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Buried in a roughly 200-page quarterly filing from JPMorgan Chase last month were eight words that underscore how contentious the bank’s relationship with the government has become.

The lender disclosed that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau could punish JPMorgan for its role in Zelle, the giant peer-to-peer digital payments network. The bank is accused of failing to kick criminal accounts off its platform and failing to compensate some scam victims, according to people who declined to be identified speaking about an ongoing investigation.

In response, JPMorgan issued a thinly veiled threat: “The firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation.”

The prospect of a bank suing its regulator would’ve been unheard of in an earlier era, according to policy experts, mostly because corporations used to fear provoking their overseers. That was especially the case for the American banking industry, which needed hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts to survive after irresponsible lending and trading activities caused the 2008 financial crisis, those experts say.

But a combination of factors in the intervening years has created an environment where banks and their regulators have never been farther apart.

Trade groups say that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, banks became easy targets for populist attacks from Democrat-led regulatory agencies. Those on the side of regulators point out that banks and their lobbyists increasingly lean on courts in Republican-dominated districts to fend off reform and protect billions of dollars in fees at the expense of consumers.

“If you go back 15 or 20 years, the view was it’s not particularly smart to antagonize your regulator, that litigating all this stuff is just kicking the hornet’s nest,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.

“The disparity between how ambitious [President Joe] Biden’s regulators have been and how conservative the courts are, at least a subset of the courts, is historically wide,” Marcus said. “That’s created so many opportunities for successful industry litigation against regulatory proposals.”

Those forces collided this year, which started out as one of the most consequential for bank regulation since the post-2008 reforms that curbed Wall Street risk-taking, introduced annual stress tests and created the industry’s lead antagonist, the CFPB.

In the final months of the Biden administration, efforts from a half-dozen government agencies were meant to slash fees on credit card late payments, debit transactions and overdrafts. The industry’s biggest threat was the Basel Endgame, a sweeping proposal to force big banks to hold tens of billions of dollars more in capital for activities like trading and lending.

“The industry is facing an onslaught of regulatory and potential legislative change,” Marianne Lake, head of JPMorgan’s consumer bank, warned investors in May.

JPMorgan’s disclosure about the CFPB probe into Zelle comes after years of grilling by Democrat lawmakers over financial crimes on the platform. Zelle was launched in 2017 by a bank-owned firm called Early Warning Services in response to the threat from peer-to-peer networks including PayPal.

The vast majority of Zelle activity is uneventful; of the $806 billion that flowed across the network last year, only $166 million in transactions was disputed as fraud by customers of JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, the three biggest players on the platform.

But the three banks collectively reimbursed just 38% of those claims, according to a July Senate report that looked at disputed unauthorized transactions.

Banks are typically on the hook to reimburse fraudulent Zelle payments that the customer didn’t give permission for, but usually don’t refund losses if the customer is duped into authorizing the payment by a scammer, according to the Electronic Fund Transfer Act.

A JPMorgan payments executive told lawmakers in July that the bank actually reimburses 100% of unauthorized transactions; the discrepancy in the Senate report’s findings is because bank personnel often determine that customers have authorized the transactions.

Amid the scrutiny, the bank began warning Zelle users on the Chase app to “Stay safe from scams” and added disclosures that customers won’t likely be refunded for bogus transactions.

JPMorgan declined to comment for this article.

The company, which has grown to become the largest and most profitable American bank in history under CEO Jamie Dimon, is at the fore of several other skirmishes with regulators.

Thanks to his reputation guiding JPMorgan through the 2008 crisis and last year’s regional banking upheaval, Dimon may be one of few CEOs with the standing to openly criticize regulators. That was highlighted this year when Dimon led a campaign, both public and behind closed doors, to weaken the Basel proposal.

In May, at JPMorgan’s investor day, Dimon’s deputies made the case that Basel and other regulations would end up harming consumers instead of protecting them.

The cumulative effect of pending regulation would boost the cost of mortgages by at least $500 a year and credit card rates by 2%; it would also force banks to charge two-thirds of consumers for checking accounts, according to JPMorgan.

The message: banks won’t just eat the extra costs from regulation, but instead pass them on to consumers.

While all of these battles are ongoing, the financial industry has racked up several victories so far.

Some contend the threat of litigation helped convince the Federal Reserve to offer a new Basel Endgame proposal this month that roughly cuts in half the extra capital that the largest institutions would be forced to hold, among other industry-friendly changes.

It’s not even clear if the watered-down version of the proposal, a long-in-the-making response to the 2008 crisis, will ever be implemented because it won’t be finalized until well after U.S. elections.

If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the rules might be further weakened or killed outright, and even under a Kamala Harris administration, the industry could fight the regulation in court.

That’s been banks’ approach to the CFPB credit card rule, which aimed to cap late fees at $8 per incident and was set to go into effect in May.

A last-ditch effort from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and bank trade groups successfully delayed its implementation when Judge Mark Pittman of the Northern District of Texas sided with the industry, granting a freeze of the rule.

A key playbook for banks has been to file cases in conservative jurisdictions where they are likely to prevail, according to Lori Yue, a Columbia Business School associate professor who has studied the interplay between corporations and the judicial system.

The Northern District of Texas feeds into the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which is “well-known for its friendliness to industry lawsuits against regulators,” Yue said.

“Venue-shopping like this has become well-established corporate strategy,” Yue said. “The financial industry has been particularly active this year in suing regulators.”

Since 2017, nearly two-thirds of the lawsuits filed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce challenging federal regulations have been in courts under the 5th Circuit, according to an analysis by Accountable US.

Industries dominated by a few large players — from banks to airlines, pharmaceutical companies and energy firms — tend to have well-funded trade organizations that are more likely to resist regulators, Yue added.

The polarized environment, where weakened federal agencies are undermined by conservative courts, ultimately preserves the advantages of the largest corporations, according to Brian Graham, co-founder of bank consulting firm Klaros.

“It’s really bad in the long run, because it locks in place whatever the regulations have been, while the reality is that the world is changing,” Graham said. “It’s what happens when you can’t adopt new regulations because you’re terrified that you’ll get sued.”

— With data visualizations by CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump criticized Vice President Kamala Harris’s mental capacity Saturday, falsely claiming she was born “mentally impaired” and comparing her actions to that of a “a mentally disabled person.” The remarks prompted criticism from advocates for people with disabilities.

