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If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
  • $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

  • March S&P Global PMI
  • February PCE
  • Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Investors have closely watched Nvidia’s week-long GPU Technology Conference (GTC) for news and updates from the dominant maker of chips that power artificial intelligence applications.

The event comes at a pivotal time for Nvidia shares. After two years of monster gains, the stock is down 15% over the past month and 22% below the January all-time high.

As part of the event, CEO Jensen Huang took questions from analysts on topics ranging from demand for its advanced Blackwell chips to the impact of Trump administration tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how Huang responded — and what analysts homed in on — during some of the most important questions:

Huang said he “underrepresented” demand in a slide that showed 3.6 million in estimated Blackwell shipments to the top four cloud service providers this year. While Huang acknowledged speculation regarding shrinking demand, he said the amount of computation needed for AI has “exploded” and that the four biggest cloud service clients remain “fully invested.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore noted that Huang’s commentary on Blackwell demand in data centers was the first-ever such disclosure.

“It was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to field questions related to Open AI related spending shifting from 1 of the 4 to another of the 4, or the pressure of ASICs, which come from these 4 customers,” Moore wrote to clients, referring to application-specific integrated circuits.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said the slide was “only scratching the surface” on demand. Beyond the four largest customers, he said others are also likely “all in line looking to get their hands on as much compute as their budgets allow.”

Another takeaway for Moore was the growth in physical AI, which refers to the use of the technology to power machines’ actions in the real world as opposed to within software.

At previous GTCs, Moore said physical AI “felt a little bit like speculative fiction.” But this year, “we are now hearing developers wrestling with tangible problems in the physical realm.”

Truist analyst William Stein, meanwhile, described physical AI as something that’s “starting to materialize.” The next wave for physical AI centers around robotics, he said, and presents a potential $50 trillion market for Nvidia.

Stein highliughted Jensen’s demonstration of Isaac GR00T N1, a customizable foundation model for humanoid robots.

Several analysts highlighted Huang’s explanation of what tariffs mean for Nvidia’s business.

“Management noted they have been preparing for such scenarios and are beginning to manufacture more onshore,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said. “It was mentioned that Nvidia is already utilizing [Taiwan Semiconductor’s’] Arizona fab where it is manufacturing production silicon.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Huang’s answer made it seem like Nvidia’s push to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. would limit the effect of higher tariffs.

Rasgon also noted that Huang brushed off concerns of a recession hurting customer spending. Huang argued that companies would first cut spending in the areas of their business that aren’t growing, Rasgon said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Thursday walked back comments he made in January, when he cast doubt on whether useful quantum computers would hit the market in the next 15 years.

At Nvidia’s “Quantum Day” event, part of the company’s annual GTC Conference, Huang admitted that his comments came out wrong.

“This is the first event in history where a company CEO invites all of the guests to explain why he was wrong,” Huang said.

In January, Huang sent quantum computing stocks reeling when he said 15 years was “on the early side” in considering how long it would be before the technology would be useful. He said at the time that 20 years was a timeframe that “a whole bunch of us would believe.”

In his opening comments on Thursday, Huang drew comparisons between pre-revenue quantum companies and Nvidia’s early days. He said it took over 20 years for Nvidia to build out its software and hardware business.

He also expressed surprise that his comments were able to move markets, and joked he didn’t know that certain quantum computing companies were publicly traded.

“How could a quantum computer company be public?” Huang said.

The event included panels with representatives from 12 quantum companies and startups. It represents a truce of sorts between Nvidia, which makes more traditional computers, and the quantum computing industry. Several quantum execs fired back at Nvidia after Huang’s earlier comments.

A third panel included representatives from Microsoft and Amazon Web Services, which are also investing in quantum technology and are among Nvidia’s most important customers.

Nvidia has another reason to embrace quantum. As quantum computers are being built, much of the research on them is done through simulators on powerful computers, like those that Nvidia sells.

It’s also possible that a quantum computer would require a traditional computer to operate it. Nvidia is working to provide the technology and software to integrate graphics processing units (GPUs) and quantum chips.

“Of course, quantum computing has the potential and all of our hopes that it will deliver extraordinary impact,” Huang said on Thursday. “But the technology is insanely complicated.”

Nvidia said this week that it will build a research center in Boston to allow quantum companies to collaborate with researchers at Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The center will include several racks of the company’s Blackwell AI servers.

Quantum computing has been a dream of physicists and mathematicians since the 1980s, when California Institute of Technology professor Richard Feynman first proposed the idea behind a quantum computer.

While classical computers use bits that are either 0 or 1, the bits inside a quantum computer — qubits — end up being on or off based on probability. Experts predict that the technology will be able to solve problems with massive amounts of possible solutions, such as deciphering codes, routing deliveries or simulating chemistry or weather.

