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If you receive more Social Security benefits than you are owed, you may face a 100% default withholding rate from your monthly checks once a new policy goes into effect.

The change announced last week by the Social Security Administration marks a reversal from a 10% default withholding rate that was put in place last year after some beneficiaries received letters demanding immediate repayments for sums that were sometimes tens of thousands of dollars.

The discrepancy — called overpayments — happens when Social Security beneficiaries receive more money than they are owed.

The erroneous payment amounts may occur when beneficiaries fail to report to the Social Security Administration changes in their circumstances that may affect their benefits, according to a 2024 Congressional Research Service report. Overpayments can also happen if the agency does not process the information promptly or due to errors in the way data was entered, how a policy was applied or in the administrative process, according to the report.

The Social Security Administration paid about $6.5 billion in retirement and disability benefit overpayments in fiscal year 2022, which represents 0.5% of total benefits paid, the Congressional Research Service said in its 2024 report. The agency also paid about $4.6 billion in overpayments for Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, benefits in that year, or about 8% of total benefits paid.

The Social Security Administration recovered about $4.9 billion in Social Security and SSI overpayments in fiscal year 2023. However, the agency had about $23 billion in uncollected overpayments at the end of the 2023 fiscal year, according to the Congressional Research Service.

By defaulting to a 100% withholding rate for overpayments, the Social Security Administration said it may recover about $7 billion in the next decade. 

“We have the significant responsibility to be good stewards of the trust funds for the American people,” Lee Dudek, acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration, said in a statement. “It is our duty to revise the overpayment repayment policy back to full withholding, as it was during the Obama administration and first Trump administration, to properly safeguard taxpayer funds.”

The new 100% withholding rate will apply to new overpayments of Social Security benefits, according to the agency. The withholding rate for SSI overpayments will remain at 10%.

Social Security beneficiaries who are overpaid benefits after March 27 will automatically be subject to the new 100% withholding rate.

Individuals affected will have the right to appeal both the overpayment decision and the amount, according to the agency. They may also ask for a waiver of the overpayment, if either they cannot afford to pay the money back or if they believe they are not at fault. While an initial appeal or waiver is pending, the agency will not require repayment.

Beneficiaries who cannot afford to fully repay the Social Security Administration may also request a lower recovery rate either by calling the agency or visiting their local office.

For beneficiaries who had an overpayment before March 27, the withholding rate will stay the same and no action is required, the agency said.

The new overpayment policy goes into effect about one year after former Social Security Commissioner Martin O’Malley implemented a 10% default withholding rate.

The change was prompted by financial struggles some beneficiaries faced in repaying large sums to the Social Security Administration.

At a March 2024 Senate committee hearing, O’Malley called the policy of intercepting 100% of a benefit check “clawback cruelty.”

At the same hearing, Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Georgia, recalled how one constituent who was overpaid $58,000 could not afford to pay her rent after the Social Security Administration reduced her monthly checks.

Following the Social Security Administration’s announcement that it will return to 100% as the default withholding rate, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare said it is concerned the agency may be more susceptible to overpayment errors as it cuts staff.

“This action, ostensibly taken to cut costs at SSA, needlessly punishes beneficiaries who receive overpayment notices — usually through no fault of their own,” the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, an advocacy organization, said in a statement.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Tesla’s selloff on Wall Street intensified on Monday, with shares of the electric vehicle maker plunging 15%, their worst day on the market since September 2020.

On Friday, Tesla wrapped up a seventh straight week of losses, its longest losing streak since debuting on the Nasdaq in 2010. The stock has fallen every week since CEO Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C., to take on a major role in the second Trump White House.

Since peaking at $479.86 on Dec. 17, Tesla shares have lost over 50% of their value, wiping out over $800 billion in market cap. Monday marked the stock’s seventh worst day on record.

Tesla led a broader slump in U.S. equities, with the Nasdaq tumbling almost 4%, its steepest decline since 2022.

The downdraft in Tesla’s stock on Monday was tied to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s plans on tariffs. Canada and Mexico are key markets for automotive suppliers, and increased tariffs, with the potential for a trade war, will likely impact production and lead to higher prices.