Disparaging Harris’s actions on border security as vice president, Trump told the crowd in Prairie du Chien, Wis., “Kamala is mentally impaired. If a Republican did what she did, that Republican would be impeached and removed from office, and rightfully so, for high crimes and misdemeanors.”

He later suggested Harris “was born that way”

“And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country,” he said, elaborating on a claim backed by no evidence. He called Harris “a very dumb person,” and repeatedly mispronounced her first name, an action some supporters see as demeaning and racist.

The comments, which were part of what Trump acknowledged was “a dark speech,” drew swift criticism. Maria Town, CEO and president of the American Association of People with Disabilities, said in a statement to The Washington Post that Trump’s comments “say far more about him and his inaccurate, hateful biases against disabled people than it does about Vice President Harris, or any person with a disability.”

“Trump holds the ableist, false belief that if a person has a disability, they are less human and less worthy of dignity,” she added. “These perceptions are incorrect, and are harmful to people with disabilities.”

The speech marked the latest escalation in personal attacks by Trump against Harris. The Republican has baselessly questioned her racial identity and amplified a vulgar joke about her performing a sex act.

The former president has a history of mocking people with disabilities. And he has repeatedly questioned the intelligence of Black women, such as Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and several journalists, and referred to one of his former staffers, Omarosa Manigault Newman, as a dog.

On the campaign trail in 2015, Trump mocked a reporter with a physical disability which limits the functioning of his joints.

More recently, the former president has repeatedly taunted President Joe Biden for his stutter on the campaign trail. And earlier this year, he discussed the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for his vote against a Republican effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. “John McCain for some reason couldn’t get his arm up that day,” Trump said, doing an impression of McCain by giving a low thumbs down. The move was seen by critics as Trump mocking McCain’s disability — an injury sustained while a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

The Atlantic reported in 2023 that Gen. Mark A. Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had arranged for a severely wounded Army captain to sing at his welcome ceremony. Trump was on camera going in to give the captain, Luis Avila, a hug. But after Avila’s performance, Trump reportedly walked over to congratulate Milley and said to him, “‘Why do you bring people like that here? No one wants to see that, the wounded.’” Never let Avila appear in public again, Trump told Milley.

Trump did not mention the devastation of Hurricane Helene during his speech. He focused much of his remarks on immigration and border security, an area where polls shows he has a political advantage and where he has regularly misrepresented Harris’s record.

Trump held his event in a small town where the former president and Republicans have seized on a recent case where a Venezuelan immigrant with known gang ties was accused of assaulting a woman and her daughter. The appearance came one day after Harris went on a border-security-focused trip to Arizona, where she was on the ground for a tour of a portion of the U.S.-Mexico border fence and outlined how she would be strict on border security if elected.

Immigration has long been a vulnerability for Democrats as Biden faced an unprecedented number of migrants crossing the border from early on in his administration. In June, Biden rolled out a sweeping asylum crackdown that Harris has backed and Republicans have criticized as coming too late in his presidency.

On Saturday, herenewed his argument that migrants crossing the border are taking away jobs from Hispanics and Black Americans, repeating his frequent effort this campaign cycle to explicitly pit minority groups against migrants who have arrived in recent years when he speaks about illegal immigration.

“You’re gonna lose your culture. You’re gonna lose your country. You’re gonna have crime, the likes of which nobody has ever seen before. Now, I’m speaking from common sense,” Trump said.

“Donald Trump is finally telling the truth to voters: He’s got nothing ‘inspiring’ to offer the American people, just darkness,” Sarafina Chitika, a Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson, said in a statement responding to Trump’s speech.

The Trump campaign has recently focused heavily on Wisconsin, a battleground state that Biden won by roughly 20,000 votes in 2020. In 2016, Trump won it by about 22,000 votes.

Trump on Tuesday will host two rallies in Wisconsin ahead of the vice-presidential debate. His team hosted a bus tour through Wisconsin this past week, which included various Republican surrogates, including former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

PHOENIX — Arizona’s Democratic leaders knew they had no good options when they jumped on a phone call this month. They had just learned tens of thousands of residents had been registered to vote for decades, even though there was no record they had provided proof of citizenship — a requirement under state law.

Their predicament was “an urgent, a dire situation,” Gov. Katie Hobbs said, according to audio of the call obtained by The Washington Post. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes said critics would “beat us up no matter what the hell we do.” Attorney General Kris Mayes worried they would be accused of rigging the 2024 election in a crucial state.

Changing the voting status of these Arizonans risked disenfranchising legitimate voters six weeks before the election. Letting them vote as they had in the past could violate the law. Even though the problem predated these officials by 20 years, it was on them to fix. And though it affected only state and local races, not the presidential or Senate elections, they knew after four years of attacks on the state’s election systems that no matter what they did, critics would have a ready-made issue to seize on if they didn’t like the outcome in November.

“When this goes public, it is going to have all of the conspiracy theorists in the globe — in the world — coming back to re-litigate the past three elections, at least in Arizona,” Hobbs said. “And it’s going to validate all of their theories about illegal voting in our elections, even though we all know that’s not true.”

During the 40-minute call on Sept. 10, the three bluntly took stock of the scope of the problem. They believed it affected about 148,000 voters, but later lowered the estimate to about 98,000. They knew the voting rights of Republicans, Democrats and independents were affected and they saw how the issue could erode confidence in state elections. The voters skewed Republican, and nearly all of them appeared to be citizens, but the group recognized the situation was politically explosive given that Republicans across the nation were already falsely claiming that massive numbers of noncitizens illegally vote for Democrats.

The governor suggested that these voters should be given ballots containing only federal races because of a state law that bars voters from casting ballots in state and local races if they have not provided proof of citizenship. But Fontes and Mayes argued that the state could not disenfranchise voters in any race so close to the election. They said requiring all of these voters to provide U.S. birth certificates or other documents in the coming weeks would create a logistical crisis for voters and election officials who were already stretched thin.

“Think about all of the 82-year-olds in wheelchairs who are not going to be able to make it to the polls and sure as hell aren’t going to, like, be able to find their f—ing driver’s licenses or birth certificates in time,” said Mayes, the attorney general. Arizonans this fall will vote on a state constitutional amendment to ensure access to abortion and decide whether Republicans hang on to their narrow control of the state legislature. Mayes said the group would be accused of disenfranchising Republicans to gain an advantage in those contests. “We can’t do that,” she said.