No quantum computer has yet beat a computer at solving a real, useful problem. But Google claimed late last year that it discovered a way to do error correction.

One question at the panel centered around whether quantum computing might one day threaten companies like Nvidia that make computers based on transistors.

“A long time ago, somebody asked me, ‘So what’s accelerated computing good for?’” Huang said at the panel. Accelerated computing is a phrase he uses to refer to the kind of GPU computers that Nvidia makes.

“I said, a long time ago, because I was wrong, this is going to replace computers,” he said. “This is going to be the way computing is done, and and everything, everything is going to be better. And it turned out I was wrong.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

You already know about diversification. You’ve set your investment goals, picked a benchmark, and decided on the weighting of your allocations. Now, it’s come down to selecting the assets—stocks or ETFs—to build your portfolio.

As a long-term investor with moderate risk tolerance, how might you build a portfolio to withstand market drawdowns and weather the business cycle?

There are many ways to do this. Here are a few ideas to consider.

S&P Sectors: How Are They Performing and Where Are They Going?

FIGURE 1. RRG CHARTS OF S&P SECTOR ETFS RELATIVE TO THE S&P 500. This image shows you the one-year progression of each sector, indicating the stage of leadership they might be headed.

If you’re looking to diversify by sector, it helps to know where each one has been, performance-wise, and toward what state of leadership they might be entering. Which stocks are Improving, Leading, Weakening, and Lagging?

This is where RRG Charts (specifically RRG S&P 500 Sector ETFs) come in handy. By giving you a dynamic view of sector movement over time, RRGs can help you time your entries to match your strategy—whether you want to buy strength or take a more contrarian approach and buy weakness.

You might also want to view sectors in terms of relative performance. PerfCharts are a useful way to see how each sector is performing against other sectors.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF 11 S&P SECTORS. Sectors are sorted from outperforming (left) to underperforming (right).

PerfCharts show that over the past year, Utilities, Financials, and Communications Services have led the market, while Materials, Technology, and Health Care have lagged. If you were looking to shift your portfolio toward greater sector diversification, this chart would prompt a few questions:

  • Should you be overweight, underweight, or equal weight in your exposure to certain sectors?
  • Do you think the outperforming sectors will retain their leadership levels over the coming quarters, or are they overvalued?
  • Are the laggards undervalued, or might there be further downside in the long-term?

Combining RRG and PerfCharts can provide plenty of context for evaluating whether to enter, exit, or rebalance your positions.

From Sector to Industry to Individual Stocks

One question that’ll likely be on your mind is whether you should invest in individual stocks within a given sector or in a sector index ETF.

If you click the sector names in the Sector Summary tool, you can zoom in on the industries. Select the industry and you’ll get a list of all the stocks within that industry. The charts above tell you how the sectors are performing relative to one another.

If you decide to buy stocks for your sector allocation instead of sector ETFs, then you might want to know how a given stock is performing relative to its a) sector, b) industry, and c) a broader market benchmark like the S&P 500.

Here’s an example. Suppose you decide you want to invest in a stock in the Consumer Staples sector. You decide on Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) which has a high StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score. Take a look at this daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SFM. You want to see how SFM is performing against its sector, industry, along with the broader market.

Here are a few key points to note. Based on a one-year view…

  • The Consumer Staples sector (XLP) is underperforming its peers and the S&P 500 by around 4% (as shown in the PerfCharts example above).
  • However, SFM is outperforming its sector (XLP) by over 118%, its industry Food Retailers & Wholesalers ($DJUSFD) by over 104%, and the S&P 500 ($SPX) by over 107%.

If you’re seeking Consumer Staples exposure, should you invest in XLP for a potential turnaround or in SFM, a sector leader with strong momentum?

This is an example of only one way to employ a diversification strategy. You can diversify among stocks vs. bonds, growth vs. value stocks, or emerging vs. developed markets, and many more.

What About Rebalancing?

Market shifts can misalign your portfolio with your strategy, making periodic rebalancing essential for maintaining diversification.

Remember that diversification isn’t about managing and not eliminating risk. You might consider hedging strategies like options or alternative asset exposure like gold, commodities, or crypto during longer downturns. How often should you rebalance? It depends—some do it on a set schedule (every six months or a year), others adjust when allocations drift too far, or after major market events shake things up.

At the Close

Building a diversified portfolio takes a lot of planning, but it doesn’t have to be overly complicated. StockCharts gives you several tools to analyze, select, and build your portfolio. Use the tools to your advantage, and remember to stay flexible, as market conditions perpetually change, prompting you to rebalance from time to time.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

After reaching an all-time around $540 in mid-February, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dropped almost 14% to make a new swing low around $467. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouncing nicely this week, investors are struggling to differentiate between a bearish dead-cat bounce and a bullish full recovery.