Tesla is also dealing with brand erosion due to Musk’s incendiary political rhetoric and his extensive work with the Trump administration, where he’s leading up the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, has become the public face of the administration’s effort to dramatically shrink the federal government’s workforce, spending and capacity.

Meanwhile, Musk has used his social network X to level accusations against judges whose decisions he didn’t like and promoted false Kremlin talking points about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Activists and former Musk fans have protested at Tesla facilities throughout the U.S., and Tesla vehicles and facilities have been the apparent targets of vandalism and arson attempts. Repeated arson attempts and instances of vandalism occurred at a Tesla store and service center in Loveland, Colorado, most recently on March 7, police told CNBC.

Ben Kallo, an analyst at Baird, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday that recent reports of vandalism could hurt demand.

“When people’s cars are in jeopardy of being keyed or set on fire out there, even people who support Musk or are indifferent Musk might think twice about buying a Tesla,” Kallo said.

Analysts at Bank of America’s wrote in a report on Monday that Tesla new vehicle sales plummeted by about 50% in Europe in January from a year earlier, partly owing to growing distaste for the brand. The firm also noted that some prospective customers are waiting for the new version of the Model Y.

Tesla’s Model Y, which is a small SUV, remained the best-selling battery electric vehicle globally in January. It was followed by China’s Geely Geome, which surpassed the Tesla Model 3 sedan for the month.

Global sales of electric vehicles, including fully electric and plug-in hybrid models, increased 21% in January from a year ago, even as Tesla’s sales declined. The growth was driven by demand in Europe, according to Bank of America.

— CNBC’s Jesse Pound contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Three separate outages appeared to hit Elon Musk’s X social media site Monday as he claimed it was suffering a ‘massive cyberattack.’

Downdetector.com first registered thousands of reports of trouble accessing or using the site around 5:30 a.m. ET. It took about an hour before those issues subsided.

Then, around 9:30 a.m., the issues appeared to flare up again, with as many as 40,000 outage reports detected. It again took about an hour for that incident to dissipate.

Finally, around 11:10 a.m., the issues cropped up again, according to Downdetector.

A representative for X couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

Musk said Monday afternoon on X that there had been a ‘massive cyberattack’ against the site.

‘We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved,” he said. He didn’t post any evidence of a cyberattack.

Experts said the outage was consistent with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, a rudimentary but sometimes effective hacker tactic to overwhelm a website with traffic, effectively knocking it offline.

Isik Mater, the director of research at NetBlocks, a company that tracks global internet connectivity, told NBC News that X had suffered intermittent outages since Monday morning. While establishing a DDoS attack with certainty can be difficult, Mater said, Musk’s claim was plausible.

“It’s difficult to be certain, but given the pattern of three observed outages, a denial [of] service attack targeting X’s infrastructure can’t be ruled out,” she said. “It’s certainly one of the longest X/Twitter outages in our records.”

Musk said in an interview Monday afternoon on Fox Business that the outage was due to “a massive cyberattack to try to bring down the X system with IP addresses originating in the Ukraine area,” a reference to internet protocol addresses. IP addresses, strings of numbers assigned to all internet-connected devices, include codes indicating their countries of origin.

Large DDoS attacks usually rely on large armies of hacked devices from around the world. The IP addresses of the devices used against X aren’t public, and they are unlikely to be a reliable indication of where the attacker was based.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Things heated up this week on , featuring interviews with Kristina Hooper of Invesco, Keith Fitz-Gerald of The Fitz-Gerald Group, and Jordan Kimmel of Magnet Investing Insights!


Now that 5850 has been clearly violated to the downside, though, it’s all about the 200-day moving average, which both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 tested this week. Friday’s rally kept the SPX just above its 200-day moving average, which means next week we’ll be looking for a potential break below this important trend-following mechanism.

Fibonacci Retracements Suggests Downside to 5500

But what if we apply a Fibonacci framework to the last big upswing during the previous bull phase? Using the August 2024 low and December 2024 high, that results in a 38.2% retracement level at 5722, almost precisely at the 200-day moving average. So now we have a “confluence of support” right at this week’s price range.

