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The domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a revenge-fueled gladiator.

Disney’s “Moana 2” is set to hit theaters Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million in box office receipts in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday. It’ll be joined by Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” both in their second week of domestic screenings.

Box-office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily clear $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second- or third-highest Thanksgiving period in cinematic history.

“The trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a bona fide perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.

“The holiday used to regularly see major releases combining for all-audience appeal, but that’s been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era so far,” he said. “This year is much different with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the biggest all-around box office results the holiday frame has ever seen.”

The Thanksgiving holiday haul hasn’t topped $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. Currently, the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is 2018′s slate, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which generated $315 million in ticket sales combined. The second-highest haul for the holiday period was the $294.2 million secured during the same five-day period in 2013.

“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the final few weeks of the year will determine the total annual box office revenue and its perception as either a win or a loss for the industry.”

Disney could use another animation win.

After ruling the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it’s failed to live up to expectations with its recent string of releases.

In 2016, “Moana” opened over the Thanksgiving holiday, generating $82.1 million. The following year “Coco” took in $72.9 million during its opening, and in 2018 “Ralph Breaks the Internet” tallied $84.8 million during its debut over the five-day period. Just before the pandemic in 2019, “Frozen II” added $125 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before to more than $130 million.

Meanwhile, “Encanto,” which arrived during the midst of the pandemic, managed to tally $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped, having scooped up just $18.9 million during the holiday period in 2022, and “Wish” snared a meager $31.6 million in 2023. No Disney animated film was released over Thanksgiving in 2020.

“Moana 2” should outperform these post-pandemic releases, however. It arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the top-streamed film aimed at kids and families. And audiences came out in droves for Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2″ over the summer. “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and tallied more than $1 billion globally during its full run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed “Wicked.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Reddit is ramping up efforts to attract more users outside of the U.S., putting countries like India and Brazil in focus as it looks to unlock new advertising opportunities, a top company executive told CNBC.

In a wide-ranging interview, Jen Wong, chief operating officer of Reddit, said other platforms have 80% to 90% of users outside of the U.S. while about half of her company’s current users are based internationally.

“So that points to a lot of our future user growth opportunity definitely outside of the U.S. and local language,” Wong told CNBC. “The opportunity, the way I think about it, is every language is an opportunity for another Reddit.”

Reddit has historically been an English-language platform, but the company is looking to expand its international reach with the help of artificial intelligence translations. This year, Reddit launched a feature that automatically translates its site into different languages.

Wong said that around 20 to 30 languages could be available by the end of the year.

Among the company’s fastest-growing markets in terms of users is the U.K., the Philippines, India and Brazil.

“India’s growing really rapidly,” Wong said. “We see a big opportunity in India.”

The Reddit COO said that India has a large English-speaking internet population, and there are lots of engaged users around topics like cricket and the Bollywood movie industry.

Wong also said Reddit has been meeting with “mods” — or moderators, who oversee content on communities on the site.

Growth in markets like India can propel Reddit to boost ad revenue, its main source of income.

International markets account for just over 17% of Reddit’s revenue currently, according to the company’s third-quarter results, despite around 50% of its users being located outside the U.S.

Wong said that Reddit first attempts cross-border advertising for international markets, such as when a European brand is looking to advertise in the U.S. Then, when Reddit hits about 10% of a country’s internet population in a country, there is an opportunity to build teams focused on local advertising — like an Indian brand advertising to Indian users.

This has not yet happened in many markets, but Reddit is keeping an eye on many of its fastest growing countries, Wong said.

Reddit users will know that it’s not always the easiest site to find what you’re looking for — a drawback that the company is now looking to change with new search tools.

During Reddit’s third-quarter earnings call last month, CEO Steve Huffman called search on the platform a “focused investment” in 2025.

Wong expanded that the company is thinking of its search feature as a way of helping users to navigate around the site to find similar topics or posts that they may have otherwise missed.