Fontes, who led most of the conversation, summed up their conundrum: “They’re going to beat us up no matter what the hell we do, no matter what the hell we say.”

A spokesperson for Fontes on Saturday emphasized that voting by noncitizens is “vanishingly rare,” despite claims from interest groups and figures aligned with former president Donald Trump. Mayes declined to comment. And the governor’s spokesperson, Christian Slater, responded with a statement: “From the beginning of the call, Governor Hobbs knew no matter the path forward it was critical to get legal certainty for any action taken by the Secretary of State. She’s glad that approach has paid dividends and instilled bipartisan confidence in Arizona’s free, fair, and secure elections.”

The candid and sometimes tense conversation provides a rare look at the precarious situation that officials in battleground states often find themselves in. They don’t want to restrict access to eligible voters, but they also want to make sure to follow the rules to avoid accusations of fraud. Their ordinary duties — such as making sure that millions of voters are properly registered, sending out mail ballots on time and overseeing voting — are under intense scrutiny, and mistakes can quickly turn into rampant false claims.

The Democratic trio has firsthand experience with the mechanics of elections in the state — and the wrath of those who don’t like the outcomes. When Trump narrowly lost the 2020 presidential race in Arizona, he and his supporters questioned every aspect of the voting process and tried to pressure officials to change the results. Trump blamed his narrow defeat in the state in part on false assertions that thousands of undocumented immigrants had voted in the election. He and his allies never produced evidence of their claims.

At the time, Hobbs was the secretary of state and faced death threats as she defended the legitimacy of the outcome. Fontes was the recorder for the state’s most populous county of Maricopa and, like Hobbs, fought misinformation as he and his staff faced harassment and protests. Several top Trump allies, including his lawyer and chief of staff, have been charged for their alleged actions in the state after the election, a prosecution led by Mayes.

All three were elected during the 2022 midterms after campaigning on the pledge to protect democracy and beating out Trump-backed Republicans who had made rafts of false claims about elections in the state and the people who run them. Hobbs’s opponent, former television anchor Kari Lake, continues to challenge her loss in court, even as she now runs for Senate. Mayes won her race by 280 votes, leading to unproven accusations by her GOP opponent that the outcome was unfair.

Their call this month brought them together for the first time since they each took office in January 2023, according to staff for two of the officials. During the conversation, which included staff, they weighed options and had different ideas on how to try to limit the damage to the public’s confidence in the election systems.

Fontes kicked off the call by explaining an obscure problem that had gone unaddressed for 20 years. In 2004, Arizona passed a law requiring voters to provide proof of citizenship to vote. After nearly a decade of litigation, the Supreme Court in 2013 ruled a federal law prevented the state from requiring proof of citizenship to vote for president and other federal offices.

To comply, the state adopted a unique, dual-registration system. Those who provide citizenship documents receive full ballots that include local, state and federal races. Those who do not receive ballots with only races for federal offices.

This month, Maricopa County officials discovered a longtime legal resident who is not a citizen had been improperly shown in electronic systems as having provided citizenship documents. He had not voted, but his appearance on the voter rolls sent election officials scrambling for answers. Fontes’s office found tens of thousands of others had been marked as eligible to receive full ballots even though there was no record of them having provided citizenship documents.

Now the three Democrats discussed what to do. State law didn’t allow the state to provide these voters with full ballots but federal law bars states from making wholesale changes to their voter registration lists fewer than 90 days before an election, Fontes said on the call.

Hobbs noted “conspiracy theorists” could run wild with the situation and said they needed to be “as proactive as possible to look like we are taking every single action possible to shore up the confidence in our voting system.”

“If I was in your shoes, secretary, I would take those 148,000 voters and move them to fed-only and do everything I could to provide the resources for the counties to deal with that additional burden and to ensure the confidence in the system,” said Hobbs. “I’m sure that there’s a very small percentage of those voters that are not actually eligible.”

Mayes rebuffed that idea, noting the list included more Republicans than Democrats.

“If we do what you’re talking about, we’re talking about disenfranchising probably tens of thousands of Republican voters,” Mayes said, emphasizing the political heat they would take for such a move.

Fontes sided with Mayes, saying, “I have no intention of notifying 148,000 voters at this stage of the game that they have to scramble around when the state of Arizona has been providing them full ballots all this time.”

He said he could easily explain his stance. Not allowing this group of voters to automatically vote in all races could help Democrats, he noted, but “we’re doing the opposite because that’s a pro-voter move, and it’s the right thing to do.”

Later on the call, Hobbs flinched at discussing how many Republicans and Democrats were on the list. “I just think that cannot be part of the conversation because then we’re politicizing it,” she said.

Fontes said it would be “an absolute s— show at the counties if we tell them they need to go chase down 150,000” voters to verify citizenship given the many demands on their offices. “I loathe to shove this down their throats at this stage of the game,” he said.

Mayes said it would be unfair — and possibly illegal — if they unilaterally determined that the residents could not vote in state races and a ballot measure to ensure access to abortion.

“Can you imagine telling 67,000 Republicans they can’t vote on the abortion initiative,” Mayes asked, her tone incredulous. “I mean, Katie, I understand your point about not politicizing this, but the reality is that if we let this happen, all of these elections are challengeable. They’re going to be calling for a new election.”

Responded Hobbs: “They’re going to be calling for new 2020 and ’22 elections as well.”

Fontes reiterated that he wanted voters to receive full ballots, and Hobbs shifted her stance to back him

“I hear you,” the governor said. “I agree with you. It’s your position to do that, not mine, and I’m going to support your call.”

But, she noted, they would face a wave of criticism. “It’s still going to create just this s— storm of ‘told you so, all these illegals are voting,’ from the other side,” said the governor, referring to Republicans.

Fontes argued that no matter what they say or do, Republicans are “going to beat us up.”

Hobbs had suggested that the issue would be best solved with a court decision. “That would provide that cover, that legal cover,” the governor said. She suggested that the litigation should come “from someone who’s friendly to us,” who would align with their desire to keep the solution nonpartisan.