There was no question that valuations had become incredibly rich going into the end of 2024, so some sort of corrective move was widely anticipated in Q1 2025. But was the February to March drawdown enough to appease the valuation trolls and empower investors to buy weakness to drive prices to further all-time highs? Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario. The goal of this example of “probabilistic analysis” is to expand our thinking of what’s possible, to break down our preconceived market biases, and to open our minds to alternative points of view.

Before we do so, though, I’d love to revisit the last time we conducted this exercise on the Nasdaq 100 back in December 2024.

Going into early January, it appeared that Scenario 4, the Super Bearish scenario, was matching very closely with market action. But a very choppy month of January kept prices fairly stable, and by the end of January the Nasdaq 100 was very close to the end of our Scenario 3.

Back to the current market environment, we’re thinking a Very Bullish Scenario would mean the QQQ continues the current uptrend, which eventually becomes a full recovery to retest the February 2025 high. On the other hand, if this week is really more of a dead cat bounce, then the Super Bearish Scenario could take us all the way down to retest the August 2024 lows.

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the QQQ continuing this week’s rally to retest the recent all-time high.

Scenario 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

I’ve heard plenty of calls that last week’s low was actually “the” low and the bottom is now in. But for the Nasdaq 100 to get all the way back up to $540, we would need to see a dramatic recovery in the Mag 7 names. Without a rally from the mega-cap growth trade, I don’t think it’s even possible for this sort of bull phase to play out.  Given the continued weakness in charts like META, I’d say this is a low probability.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Scenario 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if we do see a recovery in most sectors and themes outside the Mag 7 stocks? Scenario 2 would mean the QQQ can only get up to around $200, because without the biggest growth names participating the uptrend has limited momentum. Breadth conditions would definitely improve in this scenario, as stocks thrive on a decent Q1 earnings season.

Dave’s vote: 20%

Scenario 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

The two bearish scenarios would mean that the recent upswing starts to turn lower as renewed fears of inflation, geopolitical risk, and a weak earnings season all weigh on risk assets. A mildly bearish scenario means perhaps that we see some signs of optimism as investors begin to feel more familiar with the flurry of policy decisions from Washington. And even though we haven’t gained much ground by the end of April, it definitely feels as if the bear phase is limited.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Scenario 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

What if the flurry of policy decisions we’ve seen is just an appetizer, and the main course arrives in April? Given the global instability and economic concerns, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where the February to March drop was the first in a multi-wave decline that takes the QQQ back down to the August 2024 lows. This scenario seems like the most likely outcome based on the breadth and momentum deteriorations we’ve been tracking for months on our daily market recap show.

Dave’s vote: 45%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Klarna, the buy now, pay later lender that’s headed for an initial public offering, said on Thursday that it’s signed on DoorDash as a partner, another sign of momentum for public market investors.

It’s DoorDash’s first BNPL alliance and gives users of the restaurant delivery service a new way to pay for meals. Klarna said in a press release that DoorDash customers will be able to pay in full at checkout, split payments into four equal interest-free installments, or defer to dates that align conveniently with payday schedules.

Klarna, which is headquartered in Sweden, filed its prospectus last week to list on the New York Stock Exchange. Revenue last year increased 24% to $2.8 billion, and adjusted operating profit was $181 million, swinging from a loss of $49 million a year earlier. CNBC reported on Monday that Klarna will be the exclusive provider of buy now, pay later loans for Walmart, taking a coveted partnership away from rival Affirm.

“Our partnership with DoorDash marks an important milestone in Klarna’s expansion into everyday spending categories,” said David Sykes, Klarna’s chief commercial officer, in Thursday’s release.

Klarna, founded in 2005, said in its prospectus that it has 675,000 merchant partners in 26 countries. It’s among the most hotly anticipated IPOs of the year following an extended stretch of historically little activity for new offerings.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Investors have closely watched Nvidia’s week-long GPU Technology Conference (GTC) for news and updates from the dominant maker of chips that power artificial intelligence applications.

The event comes at a pivotal time for Nvidia shares. After two years of monster gains, the stock is down 15% over the past month and 22% below the January all-time high.

As part of the event, CEO Jensen Huang took questions from analysts on topics ranging from demand for its advanced Blackwell chips to the impact of Trump administration tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how Huang responded — and what analysts homed in on — during some of the most important questions:

Huang said he “underrepresented” demand in a slide that showed 3.6 million in estimated Blackwell shipments to the top four cloud service providers this year. While Huang acknowledged speculation regarding shrinking demand, he said the amount of computation needed for AI has “exploded” and that the four biggest cloud service clients remain “fully invested.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore noted that Huang’s commentary on Blackwell demand in data centers was the first-ever such disclosure.