“You land on a post and but it’s almost like a dead end. But there are a lot of posts, often like that post, or there are other posts like that post in other communities. And so giving you a total view of what that looks like is a really interesting opportunity,” Wong said.

“Guiding you through Reddit as you follow that line of thinking, is how we think of the opportunity.”

Wong declined to say more except, “We’re testing a lot of things.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

On November 21, 2024, Citron Capital shorted MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR). What made this confrontation particularly electrifying was the clash between two titans: Citron, a legendary short seller, and MicroStrategy, arguably the strongest stock of 2024.

Why did Citron short MicroStrategy? Citron called its $91 billion valuation a reckless Bitcoin bubble. MSTR began buying Bitcoin in 2020; it currently owns 1.7% of the global Bitcoin supply and some analysts expect the company to own 4% by 2033. Citron viewed MSTR’s Bitcoin hoarding as a leveraged gamble that could implode if Bitcoin falters.

To see the impact of MSTR’s crypto trade, look at the correlation between the stocks and the crypto on a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF MICROSTRATEGY. The Correlation Coefficient in the bottom panel shows how MSTR strongly correlates with Bitcoin. MSTR has also outperformed the S&P 500 ($SPX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stellar rise in MSTR from a low of $43-and-change in January to a high of $543 in November has been anything but smooth and steady. MicroStrategy is a business analytics company that provides exposure to both AI and Bitcoin (due to its heavy accumulation). It’s like two trades in one. StockCharts’s Correlation Coefficient indicator shows how correlated MSTR is to $BTCUSD. You will want to keep an eye on this: if Bitcoin rises or falls, it will likely affect MSTR’s stock price.

You can also see MSTR’s relative performance against the S&P 500 ($SPX). Currently, it’s outperforming the broad index by over 300%. Overvalued and risky? That’s Citron’s take, and you can see the plunging effect of Citron’s thesis as it took action in the market.

Nevertheless, MSTR still ranks within the Top 10 of StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) report, its technical strength holding its measured position despite the big short and the risk it entails.

FIGURE 2. SCTR REPORT ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2024. MSTR is fourth from the top, with a SCTR score of 99.5.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If this remains true, might the stock experience a bounce, attracting prospective bulls to enter positions at perceived discount levels? If so, where? Let’s shift to a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF MSTR. Note how the swing points correspond cleanly with the Fibonacci Retracement lines.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Drawing Fibonacci Retracement levels from the August low to the November high, you can better contextualize the pullback to see where bullish investors may be looking for entry points. Note that I circled each level to highlight each potential support area.

One place that buyers may be looking for an early bounce is at the swing high point right above $380, which coincides with the Fib 38.2% retracement. While some buyers might have jumped in, that level may be too aggressive an entry as the price is looking to break below it. The next potential support levels are the swing low between $318 and $320, which converges with the Fib 50% line, and, below that, the October swing high near $267, which is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level.

Should any of these points trigger a bounce, check volume and buying pressure as a potential indicator for institutional support. Right now, if you look at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), you can see that sellers are firmly in control of the stock (see green circle). You will want to see that situation reverse, with the CMF line crossing above the zero line.

Your Next Action Steps

While watching these levels, do the following:

  • Add MSTR to your ChartLists. This ensures you can have the chart handy with all key levels when monitoring it.
  • Set a price alert for when the price crosses below $323. Once it crosses below this level, prepare for a potential bounce somewhere between $318 and $320. You could also set a second alert for when the price crosses above $375, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This could be an entry point for a potential upside move.
  • Also, keep an eye on the CMF; if there’s a bounce, you’ll want to see buyers taking control of the market.

This should give you ample time to observe and respond, assessing whether the technical context signals a buy or a wait-and-see. You can also check the fundamental story to see what’s happening with the stock, particularly if the technicals remain fuzzy.