If next week sees the S&P 500 push below the 5700 level, that would mean a violation of moving average and Fibonacci support, and suggest much further downside potential for the equity benchmarks.  Using that same Fibonacci framework, I’m looking at the 61.8% retracement level around 5500 as a reasonable downside target.  With the limited pullbacks over the last two years, most finding support no more than 10% below the previous high, a breakdown of this magnitude would feel like a true bear market rotation for many investors.

Supporting Evidence from Newer Dow Theory

So, despite rotating to more defensive positioning in anticipation of a breakdown, what other tools and techniques can we use to validate a new bear phase in the days and weeks to come? An updated version of Charles Dow’s foundational work, what I call “Newer Dow Theory”, could serve as a confirmation of a negative outcome for stocks.

Charles Dow used the Dow Industrials and Dow Railroads to define the trends for the two main pillars of the US economy, the producers of goods and the distributors of goods. For our modern service-oriented economy, I like to use the equal-weighted S&P 500 to represent the “old economy” stocks and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 to gauge the “new economy” names.

We can see a clear bearish non-confirmation last month, with the QQQE breaking to a new 52-week high while the RSP failed to do so. This often occurs toward the end of a bullish phase, and can represent an exhaustion point for buyers. Now we see both ETFs testing their swing lows from January. If both of these prices break to a new 2025 low in the weeks to come, that would generate a confirmed bearish signal from Newer Dow Theory, and imply that the bearish targets outlined above are most likely to be reached.

Many investors are treating this recent drawdown as yet another garden variety pullback within a bull market phase. And while we would be as happy as ever to declare a full recovery for the S&P 500, its failure to hold the 200-day moving average next week could be a nail in the coffin for the great bull market of 2024.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The far-right frontrunner in Romania’s presidential vote has been barred from running in May’s election, in an explosive decision that sparked violence on the streets of Bucharest and came despite pressure from Washington to “listen” to voters’ demands.

After a 10-4 vote, the country’s electoral bureau (BEC) said Sunday it was invalidating Calin Georgescu’s candidacy due to his “failure to comply with the electoral regulations.”

The decision came just over a week after Romanian prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Georgescu, accusing him of crimes such as attempting to subvert the constitutional order and establishing a fascist organization. When Georgescu left the courthouse where he was questioned last month, he made what many interpreted to be a Nazi salute to his supporters outside.

The BEC ruling will outrage Georgescu’s supporters in Romania and come as a boon to Moscow and members of the Trump administration, who have singled out Romania as a chief agent of democratic backsliding in Europe.

Despite being virtually unknown before Romania’s annulled presidential election last year, Georgescu – a 62-year-old former soil scientist who opposes aid to Ukraine and has expressed sympathy for Romania’s fascist leaders from the 20th century – has won widespread support in the Eastern European country and become a cause célèbre on the American right.

Georgescu won the first round of the election in November, but the country’s constitutional court voided the result after declassified intelligence reports uncovered possible Russian interference in Georgescu’s TikTok-fueled campaign. A re-run is scheduled for May, and polls show that Georgescu was on track to win a plurality of votes.

The decision to annul November’s election had little precedent and handed a propaganda victory to Moscow, which has long dismissed Western democracy as a sham in which elites fix the results to suppress unorthodox views and guarantee an outcome favorable to the liberal establishment.

This rhetoric has also begun to be echoed in Washington. In February, US Vice President JD Vance told a stunned audience at the Munich Security Conference that Romania’s decision to cancel the election “based on the flimsy suspicions of an intelligence agency” was evidence of Europe’s “threat from within.”

“If your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with,” Vance said.

Georgescu said the BEC’s decision to bar him showed that “Europe is now a dictatorship” and that “Romania is under tyranny.” Elon Musk, who has also expressed support for far-right parties in Germany, said: “This is crazy.”

Georgescu’s supporters descended on the BEC headquarters on Sunday evening, with some throwing Molotov cocktails. At least 13 members of Romania’s Gendarmerie security force were injured in subsequent clashes, Antena 3 reported.

George Simion, chair of the right-wing Alliance for Romania (AUR) party, said in a video on social media that the BEC members who voted against Georgescu’s candidacy should be “skinned in the public square,” according to Antena 3. Other AUR members have since tried to walk back his statement.

If Georgescu chooses to challenge the BEC’s decision before a Monday evening deadline, Romania’s constitutional court would then consider his appeal.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A fake plan to attack on a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives was fabricated by an organized crime network in order to divert police resources, Australian police said on Monday.

Authorities in January found explosives in a caravan, or trailer, that could have created a blast wave of 40 meters (130 feet), along with the address of a Sydney synagogue.

But police on Monday said the discovery was part of a “criminal con job,” with the ease with which the caravan was found along with the lack of a detonator suggesting there was never any intent to attack Jewish targets.

“The caravan was never going to cause a mass casualty event but instead was concocted by criminals who wanted to cause fear for personal benefit,” Krissy Barrett, the Australian Federal Police’s Deputy Commissioner for National Security, told a news conference.

“Almost immediately, experienced investigators… believed that the caravan was part of a fabricated terrorism plot – essentially a criminal con job.”

Police are yet to make any arrests in relation to the planning of the fabricated plot, but have gone public with the information in order to provide comfort to the Jewish community in Sydney, Dave Hudson, New South Wales Police Deputy Commissioner, told the news conference.

“It was about causing chaos within the community, causing threat, causing angst, diverting police resources away from their day jobs, to have them focus on matters that would allow them to get up to or engage in other criminal activity,” Hudson said.

Police are investigating a suspect involved in an organized crime network, he added.

Australia has suffered a spate of antisemitic attacks in recent months, with homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles targeted by vandalism and arson, drawing the ire of the country’s traditional ally Israel.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A blonde whippet from Italy with soulful eyes and tiger-like markings won the overall prize at Crufts, the world’s biggest dog show, on Sunday.

Miuccia, who is 4 years old, became the first Italian dog to win the coveted Best in Show prize at the event in Birmingham, England – an accolade that left her handler, Giovanni Liguori, overwhelmed with emotion.

“It’s really a dream come true, I am truly overwhelmed. Miuccia performed her best, I felt her very relaxed on the leash, so I’m super-, super-happy,” Liguori told British broadcaster Channel 4 afterward.

“I absolutely adore her, she’s fantastic, the sweetest dog, she always wants to be super-close to me and that’s the most important thing. It’s incredible, it’s amazing, as Italians we are super-proud.”

Miuccia became the fourth whippet to win the prize and saw off competition from more than 18,000 dogs gathered at Birmingham’s National Exhibition Centre for four days of competition.

A Tibetan Mastiff from Romania named Viking finished in second place, becoming the first of his breed to make it to that stage of the competition.

First held in 1891, Crufts has become one of the most famous international shows of its kind, attracting dogs from all over the world. Around six times as many dogs compete at Crufts as at the Westminster Dog Show, the famed US competition held in New York every year.

Those dogs competing for the Best in Show award qualify for the final if they win one of the seven preliminary rounds that come before it, where they are grouped with other similar dogs.

And as well as the famous dog-showing competition, there are opportunities for dogs to showcase their agility and obedience skills.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An oil tanker and a cargo ship have collided off the northeastern coast of England, causing a huge fire and prompting an emergency response from the British coastguard.

The coastguard said it has sent a helicopter and lifeboats from nearby towns, as well as “vessels with fire-fighting capability,” to respond to the incident.

The Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) said it had sent four lifeboat crews to respond the incident and that it was aware of “reports that a number of people had abandoned the vessels following a collision and there were fires on both ships.”

The incident is believed to involve a US-flagged tanker called the Stena Immaculate, and a container ship called the Solong – which is sailing under the flag of Madeira, an autonomous region of Portugal – according to the ship tracking tool VesselFinder.

The Stena Immaculate, which is managed by the United States logistics firm Crowley, is part of a fleet of 10 tankers involved in a US government program to supply its military with fuel. The Department of Defense’s “Tanker Security Program,” according to Crowley, “ensures a commercial fleet can readily transport liquid fuel supplies in times of need.”

A flurry of high-speed ships and a tugboat were seen moving towards the site of the collision at the time of the coastguard’s rescue operation, real-time data from VesselFinder showed.

The Solong left the Scottish port of Grangemouth on Sunday evening and was headed for Rotterdam, the Netherlands, according to VesselFinder. The Stena Immaculate was at anchor off the coast near the city of Hull after traveling from the Greek port of Agioi Theodoroi last month.