“It was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to field questions related to Open AI related spending shifting from 1 of the 4 to another of the 4, or the pressure of ASICs, which come from these 4 customers,” Moore wrote to clients, referring to application-specific integrated circuits.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said the slide was “only scratching the surface” on demand. Beyond the four largest customers, he said others are also likely “all in line looking to get their hands on as much compute as their budgets allow.”

Another takeaway for Moore was the growth in physical AI, which refers to the use of the technology to power machines’ actions in the real world as opposed to within software.

At previous GTCs, Moore said physical AI “felt a little bit like speculative fiction.” But this year, “we are now hearing developers wrestling with tangible problems in the physical realm.”

Truist analyst William Stein, meanwhile, described physical AI as something that’s “starting to materialize.” The next wave for physical AI centers around robotics, he said, and presents a potential $50 trillion market for Nvidia.

Stein highliughted Jensen’s demonstration of Isaac GR00T N1, a customizable foundation model for humanoid robots.

Several analysts highlighted Huang’s explanation of what tariffs mean for Nvidia’s business.

“Management noted they have been preparing for such scenarios and are beginning to manufacture more onshore,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said. “It was mentioned that Nvidia is already utilizing [Taiwan Semiconductor’s’] Arizona fab where it is manufacturing production silicon.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Huang’s answer made it seem like Nvidia’s push to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. would limit the effect of higher tariffs.

Rasgon also noted that Huang brushed off concerns of a recession hurting customer spending. Huang argued that companies would first cut spending in the areas of their business that aren’t growing, Rasgon said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe breaks down a new SPX correction signal using the monthly Directional Lines (DI), showing why this pullback could take time to play out. He explains how DI lines influence the ADX slope and how this impacts shorter-term patterns. Joe also reveals a strong area in the commodity market defying the correction and highlights top stocks within that sector. Plus, he analyzes QQQ and IWM, covering their recent weakness and key resistance levels, before analyzing viewer symbol requests for the week, including ADMA, CSCO, and more.

This video was originally published on March 19, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The Metropolitan Transit Authority will stop selling and refilling those formerly-ubiquitous MetroCards by the end of the year in favor of the OMNY system, MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber told Crain’s New York Business Wednesday.

MetroCards have been around since 1994, but now seem destined to go the way of the subway token, which stopped being used in 2003.

MTA officials previously said they planned to say goodbye to MetroCards in 2027, but now have provided an estimated date when they will stop selling and filling the cards, and that’s at the end of 2025.

OMNY’s popular tap-and-go system has been around since 2019 and the service includes the ability to tap your phone to pay to purchase an OMNY tap card that passengers can buy and reload.

Commuters will still be able to use their existing MetroCards with whatever funds they have on them until sometime in 2027.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang downplayed the negative impact from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying there won’t be any significant damage in the short run.

“We’ve got a lot of AI to build … AI is the foundation, the operating system of every industry going forward. … We are enthusiastic about building in America,” Huang said Wednesday in a CNBC “Squawk on the Street” interview. “Partners are working with us to bring manufacturing here. In the near term, the impact of tariffs won’t be meaningful.”

Trump has launched a new trade war by imposing tariffs against Washington’s three biggest trading partners, drawing immediate responses from Mexico, Canada and China. Recently, Trump said he would not change his mind about enacting sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on other countries that put up trade barriers to U.S. goods. The White House said those tariffs are set to take effect April 2.

“We’re as enthusiastic about building in America as anybody,” Huang said. “We’ve been working with TSMC to get them ready for manufacturing chips here in the United States. We also have great partners like Foxconn and Wistron, who are working with us to bring manufacturing onshore, so long-term manufacturing onshore is going to be something very, very possible to do, and we’ll do it.”

Shares of Nvidia have fallen more than 20% from their record high reached in January. The stock suffered a massive sell-off earlier this year due to concerns sparked by Chinese artificial intelligence lab DeepSeek that companies could potentially get greater performance in AI on far-lower infrastructure costs. Huang has pushed back on that theory, saying DeepSeek popularized reasoning models that will need more chips.

Nvidia, which designs and manufactures graphics processing units that are essential to the AI boom, has been restricted from doing business in China due to export controls that were increased at the end of the Biden administration.

Huang previously said the company’s percentage of revenue in China has fallen by about half due to the export restrictions, adding that there are other competitive pressures in the country, including from Huawei.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS