breakouts in Aerospace-Defense and continued leadership in Insurance. Gold has blue skies as it trades near all-time highs, while Copper is looking dicey as it goes parabolic. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

Second takeaway: Equity ETFs from non-cyclical groups show relative strength. These include Aerospace-Defense (ITA), Insurance (KIE), Healthcare (XLV), Telecom (IYZ) and MLPs (AMLP). Non-cyclical groups are more insulated from economic fluctuations and often hold up better during periods of economic uncertainty.

Third takeaway: Equity ETFs from cyclical groups show the most pronounced downtrends. The example below is sorted by percent above 200-day SMA. The furthest below their 200-day SMAs are at the top and showing the most pronounced downtrends. Here we see ETFs related to Housing (ITB, XHB), Retail (XRT) and Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX). This is not the performance profile of a bull market. 

Need an organized and focused ETF ChartList that covers all bases? Our Core ETF ChartList has 72 names organized in a logical top-down manner. It includes 59 equity ETFs, 4 Treasury bond ETFs, 7 commodity ETFs and 2 crypto ETFs. Sign up for a trial at TrendInvestorPro and I will share this ChartList.

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The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 fell 10.5%, 13.8%, and 19.5%, respectively, from their recent all-time highs down to their March lows. Each index paused long enough and deep enough for a correction, with the Russell 2000 nearly reaching cyclical bear market territory (-20%).

At this point, there’s key price resistance on the S&P 500. Moving through it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re “in the clear.” However, failure to move through and then rolling back over increases the odds of another test of recent low price support. Check out the range I’m watching on the S&P 500:

Key price resistance, in my view, is at 5782 on the S&P 500. That was the gap support from early November and also the price support from mid-January. Now we’re trying to break above that resistance, while at the same time trying to hang onto now-rising 20-day EMA support.

As for support, the April and August lows in 2024 intersect beautifully with the March 2025 low. That’s something to keep an eye on if we begin to head lower again. The price support on the S&P 500 is now just above 5500, so a close beneath that level would be damaging – at least in the very near-term. I say that, because any new closing low would be accompanied by a higher PPO, a positive divergence. Many times, a reversing candle and a positive divergence will mark a significant bottom. So there’ll be plenty to watch over the next few days to few weeks.

I also want to show you how the S&P 500 is performing on a short-term chart vs. the NASDAQ 100, which is the more aggressive index:

It’s just a little thing, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 had been trading mostly in unison over the past week or two, but with this morning’s weakness, note that the NASDAQ 100 has moved back down to Monday’s opening gap higher, while the S&P 500 still remains well above it. Here’s one reason for it:

Since the Fed announcement one week ago, discretionary stocks (XLY) had reversed its downtrend vs. staples stocks (XLP). But check out today’s action! Maybe this is just short-term and we’ll see a reversal later, but it’s hard to be overly encouraged when staples goes up 1.14%, while discretionary drops 0.64%.

It’s a warning sign.

I know there are TONS of mixed signals out there and everyone wants to know whether this recovery is the REAL DEAL or if it was only temporary before the next shoe drops. Well, if you’re interested, I’ll be hosting a FREE event on Saturday.

Correction or Bear Market?

That’s the topic of our Saturday event, which will begin promptly at 10am ET. I will be providing multiple angles/charts/strategies and what each of them are telling us. If you’d like to join me on Saturday and would like more information, REGISTER NOW.

Even if you have a prior commitment on Saturday, we plan to record the event and send out the recording to all who register. So act now to attend and/or receive your copy of the recording.

Happy trading!

Tom

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shares how to use multi-timeframe analysis — Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts — to find the best stock market opportunities. See how Joe uses StockCharts tools to create confluence across timeframes and spot key levels. Joe then identifies strength in commodities, QQQ, and finishes up by reviewing symbol requests from viewers.

This video was originally published on March 26, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Gold at $3,100 and silver at $50? That might’ve sounded wild a year or two ago, but it’s now the upper trajectory some analysts are eyeing. With consumer confidence cratering to a 12-year low, inflation expectations rising, and central banks hoarding bullion like it’s the latest fashion, gold is holding firm above $3,000 per ounce and silver is knocking on $34.

There’s another thing to consider: the gold-to-silver ratio is still high, reaching 91:1 on Monday and 89.7 on Tuesday, hinting that silver may be massively undervalued. If the ratio snaps back to historical norms, silver could explode past $40, even $50, while gold edges toward $3,100 or higher.

FIGURE 1. CHART OF GOLD/SILVER RATIO. The historical average is at 65:1, well below the data on the chart. Any level above 87 signals a potential buying opportunity.

Note how the price of silver, namely its rallies highlighted in the shaded area below the chart, is responding to the ratio. I’m going to cover this in more detail below, as the ratio serves not only as guidance but also as an important component for an entry setup.

So, if analysts are targeting $3,100, where is gold now, and what setup might it present? Take a look at a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. Gold is pulling back, an ideal setup for those who are bullish on the yellow metal.

Gold has pulled back from its all-time high of $3,056, coinciding with an overbought reading in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Quadrant Lines give you a wide range of support levels for entry.

• The second quadrant, containing the previous swing high at $2,960, may see some bulls jumping in.
• Below that, the third and fourth quadrants coincide with the two previous swing lows near $2,890 and $2,840.