That notion within days evolved into what Fontes called a “friendly lawsuit” that Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer (R) brought against the secretary of state. Richer, like the three Democrats, has faced years of threats and harassment for doing his job. He lost his July primary election to another Republican and had shown a willingness to take bold political stands.

Fontes and Richer asked the state Supreme Court to quickly give them an answer. Around the same time, Hobbs announced the computer issues at the division of motor vehicles that caused the problem had been quickly fixed. Soon after, the court issued a ruling that said the voters’ eligibility to cast full ballots should remain in place. Richer declined to comment Saturday.

In the litigation, the Democratic leaders found allies among Republicans who recognized that their party had the most to lose because so many of their voters were on the list. The state Republican Party sided with Fontes in asking the state’s high court to keep intact the voters’ ability to cast full ballots.

But others pounced on the problem, just as Fontes and the others predicted. Laura Loomer, a far-right backer of Trump, on social media alleged the state “may have just illegally registered 100,000 illegal aliens to vote!”

The post ricocheted around social media, setting off the kind of viral messaging that Hobbs, Fontes and Mayes had feared.

Marley reported from Madison, Wis.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The cat owners and cat lovers at Mount Purrnon Cat Cafe and Wine Bar in Northern Virginia think vice-presidential candidate JD Vance is a purrfect idiot.

“Beyond ridiculous,” said Beth Kanupp, 41, who was visiting from Orlando with her fiancé.

“I kind of just rolled my eyes,” said Marina Loftus, 20, a D.C.-based student, “because I feel like diminishing a woman’s value because she doesn’t have children or because she chooses to have a pet is pretty dumb.”

As Celeste Robertson, 23, who lives in D.C. and works in sustainable trade policy, put it: “My first reaction was like, ‘Wow you’re a loser.’ ”

The women were referring to recently surfaced 2021 comments by Vance — the Republican senator from Ohio and Donald Trump’s No. 2 — that the country was being run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made,” as well as his criticism, also in 2021, of teachers who were not biological parents. The comments set off a wave of criticism and mockery from critics, including some Republicans.

Recent interviews with 18 visitors and employees at Mount Purrnon — a two-story cat cafe just 10 minutes from Vance’s Del Ray neighborhood in Alexandria — revealed voters whose reaction to Vance’s comments ranged anywhere from anger to disbelief to mocking amusement.

The overall sentiment of the group — which skewed Democratic and cat-owning, and included both men and women, both people with kids and without — leaned more toward dismissiveness than outrage. The cafe is located in Alexandria, a liberal enclave in Northern Virginia that in 2020 overwhelmingly supported President Joe Biden — 80 percent compared with the 18 percent who voted for Trump.

“I immediately got a clench in my stomach,” Kanupp recalled, explaining that her next thought was that Vance was “burying himself” with voters, “because there’s so many people in this country who don’t represent the stereotypical nuclear family. It was so out of touch.”

“I’m not a lady, but it offended me,” chimed in her fiancé, Steven Warmath, a 49-year-old airline pilot.

In fact, Kanupp and Warmath are one such non-stereotypical, blended family. They are both divorced, and preparing to enter their new union with three sons, including a transgender one, between them.

Debby Lewis, 46, has four cats and three kids — two daughters and one transgender son — and said while she is leaning toward voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, she is also researching third-party candidates. But she called Vance’s comments “ludicrous,” adding: “This man has no brain cells.”

“I don’t agree with anything, any turn of mind, that goes in the direction of saying women should be barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, and that’s pretty much what I heard when he was talking about childless cat ladies,” Lewis said.

She and her son, she said, have lots of political discussions, and her son is especially focused on the idea that “when they come for one, they’re going to come for all. So right now he’s coming at single women, childless women. … What do you think is next?”

The Vance campaign declined to comment for this story.

Gabriel Bruner, a 28-year-old general maintenance technician on vacation with his mom, said Vance was deploying a “ridiculous” stereotype.

“He kind of used it from a really outdated, patriarchal kind of sense of just a nuclear family, of there has to be a stay-at-home mom and a businessman dad — but it’s not even viable anymore in this economy,” said Bruner, who lives in Merritt Island, Fla., with his partner and seven cats.

In general, Vance has struggled to appeal to voters, especial female ones. A CNN poll released last week found that 29 percent of women had a favorable opinion of him, with 43 percent having an unfavorable view. He did not fare much better with men: 33 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 41 percent said their opinion was unfavorable.

Robertson, who has a cat and no kids — the 23-year-old said she has never wanted kids — described Vance as “whiny” and said his comments sounded like he was projecting.

“I’m like, Why are you so worried about that? Or why are you so obsessed with people who don’t want kids, or don’t have kids, or have cats?” she said. “It’s just like, there are bigger issues … Oh, you want to address the birth rate? That’s not how you do it.”

And Genelle Uhrig, 41, an ecologist from Zanesville, Ohio said she knew Vance meant his comments as an insult, but she chose not to take them that way.

“I’m proud to be a crazy cat lady,” said Uhrig, who has three cats, no kids and was in town with a friend for a Weezer show. “To me, it’s completely fine.”

She added Vance — her home state senator — is likely to learn that “you don’t mess with cat people,” but also explained why she found the comments offensive.

“But this country is not meant for just reproductive women, and we are all American citizens,” Uhrig said. “And if we don’t want to have children, we don’t have to have children. If we want to have a million cats, we can have a million cats.”

Like Uhrig, who has proudly claimed the “childless cat lady” pejorative, so, too, has Mount Purrnon. The cafe’s co-owners, Adam Patterson, 41, and his partner, Kristin Cowan, 36, said that about a week after Vance’s comments first resurfaced, they decided to make “childless cat lady” T-shirts, which sell for $29.99 and go toward the cat rescue part of their operation.

The shirts were a hit. They sold 100 via preorder before they even arrived, and Patterson estimated they have sold more of the “childless cat lady” shirts than all their other shirts combined over the past four years.

Cowan said the shirts were not intended as a political statement. “This is to support the cats, and also to empower childless cat ladies and to show that even if you don’t have kids, you’re worth it,” she said.

Since Vance lives in Alexandria, she added: “If he does want to come discuss childless cat ladies, we’d welcome it.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

As former congresswoman Liz Cheney repeatedly and publicly spoke out over the last year about the dangers of a potential return to the White House by former president Donald Trump, Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the then-Biden campaign, quietly reached out to her.