At the Close

MicroStrategy’s meteoric rise in 2024, fueled by its double play on Bitcoin and AI, has made it a magnet for both bulls and skeptics. While Citron’s short position underscores bearish concerns about overvaluation and leverage risk, the stock’s technical strength and correlation with Bitcoin continue to attract bullish attention. Keep an eye on support levels and for any shift between buying/selling momentum. The technical levels above should map out the key areas to watch and key technical events to anticipate.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Kenneth Leech, the former co-chief investment officer of Western Asset Management Co, was charged by U.S. authorities on Monday with running a fraudulent “cherry-picking” scheme where he improperly favored some clients’ accounts over others when allocating trades.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said that between January 2021 and October 2023, Leech disproportionately allocated better performing trades to favored portfolios, and worse performing trades to other portfolios.

Leech also faces related criminal charges from the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan, the SEC said.

Lawyers for Leech did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The U.S. attorney’s office did not immediately respond to a similar request.

Western Asset Management, known as Wamco, is part of Franklin Resources, which acquired the business through its purchase of Legg Mason in 2020.

Clients have pulled tens of billions of dollars from Wamco in the last few months, after Franklin announced that authorities were investigating Leech.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Kohl’s is getting a new CEO, its third since 2018.

The off-mall department store’s current CEO Tom Kingsbury is stepping down effective Jan. 15. He will leave the position he held first on an interim basis starting in late 2022, and then permanently since early 2023.

Michaels CEO Ashley Buchanan will take over the top job at Kohl’s as Kingsbury departs, after leading the crafting retailer since 2020. Prior to his time at Michaels, Buchanan was at Walmart and its Sam’s Club division for 13 years.

Kohl’s shares fell about 3% in extended trading following the announcement.

At the world’s largest retailer, he held the roles of chief merchandising and chief operating officer for Walmart U.S. e-commerce and chief merchant at Sam’s Club before that. Buchanan is currently on the board of Macy’s, but will be stepping down from that role.

Kingsbury will remain with Kohl’s in an advisory role to Buchanan and stay on the board until he retires in May. Kohl’s doesn’t intend to replace Kingsbury and will reduce the board size by one seat.

Buchanan will step in just after the critical holidays end and as the retailer closes its fiscal year. There’s a lot of work to be done at a time when department stores are struggling to resonate with shoppers who have more options than ever before. While Kohl’s off-mall physical format has insulated it a bit more than other department stores, it has had a difficult several years.

Kohl’s shares fell 17% during Kingsbury’s interim period from Dec. 2, 2022 to Feb. 2, 2023 and then dropped a further 45% since. Kingsbury hasn’t been able to return sales to growth at Kohl’s. Its comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, have fallen for the past 10 quarters.

Kingsbury took over as CEO after Michelle Gass left Kohl’s to become president and then eventual CEO of Levi Strauss. Kingsbury had been a member of the Kohl’s board since 2021. He previously served as CEO of Burlington Stores from 2008 to 2019.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Abercrombie & Fitch isn’t giving up its crown anytime soon. 

The apparel company issued strong holiday guidance on Tuesday after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations. The recent arrest of the company’s former CEO, Mike Jeffries, on charges of sex trafficking did not appear to affect results.

Here’s how Abercrombie did in its fiscal third quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Nov. 2 was $131.98 million, or $2.50 per share, compared with $96.2 million, or $1.83 per share, a year earlier. 

Sales rose to $1.21 billion, up around 14% from $1.06 billion a year earlier. 

For the all-important holiday shopping quarter, Abercrombie is expecting sales growth of 5% to 7%, ahead of the 4.8% growth that analysts had expected, according to LSEG. For the full year, the company is expecting sales to rise between 14% and 15%, higher than the 12% to 13% range it previously anticipated. That new outlook is higher than the 12.1% growth analysts had expected, according to LSEG. 

Despite the better-than-expected guidance, Abercrombie shares dropped about 3% in premarket trading.

In a news release, CEO Fran Horowitz struck a positive note, leaving out the concerns she’d mentioned in the previous quarter about the “increasingly uncertain environment.” 