The alarm was raised at 9:48 a.m. local time (5.48 a.m. ET) and the incident “remains ongoing,” the coastguard said.

“The current focus is on the firefighting and search and rescue operation. In due course a full marine casualty investigation report should be submitted to the International Maritime Organization,” it said.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia has revoked the accreditation of two British diplomats over alleged intelligence activities, the Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on Monday, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic rebukes that was quickly dismissed by London as “baseless.”

The men “intentionally provided false information” when they received permission to enter Russia, which violated Russian law, and the service discovered “signs of carrying out intelligence and subversive work by the said diplomats that threatens the security of the Russian Federation,” an FSB statement said.

The pair were ordered to leave Russia within two weeks. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned a representative of the British embassy today and a “strong protest” was expressed to him, it said.

“A warning was also made that if London escalates the situation, the Russian side will give a decisive ‘mirror’ response,” the Russian ministry’s statement said.

But Moscow and London have been trading diplomatic barbs for years, particularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 poisoned relations between the two countries.

Russia expelled several British diplomats last year: in September it sent six home, accusing them of spying, and in November it returned a further diplomat after it “identified signs of his conducting intelligence and subversive work.” In each case, Britain has dismissed the allegations.

More broadly, Russia claimed last year that Britain’s Foreign Office had transformed since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine into a body whose “main task is to inflict a strategic defeat on our country.”

And it has banned hundreds of British political and media figures from entering the country.

Russia often makes diplomatic moves at crucial junctures in the war in Ukraine. This week, a Ukrainian delegation will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with US counterparts to negotiate an end to the conflict; Britain recently hosted a European summit aimed at finding a path forward that Kyiv and Europe can agree on.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Things heated up this week on , featuring interviews with Kristina Hooper of Invesco, Keith Fitz-Gerald of The Fitz-Gerald Group, and Jordan Kimmel of Magnet Investing Insights!


Now that 5850 has been clearly violated to the downside, though, it’s all about the 200-day moving average, which both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 tested this week. Friday’s rally kept the SPX just above its 200-day moving average, which means next week we’ll be looking for a potential break below this important trend-following mechanism.

Fibonacci Retracements Suggests Downside to 5500

But what if we apply a Fibonacci framework to the last big upswing during the previous bull phase? Using the August 2024 low and December 2024 high, that results in a 38.2% retracement level at 5722, almost precisely at the 200-day moving average. So now we have a “confluence of support” right at this week’s price range.

If next week sees the S&P 500 push below the 5700 level, that would mean a violation of moving average and Fibonacci support, and suggest much further downside potential for the equity benchmarks.  Using that same Fibonacci framework, I’m looking at the 61.8% retracement level around 5500 as a reasonable downside target.  With the limited pullbacks over the last two years, most finding support no more than 10% below the previous high, a breakdown of this magnitude would feel like a true bear market rotation for many investors.

Supporting Evidence from Newer Dow Theory

So, despite rotating to more defensive positioning in anticipation of a breakdown, what other tools and techniques can we use to validate a new bear phase in the days and weeks to come? An updated version of Charles Dow’s foundational work, what I call “Newer Dow Theory”, could serve as a confirmation of a negative outcome for stocks.

Charles Dow used the Dow Industrials and Dow Railroads to define the trends for the two main pillars of the US economy, the producers of goods and the distributors of goods. For our modern service-oriented economy, I like to use the equal-weighted S&P 500 to represent the “old economy” stocks and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 to gauge the “new economy” names.

We can see a clear bearish non-confirmation last month, with the QQQE breaking to a new 52-week high while the RSP failed to do so. This often occurs toward the end of a bullish phase, and can represent an exhaustion point for buyers. Now we see both ETFs testing their swing lows from January. If both of these prices break to a new 2025 low in the weeks to come, that would generate a confirmed bearish signal from Newer Dow Theory, and imply that the bearish targets outlined above are most likely to be reached.

Many investors are treating this recent drawdown as yet another garden variety pullback within a bull market phase. And while we would be as happy as ever to declare a full recovery for the S&P 500, its failure to hold the 200-day moving average next week could be a nail in the coffin for the great bull market of 2024.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.