Over multiple phone calls, she conveyed to Cheney, a Wyoming Republican and staunch conservative, how much the Biden campaign appreciated her comments and tried to gauge whether she would be open to publicly supporting the Democratic nominee. Then Vice President Kamala Harris rose to the top of the ticket and the campaign leadership felt an endorsement was within reach, so Harris called Cheney herself.

That months-long outreach culminated in Cheney’s endorsement of Harris earlier this month, when the former congresswoman told an audience at Duke University that she was backing the vice president, despite being a conservative, “because of the danger that Donald Trump poses.” Cheney wanted to make the endorsement on her own terms, and shortly after, O’Malley Dillon put out a statement on behalf of the campaign thanking her.

And there was a bonus for the Harris team: Two days later, Cheney announced that her father, former vice president Dick Cheney, would also be voting for Harris.

Since Donald Trump first won the Republican nomination in 2016, scores of lifelong Republicans have criticized Trump, many choosing to vote for Democrats and others leaving the GOP altogether. As Trump makes his third run for the White House, the Harris campaign has ramped up its outreach to Republicans — from the rank and file to some of the party’s most recognizable figures — in an effort to win votes and bolster its message that Trump represents a unique danger to American democracy.

As polls show Harris and Trump remain in a tight race, the Harris campaign is hoping endorsements from former Republican luminaries will help win over Republican-leaning and independent voters who are deeply opposed to Trump but are struggling with the idea of voting for a Democrat in general or Harris specifically.

Candidates often covet endorsements from the opposing party, as it allows them to expand their appeal to a wider audience. But in the Trump era, many high-profile Republicans are particularly opposed to their nominee, and the Harris campaign hopes their approval could give make it more palatable for ordinary Republicans to break ranks.

Still, given Trump’s dominance of the GOP, it is not clear whether there are enough wavering Republicans to affect the race — and Trump, in private fundraisers, has dismissed the notion that Republican voters would support Harris, telling donors he is not worried about it.

“Nobody cares what these disgruntled and deranged people have to say,” Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s campaign, said in a statement. “President Trump is overwhelmingly supported by the majority of Republicans and polling better than he ever did in 2016 and 2020. That’s because rational Americans who aren’t blinded by Trump derangement syndrome realize our country was much better off under his leadership.”

But Harris’s aides believe that it is worth a methodical effort to court Republicans in a race that could turn on a few thousands votes in key states.

O’Malley Dillon has worked to cultivate relationships with Republicans like former congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), a vocal Trump critic who has endorsed Harris. The Harris campaign has hired Austin Weatherford, Kinzinger’s former chief of staff, as its national director for Republican engagement, tasked with coordinating outreach and engagement with conservatives.

“The Harris-Walz campaign has been putting Republicans front and center in our GOP outreach to explain, in their own words, why they are putting country first and supporting Vice President Harris,” Weatherford said in a statement. “Those Republican voices are critical to create a permission structure that allows conservative-leaning voters to feel more comfortable voting for a Democrat for president.”

Maria Comella, a top aide to former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, recently signed a contract to work on the Harris campaign, helping make its case to Republican voters as well as moderate and independent women, according to two people familiar with the arrangement. Comella, who has worked for a number of Republican officials, also served a stint as chief of staff to then-New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat.

The behind-the-scenes work has begun to show some results beyond the Cheneys. Alberto Gonzales, who served as attorney general in the administration of George W. Bush, wrote in Politico on Sept. 12 that he is voting for Harris. On Sept. 18, more than 100 former national security officials from Republican administrations signed a letter endorsing Harris and declaring Trump “unfit to serve.”

The Harris campaign has also initiated outreach to Christie, who ran against Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, although he is not expected to endorse Harris, according to a person who has talked with him speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) is another top target of the Harris campaign, but the senator has not engaged with the campaign and has resisted subtle pressure from Republican officials associated with Harris’s operation who want him to officially back her.

People familiar with Romney’s thinking say he has expressed concern that public embrace of Harris would imperil his ability to influence the direction of a post-Trump Republican Party. Romney, who has frequently criticized Trump, has also expressed concerns about endangering the safety of his family if Trump is elected again, a fear also voiced by others who have spoken out against the former president.

The work has expanded outside the Harris campaign apparatus. Even before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, prominent anti-Trump Republicans — including Sarah Longwell, Bill Kristol and Tim Miller of the Bulwark, a center-right online publication that opposes Trump — sent the Democratic campaign the names of prominent Republicans who they thought could be persuaded to endorse the Democrat.

Miller, a former Republican strategist, described his role as “outside cajoler,” as he has badgered the Harris campaign to ratchet up its efforts to pitch prominent Republicans on publicly supporting the vice president. He said that when he recently bumped into Mitch Landrieu, a co-chair of Harris’s campaign, at the Kingpin, a bar in New Orleans, where they both live, he cornered him and made his case.

“Any Democrat who will talk to me, I will tell them, ‘Please reach out and nudge, cajole, these prominent Republicans,’” Miller said.

Miller said his dream endorsements would be former high-ranking Trump administration officials who have already publicly criticized the former president, including John F. Kelly, Trump’s former chief of staff, and Jim Mattis, his secretary of defense. Given their experience working directly for Trump, Miller said, they have the greatest responsibility to warn others and their words would have the greatest impact.

Some of the endorsements have been organic, without prompting from the Harris campaign.

Jimmy McCain, the son of former senator John McCain (R-Ariz.), reached out to Harris campaign contacts in Arizona, saying he was disturbed by an incident in August at Arlington National Cemetery, when Trump campaign workers confronted an employee who was trying to enforce federal regulations barring partisan political activity at the cemetery.

McCain, who has served nearly two decades in the military, told CNN the Trump campaign’s behavior was a “violation” and “just blows me away.” After he connected with the Harris campaign, McCain spoke with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’s running mate, and then went public with his endorsement.

Cheney has said her endorsement of Harris stems from a desire to do everything possible to defeat Trump. It is not enough, she has said, to write in another Republican who may be more palatable but is not on the ballot.

“I think this is going to be an incredibly — potentially incredibly — close race,” Cheney said last week at the Cap Times Ideas Fest in Madison, Wis. “I hope it’s not, but it could be. And so it really, really matters if you really believe — as I do — that Donald Trump is too dangerous to ever again be near the Oval Office, then I think it’s incumbent upon us to go the extra step and actually cast a vote for Vice President Harris.”