“With broad-based growth across regions and brands, we continue to execute at a high level, leveraging our regional playbooks and operating model. Each of our regions grew double-digits in the quarter, with the Americas growing 14%, EMEA growing 15% and APAC growing 32%,” said Horowitz.

The Abercrombie and Hollister brands posted comparable sales growth of 11% and 21%, respectively. Horowitz noted the strong performances lapped growth of 26% for Abercrombie and 7% for Hollister last year.

Under Horowitz’s direction, Abercrombie has become one of the retail industry’s biggest winners. As it laps the strong performance it posted last year, it’s continuing to build on those numbers.

To keep gaining momentum, Horowitz is looking to international markets for growth. Abercrombie has also gone into new categories, such as its wedding collection and recent partnership with the NFL. It’s also focused on developing its Hollister chain, which caters to Gen Z shoppers, and ensuring the brand is differentiated from Abercrombie, which caters to millennials. 

During the quarter, sales at Hollister were up 14%, accounting for nearly half of all revenue. 

As retailers gear up for Black Friday and the duration of the holiday shopping season, it appears as if some of the dim sentiment clouding the back half of the year has evaporated after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. 

For example, Abercrombie and Dick’s Sporting Goods — which both reported earnings on Tuesday — struck cautious tones when reporting earnings over the summer, but that sentiment was replaced with bullishness now that the election is over. 

Consumer sentiment has improved since Trump’s election and analysts are hopeful that certainty in the election results — regardless of who won — will be a boon for spending.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Amazon workers in more than 20 countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, plan to hold protests or go on strike between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, two of the marquee shopping promotions of the year, according to organizers.

The planned “Make Amazon Pay” demonstrations are intended to “hold Amazon accountable for labor abuses, environmental degradation and threats to democracy,” according to the initiative’s organizers, the Switzerland-based labor federation UNI Global Union and the grassroots activist group Progressive International.

“We stand united in demanding that Amazon treat its workers fairly, respect fundamental rights, and stop undermining the systems meant to protect us all. ‘Make Amazon Pay Day’ is becoming a global act of resistance against Amazon’s abuse of power,” said Christy Hoffman, general secretary of UNI Global Union.

In a statement, Amazon spokeswoman Eileen Hards said: “These groups represent a variety of interests, and while we’re always listening and looking at ways to improve, we remain proud of the competitive pay, comprehensive benefits, and engaging, safe work experience we provide our teams.”

The two strike organizers said unions and allied groups are planning to hold demonstrations in the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, Japan, Brazil, Turkey and other nations. In at least six German towns, thousands of Amazon workers are set to strike. In New Delhi, hundreds of Amazon workers are expected to rally to demand fair treatment.

The planned “global day of resistance” comes as labor leaders around the world feel increasingly emboldened to take on large corporations in an era of income inequality. The International Labour Organization, an arm of the United Nations, found that post-pandemic inflation and the rising cost of living have been eroding the real value of minimum wages in many countries.

In recent years, American labor activists have increasingly trained their ire on Amazon and the shopping behemoth’s billionaire founder, Jeff Bezos. The results have been mixed. In early 2022, an Amazon facility in Staten Island, New York, became the first company warehouse to vote to form a union. But similar union drives in Alabama and at least two others in New York failed.

It was not immediately clear how many Amazon workers in the U.S. would participate in the announced demonstrations against the Seattle-based company, one of the leading e-commerce and digital technology firms in the world.

“Amazon is everywhere, but so are we,” said Varsha Gandikota-Nellutla, co-general coordinator of Progressive International. “By uniting our movements across borders, we can not only force Amazon to change its ways, but lay the foundations of a world that prioritizes human dignity, not Jeff Bezos’ bank balance.”

UNI Global Union and Progressive International said that this is the fifth year of “Make Amazon Pay” activities. In previous years, according to the groups, thousands of workers went on strike at company facilities in Germany, France, Spain, the U.K. and Italy.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Many U.S. retailers are hoping to put the fall quarter behind them. The decisive outcome of this month’s presidential election, which showed a GOP sweep, seems to be giving them the fuel to do so.