Staying within and bouncing from these quadrants could signal continued strength in the current swing. Below that level would indicate the end of the current uptrend, and whether the price reverses or falls into a range, you will likely find plenty of support at the two areas highlighted in magenta.

Next, take a look at a daily chart of silver.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. According to the gold/silver ratio, silver may be poised for another leg up.

Take a look at the green circles highlighting where the gold/silver ratio exceeded 89. These are relatively high levels, considering that the average ratio reading is between 65 to 75 depending on the historical average you’re measuring. As soon as the ratio falls below that level, silver tends to rally. You see this twice in January, plus once in February and March; now that the ratio has risen above this level once again, will silver rally in response? That’s the big question, and one you should keep focused on.

The $40–$50 target range that many analysts are eyeing is still a distance away. The RSI, holding above the 50 line, suggests there’s room for more upside before hitting overbought territory.

If you’re bullish on silver, hoping for it to reach the projected levels above $40 and toward $50, here’s what you should focus on:

• Silver would need to break above resistance levels at $34.25, the most recent swing high, and $34.75, which would see the grey metal enter its 12-year high territory, paving the way to $40 and above.
• If silver pulls back, it should stay above (ideally) $32.75 and $31.75.
• A close below $31.75, even if it finds support at the next swing low at $30.75, would signal weakness and likely invalidate the current uptrend.

What does this mean for investors using ETFs like SLV and GLD?

As a stock investor, you’re likely not seeking exposure to precious metals in the futures or spot market. The most commonly traded metals-backed options are the following ETFs:

• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which you could learn more about in the StockCharts’ Symbol Summary; and
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV), whose info is also available in the Symbol Summary.

The prices will differ as ETFs are structured differently. With that said, what do these price moves mean for the ETFs?

• If gold climbs to $3,100 an ounce, GLD—designed to track 1/10th of an ounce—could be trading in the $310 to $330 range.
• If silver makes a run at $50, SLV could surge right alongside it, potentially hitting $50 per share.

If you’re looking to ride the metals rally without holding physical bullion, these ETFs offer a direct and highly liquid way to gain exposure. And if silver’s historical catch-up to gold kicks in, SLV could potentially deliver the bigger upside.

At the Close

Gold and silver are both showing signs of strength, backed by macroeconomic pressure, historical ratios (at least for silver), and the overall technical context. Silver could be setting up for a catch-up move that might outperform gold in percentage terms. So, stay nimble, watch your levels, and remember that when silver moves, it often moves fast.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

After a blistering snapback rally over last the week, a number of the Magnificent 7 stocks are actively testing their 200-day moving averages.  Let’s look at how three of these leading growth names are setting up from a technical perspective, and see how this week could provide crucial clues to broader market conditions into April.

META Remains Above an Upward-Sloping 200-Day

While most of the Mag 7 names already broke below their 200-day moving averages, Meta Platforms (META) is one of the few that have remained above this key trend indicator.  We can see a very straightforward downtrend of lower lows and lower highs from the mid-February peak around $740 to last week’s low around $575.

With the recent bounce, META has now established clear support at the 200-day as well as the December 2024 swing low.  This “confluence of support” suggests that a break below $575 would confirm a new downtrend phase for this leading internet stock.  Only if we saw a break back above the 50-day moving average around $650 would we consider an alternative bullish scenario here.

Will AMZN Hold This Long-Term Trend Barometer?

While META is still holding its 200-day moving average, Amazon.com (AMZN) broke below its 200-day back in early March.  The recent bounce off $190 has pushed AMZN back above the 200-day this week, with the Monday and Friday lows sitting almost perfectly on this long-term trend indicator.

The most important question here is whether Amazon will be able to hold above its 200-day, but given the meager momentum readings, a failure here seems more likely.  Note how despite the recent uptrend move, the RSI has remained below the 50 level through mid-week.  This lack of upside momentum indicates a lack of willing buyers, and suggests a breakout here as an unlikely outcome.  

Similar to the chart of META, we’re watching for any move above the 50-day moving average, which would tell us to consider the recent upswing to have further upside potential.  

Failure Here Would Signal Renewed Weakness for TSLA

Now we come to one of the weaker charts out of the mega cap growth names, Tesla Inc. (TSLA).  Tesla lost over half its value from a peak around $480 in mid-December 2024 to its March 2025 low around $220.  This week’s pop higher has pushed TSLA right up to the 200-day moving average, but no further.

Tesla was one of the first Magnificent 7 stocks to set a peak, as many of these growth names continued to make higher highs into early 2025.  TSLA finally registered an oversold condition for the RSI in late February, before a bounce in mid-March which pushed the RSI back above the crucial 30 level.

When a stock fails to break above the 200-day moving average, as we see so far this week for Tesla, it means that there just isn’t enough buying power present to reverse the longer-term downtrend phase.  Until and unless TSLA can push above the 200-day, we’d much rather look for opportunities elsewhere.  

As legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones is quoted, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.”  Given the recent upswings for these key growth stocks, and their current tests of this long-term trend barometer, investors should be prepared for a failure at the 200-day and brace for what could come next for the Magnificent 7.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.