At the Democratic National Convention last month, the Harris campaign featured a number of Republicans on the main stage, including Kinzinger; Stephanie Grisham, a former press secretary in the Trump White House and top aide to first lady Melania Trump; and Olivia Troye, a former national security aide for Trump.

Troye said in an interview that when prominent conservatives endorse Harris, it creates a “permission structure” for rank-and-file Republicans to join the effort.

“People take a pause and look and say, ‘What is happening here, with all these different leaders and former administration people across all Republican administrations coming forward, and their voices being added to the chorus of why we will not support Trump?’” she said. “I think that’s helping at the ground level because what we’ve been trying to do is have these people lean on each other, because MAGA is a very hateful bullying movement, and so I think there is power in almost like safety in numbers.”

Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Jacqueline Alemany contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to flesh out her policy agenda, addressing in recent days both economics and border security, two areas where voters have negative views about the work of her and President Joe Biden’s administration. The contrasts with former president Donald Trump are great, though that might not be what decides the election.

Trump’s policies are shaped by a dark view of the world, one that says America is a failing country that has been taken advantage of by other nations. His core economic proposal would impose significant tariffs — 10 percent to 20 percent — on foreign goods. Trump says other countries would pay the cost and that it would bring trillions to the federal treasury.

Many economists say that’s not how this works, that those tariffs would be passed along to American consumers through higher prices and also would reduce gross domestic product. Trump also has made unrealistic predictions that if he is elected, Americans would quickly see higher personal incomes and the rapid elimination of federal deficits.

Harris has packaged her economic agenda under the theme of an “opportunity economy,” not “Bidenomics,” which the president struggled to sell to voters. It includes both specific proposals — among them an enhanced child tax credit, assistance for first-time home buyers and new small businesses, and higher taxes on corporations — as well as some vague promises like cracking down on companies that engage in price gouging. She wants voters to know she recognizes their concerns about high prices and that she identifies closely with middle-class families.

On immigration, the two candidates are perhaps even further apart. Harris traveled to the U.S.-Mexico border in the battleground state of Arizona on Friday to address the issue, a significant vulnerability for her. Border crossings have been reduced this year, but because Biden was slow to act to stem the flow of migrants, her approach to this issue remains largely defensive. Voters see Trump as better equipped to deal with it. Her goal is to persuade voters she would take seriously the need to control illegal immigration.

Harris’s immigration policies include support for a bipartisan bill designed to toughen border security that Trump deep-sixed when it came up in the Senate (legislation that is not likely to be raised in the next Congress). On Friday, she pledged tougher restrictions and enforcement than exist under Biden. Her critics will ask why she didn’t make this happen earlier in the administration. Also, in perhaps the most direct contrast to Trump, she continues to favor legislation that ultimately would include a path to legal status for the millions of undocumented immigrants now in the country.

Trump has stayed on offense on immigration, which is his go-to topic, not to offer solutions so much as simply to stir up his base. Though there is agreement across the political spectrum that the current immigration system needs fixing, Trump has resorted to exaggeration and lies to heighten public alarm and shape public perceptions largely for political gains.

He has said falsely that migrants are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, a claim repeatedly debunked by local officials. He has said falsely that foreign governments have emptied out prisons and asylums and sent those people to the United States. He and other Republicans say that there is a serious problem in this country of voting by undocumented immigrants, for which there is no proof.

The first two planks of the 2024 Republican platform say that Trump would “seal the border and stop the migrant invasion” and “carry out the largest deportation in American history.” Even when he was president, the border was not sealed, and analysts see the call to deport the millions of undocumented immigrants now in the country as impractical, punitive and possibly illegal, as he has said he would override the law prohibiting the use of the military against civilians.

Comparing the two candidates on these issues comes with caveats. Trump’s campaign is not, fundamentally, about policies. It is about grievance, retribution and division — and about him and his aspiration to be a strongman exercising unfettered power. He has offered white papers on many issues, but he’s run away from the most comprehensive policy blueprint available for a second Trump term, which is the extremely conservative Project 2025. Trump can’t say what he thinks about some important issues and has never been a student of policy.

In his debate with Harris earlier this month, he was asked whether he has a health-care plan to replace the Affordable Care Act. He said he had “concepts” and that a plan would be forthcoming “in the not-too-distant future.” He has been promising that for most of the past eight years without ever producing it — just as he promised “infrastructure week” that never materialized during his presidency.

A few weeks ago, he delivered what was billed as a major economic address. He could not have shown less interest in the substance. When he got a question from the audience about whether he had a specific policy to deal with the high cost of child care, he seemed flummoxed. He gave a meandering response, and his only proposed solution was a suggestion that he could take some of the money that he said would be generated by his tariffs and use it for child-care costs. That money likely would be as real as the money he said would come from Mexico to build his border wall but never materialized.

Throughout the campaign, voters have judged Trump to be more capable of handling the economy than either Biden or Harris. Recent polls indicate that Harris has cut into that advantage but there is more work to do, as Trump seeks to paint her as dangerously liberal and out of touch with the high prices of groceries and other goods.

In her speech last week in Pittsburgh, Harris described herself as a capitalist, a believer in free markets, a pragmatist and someone who is not tied to ideology. This is an effort to counter Trump’s claims that she is a doctrinaire California liberal whose policies would reflect that. She has not been closely associated with the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing, but as a candidate for president in the 2020 election, she drifted leftward, embracing various policies — an end to private health insurance, a ban on fracking — that she says she no longer supports.

As the 2024 Democratic nominee, her policies align with those of the administration in which she has served. In trying to carve out an identity separate from Biden’s and to play on the theme that she would turn the page on the past, Harris has taken some steps to differentiate herself. For instance, she would raise capital gains taxes, just not as Biden proposed.

Harris has issued an 82-page document about her economic plans that is available on her website. But in her small number of interviews with journalists, she has deflected questions about the details of her proposals, preferring broad strokes to a discussion of specifics and what-ifs.

She was asked by MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle last week about her plan to raise corporate taxes and what would happen if the next Congress resisted. How, then, would she pay for the proposals? Harris’s response: “We’re going to have to make sure that the biggest corporations and billionaires pay their fair share. That’s just it.”