On Tuesday, Best Buy reported one of its worst three-month stretches of the past decade, something CEO Corie Barry blamed in part on the ‘distraction’ of the presidential contest, alongside an overall more uncertain macroeconomic environment.

But she said the company has begun to see holiday sales momentum now that the vote is over — with particular demand for computers, tablets and sales in its services department.

“We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is also willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is new, compelling technology,” Barry said in a release.

Best Buy’s latest results — representing its worst quarterly profit ‘miss’ of estimates in more than a decade — capture the uncertain environment most retailers are experiencing.

While consumers are still grappling with higher prices on everyday items and groceries, surveys and commentary suggest any uncertainty brought about by the election has lifted over the past couple of weeks.

Gallup’s monthly Economic Confidence Index survey saw a nine-point jump this month compared with October. Although the report still shows most Americans believe economic conditions are ‘getting worse’ overall, the current reading of -17 is the best since a -12 reading in August 2021.

The improvement was driven by a six-percentage-point drop in ‘poor’ ratings, while 36% of survey respondents said the economy is getting better, compared with 32%% in October. Overall, 55% said it’s getting worse — down from 62% last month.

Gallup’s survey was conducted between Nov. 6 and Nov. 20.

The index’s improvements were heavily partisan: Republicans’ scoring of the economy soared 29 points during the survey period, while Democrats’ dropped 10 points — though notably, Democrats still hold a net positive rating of the economy compared with both Republicans and independents.

A separate monthly consumer-confidence report released Tuesday also surged to its highest level in nearly 18 months, with optimism about family finances over the next six months hitting a new all-time high.

The widely followed survey from The Conference Board, a business nonprofit, also saw the lowest proportion of consumers anticipating a recession in more than two years, while inflation expectations fell to the lowest measure since March 2020. Job availability expectations, meanwhile, reached their highest level in almost three years.

Among those expecting stronger holiday sales Tuesday was Abercrombie & Fitch, which continues to see a sales renaissance. The trendy apparel chain now expects holiday quarter sales growth of 5% to 7%, ahead of the 4.8% growth that analysts had expected, CNBC reported. It also lifted its sales growth guidance for the full year.

Burlington likewise noted a strong start to holiday sales in a Tuesday earnings release, with the outerwear retailer stating it was ‘optimistic’ about its prospects for the upcoming quarter, while maintaining a ‘cautious’ outlook overall.

The sunnier if still cautious outlook is resonating on Wall Street: According to CNBC, a retail-focused stock-tracker traded on the New York Stock Exchange is up 10% month to date and is heading for its best month since February.

Last week, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve announced its quarterly survey of dozens of economic forecasters now showed the U.S. economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.2% in the coming three months, and 1.9% in the first quarter of 2025. That’s up from the predictions of 1.7 percent in the last survey.

‘The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago,’ it said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Today Carl looks at the small-caps and mid-caps that have now begun to outperform the market. Clearly the rally is broadening, the question now is can we continue to make new all-time highs. It does seem very likely especially given the positive outlook on the Secretary of Treasury nomination.

Carl reviews the signal tables and discusses which sectors/groups are getting ready to see signal changes. He also looks at the equilibrium of the Bias Table that suggests half of the sectors/groups/indexes have bearish biases despite the market reaching new all-time highs.

Carl also takes us through the Magnificent Seven charts where we see some of the stocks setting up bearishly, but many are still showing bullish biases.

Erin covers sector rotation with a review of all of the sectors in Candleglance to see which are lining up for breakouts and which are showing signs of distress.

The pair finish with a look at viewer symbol requests including Home Builders, TSEM and SMCI.

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01:10 DP Signal Tables

03:20 Market Rally Broadens

04:06 Market Overview

10:32 Magnificent Seven

18:58 Questions (Energy and the Dollar among others)

24:04 Sector Rotation Discussion

32:30 Symbols Requests


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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