Ruhle pressed Harris about the proposal to ban price gouging. “How do you go after price gouging without implementing price controls?” she asked. Harris responded without answering directly, saying, “So, just to be very frank, I am never going to apologize for going after companies and corporations that take advantage of the desperation of the American people… Yes, I’m going to go after them.”

Harris has been critical of the tax cuts that Trump enacted as president, which favored the wealthiest Americans. Those tax cuts are due to expire late next year. Ending the tax cuts for individuals would raise an estimated $4.6 trillion between 2025 and 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Trump has said he would extend those cuts. Harris has not been specific about what she would do, other than to say no one earning less than $400,000 would see their taxes increase.

Harris is under greater pressure to outline her positions, because she’s less well-known than Trump and voters want reassurance about what kind of president she would be. To the degree she can assuage concerns of voters still looking for answers, she will position herself to win. But in the end, the choice for most voters will not be side-by-side comparisons on the issues but rather assumptions of whether the country would be saved or endangered by another four years with Trump in the White House.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

On Friday mornings in our DP Diamonds subscriber-only trading room, the DecisionPoint Diamond Mine, I like to look for a “Sector to Watch” and an “Industry Group to Watch” within. These are for your watchlist and not necessarily ready for immediate investment. In the case of this week’s Sector and Industry Group to Watch, we will need to take our cue from Monday’s trading to know if this area of the market will thrive.

I picked Technology as the Sector to Watch. I could’ve easily picked Materials, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities, all of which are sailing higher. The big problem with those sectors is that the RSI is overbought on all of them, so price is overbought. Technology, on the other hand, has rising momentum and an RSI that is not overbought.

Let’s look “under the hood” at Technology. (FYI – We have under the hood charts for all of the sectors, indexes and select industry groups on our website available to subscribers of any of our subscriptions on the website). Technology is overcoming the previous top from August. As noted above, the RSI is not overbought and the PMO is rising above the zero line. I particularly liked the acceleration on the Silver Cross Index, which tells us how many stocks have a 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA. Participation of stocks above key moving averages is very healthy reading in the 80th percentile. Stochastics did top, but are firmly above 80, suggesting internal strength. We can also see outperformance against the SPY. All of this adds up to a likely advance higher.

The Industry Group to Watch is Semiconductors (SMH). We happen to have an under the hood chart for this group, so we’ll review it. Price has reached overhead resistance and, as of this writing, it is pulling back. However, the internals look very strong. The RSI is not overbought and the PMO is rising above the zero line, indicating new strength. The Silver Cross Index is above its signal line and is reading above our bullish 50% threshold. Participation is strong and, in the case of %Stocks > 50/200EMAs, there is room for improvement before getting too overbought. Stochastics have topped but, as with Technology, they are comfortably above 80, indicating internal strength.

Conclusion: Next week, we should put Technology and Semiconductors on our radar. They may not be ready for primetime right away, so we do need to watch what the market does on Monday. If it decides to decline, this area of the market will likely be hit. If it decides to inch higher, these will be the areas to pay attention to.


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As we near the end of what has been a fairly solid Q3 for the equity markets, we are left with the eternal question for investors: “What’s next?”

We now have the Fed’s first rate cut in the rearview mirror, with multiple rate cuts expected into early 2025. We also have a highly contested election season, a rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East, and earnings season, which is only a couple weeks away.

The beauty of technical analysis is that price action should compensate for investor expectations for all of the above. If investors are excited, nervous, euphoric, despondent, or anywhere in between, the interplay between buyers and sellers can tell us a great deal about investor sentiment. With that in mind, here are some of the individual stock charts I’ll be watching as we transition into the fourth quarter.

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)

As I reviewed hundreds of charts to eventually settle in on just ten to review, I was struck by the fact that five out of the ten are in the same sector: Communication Services. From Magnificent 7 names to old telecoms, there are plenty of improving charts in this sector.

While many stocks could be considered overextended after this week, Comcast is definitely not one of the them. This chart features a classic rotation from a distribution phase (lower highs and lower lows) through a consolidation phase (even highs and lows) and into a new accumulation phase (higher highs and higher lows).

This week, CMCSA finally pushed back above its 200-day moving average, as well as the previous peak from mid-July. If this stock can follow through above the $42 level, we could easily see a retest of the January 2024 peak around $46 and beyond.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

One of the key questions for October is whether the market will remain strong despite the normal seasonal weakness around this time of year. META may be the best chart to watch to determine whether our benchmarks will remain in a bullish phase.

Meta has tested resistance in the $520 to $540 range since first arriving at these levels in March, and, a couple weeks ago, that level was finally eclipsed. Any time a stock breaks above a well-established resistance level, I want to see it hold that breakout point on any subsequent pullbacks.

META ended the week in an overbought condition, with the RSI remaining above 70. This often suggests a pullback is imminent, particularly when the RSI dips back below this overbought level. Will Meta Platforms hold $520 as well as the 50-day moving average on a pullback? If so, then this bull market could see unusual strength in arguably the weakest of the 12 months from a seasonal perspective.

VFCorp (VFC)

Next is VFCorp, my first selection outside of the Communication Services sector. This producer of apparel and footwear brands, including Timberland and The North Face, has entered a new uptrend phase off a major low back in March.

While VFC has already gained about 80% off the March low, the bullish phase appears very much still in place here. We can see a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and the price is now trending higher above two upward-sloping moving averages. The RSI indicator tells us the momentum is strong but not excessive. I tend to think of charts like this as “innocent until proven guilty,” and, as a trend-follower, that means I follow the trend until the chart tells me to do otherwise!

Looking for the other seven charts to watch?  Check out the full video on my YouTube channel!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

That’s a great question right now as many folks still remain quite nervous. The Volatility Index ($VIX), for example, gained more than 10% today, despite a minimal decline in the S&P 500. It’s a signal that the stock market likely won’t handle bad news very well. Next week, we have the September nonfarm payrolls. And earnings season is set to kick off in just a couple weeks, when the banks begin reporting. Could we see an earnings warning or layoffs from a big name or two? We don’t know, but if we do see bad news, it’s quite possible we see another leg lower in October.

But could it crash?

Well, first we’d have to define “crash.” Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 has seen a drop of 9% or more in a calendar month just 17 times. That’s 1 monthly drop of 9% or more every 4 years or so. If you’re looking for the start of a 20% to 30% drop, or even more, I’d say the chance of that is extremely slim, probably negligible.

Let’s take a look at the 2 worst October declines in U.S. history. First, there was October 1929 – The Great Depression:

October 1929 began the largest decline in U.S. stock market history. The decline didn’t find a bottom until nearly 90% of the stock market’s value was lost.

The other October decline that gives the month its bad name was October 1987 crash. Remember Black Monday? If you weren’t investing back then, this is what the chart looked like:

The 1987 “crash” happened over the course of a few weeks, not a few years like in 1929. There have been other rough Octobers, but they simply haven’t been as catastrophic as the 1929 and 1987 versions. In fact, earlier I mentioned that we’ve seen calendar month declines of 9% or more 17 different times since 1950. October has played a role in many of these. Furthermore, there have been 14 bear market declines (losses of 20% or greater from all-time highs) since 1950 and October has played a very interesting role in those too.

So what might we expect in October 2024?

If you’re interested in stock market history, then EarningsBeats.com is the right place to get your information. It’s interesting that the “Go Away” month (May, according to the Wall Street “experts”) has never had one of those 9% or more calendar month losses. May also has never started a bear market, yet the bottom of one was found in May. You can’t trust the historical information that you get from the media, but I can promise you that the information that we provide at EarningsBeats.com is 100% factual and ZERO percent false or misleading. As a practicing CPA for two decades, I can analyze and report data.

Tomorrow morning, on Saturday, September 28th at 10:00am ET, I’ll be hosting a FREE event, “History of Market Bottoms.” I want all of you to understand history the way we do at EarningsBeats.com. This event does require registration. To get more information and to save your seat, REGISTER NOW! If you’re reading this article and it’s beyond Saturday 10:00am ET, no worries. Anyone who registers (even late) will receive a recording of the event. Finally, we’ve developed an ebook, “74 Years of Market Bottoms”, that will be sent to you immediately upon registration, so don’t delay!

I’ll see you Saturday morning!

Tom

There’s one trading day left for the month of September. Unless something drastic happens over the weekend, the stock market looks like it has bucked the September seasonality pattern of being the worst trading month for equities. That’s not to say seasonality doesn’t work; in the early part of the month, after all, there was a dramatic pullback. But the stock market has recovered and is now moving higher.

A handful of data this week stoked the stock market. The US economy continues to grow, the labor market appears to be moving toward a better supply/demand balance, the Federal Reserve made its first interest rate cut, and inflation is cooling. But the biggest news was the China stimulus decision. That was a surprise and sent Chinese stocks and ETFs soaring.

The August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) indicated that inflation is coming down and getting closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target. This isn’t a surprise, but it helped keep the optimistic sentiment going, at least into the first half of Friday’s trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) hit a record high, sold off in afternoon trading, and eked out a record close. The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) also sold off on Friday, closing in the red. Despite the selloff, the overall trend in equities is still very bullish.

An Analysis of the Broader Stock Market Indexes

Although the S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPEW) closed slightly higher (see chart below).

CHART 1. S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX.

$SPXEW is trading well above its 20-day simple moving average. Its relative strength index (RSI) is just below 70, which means it has a lot of upside room.

This could mean that investors are shifting away from large-cap tech stocks and into other areas. The rise in the Dow Jones Average this week indicates that perhaps investors are rotating into Industrials and Materials. Small and mid-cap stocks also closed higher on Friday.

China-related stocks continued their bullish move on Friday. The iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) is getting pretty close to a resistance level. If it breaks above it on strong momentum, it would be worth allocating a portion of your portfolio to the ETF.

Then, There Are Bonds

After the Fed cut interest rates, US Treasury yields rose and bond prices pulled back. The August high in the chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is one to watch. If TLT breaks above this level (green horizontal area), bond prices could rise.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF TLT.

On Friday, TLT reversed after Thursday’s doji candle. However, Friday’s candle was also a doji, which failed to break above its 21-day exponential moving average. One day’s action doesn’t make a trend, but, in light of future interest rate cuts, there may soon be a buying opportunity in TLT. If you are already in bonds, like I am, then you could add to your positions after a breakout. This is one chart I’ll be looking at.

Of course, this could change if next week’s data doesn’t support an upward move in bond prices. Next week, there will be a lot of employment data and several speeches from Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell.

The jobs data will show whether the labor market is tightening or loosening and could steer investor expectations about further interest rate cuts by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability the Fed will cut rates by another 50 basis points is 54.8%. If the labor data supports a 50 bps cut, that probability could rise higher.

Metals Keep On Shining

The price of gold pulled back on Friday after a series of “all-time high” closes. Central banks continue to purchase gold and add it to their global reserves. Gold and silver prices have rallied this year, and interest rate cuts by the Fed, plus China’s recent stimulus measures, keep sending prices higher. Copper is another commodity that has benefited from China’s stimulus news.

One commodity that wasn’t rallying like the metals was crude oil. Oil prices saw massive declines this week but turned around on Friday afternoon. Geopolitical tensions that surfaced may have been the reason for the price turnaround. The Energy sector, which has been the laggard of late, was the top-performing S&P sector on Friday (see Friday’s MarketCarpet). It occupies very little real estate on the MarketCarpet, but it’s the greenest of the sectors.

FRIDAY’S S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE.

While most of this week’s news was positive, we ended on a slightly uncertain note—the surfacing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) inched up slightly. China’s stock exchanges will be closed most of next week in honor of China National Day, so there may be sideways movement in Chinese-related stocks and ETFs. There’s still plenty of US data to focus on, so keep an eye and ear tuned to the market. More importantly, keep an eye on the rotation. The StockCharts MarketCarpets are a great starting point.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 0.62% for the week, at 5738.17, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.59% for the week at 42,313; Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.95% for the week at 18,119.59
  • $VIX up 4.48% for the week, closing at 16.87
  • Best performing sector for the week: Materials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Health Care
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Applovin Corp (APP); Carvana (CVNA); Vistra Energy Corp. (VST); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Fed Chair Powell speech; speeches from Bowman, Bostic, Cook, and other Fed officials
  • August JOLTS Job Openings
  • ADP Employment Report
  • Weekly Jobless Claims
  • September ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • September ISM Services PMI
  • September Non-Farm Payrolls
  • Nike (NKE) Earnings

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.